ATL GUSTAV: HPC Advisories

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GUSTAV MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA THIS MORNING.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE OF VILLA CLARA. THIS WATCH AND WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD
TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 485
MILES...780 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WHILE GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED DURING ITS PASSAGE OVER CUBA...IT
IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY AFTER
THAT TIME...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE
THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM. A NOAA C-MAN OBSERVATION SITE AT PULASKI SHOAL IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 56 MPH...91
KM/HR...WITH GUSTS TO 62 MPH...100 KM/HR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AS ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER OBSERVATIONS IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN
CUBA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV
PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN FLORIDA. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV MAY BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...23.5 N...84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

[Thunder44]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 310857
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER....AND
FROM WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR CUBA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 425 MILES...
680 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...GUSTAV WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY...AND MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY...BUT
GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.

GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 18 TO 25 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS
GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTION OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ABOUT AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER
TODAY.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...24.2 N...85.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH




000
WTNT42 KNHC 310857
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

APPARENTLY...THE INTERACTION WITH WESTERN CUBA TOOK MORE OF A TOLL
ON THE HURRICANE THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED. DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED WITH MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 112 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 98 KT...AND A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 958 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES CONFIRM THIS WEAKENING
TREND AS THE EYE NO LONGER VISIBLE. AIRCRAFT AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS
ALSO INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS EXPANDED TO AROUND 25 N MI IN
DIAMETER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KT...AND GUSTAV
MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WEAKER FOR THE MOMENT. HOWEVER THIS WEAKENING
IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE HURRICANE TRAVERSES THE
RELATIVELY HIGH HEAT CONTENT OF THE GULF LOOP CURRENT. BEYOND 24
HOURS...THE HEAT CONTENT DECREASES AND MOST MODELS INCREASE THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR GUSTAV DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. IN ADDITION...NONE OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING OF GUSTAV...ALTHOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE
SKILL OF THESE MODELS IS RATHER LOW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE EARLIER ONE...BUT STILL SHOWS GUSTAV
AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

BASED UPON AIRCRAFT DATA AND RADAR FIXES FROM KEY WEST...GUSTAV IS
MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHWEST AND ITS MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT
320/14. THE LARGE-SCALE STEERING PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
WELL-DEFINED...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES PROVIDING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO THE
HURRICANE. A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT IS ANTICIPATED AS GUSTAV
NEARS THE COAST DUE TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COMING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL TRACK FORECAST BUT CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT TRACK OF GUSTAV AS THIS IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

BASED ON THIS FORECAST...IT IS NOW TIME TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0900Z 24.2N 85.0W 110 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 25.6N 86.3W 120 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 27.5N 88.4W 125 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 29.1N 90.4W 115 KT...NEAR COAST
48HR VT 02/0600Z 30.5N 92.2W 75 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 03/0600Z 31.7N 93.7W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 04/0600Z 32.0N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/0600Z 32.0N 95.5W 20 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 311435
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GUSTAV CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER....AND FROM WEST OF
CAMERON LOUISIANA TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES...
520 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON FORECAST TRACK...GUSTAV
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY THEREAFTER...BUT
GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.

GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA
BUOY 42003 RECENTLY REPORTED 8-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 54 MPH... 86
KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 67 MPH...108 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 12 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS
GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTION OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ABOUT AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...25.3 N...86.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

WTNT22 KNHC 311431
TCMAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1500 UTC SUN AUG 31 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER....AND FROM WEST OF
CAMERON LOUISIANA TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 86.0W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT.......120NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT.......175NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 300SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 86.0W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 85.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 27.0N 87.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 28.6N 89.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.0N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 130SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.1N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 32.0N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 32.0N 95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 32.0N 95.9W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 86.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 311457
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

GUSTAV CONTINUES TO LOOK SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN SATELLITE APPEARANCE
THIS MORNING. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS VERY ASYMMETRIC...WITH THE
COLD TOPS DUE MAINLY TO ONE HOT TOWER IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL.
WHILE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS APPARENT...IT IS DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED CENTER. THE LATEST REPORT FROM
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO
962 MB...ALONG WITH AN ELLIPTICAL 30 BY 20 N MI WIDE EYE OPEN TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT...AND THIS
MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/15. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK...WITH A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER
GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE NEW
GUIDANCE RUNS SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD
SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS SHIFT YET...AND THUS LIES NEAR
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER 48-72 HR...THERE IS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO
THE WESTERLIES...STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS...OR TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD. SINCE THIS KIND OF SPREAD FREQUENTLY PRECEDES SLOW
MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
AFTER 72 HR.

AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS THAT GUSTAV REMAINS IN 15 TO 20 KT OF
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR....AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST AT
LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL
LANDFALL. THAT...COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT RAGGED STORM STRUCTURE
AND THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE STORM IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...SUGGESTS ANY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW.
ADDITIONALLY..GUSTAV IS OVER A WARM EDDY IN THE LOOP CURRENT
NOW...AND SHOULD PASS OVER WATERS WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL. THE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THESE FACTORS
BY FORECASTING MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HR...WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KT AND THE
OTHER MODELS ABOUT 110 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL CALL FOR GUSTAV TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 115 KT IN 12 TO 24 HR...AND
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
GUSTAV SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 25.3N 86.0W 105 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 27.0N 87.7W 115 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 28.6N 89.7W 115 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 30.0N 91.5W 85 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 02/1200Z 31.1N 93.0W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 03/1200Z 32.0N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 04/1200Z 32.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/1200Z 32.0N 95.9W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
100 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GUSTAV WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER....AND FROM WEST OF
CAMERON LOUISIANA TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS EXCEPT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES...
520 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON FORECAST TRACK...GUSTAV
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE TO DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY
FOUR STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
LIKELY THEREAFTER...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.

GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA
BUOY 42003 RECENTLY REPORTED 8-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 60 MPH...
97 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 78 MPH...126 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 12 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS
GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTION OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ABOUT AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...25.9 N...86.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GUSTAV MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED WESTWARD
ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
TEXAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH
ISLAND EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY
OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES...
350 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
GUSTAV SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY THEREAFTER...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...100 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220
MILES...350 KM. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
ONTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
STARTING TO SPREAD ONSHORE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN
THE DRY TORTUGAS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTION OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ABOUT AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...26.4 N...87.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
2100 UTC SUN AUG 31 2008

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED WESTWARD
ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
TEXAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH
ISLAND EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY
OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 87.3W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 55NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT.......120NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT.......190NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 250SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 87.3W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 86.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.9N 88.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 29.4N 90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 30.7N 92.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 125SE 125SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.5N 93.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 32.0N 95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 32.0N 96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 32.0N 96.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 87.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 312052
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SUGGESTS
THAT GUSTAV IS GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A HINT OF
AN EYE RETURNING. ADDITIONALLY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS FALLEN TO 957 MB. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 105 KT WHILE
THE MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS WERE 93 KT. ALSO...THE CONVECTION...WHILE
VIGOROUS...IS STILL RATHER ASYMMETRIC AROUND THE 30 NM WIDE EYE
THAT IS OPEN TO THE SE. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 315 AND 320 DEGREES AT 15-16
KT...WITH 320/16 BEING THE ADVISORY MOTION. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...WITH A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER
GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE NEW
GUIDANCE RUNS...MOST NOTABLY THE HWRF...SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN
AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE
LOUISIANA COAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND SINCE IT LIES NEAR THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SOME ADDITIONAL SMALL SHIFTS MAY BE
NECESSARY LATER. AFTER 48-72 HR...THERE REMAINS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO
THE WESTERLIES...SHEAR APART AND STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS...OR
TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR FOLLOWS THE
SHEAR-APART-AND-STALL SCENARIO...CALLING FOR GUSTAV TO MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS OVER LAND.

