ATL GUSTAV: HPC Advisories

[Thunder44]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 290852
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...GUSTAV NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA HEADING TOWARD THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA...FOR THE
PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL CUBA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...140 KM...WEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 220 MILES...355
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL LEAVE JAMAICA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY...AND
APPROACH WESTERN CUBA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW.
GUSTAV COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING WESTERN CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
DATA IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
CUBA.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...18.1 N...78.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA


000
WTNT42 KNHC 290853
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS AN EXPANDING CLOUD SHIELD AND
IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT
HAS BEEN SAMPLING THE STORM'S CIRCULATION FOUND THAT THE SIZE OF
GUSTAV HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED. ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO SAMPLE THE CENTER...PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KT WERE
OBSERVED...ALONG WITH SIMILAR VALUES FOR THE SFMR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7. THERE IS A COMPLICATED
EVOLUTION TO THE STEERING CURRENTS AROUND GUSTAV DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA THAT HAS BEEN
STEERING THE STORM WESTWARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY. THE
BERMUDA HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND CAUSE GUSTAV TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND. ONE BIG QUESTION IS THE EVOLUTION OF A MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE
MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS/GFDL/HWRF...ARE SHOWING THIS LOW CREATING
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE BERMUDA HIGH TO ALLOW A MOTION MORE
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES CUBA. IT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISING IF THAT TRACK BRIEFLY OCCURRED...BUT IN THE
LONGER-TERM...A HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY BEND TO THE LEFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE BEND. THE UKMET AND
GFS HAVE HAD LARGE CHANGES TO THEIR FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUNS...AND GIVEN THE INCREASING MODEL SPREAD...WE'VE OPTED TO KEEP
THE FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOPEFULLY A G-IV MISSION
LATER TODAY WILL HELP RESOLVE SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES.

AFTER THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM JAMAICA...SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
VERY LIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COMBINED WITH THE
DEEP WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS...COULD PRODUCE A STRONG HURRICANE VERY
QUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION
BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN CUBA AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AS SOME
MODELS SHOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AT THAT TIME. A LARGE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THIS TROUGH MAY IMPART SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON GUSTAV
AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST
SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DUE TO THE SHEAR...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE A
LARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 18.1N 78.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 18.6N 79.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 19.6N 81.0W 75 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 21.0N 82.8W 90 KT
48HR VT 31/0600Z 22.7N 84.6W 100 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 26.4N 88.1W 110 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 29.0N 91.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 03/0600Z 30.0N 93.0W 85 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 291151
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...CENTER OF GUSTAV ABOUT TO MOVE WEST OF JAMAICA...

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA...FOR THE
PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL CUBA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST...NEAR THE
WESTERN END OF JAMAICA...OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...
WEST-NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 200 MILES...320
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY TOMORROW. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL LEAVE JAMAICA THIS MORNING...MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...AND MOVE
NEAR OR OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW.
GUSTAV COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING WESTERN CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREAS.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
CUBA.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...18.3 N...78.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...GUSTAV POISED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR WESTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL CUBA...FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES...265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 450 MILES
...725 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A CONTINUED
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER
TODAY...OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA ON SATURDAY...AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. GUSTAV COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING WESTERN CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREAS.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...18.6 N...78.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB


TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2008

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR WESTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL CUBA...FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 78.8W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 78.8W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 78.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.3N 80.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.8N 81.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.6N 83.8W...OVER WESTERN CUBA
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.3N 85.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.5N 89.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 29.5N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 31.0N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 78.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

SINCE THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX OVER WESTERN JAMAICA AT ABOUT 1100
UTC...WHICH INCLUDED A CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 988 MB...GOES
VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT GUSTAV IS REGAINING ORGANIZATION NOW
THAT ITS CENTER HAS EMERGED OVER WATER WEST OF JAMAICA. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 55 KT UNTIL WE RECEIVE NEW DATA
FROM THE NEXT AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT GUSTAV IS ALREADY A LITTLE STRONGER. THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE
MORE THAN 24 HOURS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...SO
STRENGTHENING SEEMS IMMINENT AND COULD EVEN BE RAPID. THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A 28
PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SINCE THERE IS ABOUT 36 HOURS LEFT BEFORE GUSTAV
CROSSES CUBA...THERE REMAINS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT GUSTAV COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THAT ISLAND. CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEAR TO SUPPORT A
MAJOR HURRICANE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR COULD INCREASE A
LITTLE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

GUSTAV IS MOVING AT ABOUT 295/7 BUT IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING TO
THE RIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND IS HEADED FOR
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PATH OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA IN ROUGHLY 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TRACK INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS DIVERGE
TREMENDOUSLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THE HIGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MODELS THAT SHOW A SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF SHOW A LITTLE MORE RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES HIGH...WHILE THOSE THAT ARE FASTER AND
STRAIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOW
LESS OF THAT RIDGING. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
ONLY SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE
CONSENSUS...GIVING RESPECT TO THE NWS MODELS GFS...GFDL...AND
HWRF...WHICH ALSO SEEM TO DEPICT A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SYSTEM THAT WE
EXPECT GUSTAV TO BE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD THE
TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN...AND FINAL LANDFALL REMAINS
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 18.6N 78.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 19.3N 80.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 20.8N 81.8W 80 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 22.6N 83.8W 95 KT...OVER WESTERN CUBA
48HR VT 31/1200Z 24.3N 85.7W 105 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 27.5N 89.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 02/1200Z 29.5N 91.0W 100 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 03/1200Z 31.0N 93.0W 60 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...GUSTAV ALMOST A HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL
RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...AND FOR THE
CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...AND GRANMA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 425 MILES
...685 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY AND TO CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL
PASS NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY...OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA ON SATURDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
ON SUNDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GUSTAV
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME TODAY. GUSTAV COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING WESTERN CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 8 TO 13 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING ISLA DE
JUVENTUD.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.8 N...79.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
2100 UTC FRI AUG 29 2008

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO
DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL
RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...AND FOR THE
CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...AND GRANMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 79.7W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT.......140NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 79.7W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 79.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.1N 80.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.7N 82.8W...OVER ISLE OF YOUTH
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 23.4N 84.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.2N 86.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.0N 90.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 30.5N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 32.0N 94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 79.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...GUSTAV BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO
DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL
RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...AND FOR THE
CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...AND GRANMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...
160 KM...EAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 380 MILES...610 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS NEAR OR
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT...OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA
ON SATURDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
GUSTAV COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME IT CROSSES
WESTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 8 TO 13 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING ISLA DE
JUVENTUD.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...19.2 N...79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS OCCASIONALLY REVEALED AN EYE TRYING TO
FORM...BUT THAT FEATURE HAS NOT BEEN PERSISTENT.
NEVERTHELESS...THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION...WITH SOLID CONVECTIVE BANDS AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
THAT IS WELL-DEVELOPED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE UNDERLYING WATERS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE QUITE WARM...AND TO SOME DEPTH
BENEATH THE SURFACE...SO THERE ARE NO APPARENT IMPEDIMENTS TO
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE GUSTAV REACHES WESTERN CUBA. EVEN
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
SHIPS-BASED RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX THAT SHOWS A 35 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS PRIOR TO CROSSING WESTERN CUBA. PASSAGE OVER CUBA WILL NOT
LIKELY HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE STORM'S STRENGTH...AND ALL GUIDANCE
FORECASTS A STRENGTHENING TREND OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...WITH
SLIGHT WEAKENING POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE GULF...AND
DESPITE THE WEAKENING IMPLIED BY THE LESSER INTENSITY OVER LAND AT
96 HOURS...GUSTAV COULD MAKE FINAL LANDFALL ALONG SOME PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

GUSTAV HAS TURNED MORE TO THE RIGHT AND SPED UP A LITTLE...NOW
MOVING AT ABOUT 305/10...AS IT HEADS FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE PORTION OF THAT RIDGE
THAT IS INTACT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO EVOLVE INTO A DEEP-LAYER HIGH THAT WILL
REACH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN A FEW DAYS. THERE ARE IMPORTANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS...HOWEVER...IN HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THAT HIGH TOWARD TEXAS...AND IN HOW STRONG
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF IN A FEW DAYS. THESE VARYING SOLUTIONS LEAD TO
DIFFERENT TRACKS FOR GUSTAV OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. MODELS WITH
THE RIDGE EXTENSION AND A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF
GUSTAV...SUCH AS THE NOGAPS AND UKMET...FORECAST GUSTAV TO TURN
WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS. OTHERS INCLUDING THE GFS...GFDL...AND
HWRF...DO NOT SHOW THE RIDGE EXTENSION NOR A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...AND FORECAST GUSTAV TO BE PULLED INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FARTHER EAST. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
LATTER SOLUTIONS AND IS EAST OF THE CONSENSUS...AND REPRESENTS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DUE TO THE NOTABLE
MODEL SPREAD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT IS ONCE AGAIN
IMPORTANT TO RESTATE THAT IT IS SIMPLY NOT YET POSSIBLE TO
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 19.2N 79.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 20.1N 80.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 21.7N 82.8W 90 KT...OVER ISLE OF YOUTH
36HR VT 31/0600Z 23.4N 84.8W 100 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 25.2N 86.8W 110 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 28.0N 90.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 30.5N 92.5W 85 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 03/1800Z 32.0N 94.0W 55 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...GUSTAV STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL
RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...AND FOR THE
CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...AND GRANMA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES...
40 KM...SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS OF LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC.
THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...EAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND
ABOUT 365 MILES...585 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS NEAR OR
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT...OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA
ON SATURDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME IT CROSSES WESTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTER WAS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 8 TO 13 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING ISLA DE
JUVENTUD.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN CUBA. PRECIPITATION FROM GUSTAV MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...19.3 N...80.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...CENTER OF GUSTAV MOVING THROUGH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...AND VILLA CLARA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL
RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...AND FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES...
40 KM...WEST SOUTHWEST OF LITTLE CAYMAN ISLAND. THIS POSITION IS
ALSO ABOUT 55 MILES...85 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND
ABOUT 330 MILES...530 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS NEAR OR
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT...OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA
ON SATURDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND
GUSTAVE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN
CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 14 TO 19 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING ISLA DE
JUVENTUD.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. THE RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS JAMAICA
AND EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION FROM GUSTAV MAY BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...19.5 N...80.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
0300 UTC SAT AUG 30 2008

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...AND VILLA CLARA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL
RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...AND FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 80.4W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 80.4W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 80.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.6N 81.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 85NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 90SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.3N 83.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 125SE 105SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.0N 85.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 125SE 105SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.7N 87.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 28.5N 90.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 30.5N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 31.5N 94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 80.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS A 25 NM WIDE EYE THAT IS BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT TRMM AND SSM/I IMAGERY
ALONG WITH CUBAN RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL WITH A
DIAMETER OF ABOUT 100 N MI IS FORMING...AND THE NOAA PLANE REPORTED
88 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 770 MB IN THE CORRESPONDING OUTER WIND
MAXIMUM. RELIABLE-LOOKING DATA FROM THE SFMR SHOWS 65-70 KT
SURFACE WINDS IN BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER WIND MAXIMA...BUT THE
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE AIRCRAFT DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH GUSTAV EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH SOME CONTINUING DISAGREEMENT ON HOW
MUCH RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF GUSTAV AND HOW
GUSTAV WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HR AND THEN
SHOWS SOME SPREAD. THE GFDL REMAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...WHILE THE UKMET CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TURN AND LANDFALL
ON THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...THEN IS SLOWER AND A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER. IT LIES IN
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. WHILE GUSTAV HAS GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS WESTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE
OUTFLOW. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE CONCENTRIC WIND MAXIMA...MAY BE
SLOWING INTENSIFICATION. GUSTAV IS OVER WARM WATER WITH HIGH
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER SUCH WATER UNTIL IS
PASSES NORTH OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN 48-60 HR. THUS...THERE IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IF THE STORM
STRUCTURE AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH PERMIT. THE SHIPS
MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 104 KT...THE LGEM 97 KT...THE
HWRF 114 KT...THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE 114 KT...AND THE GFDL
129 KT. BASED ON THIS AND THE PREMISE THAT THE INTERACTION WITH
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW STEADY STRENGTHENING...THE FORECAST PEAK
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT. GUSTAV COULD GET STRONGER THAN
THAT IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS
A SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 72 HR AS GUSTAV REACHES LOWER OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT AND POSSIBLE ENCOUNTERS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE
FINAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES... WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 19.5N 80.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 20.6N 81.8W 85 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 22.3N 83.7W 100 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/1200Z 24.0N 85.6W 105 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 25.7N 87.6W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 28.5N 90.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 30.5N 93.0W 80 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/0000Z 31.5N 94.0W 45 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

Discussion came out late.

WTNT42 KNHC 300301
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS A 25 NM WIDE EYE THAT IS BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT TRMM AND SSM/I IMAGERY
ALONG WITH CUBAN RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL WITH A
DIAMETER OF ABOUT 100 N MI IS FORMING...AND THE NOAA PLANE REPORTED
88 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 770 MB IN THE CORRESPONDING OUTER WIND
MAXIMUM. RELIABLE-LOOKING DATA FROM THE SFMR SHOWS 65-70 KT
SURFACE WINDS IN BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER WIND MAXIMA...BUT THE
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE AIRCRAFT DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH GUSTAV EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH SOME CONTINUING DISAGREEMENT ON HOW
MUCH RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF GUSTAV AND HOW
GUSTAV WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HR AND THEN
SHOWS SOME SPREAD. THE GFDL REMAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...WHILE THE UKMET CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TURN AND LANDFALL
ON THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...THEN IS SLOWER AND A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER. IT LIES IN
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. WHILE GUSTAV HAS GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS WESTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE
OUTFLOW. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE CONCENTRIC WIND MAXIMA...MAY BE
SLOWING INTENSIFICATION. GUSTAV IS OVER WARM WATER WITH HIGH
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER SUCH WATER UNTIL IS
PASSES NORTH OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN 48-60 HR. THUS...THERE IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IF THE STORM
STRUCTURE AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH PERMIT. THE SHIPS
MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 104 KT...THE LGEM 97 KT...THE
HWRF 114 KT...THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE 114 KT...AND THE GFDL
129 KT. BASED ON THIS AND THE PREMISE THAT THE INTERACTION WITH
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW STEADY STRENGTHENING...THE FORECAST PEAK
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT. GUSTAV COULD GET STRONGER THAN
THAT IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS
A SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 72 HR AS GUSTAV REACHES LOWER OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT AND POSSIBLE ENCOUNTERS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE
FINAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES... WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 19.5N 80.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 20.6N 81.8W 85 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 22.3N 83.7W 100 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/1200Z 24.0N 85.6W 105 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 25.7N 87.6W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 28.5N 90.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 30.5N 93.0W 80 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/0000Z 31.5N 94.0W 45 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 300549
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GUSTAV STRENGTHENS...BEARING DOWN ON THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA AND THE ISLA DE JUVENTUD. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...AND VILLA CLARA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES...85 KM...NORTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 315 MILES...500
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY SUNDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND
GUSTAVE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN
CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 14 TO 19 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING ISLA DE
JUVENTUD.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. THE RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS JAMAICA
AND EASTERN CUBA TODAY. PRECIPITATION FROM GUSTAV MAY BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...19.7 N...80.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[Brent]

HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
0900 UTC SAT AUG 30 2008

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA AND THE ISLA DE JUVENTUD. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...AND VILLA CLARA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 81.3W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 25SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 81.3W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 80.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.2N 82.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 85NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 90SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 22.9N 84.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 125SE 105SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 24.6N 86.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 125SE 105SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.5N 88.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 125SE 105SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 29.5N 91.5W...NEAR LOUISIANA COAST
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 30.5N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 31.0N 94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 81.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA


NNNN

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GUSTAV RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AS IT TAKES AIM ON WESTERN CUBA...

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA AND THE ISLA DE JUVENTUD. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...AND VILLA CLARA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
220 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND ABOUT 255 MILES...410 KM
...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL BE NEAR WESTERN CUBA LATER
TODAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GUSTAV IS
STRENGTHENING QUICKLY AND IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE AT ANY TIME BEFORE REACHING CUBA. FURTHER STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 14 TO 19 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE
OF YOUTH.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS
AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...20.2 N...81.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

GUSTAV HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN EYE IS BECOMING VISIBLE AND DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE IS NOW VERY INTENSE. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS DOWN TO 965 MB...A DROP OF ABOUT 24 MB IN 24 HOURS. THE
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE CREW WERE 100
KT AROUND 6Z... CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 90 KT AT THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...THUS
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED CONSERVATIVELY TO 95 KT.
OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE MUCH HIGHER AND THE NEXT AIRCRAFT
PASS THROUGH GUSTAV COULD FIND A MAJOR HURRICANE.

FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE
SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE EXTREMELY WARM AND DEEP WATERS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR GUSTAV. IN ADDITION...SINCE
THE LOOP CURRENT IS SOUTH OF ITS TYPICAL LOCATION...THE HURRICANE
WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS THAT ARE NOT NEARLY AS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING AS THEY COULD BE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL HOPEFULLY
WEAKEN THE STORM PRIOR TO U.S. LANDFALL. HOWEVER...GUSTAV IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE AND THE NHC FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO NORTHERN FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
THE HURRICANE TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL
LEFTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO
EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET/HWRF...WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE.
THESE TWO MODELS ARE SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...WHICH ALLOWS A RIDGE TO FORM OVER TEXAS TO TURN THE
STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. GUSTAV
WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LONGER-TERM...WHICH
COULD CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE FLOODING THREAT OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 20.2N 81.3W 95 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 21.2N 82.7W 105 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 22.9N 84.6W 110 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 24.6N 86.4W 115 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 26.5N 88.3W 110 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 29.5N 91.5W 100 KT...NEAR LOUISIANA COAST
96HR VT 03/0600Z 30.5N 93.0W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/0600Z 31.0N 94.0W 35 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 301200
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...MAJOR HURRICANE GUSTAV CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVER THE ISLE OF YOUTH...

AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND
CIENFUEGOS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN
CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA...ISLA DE JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
135 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND ABOUT 225 MILES...360 KM
...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

GUSTAV HAS JOGGED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO SOON RESUME A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV WILL PASS OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF BY EARLY MONDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 120
MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER WESTERN CUBA AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...AND COULD REACH CATEGORY FOUR STATUS BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL THERE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM BOTH AIR FORCE
AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 14 TO 19 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE
OF YOUTH. STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS
AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...20.8 N...81.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1500 UTC SAT AUG 30 2008

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 82.1W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 82.1W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 81.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.5N 83.5W...OVER WESTERN CUBA
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 90SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.3N 85.4W...OVER GULF OF MEXICO
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 125SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.0N 87.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.8N 89.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 30.5N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 31.5N 94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 32.0N 95.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 82.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GUSTAV EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CLOSES IN ON WESTERN CUBA...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...
85 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND ABOUT 185 MILES...
295 KM...EAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT...EMERGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY ON SUNDAY...AND REACH THE NORTHERN
GULF BY MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS GUSTAV PASSES NEAR AND OVER WESTERN CUBA. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER GUSTAV REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECENT REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE
AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 14 TO 19 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE
OF YOUTH. STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS
AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...21.2 N...82.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

AFTER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVERNIGHT...THE STRENGTHENING RATE
APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED A LITTLE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
REPORTED BY RECON HAS CONTINUED TO FALL THIS MORNING...WITH THE
MOST RECENT VALUE DOWN TO 954 MB. THE BRIEF TIME GUSTAV WILL SPEND
OVER WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO SHOULD NOT WEAKEN THE
HURRICANE MUCH...AND ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WHERE OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT IS GREATEST. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
PEAKS A LITTLE HIGHER AT 120 KT...VERY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE MODELS. DESPITE THE IMPLIED WEAKENING BETWEEN 48 AND 72
HOURS DUE TO FORECAST LANDFALL...NO DRAMATIC WEAKENING IS FORECAST
WHILE GUSTAV REMAINS OVER THE GULF...AND IT COULD REACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

GUSTAV JOGGED NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IT IS NOT
YET CLEAR IF IT HAS RESUMED A NORTHWESTWARD HEADING...BUT THE
LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWESTWARD OR 320/12. THE STEERING
CURRENTS PUSHING GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD ARE GENERALLY WELL-DEFINED
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AS THE HURRICANE MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BEYOND 48 HOURS...MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AS A
STRONG BUT DISTANT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AND STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. NONE OF
THE MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED THEIR TRACK SOLUTION COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...SO THE CONSENSUS HAS REMAINED IN PLACE.
THE SPREAD AT 3-5 DAYS IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL...HOWEVER...WITH SOME
MODELS INCLUDING THE UKMET AND HWRF CALLING FOR GUSTAV TO TURN
WESTWARD JUST BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE IN TAKING GUSTAV INLAND IN LESS THAN 72 HOURS...AND IS
JUST EDGED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...IN PART TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE RECENT RIGHT OF TRACK MOTION. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS IN THE
TRACK...GUSTAV WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
LONGER-TERM...WHICH COULD CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE FLOODING THREAT OVER
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 21.2N 82.1W 110 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 22.5N 83.5W 105 KT...OVER WESTERN CUBA
24HR VT 31/1200Z 24.3N 85.4W 115 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 26.0N 87.3W 120 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 27.8N 89.2W 110 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 30.5N 92.5W 65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/1200Z 31.5N 94.0W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/1200Z 32.0N 95.5W 30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[canegrl04]

NO DRAMATIC WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE GUSTAV REMAINS OVER THE GULF


So they are saying Gustav could make landfall as a cat 3 or 4?

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
120 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008


DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS
NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 200 PM
EDT TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES. THE SPECIAL
PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

HURRICANE GUSTAV SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1800 UTC SAT AUG 30 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY...AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 82.5W AT 30/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 125SE 75SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 82.5W AT 30/1800Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 81.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.5N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 125SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.3N 85.4W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 125SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.0N 87.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.8N 89.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 30.5N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 31.5N 94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 32.0N 95.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 82.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GUSTAV BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
...WESTERN EYEWALL DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY...AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST...NEAR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH...OR ABOUT 155 MILES...250 KM...EAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA AND ABOUT 110 MILES...180 KM...SOUTH OF HAVANA CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY ON SUNDAY...AND REACH THE NORTHERN
GULF BY MONDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 145
MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION OF A SUSTAINED WIND OF
140 MPH...220 KM/HR...HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE ISLE OF YOUTH. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE EITHER BEFORE OR SHORTLY AFTER CROSSING WESTERN
CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 23 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN
CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV
PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS
AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...21.6 N...82.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 301823
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

SO MUCH FOR A SLOWDOWN IN THE INTENSIFICATION RATE OF GUSTAV.
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WE CONVEYED THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WAS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS IS A LITTLE MORE
THAN WHAT WE HAD IN MIND IN SUCH A SHORT TIME. THE HURRICANE HAS
REACHED CATEGORY FOUR STATUS WITH AN INTENSITY OF 125 KT...HAVING
BEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM JUST ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO. THE MAXIMUM
SURFACE WIND VALUE IS BASED ON A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 700 MB OF 141
KT...SINCE THE 90 PERCENT ADJUSTMENT TO THE SURFACE USUALLY WORKS
RATHER WELL FOR INTENSIFYING MAJOR HURRICANES. THE AIRCRAFT FIXES
INDICATE THAT A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION HAS RESUMED...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12...RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK. NO CHANGES TO THE 1500 UTC FORECAST TRACK HAVE BEEN
MADE...BUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH
96 HOURS. GUSTAV COULD INTENSIFY SOME MORE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS OVER WATER...AND ONE CANNOT RULE OUT CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY
BEFORE CROSSING CUBA. THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR A PEAK AT 140
KT...CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY...OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WHERE OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT WILL STILL BE HIGH...FOLLOWED BY A VERY GRADUAL
WEAKENING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LESS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1800Z 21.6N 82.5W 125 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 22.5N 83.5W 135 KT...OVER WESTERN CUBA
24HR VT 31/1200Z 24.3N 85.4W 140 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 26.0N 87.3W 135 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 27.8N 89.2W 125 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 30.5N 92.5W 80 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/1200Z 31.5N 94.0W 50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/1200Z 32.0N 95.5W 30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

276
WTNT22 KNHC 302046
TCMAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
2100 UTC SAT AUG 30 2008

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 500 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD
TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY...AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 82.9W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 82.9W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 82.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 23.4N 84.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 125SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.3N 86.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 125SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.2N 88.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 29.0N 90.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.0N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 32.0N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 32.0N 96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 82.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

951
WTNT32 KNHC 302353
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GUSTAV MAKES LANDFALL IN WESTERN MAINLAND CUBA...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY...AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
OVER WESTERN CUBA NEAR LOS PALACIOS AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE DURING THE
PASSAGE OF THE EYE...SINCE WINDS WILL SOON RAPIDLY INCREASE AS
EYEWALL AGAIN PASSES. THE EYE IS ALSO CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 570
MILES...915 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL EMERGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND REACH
THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THERE ARE
UNOFFICIAL REPORTS FROM PINAR DEL RIO PROVINCE OF WINDS NEAR THESE
ESTIMATES. SOME FLUCTUATIONS WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REACH
CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY DURING THIS PERIOD. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AS GUSTAV WAS MAKING LANDFALL WAS 941
MB...27.79 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 23 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN
CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV
PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...22.7 N...83.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
0300 UTC SUN AUG 31 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...
CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE OF
VILLA CLARA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD
TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 83.8W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 260SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 83.8W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 83.4W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.6N 85.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 125SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.5N 87.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 125SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 28.3N 89.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 29.8N 91.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 31.5N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 32.5N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 32.5N 96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 83.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...CENTER OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER GUSTAV MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...
CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE OF
VILLA CLARA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD
TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...WEST OF
HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 530 MILES...850 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY...AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WHILE GUSTAV HAS WEAKEN DURING PASSAGE OVER CUBA...IT IS
FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE LIKELY AFTER THAT TIME...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A
MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT
FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE WINDS OF 51 MPH...81 KM/HR...
WITH A GUST TO 67 MPH...108 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 23 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ALONG THE
COAST OF WESTERN CUBA SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT. STORM SURGE OF 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS
GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN FLORIDA. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV MAY BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...23.1 N...83.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

Discussion came late.

WTNT42 KNHC 310308
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

THE EYE OF GUSTAV CROSSED WESTERN CUBA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND IS NOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
HURRICANE WEAKENED DURING PASSAGE OVER LAND...WITH THE EYE BECOMING
CLOUD FILLED AND THE EYEWALL CONVECTION BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE IN
BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 120 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL ARRIVE IN THE STORM ABOUT 06Z TO DETERMINE THE
ACTUAL INTENSITY.

THE MOTION HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN 315 AND 320 DEGREES AT 13
KT...WITH 320/13 USED IN THIS PACKAGE. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC REASONING...WITH GUSTAV BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD BY A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND THEN BY
AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HR...CALLING FOR
GUSTAV TO TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MAKE LANDFALL IN
SOUTHEASTERN OR SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO IS LIES JUST TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. AFTER LANDFALL...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF GUSTAV...WITH A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE TRACK FORECAST AT THAT
TIME CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
12Z UKMET FORECASTS GUSTAV TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES THE
LOUISIANA COAST...WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSIFICATION
OCCURRED DESPITE ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CAUSED BY
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRESENCE OF
THIS SHEAR IS SUPPORTED BY RADAR DATA FROM THE KEY WEST WSR-88D...
WHICH CURRENTLY SHOWS A WEAK SOUTHERN EYEWALL AND LITTLE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE EYEWALL. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THE
SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH SOME DURING THE NEXT 18 HR...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN AS GUSTAV MOVES BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST. ON THE OCEAN SIDE...GUSTAV IS
FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE LOOP CURRENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
THEN POSSIBLY PASS OVER A COUPLE OF COLD EDDIES NORTH OF 26N. ALL
GUIDANCE FORECAST RE-INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 135 KT IN 24
HR...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO SHEAR AND
LOWER HEAT CONTENT...THEN FASTER WEAKENING OVER LAND. DUE TO THE
VARIOUS FACTORS...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST.

HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0300Z 23.1N 83.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 24.6N 85.3W 130 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 26.5N 87.4W 135 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 28.3N 89.5W 130 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 29.8N 91.2W 120 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 03/0000Z 31.5N 93.0W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 04/0000Z 32.5N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/0000Z 32.5N 96.0W 25 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN