Gustav Recon Discussion

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x-y-no
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Gustav Recon Discussion

#1 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:42 am

Use this thread to discuss recon.

Is it just me, or are they getting there awfully fast?
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Re: TD Seven Recon Discussion

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:44 am

They are already over Haiti.
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Re: TD Seven Recon Discussion

#3 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:46 am

My prediction is that they will find

Max flight level winds 61 knots
SMRF 46 knots
Pressure 999 millibars

We will see :flag:
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Re: TD Seven Recon Discussion

#4 Postby Chacor » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:48 am

x-y-no wrote:Use this thread to discuss recon.

Is it just me, or are they getting there awfully fast?


They took off around 1500z so it does seem that way, yes. Although they did not leave from Keesler apparently.
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Re: TD Seven Recon Discussion

#5 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:49 am

They departed from Miami.
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#6 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:50 am

NHC sounded the alarm...Those boys and girls are really flying.....I am going to guess they will find a 40kt TS. pressure 1000mb
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Re: TD Seven Recon Discussion

#7 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 25, 2008 11:51 am

cycloneye wrote:They departed from Miami.


OK ... that explains it. 8-)
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Re:

#8 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:23 pm

deltadog03 wrote:NHC sounded the alarm...Those boys and girls are really flying.....I am going to guess they will find a 40kt TS. pressure 1000mb


You'll probably be eating a lot of crow with that guess.
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Re: TD Seven Recon Discussion

#9 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:24 pm

If nothing else this will be the most interesting recon visit in a while. I hope they stay safe (I know they're professionals) and don't get caught off guard by a stronger than expected storm.
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Re: TD Seven Recon Discussion

#10 Postby Lowpressure » Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:27 pm

If we have learned anything this year so far, it is that satellite pictures do not always tell the tale. This looks good, but so did Fay. That clearing feature is very interesting however. Recon will be interesting. I will guess 50kts 997 just for fun.
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Re: TD Seven Recon Discussion

#11 Postby Lowpressure » Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:28 pm

Plane headed straight for the clearing area. If that is indeed the LLC, game on and fast too!!
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Derek Ortt

#12 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:33 pm

the 45KT likely was bogus

however, the FL and pressure data clearly shows a TS
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Re: TD Seven recon obs/maps thread=Plane is investigating TD 7

#13 Postby Toyota Thundra » Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:36 pm

Heloooooo GustAAvv!~ :grr: Here we go :lol:
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Re:

#14 Postby Swimdude » Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:42 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:the 45KT likely was bogus

however, the FL and pressure data clearly shows a TS


Haha... Or not...

"66 kt FL, 52 kt SFMR, pressure 996mb."
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#15 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:45 pm

UH OH....lol...I am wayyyy off.
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Re: TD Seven Recon Discussion

#16 Postby Swimdude » Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:46 pm

Also notice the MAJOR lull in winds when recon passed over the eye feature.
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#17 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 25, 2008 1:00 pm

Well the SE quad is substantially stronger than I expected ...

URNT12 KNHC 251755
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 25/17:33:00Z
B. 15 deg 49 min N
070 deg 30 min W
C. 925 mb NA m
D. 45 kt
E. 322 deg 54 nm
F. 028 deg 058 kt
G. 304 deg 008 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 17 C/ 761 m
J. 22 C/ 760 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/9
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 01EEA INVEST OB 08
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 67 KT SE QUAD 17:36:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB


I have to believe there are stronger winds than that on the north side.
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Re: TD Seven Recon Discussion

#18 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 25, 2008 1:55 pm

My new prediction for this run through the cyclone.

Flight level winds 71 knots
SMRF 58 knots
Pressure 994 millibars.
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#19 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 25, 2008 2:02 pm

Hmm. They climbed to 650mb. Usually they never go above 700, even for the strongest of hurricanes.

PS: Someone want to update the thread title?
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Re: TS Gustav Recon Discussion

#20 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 25, 2008 2:03 pm

I believe they rise above it to go home. I don't know why.
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