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV REMAINS IN ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR...WITH A LOT OF
MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE CYCLONE. THE EYE HAS MOVED NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP WARM WATER
OF THE LOOP CURRENT...AND THAT COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
CONTINUED SHEAR REDUCES THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS NO STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...WHILE
THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST ABOUT 10 KT OF STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE
FALLING PRESSURES AND THE COLD CONVECTION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 110 KT BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH GUSTAV
MAKING LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. GUSTAV SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
LANDFALL AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 120 HR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 26.4N 87.3W 100 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 27.9N 88.9W 110 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 29.4N 90.9W 100 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 02/0600Z 30.7N 92.7W 60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 02/1800Z 31.5N 93.9W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 03/1800Z 32.0N 95.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 04/1800Z 32.0N 96.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/1800Z 32.0N 96.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
700 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GUSTAV CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ABOUT
TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH
ISLAND EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY
OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...
280 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 260 MILES...415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...27 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
GUSTAV SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TONIGHT...AND GUSTAV IS
FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220
MILES...350 KM. DATA FROM HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE AREA COVERED BY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAS EXPANDED...
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF GUSTAV. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ABOUT TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA...
AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN
THE DRY TORTUGAS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...26.9 N...87.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

392
WTNT22 KNHC 010251
TCMAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
0300 UTC MON SEP 01 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 88.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
34 KT.......190NE 175SE 140SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 250SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 88.1W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 87.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 28.6N 89.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 175SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.1N 91.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 175SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.1N 93.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 125SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 31.8N 94.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 32.0N 95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 32.0N 95.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 32.0N 96.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 88.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 010257
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GUSTAV BECAME MORE SYMMETRIC EARLIER
IN THE EVENING AND WAS GIVING THE IMPRESSION OF INCREASING
ORGANIZATION. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN
SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CORE CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...WHICH HAD BEEN FALLING...SEEMS TO HAVE
STABILIZED WITH THE MOST RECENT ESTIMATE BEING 954 MB. FLIGHT LEVEL
AND SFMR DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL
AROUND 100 KT...WITH A PEAK SMFR WIND OF 100 KT JUST OBSERVED A FEW
MINUTES AGO...AND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 114 KT. THE SFMR DATA
ALSO INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED...
SPREADING OUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER A LARGER AREA. DROPSONDE
DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT ALSO SHOW SOME DRIER AIR
BETWEEN 300 AND 500 MB WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE CENTER OF GUSTAV
FROM THE SOUTH. THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LANDFALL INTENSITY OF
GUSTAV WILL LIKELY BE NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM ITS CURRENT CATEGORY
THREE STRENGTH. NONE OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS...THE
GFDL...HWRF...SHIPS...AND LGEM SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN THE REMAINING
TIME GUSTAV HAS OVER WATER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/14. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THAT SHOWS GUSTAV MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE NEW FORECAST IS JUST ABOUT RIGHT ON TOP OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE. AFTER THAT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE...THE MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY. AS BEFORE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE MOTION AFTER 72 HOURS IN THE EXPECTATION
THAT GUSTAV WILL SHEAR OFF...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 27.3N 88.1W 100 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 28.6N 89.9W 105 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 30.1N 91.9W 85 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 02/1200Z 31.1N 93.3W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 03/0000Z 31.8N 94.3W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 04/0000Z 32.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 05/0000Z 32.0N 95.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/0000Z 32.0N 96.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
100 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SPREADING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AS GUSTAV NEARS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY
OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.8 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...
275 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 255
MILES...410 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. THIS POSITION
IS ALSO ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT FOURCHON ALONG
THE LOUISIANA COAST.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WOULD REACH THE LOUISIANA
COAST BY MIDDAY TODAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES...350 KM.
BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 50 MPH...80
KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE COAST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY.

REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...27.8 N...88.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
400 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

...GUSTAV NEARING THE LOUISIANA COAST...HEAVY RAIN BANDS APPROACHING
NEW ORLEANS...

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER HAS BEEN
CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE
MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...
185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 195
MILES...315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. THIS POSITION IS
ALSO ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT FOURCHON ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COAST.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST BY MIDDAY TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE
LANDFALL...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER GUSTAV MOVES
INLAND LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM. BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 70
MPH...113 KM/HR...AND A STATION AT SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 76 MPH...122 KM/HR WITH A GUST OF 108
MPH...174 KM/HR AT AN ELEVATION OF 79 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE COAST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...28.4 N...89.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 600 AM CDT AND 800 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
0900 UTC MON SEP 01 2008

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER HAS BEEN
CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE
MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 89.5W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT.......200NE 175SE 140SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 89.5W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 88.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 29.5N 91.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...125NE 175SE 140SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 30.7N 92.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 125SE 125SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.4N 93.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 31.8N 94.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 32.0N 95.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 32.0N 96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 32.0N 96.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 89.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[Thunder44]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 010915
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT GUSTAV IS NOT STRENGTHENING. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN
SLIGHTLY AND...BASED ON RECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WIND
MEASUREMENTS...100 KT IS A GENEROUS ESTIMATE FOR THE CURRENT
INTENSITY. WSR-88D RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE WALL IS OPEN
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...PERHAPS DUE TO THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTH THAT WAS DISCUSSED
EARLIER. IN FACT...THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS DID NOT REPORT
AN EYEWALL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS A DRY INTRUSION AND
A RESTRICTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE HURRICANE. ALSO THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A BIT MORE
RAGGED ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE PICTURES. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST...NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
STRENGTH APPEARS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

GUSTAV CONTINUES MOVING BRISKLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...315/14. THE
HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE/HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE HIGH WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AND THEREFORE GUSTAV'S FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY TO SLOW
LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW...I.E. AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND.
THE STEERING PATTERN BECOMES ILL-DEFINED LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND THE TRACK MODELS BECOME HIGHLY DIVERGENT. IF GUSTAV
REMAINED A VERTICALLY-COHERENT CYCLONE IT WOULD PROBABLY RESPOND TO
AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
PART OF GUSTAV WILL BE SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND IN THE EAST TEXAS AREA. THAT IS
BASICALLY WHAT WE ARE INDICATING IN THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
WHICH SHOWS GUSTAV OR ITS REMNANTS SLOWING TO A CRAWL IN DAYS 3 TO
5. SUCH SLOW MOTION WOULD EXACERBATE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND
INLAND FLOODING.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 28.4N 89.5W 100 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 29.5N 91.1W 100 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 02/0600Z 30.7N 92.8W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 02/1800Z 31.4N 93.9W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 03/0600Z 31.8N 94.7W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 04/0600Z 32.0N 95.5W 20 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 05/0600Z 32.0N 96.0W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/0600Z 32.0N 96.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Thunder44]

...Eye of Gustav nearing the Louisiana coast...hurricane force winds
over portions of southeastern Louisiana...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from just east of High Island
Texas eastward to the Mississippi-Alabama border...including the
city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. Preparations to protect
life and property should have been completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from east of the
Mississippi-Alabama border to the Ochlockonee River.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 600 am CDT...1100z...the center of Hurricane Gustav was located
near latitude 28.8 north...longitude 90.1 west or about 85 miles...
135 km...south of New Orleans Louisiana and about 150 miles...240
km...southeast of Lafayette Louisiana. This position is also about
20 miles...35 km...south-southeast of Port Fourchon along the
Louisiana coast.

Gustav is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr...and
this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so with some
decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn toward the west-
northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track...the center will
cross the Louisiana coast by midday today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph...185 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Gustav is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. No significant change in strength is likely before
landfall...with weakening expected to begin after Gustav moves
inland later today.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230
miles...370 km. A wind gust to 63 mph...102 km/hr...was recently
reported at New Orleans Naval Air Station.

Minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA hurricane hunter
aircraft observations is 954 mb...28.17 inches.

An extremely dangerous storm surge of 10 to 14 feet above normal
tidal levels is expected near and to the east of where the center
of Gustav crosses the coast.

Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to
12 inches over portions of Louisiana...southern and western
Mississippi...Arkansas and northeastern Texas...with isolated
maximum amounts of up to 20 inches possible through Thursday.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over the central Gulf Coast today.

Repeating the 600 am CDT position...28.8 N...90.1 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...115 mph.
Minimum central pressure...954 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 800 am CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 1000 am CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 011301
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

...GUSTAV WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...EYEWALL MOVING ONTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE
CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM CDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...
125 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 130
MILES...210 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. THIS POSITION
IS ALSO ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...SOUTHWEST OF PORT FOURCHON ALONG
THE LOUISIANA COAST.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST BY MIDDAY TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110
MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFTER GUSTAV MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION IN SHELL BEACH
LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH...104 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE COAST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY.

REPEATING THE 800 AM CDT POSITION...28.9 N...90.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[WindRunner]

WTNT32 KNHC 011453
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1000 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

...CENTER OF GUSTAV MAKES LANDFALL NEAR COCODRIE LOUISIANA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE
CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
CONTINUES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO THE
FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.8 WEST OR OVER THE LOUISIANA
COAST JUST WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCODRIE LOUISIANA. THIS POSITION IS
ALSO ABOUT ABOUT 70 MILES...110 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE
LOUISIANA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN THE
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA
TONIGHT AND EASTERN TEXAS ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MOVES INLAND
OVER LOUISIANA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 83 MPH...133 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE COAST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...29.2 N...90.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1200 PM CDT AND 200 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1200 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

...CENTER OF GUSTAV APPROACHING MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE
CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1200 PM CDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.1 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT
ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA AND
ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...NEW ORLEANS OF LOUISIANA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN THE
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA
TONIGHT AND EASTERN TEXAS ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...
170 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS
THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MOVES INLAND OVER LOUISIANA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE AUTOMATED STATION AT
AMERADA PASS LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 76 MPH...
122 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE COAST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1200 PM CDT POSITION...29.6 N...91.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

...GUSTAV WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...CENTER APPROACHING
NEW IBERIA AND LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE
CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM CDT...1900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST OR JUST NORTHEAST OF
FRANKLIN LOUISIANA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT ABOUT 35 MILES...
55 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN THE
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND EASTERN TEXAS ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...145 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS
THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MOVES INLAND OVER LOUISIANA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...80 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM. NEW IBERIA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 75
MPH...121 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.26 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE COAST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY.

REPEATING THE 200 PM CDT POSITION...29.9 N...91.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[WindRunner]

WTNT42 KNHC 012052
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA JUST
NORTH OF LAFAYETTE. WSR-88D DATA FROM SLIDELL AND LAKE CHARLES
SHOW THAT THE EYE SEEN AT LANDFALL HAS FILLED AND BEEN REPLACED BY
A SOLID RAIN MASS NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT DOPPLER WINDS OF 90-100 KT ALOFT SUGGESTS
THERE SURFACE WINDS ARE PROBABLY NEAR 70 KT. GUSTAV IS NOW FAR
ENOUGH INLAND THAT IT SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN...AND IT IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATE
TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/14. GUSTAV IS BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD
BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THROUGH 36 HR...WITH MORE NORTHWARD MOTION SHOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THEIR PREVIOUS
RUNS.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE COASTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS LONG AS GUSTAV KEEPS A VIABLE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 30.4N 92.0W 70 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 31.2N 93.2W 50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 02/1800Z 32.1N 94.3W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 03/0600Z 32.6N 94.9W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 03/1800Z 33.0N 95.4W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 04/1800Z 34.0N 95.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 05/1800Z 35.0N 95.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 06/1800Z 36.0N 94.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
400 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD. A
HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF CAMERON
LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON WESTWARD TO
JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS...AND FROM THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA
BORDER TO THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.0 WEST OR NEAR OPELOUSAS
LOUISIANA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 15 MILES...20 KM...NORTH OF
LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT...AND
INTO EASTERN TEXAS BY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...WITH
GUSTAV FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM. BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
OF 82 MPH...131 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ON
THE COASTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ELSEWHERE IN
THE WARNED AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...30.4 N...92.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN