EPAC: Tropical Depression Julio

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Julio is not giving up. New warnings in an area that doesn't normally get warnings, i.e. the northern GOC coast of Mainland Mexico.

593
WTPZ41 KNHC 251446
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008
800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2008

THE CENTER OF JULIO REMAINS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS
MORNING. AN 0934 UTC AMSRE-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT
THE CENTER WAS OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND EARLY MORNING VISIBLE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER LIKELY REMAINS OVER LAND. THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS...BUT WE WILL MAINTAIN JULIO AS A TROPICAL
STORM GIVEN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE.

THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/12. JULIO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO
PREDICT A DECREASE IN JULIO'S FORWARD MOTION AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF JULIO MAY CONTINUE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
LEFT BEHIND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK SLOWS JULIO DOWN AND KEEPS THE CENTER
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE NHC TRACK IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

SINCE THE CENTER OF JULIO MAY MOVE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS
JULIO AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR 12 HOURS. DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE
CENTER MAY BE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE
GLOBAL MODES PREDICT INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN
JULIO. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT JULIO COULD REMAIN A TROPICAL
STORM IN THE SHORT-TERM OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND HAS ISSUED
A NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MOISTURE FROM JULIO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
RAINFALL OVER THAT REGION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 26.8N 112.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 28.1N 112.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 29.1N 113.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 29.7N 113.3W 25 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 30.1N 113.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 28/1200Z 30.3N 113.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

This will become more possible as the Gulf of Califorina is slowly growing wider. I would not be suprized in a few thousand years cyclones will be moving up there a lot more as it grows wider. Of course I will be dead.

It could be one day a interesting area to track cyclones.

It still looks good, in fact I would say closer to 45 knots.

[bob rulz]

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
405 am MDT Monday Aug 25 2008

A broad low-amplitude upper ridge will develop across the eastern
Pacific through the Great Basin for the latter half of the week.
Will have to watch closely the tropical system currently over southern
Baja California. The latest GFS and European model (ecmwf) do show this moisture working into
the desert SW late in the week...then surging north through the western
Great Basin Friday and beyond. Have introduced convection into the
extended forecast...though have not gone wild with it even though
the moisture is of tropical origin.

[cycloneye]

112
WTPZ31 KNHC 251746
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2008

...JULIO MOVING NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM LORETO TO BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES ON THE EAST COAST...AND FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
FROM GUAYMAS TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST OR ABOUT 15
MILES... 25 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO.

JULIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF JULIO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
BE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND
JULIO COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM UNOFFICIAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

JULIO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES POSSIBLE. MOISTURE FROM JULIO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...POSSIBLY
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...27.1 N...112.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/avn-l.jpg

A rare centeral gulf of Califorina tropical storm!!!

[KWT]

Yep threading the needle, its been reupgrading to a tropical storm as well I believe.

[bob rulz]

Yep threading the needle, its been reupgrading to a tropical storm as well I believe.

?? It was never downgraded.

[HURAKAN]

[RL3AO]

Too bad the Northern Gulf of California was a little warmer. Maybe it could make it into California or Arizona as a depression.

[Aslkahuna]

First off, storms on tracks like this are not all that rare-we get at least one every year. The climo average for EPAC remnant lows that enter AZ with a circulation with an intensity of up to TD is about 1 per year and every few years or so we will get one that comes in as a strong TD or TS. Water temperatures in the northern Sea of Cortez are plenty warm this time of year being well into the mid to upper 80's. The problem for storms entering the Sea of Cortez is that it's a narrow body of water with some hefty mountains to the west in Baja and desert to the east so land interactions weaken the storms. The storms that have made the biggest impact in terms of wind have for the most part been fast movers like Kathleen in 1976 (G76 mph in Yuma), Katrina in 1967 (G59 mph in Yuma with the storm well to the east), Joanne in 1972, Nora in 1997 (G60 in Yuma) and Lester in 1992 (G78 mph in Sierra Vista). A Kathleen type track in a strong ENSO warm phase year with the storm coming ashore near Ensenada and coming into the Imperial Valley is the best case scenario for an EPAC hurricane hit in SoCA/AZ if the storm is initially strong enough and moving fast enough. So far, in the history of European settlement in SoCA and AZ (which goes back over 240 years) there has been only one hurricane hit from EPAC but TS hits as far north as Los Angeles and TDs a bit further north.

Steve

[cycloneye]

260256
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008
800 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2008

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL AND MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED...
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HUGGING THE COASTLINE OF
EAST-CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB NO LONGER SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND...THEREFORE...
JULIO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JULIO HAS DECREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS
DECOUPLING AND IT IS NO LONGER A DEEP SYSTEM. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG OR
NEAR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS IT GETS DRAWN INTO THE
BROADER CYCLONIC GYRE OF A THERMAL LOW OVER THE REGION. THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY DIVERGENT AFTER 24 HOURS...SUGGESTING THAT
STEERING CURRENTS WILL COLLAPSE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND
TERRAIN INTERACTION...AND JULIO SHOULD STEADILY SPIN DOWN AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM JULIO WILL STILL CREATE A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...AND
THAT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER
THAT REGION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 28.0N 112.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 28.8N 112.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 29.4N 113.2W 25 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 29.8N 113.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 28/0000Z 29.9N 113.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 29/0000Z...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/RHOME

[Ad Novoxium]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 260838
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS BECOME
LESS DEFINED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS PRACTICALLY VANISHED. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. AT THIS TIME WE ARE KEEPING THE
CYCLONE AS A 25 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION...BUT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWARD ABOUT 3 TO 5 KNOTS UNTIL DISSIPATION LATER TODAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0900Z 28.8N 113.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 29.5N 113.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 27/0600Z 30.0N 113.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 27/1800Z...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

(Shortest non-final advisory for a weakening tropical depression?)

[Ad Novoxium]

And to put an axe to it and end it before getting on to other storms:
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 261438
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2008

JULIO LACKS ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IS THEREFORE DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT
LOW. THIS REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO.

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE DISSIPATING
CYCLONE IS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS FEW
FIXES. INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 350/4 AND A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH JULIO'S REMNANTS HAVE
SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON JULIO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 28.4N 112.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 29.0N 112.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 27/1200Z 29.7N 112.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 28/0000Z...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]