ATL GUSTAV: HPC Advisories

[cycloneye]

WTNT22 KNHC 251439
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2008

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER OF HAITI.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
HAITI FROM NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 70.1W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 70.1W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 69.6W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.5N 71.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.6N 72.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.8N 73.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.7N 74.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 22.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 70.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



Storm2k Moderator



Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 11:54 am
Posts: 55245
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico WTNT32 KNHC 251438
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER OF HAITI.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
HAITI FROM NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN THE CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS
NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES...415 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER SOUTHWESTERN HAITI ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 7 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE INTENSE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...15.5 N...70.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 251439
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING IN THE
CARIBBEAN. WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM.
ANALYSIS OF DIRECTIONAL AMBIGUITIES FROM A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS
INDICATED A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. THEREFORE WE ARE
INITIATING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. AN SSM/IS
IMAGE FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO DEPICTED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AT THE 91
GHZ FREQUENCY...BUT IT WAS NOT EVIDENT ON THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL.
SINCE THE LATTER CHANNEL IS MORE SENSITIVE TO THE LOWER-LEVELS...
THIS EYE-LIKE FEATURE WAS PRIMARILY ALOFT. INTERESTINGLY
HOWEVER...THE GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES ALSO SHOW A RELATIVELY CLEAR
AREA NEAR THE CENTER THAT RESEMBLES AN EYE. OUR INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 30 KT BASED ON AN EARLIER REPORT
FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42059. OBSERVATIONS FROM AN UPCOMING AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SHOULD GIVE UPDATED INFORMATION ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED OVER
ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. CURIOUSLY...THE GFS HAS FAILED
TO PREDICT DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE THUS FAR.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 305/13 ALTHOUGH RECENT IMAGES SUGGEST THAT
THE MOTION MAY BE A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THIS VALUE. THERE IS AN
UNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD TO OUR TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SEEMS TO BE
THE RESULT OF TWO PRIMARY SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE MOTION OF THE
SYSTEM. ONE WOULD BE A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK INTO A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS IS
DEPICTED BY THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. A SECOND SCENARIO IS
FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO BEND MORE WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER FLORIDA...AND THAT IS DEPICTED BY THE
BAM TRACKS...THE HWRF...AND THE GFDL. OUR FIRST OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST SOMEWHAT SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BUT LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER
SCENARIO. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS NOT HIGH...PARTICULARLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

THIS FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
AND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 15.5N 70.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 16.5N 71.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 17.6N 72.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 18.8N 73.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 19.7N 74.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 21.0N 75.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 22.0N 77.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 30/1200Z 22.5N 78.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[Chacor]

I believe the wind probabilities advisory is one advisory that is often overlooked, but actually provides important data on the probability of certain locations experiencing gale/storm/hurricane force winds.

Code: Select all

814
FONT12 KNHC 251439
PWSAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008               
1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2008                                           
                                                                   
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                             
                                                                   
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                 
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                   
                                                                   
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE               
                                                                   
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.             
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                   
                                                                   
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -     
                                                                   
VALID TIME   00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       3       5       6      10      13      17
TROP DEPRESSION 22      15      19      16      17      12      15
TROPICAL STORM  76      73      63      54      48      41      39
HURRICANE        2       9      12      24      25      34      30
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       8      10      20      19      24      20
HUR CAT 2        X       1       2       3       4       7       7
HUR CAT 3        1       1       X       1       2       3       2
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       1       1
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    50KT    50KT    55KT    55KT    60KT    60KT
                                                                   
                                                                   
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                   
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                   
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING           
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)         
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)     
                                                                   
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                 
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                 
                                                                   
                                                                   
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - - 
                                                                   
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                   
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                   
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
MIAMI FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   5(13)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
MARCO ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
FT MYERS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   4(14)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  10(16)   6(22)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)  11(20)   5(25)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  13(18)  10(28)   3(31)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  10(14)   8(22)   2(24)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)  11(24)   4(28)   2(30)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   6(12)   6(18)   2(20)   2(22)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   4(13)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   8(22)   3(25)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
CAMAGUEY       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   2( 2)   8(10)  16(26)   9(35)   5(40)   2(42)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   1(12)   1(13)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   4(13)   2(15)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   6(12)   2(14)   2(16)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
LES CAYES      34  X  10(10)  20(30)   7(37)   5(42)   1(43)   1(44)
LES CAYES      50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   1(12)
LES CAYES      64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  1  24(25)  19(44)   3(47)   4(51)   1(52)   1(53)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   3( 3)   8(11)   1(12)   1(13)   1(14)   X(14)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  9  39(48)   5(53)   2(55)   X(55)   1(56)   1(57)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   7( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   1(11)   X(11)
CAPE BEATA     64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   4( 4)   6(10)   3(13)   4(17)   2(19)   1(20)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  2   5( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   2(12)   1(13)   1(14)
 
$$                                                                 
FORECASTER PASCH


[cycloneye]

WTNT62 KNHC 251803

TCUAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS STRENGTHENED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM
GUSTAV WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR. A SPECIAL
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES TO UPDATE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HISPANIOLA.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

...CARIBBEAN DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM...

AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
A HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 2 PM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CHANGED
TO A HURRICANE WATCH FOR HAITI FROM NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL STORM.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST OR ABOUT 225
MILES...365 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL BE MOVING
NEAR OR OVER SOUTHWESTERN HAITI ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE PRIOR TO
MOVING OVER LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE INTENSE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...15.8 N...70.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1800 UTC MON AUG 25 2008

AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
A HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CHANGED
TO A HURRICANE WATCH FOR HAITI FROM NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 70.5W AT 25/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 70.5W AT 25/1800Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 69.6W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.5N 71.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.6N 72.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.8N 73.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.7N 74.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 22.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 70.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

THIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO UPGRADE THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL
STORM GUSTAV WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 50 KT...AND TO CHANGE THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING AND WATCH
FOR HISPANIOLA. THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED...HOWEVER THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER
INITIAL INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1800Z 15.8N 70.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 16.5N 71.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 17.6N 72.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 18.8N 73.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 19.7N 74.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 21.0N 75.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 22.0N 77.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 30/1200Z 22.5N 78.0W 60 KT

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF
HAITI...AND FOR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM NORTH OF
PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF BARAHONA TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF BARAHONA TO SANTO
DOMINGO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 71.0W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 71.0W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 70.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.2N 72.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.4N 73.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 25NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.4N 74.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.2N 75.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.3N 77.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 22.0N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 23.0N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 71.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

NNNN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

...GUSTAV MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD HISPANIOLA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF
HAITI...AND FOR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM NORTH OF
PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF BARAHONA TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF BARAHONA TO SANTO
DOMINGO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT 180
MILES...290 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL BE MOVING
NEAR OR OVER HAITI ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
GUSTAV COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO MOVING OVER LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE INTENSE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...16.3 N...71.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[caneseddy]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 252036
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

AFTER ITS RATHER RAPID INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION EARLIER TODAY...THE
CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV HAS BECOME A LITTLE
RAGGED-LOOKING...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE CENTER. THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A VERY SMALL AREA OF STRONG WINDS JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED
OF 67 KT. USING A 75 PERCENT RATIO OF SURFACE TO FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS APPROPRIATE FOR THE 925 MB FLIGHT ALTITUDE GIVES 50 KT FOR
THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE. ASSUMING THE CURRENTLY LESS-ORGANIZED
APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE IS MERELY TEMPORARY...STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY GIVEN THE APPARENTLY FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL AND OCEANIC
CONDITIONS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE STRENGTH OF GUSTAV
WILL OBVIOUSLY BE A STRONG FUNCTION OF HOW MUCH THE CIRCULATION
INTERACTS WITH LAND. INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO FAIL TO
SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND THE U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL
MODEL SHOWS WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...315/12. THE
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR
FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STEERING CURRENTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE MOTION OF GUSTAV TO
GRADUALLY BEND TOWARD THE LEFT AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN BY THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE TO THE
LEFT OF THIS NHC FORECAST. NOTE THAT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS...AND ONE SHOULD
NOT FOCUS ON THESE PRECISE POINTS.

THE WIND RADII WERE DECREASED A LITTLE SINCE THE AIRCRAFT
OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT GUSTAV IS A LITTLE SMALLER THAN EARLIER
ESTIMATED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 16.3N 71.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.2N 72.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.4N 73.3W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 27/0600Z 19.4N 74.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 20.2N 75.5W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 28/1800Z 21.3N 77.5W 55 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 29/1800Z 22.0N 79.0W 50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 30/1800Z 23.0N 81.0W 50 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

...GUSTAV CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD HISPANIOLA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF
HAITI...AND FOR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM NORTH OF
PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF BARAHONA TO SANTO DOMINGO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES...270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL BE MOVING
NEAR OR OVER HAITI ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
GUSTAV COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO MOVING OVER LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE INTENSE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...16.4 N...71.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2008

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED FROM
PORT AU PRINCE HAITI NORTHWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST
NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF BARAHONA TO SANTO DOMINGO.

INTERESTS IN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 71.4W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 90SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 71.4W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 71.2W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.5N 72.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.5N 73.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.3N 75.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.8N 76.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 21.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 23.0N 83.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 71.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

...GUSTAV STRENGTHENS...ALMOST A HURRICANE...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED FROM
PORT AU PRINCE HAITI NORTHWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST
NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF BARAHONA TO SANTO DOMINGO.

INTERESTS IN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF HAITI TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
AND GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE INTENSE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...16.6 N...71.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND A THICKENING EYEWALL. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS AT 00Z WERE T3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB BUT THE
STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED SINCE THEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 60 KT AND THE NEXT AIRCRAFT AT 06Z WILL MOST LIKELY
FIND A HURRICANE. A MICROWAVE PASS AT 2243Z SHOWED A LOW-LEVEL
EYEWALL. GIVEN THIS STRUCTURE...AND A SHIPS RI INDEX WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV REACHING HAITI. AFTER THAT...THE INTENSITY OF
GUSTAV WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW MUCH THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS
WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HAITI AND CUBA. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT...WHILE NOT ANTICYCLONIC...IS AT LEAST
DIFLUENT AND OF LIGHT SHEAR. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK INDICATES
MORE TIME OVER WATER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT THAT. BOTH THE
GFDL AND THE HWRF SHOW GUSTAV AVOIDING NEARLY ALL OF CUBA AND HAVE
GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE IN FIVE DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LARGELY
IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT
IN A SLOWING OF GUSTAV'S FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE LEFT.
EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS KEEP GUSTAV
SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT MOST OF THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE IS EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 16.6N 71.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 17.5N 72.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 18.5N 73.9W 80 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 27/1200Z 19.3N 75.1W 75 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 19.8N 76.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 20.5N 78.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 30/0000Z 21.5N 80.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 31/0000Z 23.0N 83.5W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[JonathanBelles]

What happened to the graphic? lol

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 260552
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

...GUSTAV MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OF HAITI...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
CURRENTLY APPROACHING...

AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM EAST OF BARAHONA TO SANTO
DOMINGO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST
NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST OR ABOUT 130
MILES...210 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF HAITI LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND GUSTAV IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE INTENSE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...16.8 N...71.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[SouthFLTropics]

000
WTNT22 KNHC 260848
TCMAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
0900 UTC TUE AUG 26 2008

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. ALSO THE
GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST
NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 71.9W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 71.9W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 71.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.0N 72.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.8N 74.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.2N 75.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.4N 76.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.0N 79.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 21.0N 82.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 23.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 71.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[SouthFLTropics]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 260849
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION HAS FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 90 KT...PEAK SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 76 KT...AND A RECENT
ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 984 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
CONSERVATIVELY RAISED TO 75 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN ORGANIZING
PATTERN WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BECOMING MORE PROMINENT AND
GUSTAV IS LIKELY NOT DONE INTENSIFYING BEFORE IT PASSES OVER
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI LATER TODAY. SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN 24 HR
DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION WITH HAITI. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE
IS FORECAST TO BE OVER EXTREMELY WARM WATERS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED AND NOW CALLS
FOR GUSTAV TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE GFDL/HWRF FORECAST SHOW AN
EVEN STRONGER HURRICANE. MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT GUSTAV WILL BE
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IN A FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/8...THOUGH GUSTAV MAY RECENTLY BE
MOVING A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO NOTE THIS
MORNING IS A DRAMATIC SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT WITH ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE.
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST AWAY FROM GUSTAV...LEAVING RIDGING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
THE HURRICANE WILL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN WEST IN A DAY
OR SO DUE TO THIS BUILDING RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND 24 HR BUT IS STILL ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE FORECAST COULD HAVE BEEN
SHIFTED EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT BUT WE'D PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL THE
GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0900Z 17.2N 71.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 18.0N 72.9W 85 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 18.8N 74.3W 75 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 19.2N 75.6W 80 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 19.4N 76.9W 85 KT
72HR VT 29/0600Z 20.0N 79.3W 90 KT
96HR VT 30/0600Z 21.0N 82.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 31/0600Z 23.0N 85.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[SouthFLTropics]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 260848
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

...GUSTAV STRENGTHENING SOUTH OF HAITI...SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL LATER
TODAY...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. ALSO THE
GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST
NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...
160 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 300 MILES
...480 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK THIS HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI LATER TODAY AND NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF CUBA ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN HAITI LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AS REPORTED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE INTENSE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...17.2 N...71.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[Evil Jeremy]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 261147
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

...GUSTAV A LITTLE STRONGER...NEARING THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST
NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A
HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...
125 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 265 MILES
...425 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK THIS HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI LATER TODAY AND NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN CUBA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN HAITI LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...17.5 N...72.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[gatorcane]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 261442
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

...GUSTAV APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...
SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST
NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
80 KM...SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 240 MILES...390 KM
...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
FORECAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK THIS HURRICANE SHOULD
MOVE OVER SOUTHWESTERN HAITI LATER TODAY AND NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN CUBA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE...AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER
MOVES OVER LAND TODAY. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY WHEN GUSTAV MOVES
OVER HAITI...HOWEVER RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS THE CENTER
APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.9 N...72.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[butch]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 261743
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

...GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST
NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA
OF HAITI ABOUT 10 MILES...16 KM...WEST OF JACMEL...SHORTLY AFTER
100 PM EDT...1700 UTC.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
JUST INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST OR ABOUT
40 MILES...60 KM...SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 190
MILES...310 KM ...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
FORECAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK THIS HURRICANE SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI LATER TODAY AND NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY WHILE GUSTAV MOVES OVER HAITI...
HOWEVER RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS THE CENTER APPROACHES
EASTERN CUBA ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.2 N...72.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN

[Brent]

HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
2100 UTC TUE AUG 26 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST
NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 73.2W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 73.2W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 72.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.9N 74.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.3N 75.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.5N 76.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.6N 78.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.3N 81.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 22.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 25.5N 88.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 73.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

...GUSTAV MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST
NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.2 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...
95 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 180 MILES
...290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE SHOULD
MOVE BACK OVER WATER TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF
HAITI TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY
WHILE THE CENTER IS OVER LAND...BUT RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN WHEN THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...18.4 N...73.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...ON
WHICH THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE BECAME EVIDENT...INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL AROUND 1730 UTC. A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 992 MB WAS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT JUST AS THE CENTER MOVED
INLAND...HOWEVER A DROPSONDE RELEASED JUST EAST OF THE EYE HAD A
SURFACE PRESSURE OF 997 MB WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 64 KT. SO THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE MAY HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN 992 MB. IN ANY
EVENT...NOW THAT THE CENTER IS MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
OF THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI...GUSTAV IS LIKELY LOSING
STRENGTH. THE EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES...AND
THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY TONIGHT. HOWEVER
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
WITH ONLY A LITTLE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND THEREFORE GUSTAV
IS LIKELY TO REGAIN STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...HWRF...AND GFDL GUIDANCE AND IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE
RECALLED THAT BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND MODEL FORECASTS OF INTENSITY HAVE
LITTLE SKILL IN THE 3- TO 5-DAY RANGE.

INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 305/9. THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE STEERING
PATTERN FOR GUSTAV CONTINUES TO BE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE/HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE'S HEADING SHOULD GRADUALLY BEND TOWARD THE LEFT AS IT MOVES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE. LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND OVERALL THE
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
PACKAGE. THEREFORE THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS
ESSENTIALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 18.4N 73.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 18.9N 74.0W 75 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 19.3N 75.2W 80 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 19.5N 76.6W 85 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 19.6N 78.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 20.3N 81.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 22.5N 85.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 31/1800Z 25.5N 88.5W 105 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[butch]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 262039
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

...GUSTAV MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST
NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.2 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...
95 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 180 MILES
...290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE SHOULD
MOVE BACK OVER WATER TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF
HAITI TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY
WHILE THE CENTER IS OVER LAND...BUT RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN WHEN THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...18.4 N...73.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

...GUSTAV STILL A HURRICANE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI...
...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF HISPANIOLA...

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 8 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST
NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED...BASED ON IMAGES FROM THE RADAR AT GRAN PIEDRA CUBA...TO
BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES...100 KM...WEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 155
MILES...250 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...AND A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...HURRICANE GUSTAV SHOULD PASS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN
CUBA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS MOVING BACK OVER WATER AND IS STILL A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS GUSTAV INTERACTS WITH LAND...BUT
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WHEN THE CENTER EMERGES OVER
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...18.5 N...73.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN