ATL HANNA: Advisories

[BirdyCin]

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE HANNA HAS ALMOST COMPLETED A TIGHT CYCLONIC LOOP AND IS
NOW POSSIBLY TURNING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
DECREASED TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...WHICH IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 993 MB BASED ON A DROPSONDE REPORT THAT ALSO
MEASURED 25-KT SURFACE WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/02. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST REASONINGS.
HANNA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
...POSSIBLY IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT
THE 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTAINED UPPER-AIR DATA FROM DROPSONDES
RELEASED AROUND HANNAFROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AIRCRAFT...
WHICH USUALLY PRODUCES BETTER TRACK FORECASTS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED AND FOLLOWS THE
SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WITH HANNA EXPECTED TO REGAIN HURRICANE
STATUS BY 36 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 20.2N 72.2W 50 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 21.5N 72.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 23.2N 74.1W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 24.8N 76.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 27.2N 78.1W 75 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 33.7N 80.0W 70 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/0600Z 42.5N 71.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
120HR VT 08/0600Z 51.0N 55.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[gatorcane]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 031159
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
800 AM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...HANNA CONTINUES ITS ERRATIC MOTION OFF THE NORTH COAST OF
HAITI...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO BAHIA DE
MANZANILLO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...170 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND.

HANNA HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH...8 KM/HR OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN LATER TODAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FORECAST TO
OCCUR ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...AND MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT HANNA
COULD REGAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA WHERE THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FLORIDA EAST
COAST ON FRIDAY.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...20.3 N...71.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1500 UTC WED SEP 03 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN HISPANIOLA FROM PORT
AU PRINCE HAITI NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HANNA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 71.8W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
34 KT.......250NE 200SE 0SW 230NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 90SE 0SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 71.8W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 71.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.5N 72.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 0SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.4N 73.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...250NE 175SE 50SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 25.2N 75.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 75SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 27.3N 77.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 42.0N 71.0W...INLAND AND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 47.0N 60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 71.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...HANNA GETTING LARGER...BUT NOT STRONGER...AS IT EDGES
NORTHWARD...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN HISPANIOLA FROM PORT
AU PRINCE HAITI NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...155 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 75
MILES...125 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA
SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH OR JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT HANNA
COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH TOMORROW OR ON FRIDAY.

HANNA HAS BECOME A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
BY FRIDAY MORNING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...20.6 N...71.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME STRUCTURAL CHANGES WITH HANNA TODAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. THE WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS COMING OUT OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A MEAN CENTER...AND THE
SYSTEM'S CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE CORE. THE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION THAT ENDED AROUND 12Z REPORTED SOME SFMR
WINDS OF UP TO 45 KT ABOUT 70 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 50 KT.

BECAUSE THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED...THE INTIAL MOTION IS HARD
TO GAUGE. MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 360/5...AND THIS COULD BE THE START
OF THE EXPECTED NORTHWESTWARD TURN. THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW OFF THE UPPER U.S. EAST COAST. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN WITH A NORTHWESTWARD ACCELERATION WITH A
RECURVATURE AROUND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO FAST WITH THIS SCENARIO OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...AND GIVEN THE POOR CORE STRUCTURE OF HANNA I AM INCLINED
TO THINK THAT SUBSEQUENT INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER STEERING MAY BE
A LITTLE OVERDONE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET IN TERMS OF SPEED...WITH
THE GFS/HWRF/GFDL SHOWING A MORE VERTICAL SYSTEM MOVING MORE
RAPIDLY. THE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BEEN TRENDING EASTWARD OVER THE
PAST FEW CYCLES...AND I HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY IN THAT
DIRECTION.

WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM BUT SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...TO BE REPLACED WITH MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
SHEAR. THIS PATTERN WOULD PERMIT SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION...BUT
HANNA WILL NEED TO RECREATE AN INNER CORE IN ORDER TO INTENSIFY
SUBSTANTIALLY. THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE STILL BRINGS HANNA TO
MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST ABOVE
THIS GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 20.6N 71.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 21.5N 72.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 23.4N 73.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 25.2N 75.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 27.3N 77.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 33.0N 79.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 07/1200Z 42.0N 71.0W 35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 08/1200Z 47.0N 60.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 031755
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
200 PM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...HANNA BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN HISPANIOLA FROM PORT
AU PRINCE HAITI NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OF JUST SOUTH
OF THE CAICOS ISLANDS.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA
SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH OR JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT HANNA
COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH TOMORROW OR ON FRIDAY.

HANNA IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...EASTERN CUBA...AND PUERTO
RICO. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA...WHERE
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BY FRIDAY MORNING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...21.4 N...72.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
2100 UTC WED SEP 03 2008

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN HISPANIOLA FROM PORT
AU PRINCE HAITI NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HANNA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 71.9W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 85NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
34 KT.......250NE 200SE 0SW 230NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 90SE 30SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 71.9W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 72.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.2N 72.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 85NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 30SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 25.2N 74.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...250NE 175SE 50SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 27.4N 76.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 75SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.0N 78.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.8N 76.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 44.5N 67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 48.0N 55.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 71.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN HISPANIOLA FROM PORT
AU PRINCE HAITI NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...NORTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 60 MILES
... 95 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA
SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH OR JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND HANNA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND EASTERN CUBA. ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
BY FRIDAY MORNING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...21.9 N...71.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

AN ASCAT PASS FROM 14Z REVEALED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF
HANNA WAS BECOMING ELONGATED IN RESPONSE TO THE ASYMMETRIC
DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION. IN SPITE OF THIS...DATA FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HANNA IS BECOMING A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 989 MB. THE
AIRCRAFT DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ABOUT
50 KT.

A MORE DEFINITIVE NORTHWARD MOTION HAS COMMENCED...WITH THE INITIAL
ESTIMATE BEING 360/10. THE UPPER LOW OFF OF NEW ENGLAND IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT...AND AS IT DOES SO MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND IT. HANNA SEEMS TO BE FOLLOWING THE CONVECTION
FAIRLY WELL...AND I'VE HAD TO SPEED UP MY PREVIOUS FORECAST A
LITTLE BIT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE HWRF AND GFDL CONTINUE TO BE
FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND IF HANNA DEVELOPS FASTER
THAN SHOWN BELOW ADDITIONAL TIMING ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE.
IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT CONNECTING THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST POINTS
WITH A STRAIGHT LINE GIVES A MISLEADING UNDERESTIMATE OF THE
THREAT TO THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS. ONLY A GRADUAL
RIGHT TURN IS EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS.

AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE BAHAMAS AND HANNA SEPARATE...THE SOUTHERLY
SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND LESSEN. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING...ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS SHOWS VERY
MUCH. THE SHIPS AND LGEM BRING THE SYSTEM ONLY TO 60 KT...AND THE
HWRF NOT QUITE THAT HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL WHICH BRINGS HANNA TO 70 KT PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 21.9N 71.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 23.2N 72.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 25.2N 74.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 27.4N 76.6W 65 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 30.0N 78.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 36.8N 76.9W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1800Z 44.5N 67.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 08/1800Z 48.0N 55.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

075
WTNT33 KNHC 032350
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
800 PM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...HANNA BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN HISPANIOLA FROM PORT
AU PRINCE HAITI NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST OR ABOUT 200
MILES...320 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR IN THE BAHAMAS AND
395 MILES...630 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT HANNA HAS
BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. HOWEVER...
HANNA SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA SHOULD BE MOVING
THROUGH OR JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...105
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND HANNA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND EASTERN CUBA. ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
BY FRIDAY MORNING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...22.6 N...71.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
0300 UTC THU SEP 04 2008

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS REPLACED
THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE BAHAMAS
AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HISPANIOLA
FROM PORT AU PRINCE HAITI NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST EARLY THURSDAY AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 72.1W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 85NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
34 KT.......250NE 200SE 30SW 230NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 240SE 0SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 72.1W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 71.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 24.7N 73.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 85NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 30SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 26.9N 75.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...250NE 175SE 50SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 29.3N 77.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 75SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 32.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 39.5N 74.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 46.5N 63.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 49.0N 47.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 72.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...TENACIOUS HANNA HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...WEATHER BEGINNING
TO IMPROVE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS REPLACED
THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE BAHAMAS
AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HISPANIOLA
FROM PORT AU PRINCE HAITI NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST EARLY THURSDAY AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES...260 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR AND ABOUT 355 MILES
...575 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA SHOULD BE MOVING JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HANNA COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE BAHAMAS.
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PUERTO RICO. TOTALS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
BY FRIDAY MORNING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE ADJACENT WATERS OVERNIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...23.2 N...72.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

HANNA HAS BEEN A TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE. SINCE ITS FORMATION IT
HAS FOUGHT TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR AND THE
EFFECTS OF LAND. FURTHERMORE...AT TIMES HANNA HAS RESEMBLED A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. SURFACE AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS TONIGHT
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT HANNA HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND SATELLITE
IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR IS DECREASING AND HANNA IS DEVELOPING
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THESE CHANGES IN THE UPPER FLOW OVER HANNA
HAVE BEEN ACCURATELY FORECAST BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 55 KNOTS...AND IS
BASED ON A 68 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASURED AS THE PLANE DEPARTED
THE CYCLONE. WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HANNA IS
FORECAST TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS IN A DAY OR TWO BUT IT COULD
OCCUR EARLIER. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE INTENSIFIES HANNA BEYOND 70
KNOTS.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN ROTATING AROUND A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE AND FIXES
FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DATA FROM A NOAA BUOY SUGGEST
THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/11. SOME OF THIS MOTION COULD HAVE
RESULTED FROM REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. SINCE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF HANNA...A NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. THE TRACK
MODELS ARE NOT TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST IS NOT VERY HIGH. HOWEVER...THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE HAS HANNA MOVING OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. BECAUSE HANNA IS A LARGE CYCLONE...A HURRICANE WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST EARLY THURSDAY.

A NOAA JET HAS SAMPLED THE ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT AND THE DATA IS BEING
USED TO INITIALIZE THE 00Z GLOBAL MODEL RUNS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 23.2N 72.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 24.7N 73.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 26.9N 75.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 29.3N 77.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 32.0N 79.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 39.5N 74.0W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 08/0000Z 46.5N 63.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/0000Z 49.0N 47.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
200 AM AST THU SEP 04 2008

...HANNA HEADING NORTHWESTWARD JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE BAHAMAS
AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST OR ABOUT 325
MILES...525 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA SHOULD BE MOVING JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND HANNA COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE BAHAMAS.
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PUERTO RICO. TOTALS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
BY FRIDAY MORNING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE ADJACENT WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...23.7 N...72.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Hockey007]

000
WTNT23 KNHC 040846
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
0900 UTC THU SEP 04 2008

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SURF
CITY NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO
BEACH SOUTHWESTWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE BAHAMAS
AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 72.8W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
34 KT.......250NE 200SE 30SW 230NW.
12 FT SEAS..325NE 325SE 60SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 72.8W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 72.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 25.3N 74.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 30SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 27.5N 76.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 60SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.3N 78.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 60SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.5N 78.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...225NE 175SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 41.0N 72.5W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 48.5N 59.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 51.5N 41.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 72.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

000
WTNT33 KNHC 040847
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM AST THU SEP 04 2008

...SPRAWLING HANNA HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SURF
CITY NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO
BEACH SOUTHWESTWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE BAHAMAS
AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST OR ABOUT 295
MILES...480 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 770 MILES...1235
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA WILL PASS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY...AND WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND HANNA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...24.0 N...72.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

000
WTNT43 KNHC 040900
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

LOOKS CAN CERTAINLY BE DECEIVING. HANNA HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING VERY
MUCH DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AN EARLIER STRONG BURST DIED AFTER ABOUT
04Z...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST CONTINUES TO IMPOSE STRONG
SOUTHERLY SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS...HANNA HAS A LARGE AND ROBUST
CIRCULATION...AND A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS RECENTLY
REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 990 MB. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
AT 850 MB HAVE BEEN AS STRONG AS 65 KT...AND NUMEROUS SFMR VALUES
OF 55-60 KT HAVE BEEN RETRIEVED. I HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO DISCOUNT
THE SFMR WINDS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.
GIVEN THAT THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
TO PERSIST OVER HANNA EVEN AS IT GAINS LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...STRENGTHENING WOULD AT FIRST GLANCE SEEM UNLIKELY.
CONSISTENT WITH THAT THINKING...THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR EVEN SOME WEAKENING...EXCEPT MUCH LATER WHEN
HANNA BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
SHIPS AND LGEM...DESPITE DIAGNOSING LITTLE CHANGE IN
SHEAR...FORECAST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS. A
CONSENSUS OF THESE VARIOUS MODELS WOULD YIELD A FLAT 60 KT
INTENSITY FORECAST UNTIL HANNA PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE
CAROLINAS...BUT FOR CONTINUITY AND SINCE HANNA IS ALREADY PRODUCING
WINDS JUST SHY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH....65 KT IS STILL SHOWN
EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST AS
HANNA ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

DESPITE HAVING AIRCRAFT FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO
GAGE...PROBABLY DUE TO THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE
CIRCULATION...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/10. HANNA
SHOULD ROUND THE BUILDING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND ROUGHLY HUG
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...BUT PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG THE WAY. PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO THE
BENEFIT OF DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET MISSION LAST NIGHT...THE
LATEST MODEL TRACKS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE TIGHTER AGREEMENT...AND
IN GENERAL THEY HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...TO BE
CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS. AS ALWAYS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT FORECAST OF THE CENTER...ESPECIALLY SINCE MUCH OF THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA IS WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.


Tropical Storm HANNA Forecast Discussion
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

US Watch/Warning

000
WTNT43 KNHC 040900
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

LOOKS CAN CERTAINLY BE DECEIVING. HANNA HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING VERY
MUCH DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AN EARLIER STRONG BURST DIED AFTER ABOUT
04Z...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST CONTINUES TO IMPOSE STRONG
SOUTHERLY SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS...HANNA HAS A LARGE AND ROBUST
CIRCULATION...AND A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS RECENTLY
REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 990 MB. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
AT 850 MB HAVE BEEN AS STRONG AS 65 KT...AND NUMEROUS SFMR VALUES
OF 55-60 KT HAVE BEEN RETRIEVED. I HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO DISCOUNT
THE SFMR WINDS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.
GIVEN THAT THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
TO PERSIST OVER HANNA EVEN AS IT GAINS LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...STRENGTHENING WOULD AT FIRST GLANCE SEEM UNLIKELY.
CONSISTENT WITH THAT THINKING...THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR EVEN SOME WEAKENING...EXCEPT MUCH LATER WHEN
HANNA BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
SHIPS AND LGEM...DESPITE DIAGNOSING LITTLE CHANGE IN
SHEAR...FORECAST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS. A
CONSENSUS OF THESE VARIOUS MODELS WOULD YIELD A FLAT 60 KT
INTENSITY FORECAST UNTIL HANNA PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE
CAROLINAS...BUT FOR CONTINUITY AND SINCE HANNA IS ALREADY PRODUCING
WINDS JUST SHY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH....65 KT IS STILL SHOWN
EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST AS
HANNA ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

DESPITE HAVING AIRCRAFT FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO
GAGE...PROBABLY DUE TO THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE
CIRCULATION...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/10. HANNA
SHOULD ROUND THE BUILDING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND ROUGHLY HUG
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...BUT PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG THE WAY. PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO THE
BENEFIT OF DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET MISSION LAST NIGHT...THE
LATEST MODEL TRACKS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE TIGHTER AGREEMENT...AND
IN GENERAL THEY HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...TO BE
CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS. AS ALWAYS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT FORECAST OF THE CENTER...ESPECIALLY SINCE MUCH OF THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA IS WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0900Z 24.0N 72.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 25.3N 74.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 27.5N 76.6W 60 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 30.3N 78.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 33.5N 78.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 41.0N 72.5W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 08/0600Z 48.5N 59.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/0600Z 51.5N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

Edit: Fixed it, Ike looks like Hanna at 5am.

[Thunder44]

Hockey007, you posted the advisory for Ike in Hanna's thread.

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 041143
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
800 AM AST THU SEP 04 2008

...HANNA PASSING NEAR THE BAHAMAS...

AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA...AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTHWESTWARD
TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST OR ABOUT 280
MILES...455 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 760 MILES...1220
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA WILL PASS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY...AND WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...RAINS AND
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA WILL REACH THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND HANNA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...24.1 N...73.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1500 UTC THU SEP 04 2008

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD
TO OKRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO OKRACOKE INLET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTHWARD
TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 73.5W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
34 KT.......275NE 200SE 30SW 230NW.
12 FT SEAS..325NE 325SE 60SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 73.5W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 73.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 26.2N 75.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
34 KT...275NE 200SE 30SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 28.7N 77.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 60SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 31.7N 78.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 0SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 175SE 60SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 35.4N 77.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 43.0N 69.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...175NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 50.0N 54.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 51.5N 37.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 73.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM AST THU SEP 04 2008

...HANNA CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD
TO OKRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO OKRACOKE INLET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTHWARD
TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST OR ABOUT 245
MILES...400 KM...EAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 720 MILES...1160 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
HANNA WILL PASS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY...AND WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...RAINS AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA
WILL REACH THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY...HOWEVER...
HANNA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY PRIOR TO REACHING THE
COASTLINE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 315 MILES...510
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HANNA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...24.5 N...73.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS CHOKING OFF CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE OF
HANNA...AND THE CYCLONE HAS A VERY SUBTROPICAL APPEARANCE.
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS
AND THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS HAVE COME DOWN AS WELL.
BASED ON SOME 52 KT SFMR WINDS AROUND 11Z...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 55 KT.

CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING RIGHT NOW...WITH
MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND POOR THERMODYNAMICS. THE GFS SUGGESTS
THAT DRY AIR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE UP TO LANDFALL.
HOWEVER...AS HANNA AND THE UPPER LOW BEGIN TO SEPARATE SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL
LESSEN SOMEWHAT. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION...AND
SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW HANNA ATTAINING
HURRICANE STRENGTH. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
HWRF...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE IS LOWER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/10. THE FORECAST SCENARIO IS UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A DEEP LAYER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM NEW
ENGLAND. HANNA IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE FORECAST TRACK IS REQUIRED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BECAUSE THE BETTER
PERFORMING MODELS THIS YEAR...NAMELY THE GFS AND GFDL...ARE ON THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. BECAUSE OF THE LARGE...
SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE EXACT TRAJECTORY OF THE
CENTER IS RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 24.5N 73.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 26.2N 75.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 28.7N 77.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 31.7N 78.2W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 35.4N 77.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 43.0N 69.5W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 08/1200Z 50.0N 54.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/1200Z 51.5N 37.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
200 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

...HANNA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE NORTHWEST...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA TO OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTHWARD
TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT 205
MILES...330 KM...EAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 670 MILES...1080 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
HANNA WILL PASS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY...AND WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...RAINS AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA
WILL REACH THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY...HOWEVER...
HANNA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY PRIOR TO REACHING THE
COASTLINE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 315 MILES...510
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HANNA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...25.1 N...74.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
2100 UTC THU SEP 04 2008

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW
IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK
BEACH LIGHT...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO GREAT EGG INLET NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL POTOMAC...
WASHINGTON D.C...AND THE DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
SOUTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 75.0W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
34 KT.......275NE 225SE 30SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 420SE 60SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 75.0W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 74.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 27.2N 76.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
34 KT...275NE 225SE 30SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.3N 78.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 90NW.
34 KT...275NE 225SE 60SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.9N 78.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...250NE 175SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 37.5N 76.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 46.0N 65.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 51.0N 50.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 52.5N 32.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 75.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HANNA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW
IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK
BEACH LIGHT...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO GREAT EGG INLET NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL POTOMAC...
WASHINGTON D.C...AND THE DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
SOUTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST OR ABOUT 155
MILES...250 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 625 MILES...1005
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
HANNA WILL PASS JUST EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY...AND WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...RAINS AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA
WILL REACH THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL...
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR HANNA TO BECOME A HURRICANE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 315 MILES...510
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

HANNA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE GEORGIA
COAST SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY RESULT IN FLOODING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF HANNA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...25.5 N...75.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING HANNA IS FINDING THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AT 850 MB DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MEAN
CENTER OF ROTATION APPARENT IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES. THERE ARE ALSO
MULTIPLE SWIRLS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS
JUMPED A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTIVE
ASYMMETRY. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE MORE SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE...THE
ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WITH
TIME...THAT IS...MORE ALONG THE TRACK...AND THEN HAVE LESS OF AN
IMPACT ON THE TRACK. THE BASIC FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT LEFTWARD SHIFT...AND IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

RECONNAISSANCE DATA THUS FAR DO NOT SUPPORT ANY INCREASE IN THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY
AIR IMPINGING ON HANNA FROM THE SOUTHEAST...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH A
LITTLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODELS
NOW MAKE HANNA A HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW
TOPS OUT AT 60 KT. HURRICANE WATCHES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT HANNA BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
FORECAST...AND PEOPLE ARE REMINDED THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A MINIMAL HURRICANE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 25.5N 75.0W 55 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 27.2N 76.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 30.3N 78.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 33.9N 78.3W 60 KT...ON THE COAST
48HR VT 06/1800Z 37.5N 76.5W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/1800Z 46.0N 65.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 08/1800Z 51.0N 50.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/1800Z 52.5N 32.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
800 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

...LARGE HANNA BEGINNING TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT STILL
WINDY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER NORTHWARD TO GREAT EGG INLET NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL POTOMAC...WASHINGTON D.C...AND THE
DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
SOUTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
ESTIMATED LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 75 MILES...125 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARSH HARBOR IN THE
BAHAMAS AND ABOUT 580 MILES...940 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
HANNA WILL PASS JUST EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...
AND WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...RAINS AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA
WILL REACH THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL...
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR HANNA TO BECOME A HURRICANE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 315 MILES...510
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

HANNA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE GEORGIA
COAST SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY RESULT IN FLOODING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF HANNA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...26.0 N...76.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
0300 UTC FRI SEP 05 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO GREAT EGG INLET NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL POTOMAC...
WASHINGTON D.C...AND THE DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
SOUTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 76.3W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 0SE 20SW 90NW.
34 KT.......275NE 225SE 60SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 270SE 60SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 76.3W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 75.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 28.5N 77.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 0SE 20SW 90NW.
34 KT...275NE 225SE 30SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 31.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 90NW.
34 KT...275NE 225SE 60SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 35.0N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...250NE 175SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 39.0N 75.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 46.0N 62.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 50.5N 44.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 51.2N 27.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 76.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

...LARGE HANNA HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO GREAT EGG INLET NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL POTOMAC...
WASHINGTON D.C...AND THE DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
SOUTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND AND ABOUT 540 MILES...
870 KM...SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
HANNA WILL CLEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EARLY FRIDAY...AND WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES BY LATE
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...RAINS AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA
WILL REACH THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL...
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR HANNA TO BECOME A HURRICANE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 315 MILES...510 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

HANNA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE GEORGIA
COAST SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY RESULT IN FLOODING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF HANNA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...26.5 N...76.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 987 MB AND
60 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL ON ITS WAY HOME A FEW HOURS AGO. SINCE
THEN SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE CENTER COULD BE
UNDER THE CONVECTION OR VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE CLOUD
PATTERN ON IR IMAGES INDICATE THAT HANNA LOOKS A LITTLE MORE
TROPICAL THAN EARLIER TODAY BUT THE CYCLONE STILL HAS A LARGE WIND
FIELD AND LACKS AN INNER CORE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55
KNOTS AND ANOTHER PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS TO CHECK
IF THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS HANNA TO
60 KNOTS BEFORE IT REACHES THE UNITED STATES COAST. PEOPLE ARE
REMINDED THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM AND A MINIMAL HURRICANE...ONLY A FIVE KNOT
DIFFERENCE.

SURFACE DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE FIXES
INDICATE THAT HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES
AT 12 KNOTS...STEERED BY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE ERODED BY
AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE HANNA TO MOVE
ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO BE
FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND RACE TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. THIS IS BASICALLY THE
SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.

IF HANNA BECOMES MORE TROPICAL AS SUGGESTED BY THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION...THE WIND FIELD MOST LIKELY WILL CONTRACT A LITTLE BIT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 26.5N 76.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 28.5N 77.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 31.5N 78.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 35.0N 78.0W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 07/0000Z 39.0N 75.0W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 08/0000Z 46.0N 62.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 09/0000Z 50.5N 44.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 10/0000Z 51.2N 27.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

...HANNA ACCELERATING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO
SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO GREAT EGG INLET NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL POTOMAC...
WASHINGTON D.C...AND THE DELAWARE BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH
RIVER SOUTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 27.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...90 KM...NORTH OF
GREAT ABACO ISLAND AND ABOUT 490 MILES...790 KM...SOUTH OF
WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
HANNA WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER...RAINS AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA
WILL REACH THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.

DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL...
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR HANNA TO BECOME A HURRICANE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 315 MILES...510 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 984
MB...29.05 INCHES.

HANNA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE GEORGIA
COAST SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY RESULT IN FLOODING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF HANNA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...27.2 N...77.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 051143
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

...HANNA ACCELERATING NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA
SOUND GEORGIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO CHINCOTEAGUE
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...AND NORTHWARD
INTO CHESAPEAKE BAY TO SMITH POINT.

THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE
VIRGINIA TO SANDY HOOK JERSEY...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH
OF SMITH POINT...THE TIDAL POTOMAC...WASHINGTON D.C...AND THE
DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT
115 MILES...185 KM...EAST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA AND ABOUT
425 MILES...680 KM...SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...29 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
HANNA WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER...RAINS AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA
WILL REACH THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR HANNA TO BECOME A
HURRICANE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 315 MILES...510 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND COASTAL
GEORGIA. RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...SOUTHERN NEW YORK...AND
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF HANNA.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...28.2 N...78.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Chacor]

Canadian Hurricane Centre:

WOCN31 CWHX 051230 CCA
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.30 AM ADT
FRIDAY 05 SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

CORRECTION FOR WIND RADII ONLY.

... POST-TROPICAL STORM HANNA MOVING THROUGH MARITIMES SUNDAY ...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
28.2 N AND LONGITUDE 78.8 W... ABOUT 370 NAUTICAL MILES OR 680 KM
SOUTH OF WILMINGTON, NORTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 980 MB.
HANNA IS
MOVING NORTH AT 15 KNOTS... 29 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 05 9.00 AM 28.2N 78.8W 980 55 102
SEP 05 9.00 PM 31.8N 78.9W 980 60 111
SEP 06 9.00 AM 35.2N 77.9W 997 50 93 TRANSITIONING
SEP 06 9.00 PM 38.8N 74.7W 999 45 83 TRANSITIONING
SEP 07 9.00 AM 42.3N 69.0W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 07 9.00 PM 46.0N 61.5W 999 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 9.00 AM 48.7N 52.9W 999 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 08 9.00 PM 50.1N 44.1W 995 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 09 9.00 AM 50.8N 34.9W 991 45 83 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS. HOWEVER HANNA WILL
BRING WIND AND RAIN TO ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A LEADING AREA OF MOISTURE FORMING WELL AHEAD OF HANNA WILL SPREAD
OVER THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. CURRENTLY WE ARE FORECASTING
AMOUNTS UP TO 20 MM ON SATURDAY WITH THIS PRECURSOR BATCH OF RAIN.
THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT THIS PRECURSOR BATCH OF RAIN AS IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT FORECAST AMOUNTS WILL HAVE TO BE DOUBLED.
THIS IS WORRISOME GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUND AFTER A MONTH OF
ABNORMALLY HIGH RAINFALL IN NOVA SCOTIA. HARVEST SEASON IS WELL
ON THE WAY IN NOVA SCOTIA SO AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS WILL BE
CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
AGAIN TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS... BUT BASED ON LATEST
PROJECTIONS HANNA MAY BRING GALES TO MARITIME WATERS ON SUNDAY AND
INTO NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS ON MONDAY. LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HANNA
AND THE DISTANT HURRICANE IKE SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH MARITIME WATERS
ON SATURDAY HOWEVER WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULDN'T CLIMB ABOVE 3 METRES
UNTIL HANNA ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION BLOSSOMING TO NW OF HANNA. WATER
VAPOUR IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASING DRY AREA TO EAST AND SOUTH OF CENTRE.
AIRCRAFT SHOWS AN INFERRED WIND OF 55 KNOTS. USING NHC 12 ZULU FIX.

B. PROGNOSTIC
THE CHC TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO MIAMI'S TRACK THROUGH CANADIAN
TERRITORY. TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND OVER THE CAROLINAS AND AS IT MOVES OVER THE COLD WATER EAST
OF CAPE COD. PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT HANNA WILL BE POST
TROPICAL AS IT MOVES INTO THE MARITIME MARINE DISTRICT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A FORECAST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING TO THE EAST
OF THE TRACK AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK.

VARIOUS MODEL RUNS BASED ON 00 ZULU INPUT SHOW A CLUSTERING IN BOTH
SPEED AND TRACK.. HENCEFORTH TAKING HANNA ACROSS THE MARITIMES ON
SUNDAY. CHC AND MIAMI TAKE A CONSENSUS ON THESE MODEL RUNS.
HOWEVER EVEN SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO DISTRIBUTION OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND
RAINFALL.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
THERE MAY BE CONFUSION AMONGST THE MEDIA AND PUBLIC ABOUT THE RAIN
FORECAST ON SATURDAY FOR THE MARITIMES AS MANY MAY BELIEVE THAT
HANNA HAS ARRIVED EARLY. IN FACT.. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH 3 AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION; THE FIRST ONE IS A BATCH OF RAIN THAT WILL MOVE
WELL AHEAD OF HANNA IN THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY JETSTREAM; THE
SECOND IS THE RAIN FORECAST WITH HANNA ON SUNDAY AND THE THIRD IS
THE RAIN FORECAST AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK FROM
THE WEST LATE SATURDAY EVENING. AS SEEN MANY TIMES WITH THESE TYPES
OF SCENARIOS..RAIN FROM HANNA WILL SPREAD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT ON SUNDAY AND THEN THE FRONT WILL STALL AND BECOME
INCORPORATED INTO HANNA. THIS SORT OF DYNAMICS WILL GIVE HEAVY RAIN
WHICH CEASES ONCE HANNA MOVES AWAY.

D. MARINE WEATHER
WIND RADII OF TRANSITIONING SYSTEM REFLECTS ENVIRONMENT PLUS
TROPICAL SYSTEM.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
05/12Z 275 225 60 120 90 0 20 90 0 0 0 0
06/00Z 275 225 60 120 90 25 0 90 0 0 0 0
06/12Z 275 200 60 100 50 25 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/00Z 250 200 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/12Z 225 200 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/00Z 225 200 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/12Z 100 250 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
09/00Z 100 250 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
09/12Z 100 250 200 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

END CAMPBELL/HATT/BOWYER

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1500 UTC FRI SEP 05 2008

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE UNITED
STATES EAST COAST IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING ALL OF CHESAPEAKE BAY....THE TIDAL POTOMAC...
WASHINGTON D.C...AND DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL WARNING IS NOW
IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS...INCLUDING ALL OF CHESAPEAKE BAY....THE TIDAL POTOMAC...
WASHINGTON D.C...AND DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
NORTH OF CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 79.2W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 20SW 90NW.
34 KT.......275NE 225SE 60SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 220SE 150SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 79.2W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 78.8W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 31.2N 79.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 90NW.
34 KT...275NE 225SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 34.5N 79.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...275NE 225SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 38.2N 76.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...250NE 175SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 42.5N 70.1W...OVER WATER EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 49.0N 52.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 200SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 50.5N 35.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 51.0N 18.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 79.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

...CENTER OF HANNA OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...WARNINGS AND
WATCHES EXTENDED NORTHWARD...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE UNITED
STATES EAST COAST IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING ALL OF CHESAPEAKE BAY....THE TIDAL POTOMAC...
WASHINGTON D.C...AND DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL WARNING IS NOW
IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS...INCLUDING ALL OF CHESAPEAKE BAY....THE TIDAL POTOMAC...
WASHINGTON D.C...AND DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
NORTH OF CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST OR ABOUT 110
MILES...180 KM...EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA AND ABOUT 375 MILES
...600 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA WILL BE NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL...
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR HANNA TO BECOME A HURRICANE.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 315 MILES...510 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF HANNA.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES
FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINA...MARYLAND...AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST AND COASTAL GEORGIA. THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS HANNA
ADVANCES NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THERE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...28.9 N...79.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D INDICATE
THAT HANNA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AS
THE LATEST CONVECTIVE BURST HAS PRODUCED AN INNER WIND CORE.
HOWEVER...THE RADAR-OBSERVED VELOCITIES DO NOT YET SUGGEST
INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.

THE CENTER OF HANNA JOGGED WESTWARD BETWEEN 06-12Z. HOWEVER...THE
MELBOURNE RADAR SUGGEST THE CENTER HAS RESUMED A MORE NORTHWARD
MOTIONS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 325/17. HANNA IS
MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SHOULD ENTER THE WESTERLIES IN 24-48 HR. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION.
ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AMONGST THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 36 HR
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION...AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK THEREAFTER.

WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE STILL
ISSUES...THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT NEAR LANDFALL. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT HANNA WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HR. THE
GFS AND UKMET SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF DEEPENING AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN
THE 96 AND 120 HR FORECASTS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 28.9N 79.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 31.2N 79.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 34.5N 79.1W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 07/0000Z 38.2N 76.1W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 07/1200Z 42.5N 70.1W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 08/1200Z 49.0N 52.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 09/1200Z 50.5N 35.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 10/1200Z 51.0N 18.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN