ATL GUSTAV: HPC Advisories

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
0300 UTC WED AUG 27 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST
NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA
AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 73.6W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 60SE 15SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 73.6W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 73.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.9N 74.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.0N 75.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.2N 77.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 85NE 85SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.4N 78.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.5N 82.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 95NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 23.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 26.5N 89.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 73.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

...GUSTAV WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINS AND
SQUALLS ARE STILL LASHING MUCH OF HAITI...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST
NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA
AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATEDNEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...135 KM...WEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 150
MILES...245 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FORECAST TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GUSTAV SHOULD PASS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS MOVING BACK OVER WATER AND IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN
HURRICANE STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY ONCE IT CLEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI. MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON
THURSDAY AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WHEN IT
PASSES BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...18.6 N...73.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z THIS EVENING...RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE CUBAN
RADAR SITE AT GRAN PIEDRA DEPICTED A NICE DOUGHNUT SHAPED MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME BOTH RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE EYE FEATURE HAS DEGENERATED INTO A
RAGGED AND POORLY DEFINED FEATURE. THEREFORE...GUSTAV HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AND THE INTENSITY LOWERED TO 60
KT...WHICH IS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE T4.0/65 KT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES DERIVED AT 00Z. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SLIGHTLY
RESTRICTED BUT IMPROVING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT... AND IS
EXCELLENT IN THE OTHER THREE QUADRANTS.

THE AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS 290/07...ALTHOUGH THE
MOTION OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS HAS BEEN ALMOST DUE WEST. THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL BE THE LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WHICH
IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE A PLAYER AND ACT TO SLOW DOWN GUSTAV BY DAY 5. THE EXCEPTIONS
ARE THE GFDL AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH BLAST GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE UPPER-TROUGH TO THE TEXAS COAST. THIS SEEMS PHYSICALLY
UNLIKELY AT THIS JUNCTURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GUSTAV
TO GRADUALLY MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY
DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUOS
ADVISORY TRACK...AND REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IN THE EXPECTATION THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PLAY A MORE PROMINENT ROLE THAN
INDICATED BY THE GFDL AND ECMWF.

GUSTAV IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...
WHICH IS INDUCING SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...THE FLOW IS ALSO STRONGLY DIFLUENT...WHICH SHOULD AID THE
RE-INTENSIFICATION PROCESS ONCE GUSTAV CLEARS THE WESTERN PORTION
OF HAITI. BOTH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 36 AND 72 HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BY BRINGING GUSTAV TO JUST BELOW
CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...POSSIBLE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR MAY CREATE
INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE LATTER FORECAST PERIODS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 18.6N 73.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 18.9N 74.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 19.0N 75.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 19.2N 77.1W 85 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 19.4N 78.5W 95 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 20.5N 82.2W 110 KT
96HR VT 31/0000Z 23.0N 86.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 01/0000Z 26.5N 89.5W 110 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

...CORRECTED HEADER...

...GUSTAV HESITATES...PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF
HAITI...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST
NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA
AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 18.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...125 KM...WEST OF
PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 135 MILES...215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF
GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...GUSTAV SHOULD PASS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA LATER TODAY AND ON AND THURSDAY.

GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED WHILE INTERACTING WITH THE TERRAIN OF HAITI AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...GUSTAV COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH
LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW ONCE IT CLEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI. MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY
WHEN IT PASSES BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...18.6 N...73.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[butch]

WTNT32 KNHC 271147
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

...GUSTAV CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS TO HAITI...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM EAST OF LE MOLE
ST NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND HOLGUIN AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES...150 KM...WEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. A WEST-
NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...GUSTAV SHOULD PASS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF CUBA ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN
HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THURSDAY ONCE IT MOVES AWAY FROM HAITI.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...18.8 N...73.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1500 UTC WED AUG 27 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH
COAST OF HAITI EAST OF LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS IS DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND HOLGUIN AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 74.0W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 74.0W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 73.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.0N 74.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.2N 76.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.3N 77.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.9N 79.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 24.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 28.5N 88.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 74.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

WTNT32 KNHC 271432
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

...GUSTAV STILL BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND SQUALLS TO PORTIONS OF
HAITI...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH
COAST OF HAITI EAST OF LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS IS DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND HOLGUIN AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.0 WEST OR ABOUT 110
MILES...180 KM...WEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 125 MILES...
200 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...GUSTAV SHOULD PASS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF CUBA ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE GUSTAV MOVES AWAY FROM
HAITI...AND THE STORM COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...18.8 N...74.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

246
WTNT42 KNHC 271435
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

GUSTAV HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI.
HOWEVER RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR
OBSERVATIONS FROM GRAN PIEDRA CUBA SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LAST AERIAL
RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS IN THE STORM DID NOT ACTUALLY SUPPORT
AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT...BUT BASED ON THE TREND SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION WE ASSUME THAT GUSTAV IS PROBABLY VERY NEAR
THAT INTENSITY BY NOW. CIRRUS MOTIONS INDICATE SOME MODEST
NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM BUT OTHERWISE THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...ONCE GUSTAV PULLS AWAY FROM
HAITI. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE THROUGH DAY 3. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AT DAYS 4 AND 5... SO WE SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NOTWITHSTANDING...THERE IS VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...SKILL IN
INTENSITY PREDICTIONS AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES. INDEED...IF ONE
LOOKS AT THE LATEST WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED IN THIS
PACKAGE...IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THERE IS NEARLY AN EQUAL CHANCE THAT
GUSTAV WILL BE A CATEGORY 1...CATEGORY 2...OR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING AS IT INTERACTED WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS
LANDMASS OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. HOWEVER A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION...290/4...APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED THIS MORNING. A 500 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR FLORIDA WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING
EASTWARD AND WESTWARD IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE STORM TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEGINNING
AROUND DAY 3...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE THE
RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD CAUSE
GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK THROUGH
72 HOURS AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT BY DAY 5. ONE SHOULD
NOT READ MUCH INTO SUCH SHIFTS OF THE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE
TYPICAL ERROR OF A 5-DAY PREDICTION IS OVER 300 MILES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 18.8N 74.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 19.0N 74.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 19.2N 76.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 19.3N 77.5W 70 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 19.9N 79.4W 80 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 21.5N 83.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 24.5N 86.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 01/1200Z 28.5N 88.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME

[Brent]

TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

...GUSTAV GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND HOLGUIN AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...225 KM...WEST OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 90 MILES...
145 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GUSTAV
SHOULD PASS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OF GUSTAV VERY NEAR JAMAICA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE GUSTAV MOVES AWAY FROM
HAITI...AND THE STORM COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.8 N...74.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

...GUSTAV A LITTLE WEAKER...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND HOLGUIN AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST OR 90
MILES...150 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...GUSTAV SHOULD PASS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF CUBA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF
THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OF GUSTAV VERY NEAR
JAMAICA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE GUSTAV MOVES AWAY FROM
HAITI...AND THE STORM COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...19.1 N...74.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO GUSTAV INDICATES
THAT THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED A BIT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 999
MB AND A PEAK SFMR WIND OF ABOUT 45 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DESPITE THE SHORT-TERM
WEAKENING...ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
RE-INTENSIFICATION ONCE GUSTAV MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA...LIKELY
TONIGHT. STILL...THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
INTENSITY MODELS WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOWING ROBUST
STRENGTHENING...AND THE STATISTICALLY-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS
THAT FORECAST ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

GUSTAV CONTINUES TO CRAWL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
OF 300/03. THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED.
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IN 2-3 DAYS...THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST...TAKING GUSTAV OVER OR VERY NEAR WESTERN CUBA AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY DAY 5...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS COULD WEAKEN RESULTING IN
A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED. IN GENERAL...THE TRACK MODELS HAVE
NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE STILL REMAINS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING GUSTAV'S ULTIMATE TRACK AT DAYS 3-5...AND IT
IS MUCH TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT IMPACT THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 19.1N 74.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 19.1N 75.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 19.2N 76.6W 60 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 19.5N 78.1W 70 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 20.2N 79.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 22.0N 83.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 31/1800Z 25.5N 86.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 01/1800Z 28.5N 88.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

...GUSTAV TURNS WESTWARD AND WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND HOLGUIN AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST OR 65
MILES...100 KM...SOUTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TRACK TO
THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THAT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GUSTAV SHOULD PASS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF GUSTAV
VERY NEAR JAMAICA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
ONCE GUSTAV MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM HAITI...AND THE STORM COULD
REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...19.0 N...75.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
0300 UTC THU AUG 28 2008

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI NORTH
OF PORT AU PRINCE IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI WEST OF
THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PORT AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND HOLGUIN AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 75.4W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 75.4W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 75.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.8N 76.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.9N 78.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.4N 79.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.1N 81.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 26.0N 87.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 29.0N 89.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 75.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

...GUSTAV NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI NORTH
OF PORT AU PRINCE IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI WEST OF
THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PORT AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND HOLGUIN AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT 205
MILES...325 KM...WEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 100 MILES...
155 KM...SOUTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST TOMORROW AND TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PASS
VERY CLOSE TO JAMAICA TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
GUSTAV COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...18.8 N...75.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS AT 23Z. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT
INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF GUSTAV BEGAN TO MOVE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS WERE 39 KT AND THE HIGHEST RECENT BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS WERE
41 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON THESE
OBSERVATIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 250/7...ALTHOUGH THE
CENTER HAS BEEN VERY HARD TO TRACK SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST FIX
AND MIGHT BE A LITTLE SOUTH OF MY ADVISORY POSITION. A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE...ORIENTED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST...IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS RIDGE HAS IMPARTED A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
OF MOTION THAT SOME MODELS SHOW PERSISTING FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR
SO. AFTER THAT...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD IS THE
EVOLUTION AND IMPACT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BLOCKING HIGH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD REMINISCENT OF WHAT HAPPENED
WITH FAY A WEEK OR SO AGO. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES
MOST STRONGLY ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...UKMET...GFDL...AND
GFS...WHICH IS NOW FOLLOWING THE VORTEX FAIRLY WELL...AND IS JUST
TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE LEFT.

GUSTAV HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY DISPRUPTED BY ITS ENCOUNTER WITH THE
TERRAIN OF HAITI. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE
OVERTAKING THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHEAST. IN ANOTHER 24-36
HOURS...HOWEVER...GUSTAV SHOULD FIND ITSELF UNDER AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE AND OVER THE VERY DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
RESTRENGTHEN. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES GUSTAV OVER
THE LOOP CURRENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. AFTER THAT...GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COULD SLOW THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWER
RESTRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INITIALLY...BUT IS
OTHERWISE SIMILAR...AND ROUGHLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

IT PROBABLY WOULDN'T HURT TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE 5-DAY
OFFICIAL TRACK ERROR IS ABOUT 300 MILES...AND THE AVERAGE 5-DAY
INTENSITY ERROR IS ABOUT 25 MPH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 18.8N 75.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 18.8N 76.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 18.9N 78.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 19.4N 79.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 20.1N 81.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 31/0000Z 22.5N 84.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 01/0000Z 26.0N 87.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 02/0000Z 29.0N 89.5W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
0300 UTC THU AUG 28 2008

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 2 2 2 3 6 20
TROP DEPRESSION 12 13 8 6 4 7 14
TROPICAL STORM 86 77 61 40 22 19 22
HURRICANE 3 9 30 52 72 69 44
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 8 25 36 33 21 17
HUR CAT 2 X X 3 11 21 19 12
HUR CAT 3 1 1 2 4 13 19 10
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 4 9 4
HUR CAT 5 X X X X 1 1 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 60KT 70KT 85KT 95KT 95KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 2(13)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) 1(17)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 16(19) 6(25) 2(27)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 9(34) 2(36)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 1(13)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 9(23) 2(25)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)
MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) 3(23)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) 4(25)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 4(19)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 4(17)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 6(18)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 8(25)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 7(28)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)

PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 9(25)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)

MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)

PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 12(26)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 11(35)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)

MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 12(26)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)
MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)
GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 14(31)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)

GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 12(38)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9)

JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 13(25)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 12(28)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)

BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)
GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) 2(22)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)

BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)

GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)

ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)

GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 12(47) 2(49)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 8(24) 2(26)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12)

HAVANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 33(43) 6(49) 1(50)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) X(22)
HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10)

ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 34(52) 5(57) 1(58)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 3(28) X(28)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12)

CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) 18(40) 2(42) 1(43)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

CAMAGUEY 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 5(20) 1(21) X(21)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 20(33) 15(48) 2(50) 1(51)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 9(22) 1(23) X(23)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10)

MONTEGO BAY 34 1 31(32) 14(46) 4(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

KINGSTON 34 3 10(13) 4(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20)
KINGSTON 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KINGSTON 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE APPROACHING GUSTAV...STILL MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWEST...

AT 2 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF GRANMA WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING. ALL OTHER HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED FOR CUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI WEST OF THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND PORT AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES...130 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 105
MILES...165 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST LATER TODAY AND TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY
CLOSE TO JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
GUSTAV COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...18.5 N...75.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
0900 UTC THU AUG 28 2008

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 75.6W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 75.6W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 75.5W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.8N 78.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.5N 80.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.5N 82.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 22.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 26.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 28.5N 91.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 75.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA


NNNN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

...GUSTAV REFORMS TO THE SOUTH AND IS A LITTLE STRONGER...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES...130 KM...EAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 170 MILES...270
KM...SOUTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY
CLOSE TO JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
GUSTAV COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN CUBA...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER HAITI...
JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...17.8 N...75.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS FOUND A SURPRISE THIS MORNING.
GUSTAV HAS EITHER REFORMED TO THE SOUTH OR BEEN MOVING MORE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE PRESSURE IS DOWN 10 MB
DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE PLANE HAS NOT YET SAMPLED THE ENTIRE
STORM...BUT IT IS ASSUMED THE WINDS HAVE COME UP SLIGHTLY WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALL AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
45 KT. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND
INTERACTION WITH JAMAICA MAY LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THUS THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY RAISED FROM EARLIER. THEREAFTER...THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE TO BE NEAR THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV...WHICH WOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT GUSTAV WILL BE A POWERFUL
HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE NORTHERN GULF BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 215/7. THE REFORMATION OF
THE CENTER HAS CAUSED A BIG SOUTHWARD CHANGE IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE FORECAST...AND GUSTAV IS NOW FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST OF JAMAICA. THE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT HAS BEEN CAUSING THIS SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW GUSTAV TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AROUND THE
TIME IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MID-LATITUDE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO BE IN THE OHIO VALLEY IN ABOUT 5 DAYS...WHICH MAY CONTINUE
STEERING THE STORM IN A NORTHWESTWARD FASHION RATHER THAN ALLOW A
MORE NORTHWARD MOTION LIKE THE GFDL SUGGESTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SHIFTED WESTWARD IN THE LONGER-TERM...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFDL ARE TO THE RIGHT
OF THE NHC FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 17.8N 75.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 17.5N 77.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 17.8N 78.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 18.5N 80.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 19.5N 82.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 22.0N 85.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 26.0N 89.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 28.5N 91.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 281113
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
730 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS FOUND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 60 KT AT THE SURFACE.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITY. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE STRENGTHENING OF
GUSTAV HAS PROMPTED THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA TO ISSUE A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE ISSUANCE OF AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 800 AM EDT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1130Z 17.8N 75.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 17.5N 76.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 17.8N 78.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 18.5N 80.3W 70 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 19.5N 82.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 22.0N 85.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 26.0N 89.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 28.5N 91.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

000
WTNT32 KNHC 281111
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
730 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS A STRONGER GUSTAV...

AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 730 AM EDT...1130Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES...130 KM...EAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 170 MILES...270
KM...SOUTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6
MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS EXPECTED
TO PASS VERY CLOSE TO JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN CUBA...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER HAITI...
JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 730 AM EDT POSITION...17.8 N...75.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.

THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[cycloneye]

FONT12 KNHC 281111
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1130 UTC THU AUG 28 2008

AT 1130Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 1 1 4 19
TROP DEPRESSION 2 3 3 3 2 6 14
TROPICAL STORM 58 56 40 35 17 17 20
HURRICANE 40 42 57 62 80 73 46
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 37 36 44 39 27 21 16
HUR CAT 2 2 4 9 15 24 19 12
HUR CAT 3 X 1 3 6 20 22 12
HUR CAT 4 1 1 1 2 8 10 6
HUR CAT 5 X X X X 1 2 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 65KT 70KT 75KT 95KT 100KT 100KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 11(13) 5(18) 1(19)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 14(17) 6(23) 1(24)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 2(18)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)

FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 1(16)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 2(17)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 6(19)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 5(22)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 6(20)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)

MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11)

PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 8(23)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 8(31)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)

MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 11(24)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 11(27)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10)
GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 13(35)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)

GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 12(42)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9)

JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12)
JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 14(30)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 11(35)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9)

BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 11(24)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 11(23)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 11(24)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)

SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15)
GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12)
HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13)
FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)

GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 2(18)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 9(33) 2(35)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)

BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8)

GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)

PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 39(47) 11(58) 1(59)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 6(29) 2(31)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) 1(17)

HAVANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 29(37) 5(42) 1(43)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) 1(16)
HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)

ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 30(52) 3(55) 1(56)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 3(28) 1(29)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15)

CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 13(29) 2(31) 1(32)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

CAMAGUEY 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)

GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 27(28) 26(54) 11(65) 1(66) X(66)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) 8(33) 1(34) X(34)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15)

MONTEGO BAY 34 1 48(49) 12(61) 2(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X 17(17) 7(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

KINGSTON 34 32 47(79) X(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
KINGSTON 50 7 36(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
KINGSTON 64 2 12(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

...GUSTAV CLOSING IN ON JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES... 75 KM...EAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 350 MILES...560
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A
CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. GUSTAV COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT
DATA IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
CUBA. RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER HAITI TODAY...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.9 N...76.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1500 UTC THU AUG 28 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 76.1W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 76.1W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 75.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.9N 77.1W...NEAR S COAST OF JAMAICA
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.4N 79.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.1N 80.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.2N 82.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 23.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 27.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 29.5N 91.0W...NEAR COAST OF LOUISIANA
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 76.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT ABOUT 1130 UTC SHOWED THE CIRCULATION
CENTER HAD BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE EARLIER THIS MORNING. MY SENSE
FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY SINCE THEN IS THAT GUSTAV HAS STARTED MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD...PERHAPS 265/4. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE CENTER
WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVER JAMAICA OR WILL HUG THE SOUTH OR NORTH
COAST...BUT WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA...ALL MODELS
FORECAST GUSTAV TO CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
ALLOW GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FOLLOWING
FEW DAYS. THE MODELS ALSO FORECAST A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME
FRAME...BUT SUFFICIENTLY PROGRESSIVE SUCH THAT IT WOULD NOT BLOCK
GUSTAV'S NORTHWARD PROGRESS. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...NEAR OR
OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THAT THE HIGH TO THE NORTH LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD FORCE GUSTAV TO TURN A LITTLE BACK TO THE
WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...BUT THESE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
MINORITY. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES SHOW A SLOWING OF
THE FORWARD MOTION AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...AND IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST TO BE IN LINE WITH
THE CONSENSUS. RELIABLE MODELS REMAIN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FORECAST TRACK...SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT OFFICIAL
TRACK.

THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER
AIRCRAFT DATA...AND ANOTHER AIR FORCE PLANE WILL ARRIVE ON THE
SCENE THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO REORGANIZE...BUT THE INTERACTION WITH JAMAICA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO MIGHT LIMIT INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH COULD MAKE GUSTAV A HURRICANE AT ANY
TIME TODAY. AFTER PASSING JAMAICA...GUSTAV WILL ENCOUNTER THE VERY
WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...FAVORING INTENSIFICATION. ANY INTERACTION WITH THE NARROW
LANDMASS OF WESTERN CUBA SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE
STRENGTH OF GUSTAV OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE WATERS WILL BE
WARM BUT WIND SHEAR COULD SLOWLY INCREASE. THE NEW OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE FASTER STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 17.9N 76.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 17.9N 77.1W 65 KT...NEAR JAMAICA
24HR VT 29/1200Z 18.4N 79.0W 70 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 19.1N 80.8W 80 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 20.2N 82.6W 95 KT
72HR VT 31/1200Z 23.5N 86.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 01/1200Z 27.0N 89.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 02/1200Z 29.5N 91.0W 100 KT...NEAR COAST OF LA

$$

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 281758
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

...GUSTAV POURING HEAVY RAINS OVER JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF JAMAICA OR NEAR LATITUDE 17.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...EAST OF
KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 335 MILES...540 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
GRAND CAYMAN.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A
CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. GUSTAV COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME TODAY AS IT MOVES
NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING GUSTAV.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
CUBA. RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER HAITI TODAY...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...17.9 N...76.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
2100 UTC THU AUG 28 2008

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 76.6W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 76.6W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 76.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.4N 77.8W...INLAND OVER JAMAICA
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.1N 79.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.1N 81.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.5N 83.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 28.0N 89.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 30.0N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 76.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

...GUSTAV MOVING ACROSS JAMAICA...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR ABOUT 15
MILES... 25 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 310
MILES...505 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL CROSS
JAMAICA TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHILE GUSTAV CROSSES
JAMAICA...BUT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT
DATA IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
CUBA. RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER HAITI TONIGHT...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...18.1 N...76.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN TIP OF JAMAICA
AT ABOUT 1800 UTC TODAY...BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM AN
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT WAS ABLE TO FLY THROUGH THE
CENTER NEAR THAT TIME. FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS INDICATED THAT
GUSTAV WAS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM AND
HURRICANE INTENSITY...BUT THE DATA WERE NOT QUITE CONVINCING ENOUGH
TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY WHICH REMAINS 60 KT. THE AIRCRAFT
SUBSEQUENTLY DETECTED THE CENTER LOCATED INLAND OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ISLAND. A LITTLE WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT
TERM AS GUSTAV INTERACTS WITH LAND...BUT ONCE IT EMERGES OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY TOMORROW...CONDITIONS
APPEAR RATHER FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. DUE TO THE VERY WARM
WATERS SOUTH OF CUBA...COMBINED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AT SOME POINT
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THAT IS NOT EXPLICITLY
SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE PROHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING EITHER...SO GUSTAV
COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN A FEW DAYS...AS FORECAST
BY ESSENTIALLY ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

GUSTAV IS RESPONDING TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH BY
CONTINUING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 275/5. A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THAT
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
SHOULD IMPART A GRADUAL RIGHT TURN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND GENERALLY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE
WESTERNMOST PROVINCES OF CUBA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MODEL
SPREAD INCREASES OVER THE GULF...HOWEVER...BOTH IN TERMS OF PATH
AND FORWARD SPEED...BOUNDED BY THE FAST GFDL ON THE RIGHT AND A
MUCH SLOWER GFS ON THE LEFT. DESPITE SOME CHANGES IN THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL TRACKS...THE CONSENSUS HAS BARELY BUDGED AND THE
NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
SINCE TRACK FORECASTS ARE ALWAYS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS AT 3-5
DAYS...AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NOTABLE MODEL SPREAD OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO...IT IS SIMPLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND
WHEN GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL. IN FACT...TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE
FORECASTS...THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AT EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST WESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTLINE
OF LOUISIANA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 18.1N 76.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 18.4N 77.8W 55 KT...INLAND OVER JAMAICA
24HR VT 29/1800Z 19.1N 79.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 20.1N 81.7W 80 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 21.5N 83.6W 95 KT
72HR VT 31/1800Z 25.0N 87.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 28.0N 89.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 02/1800Z 30.0N 91.5W 85 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

...CENTER OF GUSTAV NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA...

AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST OR ABOUT
15 MILES... 25 KM...WEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 300 MILES...
485 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL CROSS
JAMAICA TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHILE GUSTAV CROSSES
JAMAICA...BUT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER. KINGSTON RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
49 MPH...80 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ON JAMAICA IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
CUBA. RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER HAITI TONIGHT...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...17.9 N...77.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

...CENTER OF GUSTAV CONTINUES SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF JAMAICA...

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA...FOR THE
PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 275
MILES...445 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS NEAR
OR OVER WESTERN JAMAICA TONIGHT...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...AND APPROACH WESTERN CUBA ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
CUBA. RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER HAITI TONIGHT...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...17.8 N...77.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
0300 UTC FRI AUG 29 2008

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA...FOR THE
PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 77.3W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 77.3W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 77.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.3N 78.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.1N 80.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 85NE 65SE 65SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.4N 82.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 21.9N 84.2W...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.5N 87.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 28.5N 90.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 30.0N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 77.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

THE CENTER OF GUSTAV HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
JAMAICA DURING THE EVENING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE KINGSTON
AREA SHOWED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND THE LOWEST OBSERVED
PRESSURE WAS 990 MB. GUSTAV IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF COLD
CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER...WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/6...AFTER A SOUTH OF
WEST MOTION FOR A FEW HOURS. GUSTAV IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FORECASTS GUSTAV TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...THEN CONTINUE IN
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 96 HR. THE GUIDANCE IS
RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER 96
HR...THERE IS SOME SPREAD...AS THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON
WHETHER A RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF GUSTAV. THE
GFDL MOVES THE STORM QUICKLY INLAND...WHILE THE LATEST GFS RUN
SHOWS IT SLOWING DOWN OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE NOGAPS CALLS
FOR A LEFT TURN AFTER 96 HR TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THAT IS DOWN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE TRACK IS SHIFTED ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AFTER 72 HR....WITH RELIABLE MODEL FORECASTS
REMAINING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TRACK. SINCE TRACK FORECASTS ARE
ALWAYS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS AT 3-5 DAYS...IT IS SIMPLY
IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV
WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. GUSTAV IS SHOWING GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD
ALLOW SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO
RETREAT WESTWARD AS GUSTAV APPROACHES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON
HOW MUCH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE...WITH THE UKMET IN PARTICULAR
SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHEAR AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 99
KT...THE LGEM MODEL 94 KT...THE GFDL 111 KT...AND THE HWRF 137 KT.
THE LATTER IS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFDL. HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE BY 72 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 17.8N 77.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 18.3N 78.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 19.1N 80.4W 75 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 20.4N 82.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 21.9N 84.2W 100 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
72HR VT 01/0000Z 25.5N 87.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 28.5N 90.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 30.0N 92.5W 90 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...CENTER OF GUSTAV EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER WATER SOON...

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA...FOR THE
PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF JAMAICA NEAR LATITUDE 17.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.7 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...WEST OF
KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 255 MILES...415 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
GRAND CAYMAN.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL LEAVE
JAMAICA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS LATER TODAY...AND APPROACH WESTERN CUBA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
DATA IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
CUBA. RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER HAITI TONIGHT...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...17.9 N...77.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA