Ex Invest 96L - Bay of Campeche

[Sanibel]

What if it gets pulled around the High currently above Gus?

I agree it currently looks like NW and over Mexico.

[HouTXmetro]

I'm having a hard time not believing this will not have a down stream effect on Gustav. Not saying it will Shear Gustav, but maybe it will increase/lower the Pressure Heights to it's East.

[KWT]

May be well inland by the time Gustav reaches the gulf.

Still looking very impressive, must be close to being a Td if not stronger surely!

[HURAKAN]

It's unfortunate that all the radars in the BOC area are not working.

[HURAKAN]

401
ABNT20 KNHC 281759
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GUSTAV...LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF JAMAICA...AND ON
TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 305 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A CONCENTRATED AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE...HAS PERSISTED TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO EVIDENCE YET OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION OVER WATER. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE
MOVING VERY SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO TODAY AND FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS SPARSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA AND IS ABOUT TO EMERGE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

TWD 205:

THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE E PACIFIC SPAWNED A LOW PRES OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB. INTENSE CONVECTION
HAS EXPLODED WITHIN 100 NM OF 19N95W WITH NUMEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES. A COUPLE OF UNCONTAMINATED WIND BARS IN THE 30-35 KT
RANGE ARE NOTED ON AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING NE WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 21N91W TO 30N82W.

[RL3AO]

"INTENSE CONVECTION HAS EXPLODED"

Strange language from TAFB.

[HURAKAN]

CODE ORANGE!

[KWT]

Yep but to be fair its a true enough statement I suppose!

I'd expect a TCFA pretty soon.

[lrak]

I'm worried that Gustav will follow this thing?

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Big area of convection Hurakan, very impressive I have to admit!

[Shawee]

I'm worried that Gustav will follow this thing?

I hope that is does follow... straight into the Mexican mountains!

[Tireman4]

Here is a question. I wonder (outloud) if Texas has ever had two landfalling tropical systems at the same time or same period? My father mentioned the 1930's, but I do wonder.

[HURAKAN]

28/1745 UTC 19.5N 95.4W T1.5/1.5 96L



If there is a LLC, it appears to be close to land.

[KWT]

Its probably still rather broad Hurakan I'd guess, should see it get tighter over the next 12-24hrs I'd have thought.

[lrak]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVR.html

two hours of West wind from Veracruz

Buoy gusting from the S at 35 kts and the wind has been E or ESE all day?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

the satellite loop looks like this thing is spinning a bit?

I agree its real close to the coast



and the steering currents from the image above would indicate it doesn't have enough time for any developement. I'm just curious why the ORANGE alert?

[HURAKAN]

WOW!

Buoy 42055

1:50 pm S ( 178 deg ) 29.7 kts
1:40 pm S ( 174 deg ) 33.4 kts
1:30 pm S ( 171 deg ) 32.6 kts
1:20 pm SSE ( 159 deg ) 23.9 kts
1:10 pm SSE ( 150 deg ) 12.2 kts
1:00 pm SE ( 140 deg ) 14.4 kts


Sustained winds at 33.4 knots at one point, near TS intensity.

You can see in the graphic how the winds picked up:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=CDT

[lrak]

WOW!

Buoy 42055

1:50 pm S ( 178 deg ) 29.7 kts
1:40 pm S ( 174 deg ) 33.4 kts
1:30 pm S ( 171 deg ) 32.6 kts
1:20 pm SSE ( 159 deg ) 23.9 kts
1:10 pm SSE ( 150 deg ) 12.2 kts
1:00 pm SE ( 140 deg ) 14.4 kts


Sustained winds at 33.4 knots at one point, near TS intensity.

You can see in the graphic how the winds picked up:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=CDT

Sad to say but this invest is not going to get any attention until its named. Gus and Hanna have the stage!

[KWT]

I'm surprised they haven't even issued a TCFA given that west winds has held now for quite a while.