ATL HANNA: Advisories

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 312348
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
800 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2008

...HANNA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD....

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST OR ABOUT
140 MILES...225 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. HANNA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED...THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...HANNA WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...23.5 N...71.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[caneseddy]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 010255
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2008

...HANNA SLIGHTLY STRONGER...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A MOTION
BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF HANNA WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A NOAA BUOY INDICATES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...23.7 N...72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[caneseddy]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 010258
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED HANNA THIS AFTERNOON...
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM BETWEEN 2200
AND 0000 UTC HAVE BEEN VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AGAIN TO T3.0 OR 45 KT... AND
NOAA BUOY 41046 RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK ONE-MINUTE WIND SPEED OF
39 KT VERY NEAR THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THESE DATA SUPPORT
INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 45 KT.

BOTH THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS DIAGNOSE ABOUT 20 KT OF
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA AT THIS TIME. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND
THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHEAR VALUES
DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. GIVEN THIS SHEAR...IT IS TEMPTING TO NOT
FORECAST ANY STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME...BUT MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INTENSIFICATION. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...HOWEVER IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE HANNA IS
LOCATED. THE LGEM MODEL IS AT THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM AND
FORECASTS VERY LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH
36 HOURS...BUT IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THEREAFTER AND USES A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AT 3 DAYS AND BEYOND.

HANNA HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 280/7 KT. THE BUILDING DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO BLOCK HANNA'S
FORWARD MOTION VERY SOON...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY SLOW
AND ERRATIC MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48
HOURS...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE U.S. WHILE ANOTHER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST OF HANNA. THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE STORM NORTHWESTWARD BY THAT
TIME. THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT
THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE LARGE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE
UKMET REMAINS THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER WITH A TRACK NEAR CUBA AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WHILE THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL ARE ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A TRACK TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HAS SHIFTED EVER SO
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 23.7N 72.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 23.5N 72.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 23.4N 73.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 23.4N 73.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 23.7N 74.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 25.4N 75.8W 55 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 29.0N 79.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 06/0000Z 33.5N 82.0W 45 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

785
WTNT43 KNHC 010848
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...A LARGE MASS OF INTENSE CONVECTION WITH
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -87C HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF HANNA. NOAA BUOY 41046 JUST EAST OF THE
ALLEGED CENTER HAS REPORTED 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 KT...
WHICH EASILY SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT...AND HANNA
COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE STRONGER BASED ON AN EARLIER PRESSURE OF
997.1 MB FROM THE SAME BUOY. A RECON AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE
HANNA LATER TODAY AND PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 260/02...DUE MAINLY TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER. A 01/0224Z ASCAT
OVERPASS SUGGESTED THE CENTER OF HANNA WAS FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND
EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION. IF THAT IS THE CASE...HANNA WOULD
EASILY BE A 55-KT OR STRONGER TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...EARLIER
PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE MOST RECENT NIGHTTIME VISIBLE
IMAGERY...AND THE CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR PATTERN ALL SUGGEST
THAT THE CENTER SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION RATHER THAN EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. IN CONTRAST TO THE
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOCATION OF HANNA...ALL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NEARLY IDENTICAL FORECAST SCENARIOS OF THE MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS. THE BERMUDA HIGH IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
BY DAYS 3-5...WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF THE
U.S. EAST COAST AND SPLITS...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION DIGGING
SOUTH OF HANNA AND THE NORTHERN PORTION LIFTING OUT AND ALLOWING
RIDGING TO FILL IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF HANNA. THIS
COMBINED FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE HANNA TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY 72-96 HOURS/DAYS 3-4. THE PRIMARY
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS HOW THEY HANDLE THE SIZE OF HANNA
BETWEEN NOW AND 72 HOURS. THE ECMWF AND UKMET KEEP HANNA ABOUT 100
NMI IN DIAMETER SMALLER AT 500 MB THAN THE OTHER MODELS DO...WHICH
RESULTS IN MORE RIDGING TO EXIST ON THE EAST SIDE OF HANNA...AND
WHICH FORCES THE CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANS A LITTLE TOWARD
THE ECMWF-UKMET SCENARIOS BASED ON HANNA'S CURRENT SIZE.

LITTLE...IF ANY...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
DUE TO HOSTILE NORTHERLY SHEAR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE ALMOST IDENTICAL 200 MB FLOW PATTERNS
INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
REGIMES SURROUNDING HANNA. THIS TYPE OF DUAL JET PATTERN WOULD
FAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...AND HANNA COULD EASILY BE A
HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT
REMAINS BELOW ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

ALL INTERESTS IN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECASTS FOR
HANNA SINCE ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OF HANNA MUCH CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 23.6N 72.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 23.4N 73.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 23.4N 73.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 23.7N 74.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 24.2N 74.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 26.2N 76.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 30.0N 80.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z 35.0N 82.5W 30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 011147
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
800 AM AST MON SEP 01 2008

...HANNA NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF THE CAICOS ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES...145 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

HANNA HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR...AND A
CONTINUED SLOW FORWARD MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALTHOUGH HANNA COULD BECOME
STATIONARY AT TIMES. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA
WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

A NOAA BUOY EAST OF THE CENTER INDICATES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE AREA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 12
INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...23.6 N...72.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

676
WTNT33 KNHC 011452
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM AST MON SEP 01 2008

...HANNA STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...
THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES... 65 KM...NORTH OF MAYAGUANA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HANNA WILL MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY APPROACHING HANNA AND WILL BE SAMPLING THE CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...23.0 N...72.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT43 KNHC 011452
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

HANNA'S OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN IMPROVING THIS
MORNING WITH AN IMPRESSIVE CDO FEATURE NOW COVERING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED
AND SUGGEST MAX WINDS NEAR 55 KT. I'M GOING TO CONSERVATIVELY SET
THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT SINCE AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS ON ITS WAY. HAVING SAID THAT...A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD BE LOCATED A LITTLE
FARTHER INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS SUGGEST THAT HANNA COULD BE
STRONGER THAN ESTIMATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH HAD
PREVIOUSLY INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT HAS DISSIPATED...AND HANNA NOW
FINDS ITSELF IN A VERY SMALL AREA OF LOW SHEAR. HOWEVER...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
GUSTAV'S UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW JUST NORTH OF HANNA...AND GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR PERSISTING DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHOWS HANNA BECOMING A
HURRICANE A LITTLE SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BY 72
HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN...AND HANNA
COULD FIND ITSELF IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING. STILL...PREDICTING THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY...AT DAYS 3-5 IS VERY DIFFICULT.

WHILE THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...HANNA APPEARS TO BE MOVING
MORE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250/4. A VERY SLOW WEST-
SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CAUSING HANNA TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH 36 HOURS
BASED ON THE LATEST MOTION. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY AT THE EXTENDED RANGES AND NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 23.0N 72.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.8N 73.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 22.7N 73.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 22.9N 74.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 23.7N 74.9W 65 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 26.5N 77.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 30.5N 80.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 36.5N 82.0W 35 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 011731
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HANNA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
130 PM AST MON SEP 01 2008

...HANNA BECOMES THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

AT 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 130 PM AST...1730Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HANNA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST...OR VERY NEAR
MAYAGUANA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED
TODAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HANNA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HANNA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. THE TURKS ISLAND JUST REPORTED A
WIND GUST OF 59 MPH...95 KP/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 130 PM AST POSITION...22.4 N...72.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT43 KNHC 011732
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HANNA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
130 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY OF HANNA. DATA
FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HANNA IS
NOW A HURRICANE WITH 65 KT WINDS. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD AT ALL FORECAST TIMES. THE TRACK HAS ALSO BEEN SLIGHTLY
ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST FIX. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES
THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1730Z 22.4N 72.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.4N 73.3W 70 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 22.5N 73.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 22.8N 74.2W 70 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 23.7N 74.9W 75 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 26.5N 77.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 30.5N 80.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 36.5N 82.0W 30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

[WindRunner]

WTNT43 KNHC 012050
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY FOUND A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 983 MB AND A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 89 KT. THESE
NUMBERS INDICATE HANNA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE FACE OF
WHAT APPEARS TO BE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS
DIFFICULT SINCE GLOBAL MODES SHOW THE SHEAR REMAINING STRONG OR
POSSIBLY INCREASING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN HANNA'S
TENACITY THUS FAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT HANNA WILL
BE ABLE TO FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR. AT DAY 5...HANNA IS FORECAST TO BE
INLAND SO WEAKENING IS SHOWN.

THE LAST FEW FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HANNA HAS BEEN
MEANDERING. HOWEVER...A 12-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION IS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HANNA NOW
DISSIPATED...THE CYCLONE'S MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC. AFTER THAT...GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE HANNA TO TURN
NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS WITH POTENTIAL AREAS OF
IMPACT RANGING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. UNTIL
HANNA TAKES A MORE DEFINITIVE MOTION...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BE
MORE SPECIFIC ABOUT THE POTENTIAL THREAT AREA. ALL INTERESTS ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 22.2N 72.6W 70 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 21.9N 72.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 21.8N 73.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 22.1N 73.9W 75 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 23.1N 74.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 27.0N 78.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 31.5N 81.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 39.0N 80.5W 25 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

[HURAKAN]

141
WTNT33 KNHC 012356
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
800 PM AST MON SEP 01 2008

...HANNA NEARLY STATIONARY...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HANNA WAS ESTIMATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST...OR JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE CAICOS ISLANDS.

HANNA HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE OVERALL
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HANNA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE
THROUGH THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
OF EASTERN CUBA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...WHERE THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING MUDSLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...22.1 N...72.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

HURRICANE HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 72.5W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 150SE 150SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 72.5W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 72.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 21.8N 72.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 22.0N 73.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.8N 74.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 24.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 28.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 34.0N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 41.5N 77.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 72.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM AST MON SEP 01 2008

...HANNA MEANDERING...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HANNA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...
150 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND AND ABOUT 380 MILES...
615 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

HANNA HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE OVERALL
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HANNA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES...ARE
EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
MUDSLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...21.8 N...72.5 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...978 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

HURRICANE HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

WHILE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WHAT'S LEFT SHOWS GOOD BANDING IN AGREEMENT
WITH RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE PINE CAY SURFACE STATION IN THE
CAICOS ISLAND SUGGESTS THAT THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO ABOUT 978
MB. THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM
GUSTAV...IS CLEARLY NOT MAKING IT INTO THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. EVEN SO...ONLY MODEST CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS UNTIL THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS
TO REVERSE WHEN MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS
ON THIS EVOLUTION...WHICH SHOULD CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN
FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LIES A LITTLE
ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
GFDL/HWRF/SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE...WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS A LITTLE
HIGHER AND THE STATISTICAL MODELS A LITTLE LOWER. ONE SHOULD NOT
INTERPOLATE A PRESUMED LANDFALL INTENSITY FROM THE 72 AND 96 HOUR
FORECAST POINTS...AS SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR
BETWEEN 72 HOURS AND LANDFALL.

THERE HAS BEEN NO AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE THIS EVENING AND PRECISE
LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT. IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER
HAS BEEN MEANDERING...FIRST APPROACHING THE STATION AT PINE CAY BUT
IN RECENT HOURS MOVING AWAY AS THE WINDS AT THAT STATION HAVE
INCREASED TO 58 MPH IN THE LAST HOUR. WITH NO DEFINITIVE TREND YET
ESTABLISHED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE STATIONARY.
HANNA IS CURRENTLY BLOCKED BY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR HANNA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS REMARKABLY WELL
CLUSTERED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE
GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF. THE UKMET STILL IS THE LEFT-MOST
OUTLIER...SHOWING MORE OF A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION INITIALLY AND A
TRACK CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE 18Z UKMET SHOWS LESS OF THIS INITIAL SOUTHWESTWARD JUMP
THAN THE FULL RUN FROM 12Z.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 21.8N 72.5W 70 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 21.8N 72.8W 75 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 22.0N 73.3W 75 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 22.8N 74.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 24.0N 75.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 28.0N 78.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 34.0N 80.5W 65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/0000Z 41.5N 77.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
200 AM AST TUE SEP 02 2008

...HANNA MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS......

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HANNA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
85 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 400 MILES...
645 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

HANNA HAS MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...POSSIBLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOOPING MOTION. BY WEDNESDAY...A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED BEGIN.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HANNA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
OF EASTERN CUBA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...WHERE THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING MUDSLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...21.3 N...72.6 W. MOVEMENT...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 021156
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
800 AM AST TUE SEP 02 2008

...HANNA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND HAITI...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST OR VERY NEAR
GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 385 MILES...615 KM...SOUTHEAST OF
NASSAU.

HANNA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. SLOW AND
ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...HANNA WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND
INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HANNA COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH
LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
OF EASTERN CUBA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...WHERE THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING MUDSLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...21.2 N...73.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN

[RL3AO]

002
WTNT23 KNHC 021453
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2008

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD
TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 73.5W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 150SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 73.5W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 73.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.4N 73.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.3N 74.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.6N 75.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 25.1N 76.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 29.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 36.5N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 45.5N 70.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 73.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME




001
WTNT33 KNHC 021453
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 02 2008

...HANNA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
HISPANIOLA...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD
TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST OR ABOUT 20
MILES... 35 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 370
MILES...600 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HANNA WILL MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE HANNA
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING MUDSLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...21.0 N...73.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB



101
WTNT43 KNHC 021455
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

HANNA HAS FINALLY SUCCUMBED TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND A SHRINKING CDO FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 60 KT...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THIS
MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE HANNA THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A BETTER INTENSITY
ESTIMATE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP EDGE OR DEFORMATION
AXIS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CIRRUS CANOPY SUGGESTING THAT THE
SHEAR WILL PERSIST IN THE SHORT-TERM...AND SOME ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ABOUT 24
HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SHEAR WEAKENING AND THIS COULD ALLOW
HANNA TO RESTRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENT LACK OF
ORGANIZATION...IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW MUCH STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BUT SHOWS HANNA BECOMING A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN ABOUT
36 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. IN FACT...IF ONE CONSULTS THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY
PRODUCT INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE...IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THERE IS
NEARLY AN EQUAL PROBABILITY OF HANNA BEING A TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE AT DAY 3.

HANNA CONTINUES TO MEANDER BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF AN INITIAL
MOTION IS 250/05. SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT
HANNA SHOULD START MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. HANNA SHOULD ACCELERATE
NORTHWESTWARD AT DAYS 2 TO 3 AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. DYNAMICAL
TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... GEORGIA...OR SOUTH CAROLINA
IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THE EXPECTED ANGLE OF
APPROACH AND TRACK UNCERTAINTY MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO NARROW DOWN
THE POTENTIAL IMPACT AREA. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
AND ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 21.0N 73.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 21.4N 73.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 22.3N 74.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 23.6N 75.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 25.1N 76.8W 70 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 29.5N 80.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 36.5N 80.0W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/1200Z 45.5N 70.0W 25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
200 PM AST TUE SEP 02 2008

...HANNA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR JUST
SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
ABOUT 420 MILES...680 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

HANNA HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. HOWEVER...A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...HANNA WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
TONIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING HANNA. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING MUDSLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...20.6 N...72.9 W.
MOVEMENT...DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2008

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST FROM
PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO BAHIA DE MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS
BEEN EXTENDED AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 72.7W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 150 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 72.7W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 72.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.9N 73.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.2N 74.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 25.4N 77.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 38.0N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 47.0N 66.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 72.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM AST TUE SEP 02 2008

...HANNA WEAKENS AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST FROM
PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO BAHIA DE MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS
BEEN EXTENDED AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES... 95 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND ABOUT 435 MILES...705 KM...SOUTHEAST OF
NASSAU.

HANNA HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7
KM/HR. HOWEVER...A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HANNA WILL MOVE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TOMORROW...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
TONIGHT...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND HANNA COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THAT
PERIOD.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND EASTERN CUBA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA WHERE THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...20.4 N...72.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING HANNA
CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
AT 850 MB WAS 66 KT WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 55 KT AT THE
SURFACE. HANNA WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR FOR ANOTHER
12-24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. BY
TOMORROW...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO CUT OFF
JUST WEST OF HANNA AND THEN DROP SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. IF THIS EVOLUTION MATERIALIZES...AND ASSUMING HANNA IS ABLE
TO FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR HANNA TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR SO...IN
LINE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY MODELS.
HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO IS COMPLEX...WHICH RESULTS IN LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT HANNA CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 150/02. TRACK
MODELS INSIST THAT HANNA WILL START ITS MUCH-ANTICIPATED TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST SOON...AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC LIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
BACK IN. SUCH A TRACK WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
HANNA IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT MAKES ITS APPROACH TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...UNTIL HANNA BEGINS A
MORE DEFINITIVE MOTION...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE
POTENTIAL IMPACT AREA. IN ADDITION...THE ANTICIPATED ANGLE OF
APPROACH TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST MEANS THAN ONLY A
SMALL DEVIATION LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS IN BOTH TIME AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL. IN FACT...THE
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE
SHOWS THAT THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE ABOUT EQUAL AT
EACH SPECIFIC LOCATION ALONG THE COAST FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 20.4N 72.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 20.9N 73.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 22.2N 74.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 23.5N 75.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 25.4N 77.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 30.5N 80.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 38.0N 78.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/1800Z 47.0N 66.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 022344
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
800 PM AST TUE SEP 02 2008

...HANNA DRIFTING EASTWARD...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO BAHIA DE
MANZANILLO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST OR ABOUT
65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND ABOUT 450 MILES...725 KM...SOUTHEAST OF
NASSAU.

HANNA HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HANNA WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TOMORROW...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND HANNA
COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THAT PERIOD.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...320 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND EASTERN CUBA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA WHERE THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...20.5 N...72.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
0300 UTC WED SEP 03 2008

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED
A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO BAHIA DE
MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR HAITI
FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HANNA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 72.4W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......200NE 175SE 75SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 90SE 60SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 72.4W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 72.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.3N 72.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...200NE 175SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.8N 73.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 24.4N 75.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 26.4N 77.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 32.5N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 41.0N 75.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 50.0N 60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 72.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 02 2008

...HANNA NEARLY STATIONARY...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED
A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO BAHIA DE
MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR HAITI
FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...105 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 450
MILES...720 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

HANNA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...A NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...HANNA WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
OVERNIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND HANNA
COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THAT PERIOD.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND EASTERN CUBA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA WHERE THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...20.5 N...72.4 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...988 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

THE LAST COUPLE OF FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATED THAT HANNA WAS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. IT SEEMS THAT
HANNA IS MAKING A SMALL COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP BETWEEN HISPANIOLA
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. I HAVE TO GIVE SOME CREDIT TO THE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS WHICH PREDICTED THIS LOOP A FEW DAYS AGO...
HOWEVER THEY INDICATED THAT HANNA WOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
WHEN IT OCCURRED. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED HANNA THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HANNA
HAS WEAKENED EVEN MORE. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AT 55 KT SINCE ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE STORM AROUND 0600 UTC.

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO SHEAR HANNA.
BUT...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO CUT-OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST OF HANNA VERY SOON...AND THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT THIS IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR. AS THE
UPPER-LOW CUTS-OFF IT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD WHICH SHOULD
TURN THE UPPER-FLOW OVER THE STORM FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
WHICH WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE. AT
96 HOURS...HANNA WAS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL STORM...BECAUSE IT IS
PREDICTED TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND THERE COULD STILL BE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER
WATER AT THAT TIME.

THE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST THAT HANNA WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
VERY SOON AS THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD...ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC TO BUILD WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO STEER
HANNA ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME OF THE TRACK
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
EASTWARD DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD
INITIAL LOCATION...BUT THEREAFTER IT REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AS A REMINDER...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT TRACK AS SMALL DEVIATIONS LEFT OR RIGHT WOULD HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS ON BOTH THE TIME AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL. A G-IV
MISSION WAS FLOWN THIS EVENING AND THE DATA GATHERED BY THIS
AIRCRAFT SHOULD GET ASSIMILATED INTO THE 0000 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 20.5N 72.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 21.3N 72.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 22.8N 73.6W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 24.4N 75.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 26.4N 77.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 32.5N 80.5W 75 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/0000Z 41.0N 75.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 08/0000Z 50.0N 60.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
200 AM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...HANNA DRIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN HAITI...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO BAHIA DE
MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR HAITI
FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST OR JUST EAST
OF ILE DE LA TORTUE HAITI AND ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND.

HANNA HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT SOME
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND HANNA
COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THAT PERIOD.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 990 MB...29.24 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND EASTERN CUBA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA WHERE THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...20.1 N...72.5 W. MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART