ATL HANNA: Advisories

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM AST THU AUG 28 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...EXPECTED TO
PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
57.9 WEST OR ABOUT 355 MILES...575 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...8
KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON
THIS TRACK THE DEPRESSION WILL BE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY OR FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...19.8 N...57.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
0900 UTC THU AUG 28 2008

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 57.9W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 57.9W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 57.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.5N 58.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.0N 64.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 26.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 27.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 27.0N 70.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 57.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


NNNN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS
BEEN TRACKED WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH SURFACE CIRCULATION AND DEEP
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A
SHIP VERY NEAR THE CENTER ALSO REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1005 MB NEAR
THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5 AND 3.0
RESPECTIVELY. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 30 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH
THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
CONVECTION...THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE
HAS BEEN GRADUALLY ABATING AND THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED
IN ALL QUADRANTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT RIDGING
WILL PREVAIL ALOFT...RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR. A
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY AND COULD REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 3 DAYS.
THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE...PREDICTING AN
INTENSE HURRICANE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5
KNOTS WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. THE LARGE
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO
BE REPLACED BY A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO TAKE A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK IN A DAY OR SO. THE FLOW AROUND AN UPPER-LOW JUST NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO COULD ALSO INDUCE SOME WESTWARD COMPONENT OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE STEERING FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND THE CYCLONE COULD MEANDER FOR A WHILE. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
WHICH INDEED SHOWS A WESTWARD TRACK BEYOND 4 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 19.8N 57.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 58.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 22.0N 60.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 23.5N 62.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 25.0N 64.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 26.0N 67.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 27.0N 69.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 27.0N 70.5W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM AST THU AUG 28 2008

...HANNA BECOMES EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST OR ABOUT 305
MILES...490 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...HANNA WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND BE CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

HANNA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH
POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...20.5 N...59.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1500 UTC THU AUG 28 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 59.2W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 59.2W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 58.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.4N 60.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.8N 61.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.4N 63.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 25.7N 65.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 27.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 27.5N 70.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 27.5N 71.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 59.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS AND LATEST DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 35 KT. BASED ON
THIS INFORMATION...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
HANNA. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT HANNA'S LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
INDICATING WESTERLY SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
THE WEST IS IMPACTING THE SYSTEM. SINCE THE OCEAN IS PLENTY
WARM...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PRIMARILY A FUNCTION OF HOW HANNA
INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
PLACING HANNA IN A LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH AMPLE
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT WOULD FAVOR
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD IT MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...THERE IS A FINE LINE BETWEEN A FAVORABLE AND UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT SPACING BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND HANNA TO
PROMOTE STRENGTHENING. BY DAY 5...UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV
COULD IMPART NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
INTENSITY.

HANNA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 300/10...DURING
THE LAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS HANNA MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE
TRACK BECOMES MUCH LESS CERTAIN AS IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW HANNA
WILL INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE
OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW HANNA
BEING LEFT BEHIND IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING. HOWEVER...THE
TRADITIONALLY GOOD PERFORMING GFS FORECASTS HANNA TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THE
FORMER OF THOSE SCENARIOS AND SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 20.5N 59.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 21.4N 60.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 22.8N 61.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 24.4N 63.7W 55 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 25.7N 65.6W 60 KT
72HR VT 31/1200Z 27.0N 68.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 01/1200Z 27.5N 70.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 02/1200Z 27.5N 71.5W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM AST THU AUG 28 2008

...HANNA STRUGGLING AS IT CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES...420 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...HANNA WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND BE CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

HANNA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...20.7 N...60.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
2100 UTC THU AUG 28 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 60.1W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 60.1W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 59.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.7N 61.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.4N 63.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.9N 65.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.9N 67.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 27.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 27.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 27.5N 71.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 60.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

AFTER LOOKING QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...VERTICAL SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON HANNA AND THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME COMPLETELY EXPOSED. WHILE IT IS
TEMPTING TO LOWER THE INTENSITY BASED ON THIS TREND...IT IS BEST TO
KEEP HANNA AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE LACK
OF ORGANIZATION NOTWITHSTANDING...THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
REMAINS UNCHANGED. DYNAMICAL MODELS INSISTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY IMPARTING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
WESTWARD ALLOWING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CYCLONE. SIMILARLY...THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS
ARE BASING THEIR FORECAST ON A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ANALYSIS OF
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS NOT
BUDGED ALL DAY SO IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT RELAX IN
THE SHORT-TERM. THIS IS THE BASIS FOR THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
WHICH IS BELOW THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. IF THE UPPER-LOW
DOES EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT OF HANNA'S WAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING. BY DAY 5...UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM
GUSTAV COULD IMPART NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA POSSIBLY AFFECTING
THE INTENSITY.

HANNA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 300/10. HOWEVER...A
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS
HANNA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOMES A DEEPER SYSTEM.
THEREAFTER...THE TRACK FORECAST IS RIDDLED WITH UNCERTAINTY AS IT
IS UNCLEAR HOW HANNA WILL INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH BYPASSING HANNA TO THE NORTH AND LEAVING IT
BEHIND IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING. SUCH AN EVOLUTION WOULD RESULT
IN ERRATIC OR LITTLE OVERALL MOTION. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5. IT SHOULD BE
ADDED THAT THERE IS LARGER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH
BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS OF HANNA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 20.7N 60.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 21.7N 61.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 23.4N 63.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 24.9N 65.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 25.9N 67.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 31/1800Z 27.0N 69.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 27.5N 70.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 02/1800Z 27.5N 71.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM AST THU AUG 28 2008

...HANNA STRENGTHENS NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.6 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES...415 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HANNA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND HANNA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

HANNA'S SOUTHERN TRAILING RAIN BANDS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...21.1 N...60.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN

TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
0300 UTC FRI AUG 29 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 60.6W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 10SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 60.6W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 60.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.8N 62.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.2N 64.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.6N 66.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.7N 68.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.6N 70.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 26.5N 71.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 26.0N 71.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 60.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN

[gatorcane]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 290259
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

AFTER WESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR PRODUCED AN EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED WITH A
VENGEANCE OVER OR NEAR THE CENTER CONTAINING CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS
-83C. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE A BURSTING
PATTERN...WHICH IS USUALLY SHORT-LIVED. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
45 KT BASED ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND THE
CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SINCE THE 00Z SATELLITE FIX TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/06. HANNA HAD BEEN MOVING DUE
WEST AT ABOUT 10 KT...BUT THE 24-HOUR MOTION OF THE PRESSURE
ENVELOPE SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE CENTER HAS ONLY BEEN MOVING AT
AROUND 5 KT. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISMS FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS
WILL BE THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE NORTH OF HANNA AND THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED ABOUT 275 NMI WEST OF HANNA. ALL OF
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AND MOVING THE UPPER-LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST TOO QUICKLY...WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FAST OUTFLOW
FROM GUSTAV GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE LOW AND KEEPING IT STRONGER
THAN THE MODEL FORECASTS. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV IS NOW
BEING SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...SO A
WEAKENING TREND AND SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION BY THE UPPER-LOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENSUE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HANNA IS FORECAST TO
MOVE AROUND THE UPPER-LOW THROUGH 72-96 HOURS BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS
STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A POWERFUL
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE U.S.
EAST COAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THAT DEVELOPING SCENARIO IS INDICATED
BY ALMOST ALL OF THE MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES...BUT ENOUGH TO
INDUCE SOME SOUTHWARD COMPONENT TO HANNA'S MOTION. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A FAST AND RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS THE PAST 36
HOURS...SO THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS ADVISORY WAS ADJUSTED TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN REPLACED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY SHEAR
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS NOW THAT THE UPPER-LOW HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF
WEAKENING AND MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM HANNA. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN AND MOVES TO A POSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HANNA...
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW SHOULD IMPROVE TO THE NORTHWEST AIDING A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION. ALTHOUGH NOT INDICATED AT ANY OF THE FORECAST
TIMES... ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 72 AND 96
HOURS...AND HANNA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AS INDICATED BY
THE GFDL MODEL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND
GFDL MODELS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE LGEM MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 21.1N 60.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 21.8N 62.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 23.2N 64.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 24.6N 66.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 25.7N 68.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 01/0000Z 26.6N 70.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 26.5N 71.2W 80 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 26.0N 71.6W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN

[Thunder44]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 290852
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2008

...HANNA IS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST OR ABOUT 245
MILES...400 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY BUT HANNA COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLAND

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...21.7 N...62.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


000
WTNT43 KNHC 290853
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF HANNA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE
AWAY...IT IS STILL PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONCE
AGAIN THE CENTER HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS
NOW CONFINED TO A CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
45 KNOTS...BUT WITH THE CURRENT SHEARED PATTERN...THIS ESTIMATE
COULD BE GENEROUS. THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO
BE THE KEY PLAYER FOR BOTH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF HANNA FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. IF THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY AS INDICATED
BY GLOBAL MODELS...THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES A GOOD SOLUTION FROM
GLOBAL MODELS AND CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION FROM 24 TO 72
HOURS. THE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL BUT DOES NOT
SHOWS AS MUCH STRENGTHENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL AND HWRF.

HANNA HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW AND THE
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. A
GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND 3
DAYS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE CARVING A LARGE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND DEVELOPING A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE HANNA ON A SLOW
SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK BEYOND THREE DAYS...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION BUT DOES NOT GO AS
FAR SOUTH AS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE MODELS. IN FACT...THE GFS HAS
JOINED THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN BRINGING THE CYCLONE
SOUTHWESTWARD. I PREFER TO WAIT FOR MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE FORECAST
SUCH A RARE BUT NOT UNIQUE TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 21.7N 62.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 22.6N 64.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 24.0N 66.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 25.3N 68.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 31/0600Z 26.0N 70.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 26.0N 71.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 25.5N 72.2W 80 KT
120HR VT 03/0600Z 25.0N 73.0W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2008

...HANNA PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST OR ABOUT 215
MILES...345 KM...NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA IS
FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...AND NORTH OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND HANNA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...21.3 N...62.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2008

INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 62.7W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 25NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 62.7W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 62.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.2N 64.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.6N 66.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.6N 68.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.1N 70.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.7N 71.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 24.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 23.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 62.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

A 1031 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER
OF HANNA EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE CENTER
BRIEFLY BECAME EXPOSED...HOWEVER...NEW CONVECTION FORMED SINCE THAT
TIME AND THE CENTER IS POSITIONED JUST BENEATH THE COLDER CLOUD
TOPS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT 45 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED. IN THE
NEAR TERM...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LOW TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OF HANNA WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN...WHICH
SHOULD RELAX THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS CURRENTLY IMPINGING
UPON THE CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SOLUTION
AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...
BRINING HANNA TO HURRICANE STATUS. THEREAFTER THERE IS A LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS
PREDICT STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER
HANNA...WHICH ONE WOULD THINK SHOULD HALT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
OR EVEN WEAKEN THE STORM. HOWEVER...NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOW STRENGTHENING OR LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE DURING THAT
TIME. ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR WILL PRODUCE A NEGATIVE AFFECT ON
HANNA...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE OF PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS A LITTLE BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.

HANNA MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
MOTION. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWARD TURN..SOUTH OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...THE SHARPNESS OF THE TURN
AND SPEED OF MOTION VARIES GREATLY. THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...MAINLY DUE TO
THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL MOTION. THIS IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS NOTICEABLY SLOWER THAN
THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS. THE HWRF...WHICH SHOWS A CYCLONIC LOOP
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT DAY 5...IS
CONSIDER AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA. IMPACTS IN THESE AREAS COULD OCCUR
MUCH SOONER THAN INDICATED BY THE EXACT TRACK...ESPECIALLY IF THE
MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DOES NOT MATERIALIZED LATER TODAY OR ON
SATURDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 21.3N 62.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 22.2N 64.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 23.6N 66.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 24.6N 68.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 31/1200Z 25.1N 70.1W 70 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 24.7N 71.6W 65 KT
96HR VT 02/1200Z 24.0N 72.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 03/1200Z 23.0N 73.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
2100 UTC FRI AUG 29 2008

INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 63.8W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 0SW 25NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 75SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 63.8W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 63.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.8N 65.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 20SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.0N 67.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.8N 69.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.0N 71.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 23.7N 73.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 23.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 63.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM AST FRI AUG 29 2008

...HANNA PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST OR ABOUT 280
MILES...450 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
470 MILES...755 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.
A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA IS
FORECAST TO PASS WELL OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THEN BE NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND HANNA COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...21.8 N...63.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

THE CENTER OF HANNA REMAINS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RATHER
SHAPELESS AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A
1412 UTC ASCAT PASS FOUND WINDS OF 40 KT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. GIVEN THE LOW BIAS TYPICAL OF ASCAT WINDS IN THIS
RANGE...IT SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT.
THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB WHICH REMAIN T3.0 OR 45 KT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF HANNA HAS NOT BUDGED
TODAY AND IT CONTINUES TO IMPART SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN EMPHATIC
SUGGESTING THAT THE UPPER-LOW WILL MOVE WEST OR WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN...ALLOWING HANNA TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR
SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT SHOWS A LOWER
PEAK INTENSITY THAN WAS FORECAST IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN
ABOUT 3 DAYS...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRONG NORTHWEST TO
NORTH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THESE WINDS ARE
PARTIALLY THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV. DESPITE THE HOSTILE
UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECAST...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT PREDICT
WEAKENING. OUR INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE AND STILL ASSUMES THAT THE NORTHERLY SHEAR WILL HAVE A
NEGATIVE IMPACT ON HANNA'S INTENSITY.

HANNA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295/9. IN
GENERAL...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF HANNA. THE TROPICAL STORM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 2
DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE HWRF
CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER SHOWING A CYCLONIC LOOP NORTH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER
AND FARTHER WEST THEREAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 21.8N 63.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 22.8N 65.4W 50 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 24.0N 67.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 24.8N 69.8W 60 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 25.0N 71.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 24.5N 72.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 23.7N 73.7W 60 KT
120HR VT 03/1800Z 23.0N 75.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
0300 UTC SAT AUG 30 2008

INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 65.3W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 75SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 65.3W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 64.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.9N 67.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 23.9N 69.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.5N 70.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.6N 72.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 24.4N 73.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 23.6N 75.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 23.0N 76.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 65.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 29 2008

...HANNA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...BUT STILL A TROPICAL STORM...

INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES...420 KM...NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 375 MILES
...600 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA IS
FORECAST TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND HANNA COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...22.1 N...65.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT HANNA REMAINS WITHIN A
VERY HARSH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION...EXPOSED WELL WEST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTIVE
BAND...PASSED ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH OF BUOY 41043 WHICH RECORDED A
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. CONSEQUENTLY...HANNA'S CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 1002 MB BASED ON THIS DATA. A
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS JUST CAME IN A FEW MINUTES AGO AND INDICATED THAT
THE CIRCULATION MAY BE JUST A BIT SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY POSITION AS
WELL AS ALSO REVEALING A FEW BELIEVABLE 40-45 KT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
45 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CYCLONE WILL
EITHER INCREASE IN DISTANCE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WITH TIME OR
WEAKEN AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THE SHIPS MODEL FOLLOWS SUIT BY
SUGGESTING THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...WHICH
IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST WITH GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WHICH COULD ALSO BE INFLUENCED BY HURRICANE GUSTAV'S
OUTFLOW PATTERN. SINCE THERE IS A CONSENSUS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN INHIBITING SYNOPTIC UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...A WEAKENING IS
INDICATED THROUGH DAY 5.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/12...WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS INTACT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
BLEND THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND THE DAY 3 PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NUDGED TOWARD THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND UKMET MODELS WHICH APPEAR TO BE DEPICTING THE SHEARED VERTICAL
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM MORE ACCURATELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 22.1N 65.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 22.9N 67.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 23.9N 69.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 24.5N 70.8W 60 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 24.6N 72.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 24.4N 73.4W 65 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 23.6N 75.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 04/0000Z 23.0N 76.3W 55 KT

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
0900 UTC SAT AUG 30 2008

INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 66.3W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 75SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 66.3W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 65.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.6N 68.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 23.3N 70.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 23.5N 71.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 23.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 22.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 66.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2008

...HANNA HEADING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT
240 MILES...390 KM...NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 310
MILES ...500 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY A
TURN BACK TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY BUT HANNA COULD
BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...21.9 N...66.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HANNA.
THE CENTER CONTINUES TO RUN AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION AND NEW
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS OVER IT. THIS MEANS THAT THE SHEAR
HAS NOT RELAXED YET. A NOAA BUOY...41043...HAS BEEN EXTREMELY USEFUL
IN TRACKING THE CYCLONE. IT HAS DEPICTED THE WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA AND HAS RECENTLY
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF NEAR 1002 MB. AS LONG AS THE
MODERATE SHEAR PREVAILS...CAUSED BY THE RESILIENT UPPER-LOW...HANNA
MOST LIKELY WILL NOT STRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO
CHANGE
IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST
ON WEAKENING THE UPPER-LOW...CREATING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR HANNA TO STRENGTHEN IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN 12 AND 48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BY SHOWING SOME SLIGHT
WEAKENING. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY HANNA...SOME OF
THEM QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY...DESPITE THE SHEAR. I DO NOT HAVE AN
EXPLANATION FOR IT.

THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGES BUT SATELLITE
FIXES AND DATA FROM THE NOAA BUOY SUGGEST THAT HANNA HAS BEEN
MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. FOR ABOUT 12 TO 24
HOURS...A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AROUND THE UPPER-LOW IS
ANTICIPATED. THEREAFTER...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF HANNA WILL THEN PROVIDE THE
DOMINANT STEERING FLOW. THIS SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A
WESTWARD AND THEN AN EVEN SLOWER WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. I TRIED
VERY HARD NOT TO FORECAST THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TURN SINCE THIS IS NOT
A VERY COMMON TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK BUT RELIABLE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE HAS FORCED ME TO DO SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
PRACTICALLY ON TOP OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. I ALWAYS WONDERED HOW
TODAY'S SOPHISTICATED DYNAMICAL MODELS WOULD HAVE FORECAST
HURRICANE BETSY BACK IN 1965. THIS HURRICANE MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE BAHAMAS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 21.9N 66.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 22.6N 68.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 23.3N 70.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 23.5N 71.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 23.5N 72.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 23.5N 74.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 03/0600Z 23.0N 75.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 04/0600Z 22.5N 77.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT23 KNHC 301444
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1500 UTC SAT AUG 30 2008

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 66.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 66.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 66.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.4N 67.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 22.9N 69.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.2N 71.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.2N 72.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 23.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 23.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 23.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 66.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

848
WTNT33 KNHC 301446
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST OR ABOUT 305
MILES...490 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF HANNA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...
220 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...21.9 N...66.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

WTNT43 KNHC 301447
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

HANNA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES BELOW -80 DEGREES C. HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THIS
CONVECTION. THE EXACT CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS A
COUPLE OF SMALL VORTICES HAVE BEEN SEEN ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER
CIRCULATION THIS MORNING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN
T3.0 OR 45 KT AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGEST MAXIMUM WINDS
WERE NEAR THAT VALUE. THERE WERE SOME STRONGER WINDS SEEN IN THE
QUIKSCAT DATA...BUT THESE WINDS WERE WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER
AND APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN RAIN-INFLATED.

THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/7. HANNA HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE MORE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 12-24 HOURS...WHICH
HAS REQUIRED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST IN
THE SHORT-TERM. THE TRACK GUIDANCE PREDICTS A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...
THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS...AS A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFDL AND
HWRF RESPOND BY SHOWING A VERY SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IN ABOUT 3
DAYS...WHILE THE UKMET TURNS HANNA SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS EASTERN
CUBA. VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
SEVERAL OF THE FORECAST MODELS NOW INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND DAY 5. THE NEW FORECAST WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT SMOOTHS THROUGH THESE POSSIBLE UNDULATIONS
AND SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION BETWEEN 72-120 HOURS. THE NEW
TRACK IS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE MUCH DISCUSSED UPPER-LOW JUST WEST OF THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE
WEAKENED A LITTLE THIS MORNING. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
WESTERLY SHEAR MAY RELAX JUST A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GIVEN THE RESILIENCE OF HANNA...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
LITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW KEEPS HANNA JUST
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED ONCE AGAIN...THAT THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS BELOW ALL OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE.

BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 21.9N 66.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 22.4N 67.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 22.9N 69.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 23.2N 71.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 23.2N 72.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 23.0N 73.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 03/1200Z 23.0N 75.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 04/1200Z 23.0N 76.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

082
WTNT33 KNHC 301741
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
200 PM AST SAT AUG 30 2008

...HANNA HEADS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE
INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST OR ABOUT
265 MILES...430 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...
220 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...22.2 N...67.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

649
WTNT33 KNHC 302354
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
800 PM AST SAT AUG 30 2008

...TROPICAL STORM HANNA MOVING ERRATICALLY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE
INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE CENTER OF
OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS RELOCATED TO NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES...425 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF
GRAND TURK ISLAND.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR.
A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME THIS
EVENING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NEAR OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATE
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...
230 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...22.8 N...67.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTNT23 KNHC 310231
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
0300 UTC SUN AUG 31 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE
INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 67.8W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......125NE 100SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 67.8W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 67.4W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 23.3N 69.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.6N 70.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.6N 71.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.6N 72.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 23.8N 73.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 24.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 26.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 67.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

297
WTNT43 KNHC 310244
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT A
CONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE
OF THE HANNA HAS TRANSFORMED INTO A SYSTEM SIMILAR TO A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE...WITH A SLIGHT TILT TO THE WEST WITH HEIGHT. THE CYCLONE
HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE PARTLY
EXPOSED CENTER...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME MODERATE SUBSIDENCE SPREADING OVER THE
AREA PRODUCED BY CONVERGING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW
NOW ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA AND GUSTAV'S OUTFLOW PATTERN...WITH THIS
DRYER MORE STABLE AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM'S CORE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON DVORAK AND
HEBERT/POTEAT INTENSITY TECHNIQUES...AS WELL AS A QUIKSCAT PASS
THAT SUPPORTED THIS INTENSITY.

THE INTENSITY MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY
SHEAR AROUND THE 24 HOUR PERIOD...THEN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AFTERWARD. THE SHIPS AND THE LGEM
AGREE WITH GRADUAL STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR
APPEARS...THEN THE MODELS AGREE WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE 72
HOUR PERIOD. BEYOND DAY 3...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A HINT
OF A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER WIND ENVIRONMENT...WHICH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ALSO DEPICT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS PHILOSOPHY AND INDICATES SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AT THE 120
HOUR PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/7. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT AN ANCHORED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A DEEP MID-LATITUDE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WEAKEN A
PORTION OF THE RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE BAHAMAS
WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING HIGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE HANNA TO
TEMPORARILY SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD WHILE
MAINTAINING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEAST OF
HANNA IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE LOW LIFTING OUT
AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST COAST. THE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS
RATHER LARGE...HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY ARE SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OVER OR EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BEYOND 72 HOURS...WHILE THE
UKMET IS STILL PREDICTING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO REMAIN INTACT
TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT INDICATES A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEYOND DAY 3.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0300Z 22.9N 67.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 23.3N 69.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 23.6N 70.4W 50 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 23.6N 71.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 23.6N 72.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 23.8N 73.1W 55 KT
96HR VT 04/0000Z 24.5N 74.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 05/0000Z 26.5N 76.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[Thunder44]

2AM ADVISORY

...Hanna strengthens slightly east of the Bahamas...

a tropical storm watch remains in effect for the southeastern
Bahamas...including the Acklins...Crooked Island...the
Inaguas...Mayaguana...and the Ragged Islands...as well as for
the Turks and Caicos Islands.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 200 am AST...0600z...the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was
located near latitude 23.0 north...longitude 68.1 west or about 220
miles...355 km...east-northeast of Grand Turk island.

Hanna is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr.
A west to west-northwestward motion is expected with a gradual
decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track...the center of Hanna is expected to move near or
just northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands late today or
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 55 mph...95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles...325 km
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb...29.50 inches.

Long-period swells from Hanna are expected to increase the risk
of dangerous rip currents along portions of the southeastern
United States coast during the next couple of days.

Repeating the 200 am AST position...23.0 N...68.1 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...55
mph. Minimum central pressure...999 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 500 am AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Thunder44]

5AM Advisory

0900 UTC sun Aug 31 2008

at 500 am EDT...0900z...the government of the Bahamas has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Turks and Caicos Islands.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the southeastern
Bahamas...including the Acklins...Crooked Island...the
Inaguas...Mayaguana...and the Ragged Islands.

Tropical storm center located near 23.2n 69.0w at 31/0900z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 10 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 999 mb
Max sustained winds 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
50 kt....... 75ne 0se 0sw 75nw.
34 kt.......180ne 160se 0sw 130nw.
12 ft seas..360ne 180se 210sw 210nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 23.2n 69.0w at 31/0900z
at 31/0600z center was located near 23.1n 68.5w

forecast valid 31/1800z 23.6n 70.2w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 65ne 0se 0sw 65nw.
34 kt...170ne 150se 0sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 01/0600z 23.7n 71.4w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 55ne 0se 0sw 55nw.
34 kt...160ne 140se 0sw 110nw.

Forecast valid 01/1800z 23.7n 72.5w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 45ne 0se 0sw 45nw.
34 kt...150ne 130se 0sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 02/0600z 23.3n 73.1w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 45ne 0se 0sw 45nw.
34 kt...150ne 130se 0sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 03/0600z 23.6n 73.9w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 45ne 45se 0sw 35nw.
34 kt...150ne 130se 50sw 100nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 225 nm
on day 4 and 300 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 04/0600z 25.1n 75.4w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.

Outlook valid 05/0600z 28.0n 78.0w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 23.2n 69.0w

next advisory at 31/1500z

$$
forecaster Stewart

[Thunder44]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 310855
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

HANNA HAS BEEN GOING THROUGH SOME STRUCTURAL CHANGES THAT HAVE
RESEMBLED A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AT TIMES AS AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD LOW
AND DRY AIR HAVE BECOME ENTANGLED WITH THE INNER-CORE CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS INDICATED
THAT THE UPPER-LOW HAS BEGUN TO DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD HISPANIOLA
...WHICH MAY ALLOW HANNA TO TRANSITION BACK INTO A FULL WARM CORE
TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 50 KT
AND THE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE BASED ON A 30/2231Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THAT WAS NOT
AVAILABLE FOR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE ST3.0/45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE AT 290/10. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
NOW INDICATES SOME SOUTHWARD COMPONENT TO HANNA'S TRACK BY 48 HOURS
AS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IMPINGES ON THE CYCLONE BEHIND A DIGGING
TROUGH OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE
GUSTAV LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST OF HANNA. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES
AT LEAST 30 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR ACROSS HANNA AT 48 HOURS...WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO DISPLACE ANY DEEP CONVECTION INTO THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND ALSO HELP TO FORCE THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD. SHOULD
HANNA BE STRIPPED OF ALL CONVECTION AROUND THAT TIME PERIOD...THE
SHALLOW BAM MODEL ALSO INDICATES A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION
...INCLUDING A CYCLONIC LOOP. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS... NEARLY ALL OF
THE MODELS FORECAST THE STRONG UPPER-TROUGH TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND BE REPLACED BY A LARGE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
HANNA. THE LATTER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INDUCE A
NORTHWESTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE KEY TO THE
FORECAST TRACK AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES WILL BE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
AND WEST HANNA MOVES BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. MOST
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS HANNA OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH
BRING HANNA NEAR THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA BY DAY 4 AND INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY DAY 5. AT THIS TIME...THE SPECIFICS OF THOSE
TWO TRACKS ARE CONSIDERED TO BE OUTLIERS...BUT THEY HAVE NOT BEEN
ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TRICKY. WITH MORE THAN 30 KT OF
SHEAR FORECAST TO AFFECT HANNA BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE COULD
EASILY BE SHEARED APART. HOWEVER...WHILE THE SHEAR WILL BE
STRONG...ITS NEGATIVE EFFECTS MAY BE OFFSET BY THE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENT PATTERN THAT IS ALSO FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS
HANNA AT THAT TIME. BY 72-96 HOURS...ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE ON
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW REPLACING THE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR
PATTERN...INCLUDING OUTFLOW JETS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER 29-30C
SSTS BENEATH THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
HELD BELOW ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF WHAT THE EXACT STRUCTURE OF HANNA WILL BE AFTER THE
UPCOMING STRONG SHEAR PATTERN ABATES IN AROUND 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0900Z 23.2N 69.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 23.6N 70.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 23.7N 71.4W 50 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 23.7N 72.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 23.3N 73.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 23.6N 73.9W 55 KT
96HR VT 04/0600Z 25.1N 75.4W 60 KT
120HR VT 05/0600Z 28.0N 78.0W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

WTNT23 KNHC 311446
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1500 UTC SUN AUG 31 2008

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT
ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 70.0W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 160SE 0SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 210SE 210SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 70.0W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 69.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.4N 71.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 0SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.5N 72.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.3N 72.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 23.0N 73.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 23.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 26.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 29.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 70.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

WTNT43 KNHC 311446
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

HANNA'S OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE REMAINS RATHER RAGGED AND DEEP
CONVECTION IS LIMITED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND NEARBY BUOY 41046. HANNA WILL ENCOUNTER A RATHER
COMPLICATED ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
MAKING THE INTENSITY FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. WHILE MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER
HANNA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...THEY HAVE NOT NECESSARILY HAD THE
BEST TRACK RECORD FORECASTING THIS FEATURE. EVEN IF THE UPPER-LOW
DOES WEAKEN AS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...GUSTAV'S OUTFLOW COULD
PRODUCE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA. INDEED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A DEFORMATION AXIS FORMING NORTH OF HANNA
AS A RESULT OF GUSTAV'S OUTFLOW INTERACTING WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. BOTTOM LINE...THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS
RATHER HOSTILE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMICAL MODELS DO
INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST AS A SECOND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OR CYCLONIC SHEAR
AXIS FORMS TO THE WEST OF HANNA. HOWEVER...ACCURATELY PREDICTING
THE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH HANNA WILL BE LOCATED AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IS
DIFFICULT...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

HANNA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RESULTING IN A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR 280/09.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. SUCH AN EVOLUTION IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE RESULTING IN A
REDUCTION IN HANNA'S FORWARD SPEED AND POSSIBLY SOME ERRATIC
MOTION. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK WESTWARD IN ITS
WAKE. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS RESPOND BY TURNING HANNA NORTHWEST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. HOWEVER...THE UKMET MODEL
ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING SUFFICIENTLY FAR WEST...AND
TO THE NORTH OF HANNA...TO RESULT IN MORE WESTWARD TRACK. SINCE
THIS IS A NORMALLY GOOD PERFORMING MODEL...IT CANNOT COMPLETELY BE
IGNORED AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

GIVEN THE HIGH SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HANNA'S EVENTUAL TRACK AND
INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 23.3N 70.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 23.4N 71.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 23.5N 72.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 23.3N 72.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 23.0N 73.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 23.5N 74.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 26.0N 76.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 05/1200Z 29.5N 79.0W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 312037
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT
ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE
INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...225 KM...NORTH OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. HANNA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...HANNA WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...23.5 N...71.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

WTNT43 KNHC 312038
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING HANNA DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS FOUND A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 48 KT WHICH
REDUCES TO APPROXIMATELY 40 KT AT THE SURFACE. WHILE THERE WERE A
FEW HIGHER VALUES FROM THE SFMR...THESE WERE LIKELY RAIN INFLATED.
THE OVERALL INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.
HANNA IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS DO
FORECAST THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV'S
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW SHOULD KEEP NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA THROUGH
DAY 3. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST A SOMEWHAT
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT AS A SECOND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OR CYCLONIC SHEAR
AXIS FORMS TO THE WEST OF HANNA. THIS WOULD PUT HANNA IN A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...ACCURATELY
PREDICTING HANNA'S PROXIMITY TO LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES AT
DAYS 4 AND 5 IS DIFFICULT...TO SAY THE LEAST. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING...BUT
IS BELOW THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

HANNA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR 280/09. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SUCH AN EVOLUTION IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE
THE STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN
HANNA'S FORWARD SPEED. IN FACT...SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW HANNA
MEANDERING OVER OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BY DAY
3...THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD IN ITS WAKE.
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AT THE
EXTENDED RANGE. THE GFS...GFDL...AND THE HWRF MODELS LIE ALONG THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND SHOW HANNA LIFTING QUICKLY
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
CONVERSELY...THE UKMET MODEL SHOWS THE RIDGE NOSING WESTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF HANNA...PRODUCING A TRACK ALONG THE LEFT...OR
SOUTHWEST...SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. SINCE THERE IS NO CLEAR
REASON TO FAVOR ONE SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME...I'VE
ELECTED TO LEAVE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED BEYOND
72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 23.5N 71.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 23.5N 72.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 23.3N 73.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 23.3N 73.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 23.5N 74.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 24.5N 75.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 31.5N 81.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME