Ex Invest 96L - Bay of Campeche

[CrazyC83]

WOW!

Buoy 42055

1:50 pm S ( 178 deg ) 29.7 kts
1:40 pm S ( 174 deg ) 33.4 kts
1:30 pm S ( 171 deg ) 32.6 kts
1:20 pm SSE ( 159 deg ) 23.9 kts
1:10 pm SSE ( 150 deg ) 12.2 kts
1:00 pm SE ( 140 deg ) 14.4 kts


Sustained winds at 33.4 knots at one point, near TS intensity.

You can see in the graphic how the winds picked up:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=CDT

Sad to say but this invest is not going to get any attention until its named. Gus and Hanna have the stage!

That supports TS Ike...

[cycloneye]

18:00 UTC Best Track for 96L:

AL, 96, 2008082818, , BEST, 0, 194N, 956W, 25, 1009, DB, 34

[HURAKAN]

Link: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/index1.html

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 282000Z AUG 08//
storm id: al962008
1. tcfa message

[cpdaman]

looks like it's poofing or the low is moving 100 mph north w/ convection

those bouy's don't show a pressure fall w/ wind rise right? just relatively low pressure that's steady

[HURAKAN]

NW @ 7 knots.

[KWT]

Yep I think that TCFA was needed given the deep convection thats present, we need to watch the deep convection as thats where any LLC could eventually form.

[CrazyC83]

Could there be an LLC embedded in there? There is nothing right now to prove either way.

[HURAKAN]

Veracruz, México:

5 PM (21) Aug 28 82 (28) 73 (23) 29.79 (1008) WNW 5
4 PM (20) No Data
3 PM (19) Aug 28 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) NNW 8
2 PM (18) Aug 28 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.86 (1011) WNW 8 light rain
1 PM (17) No Data
Noon (16) Aug 28 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.87 (1011) W 5 light rain

Link: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVR.html

[HURAKAN]

Buoy 42055:

4:50 pm WSW ( 241 deg ) 15.0 kts
4:40 pm WSW ( 244 deg ) 14.0 kts
4:30 pm WSW ( 238 deg ) 12.4 kts
4:20 pm SW ( 219 deg ) 10.5 kts
4:10 pm SW ( 222 deg ) 11.5 kts
4:00 pm SW ( 218 deg ) 14.4 kts

Link: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=EST

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Veracruz, México:

5 PM (21) Aug 28 82 (28) 73 (23) 29.79 (1008) WNW 5
4 PM (20) No Data
3 PM (19) Aug 28 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) NNW 8
2 PM (18) Aug 28 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.86 (1011) WNW 8 light rain
1 PM (17) No Data
Noon (16) Aug 28 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.87 (1011) W 5 light rain

Link: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVR.html

70% of the time if there is a west wind there is some kind of LLC. Interesting.

[HURAKAN]

Jeff Masters
Disturbance 96L in the Bay of Campeche
Finally, there's a new blob (96L) in the southern Gulf of Mexico, in Mexico's Bay of Campeche. An ASCAT pass at 12:15 pm EDT captured the right side of 96L, and revealed that the storm probably has a surface circulation. A small area of heavy thunderstorm activity has developed on the north side of 96L, as seen on visible satellite loops. NHC has given 96L a medium (20%-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. By Saturday, 96L will be very close to the coast of Mexico, several hundred miles south of the Texas border. There is a 20% chance that this storm will grow large enough to influence the steering currents and wind shear that might impact Gustav when it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

[HURAKAN]

those bouy's don't show a pressure fall w/ wind rise right? just relatively low pressure that's steady

Veracruz says pressure is decreasing:

Pressure (altimeter) 29.79 in. Hg (1008 hPa)
Pressure tendency 0.08 inches (2.8 hPa) lower than three hours ago

Link: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVR.html

[KWT]

Well its still looking good but its only got limited time, the steering currents are forcing the whole lot W/NW. Still think its got time to do something and I think its got to be close to being Td9.

[HURAKAN]

I would expect to see an increase in convection by tomorrow morning. As you may notice, Gustav and Hanna don't look as hot at the moment as they did in the morning. Conditions appear favorable, SST are quite warm and if its moving NW, then it has time.



Notice how low are the pressures in the area.

[HURAKAN]

Conditions at 42055 as of
(5:50 pm EDT)
2150 GMT on 08/28/2008:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:


Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): W ( 280 deg true )
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 3.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.2 sec
Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.77 in
Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.0 °F
Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.5 °F
Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.0 °F
Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 86.7 °F

5:50 pm W ( 273 deg ) 10.5 kts
5:40 pm W ( 271 deg ) 10.9 kts
5:30 pm W ( 268 deg ) 9.7 kts
5:20 pm WSW ( 251 deg ) 10.9 kts
5:10 pm WSW ( 239 deg ) 13.2 kts
5:00 pm SW ( 236 deg ) 14.4 kts

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would think based on that data that a LLC has formed. Lets see if it can get convection over it and get a upgrade.

[lrak]

Conditions at 42055 as of
(5:50 pm EDT)
2150 GMT on 08/28/2008:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:


Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): W ( 280 deg true )
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 3.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.2 sec
Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.77 in
Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.0 °F
Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.5 °F
Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.0 °F
Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 86.7 °F

5:50 pm W ( 273 deg ) 10.5 kts
5:40 pm W ( 271 deg ) 10.9 kts
5:30 pm W ( 268 deg ) 9.7 kts
5:20 pm WSW ( 251 deg ) 10.9 kts
5:10 pm WSW ( 239 deg ) 13.2 kts
5:00 pm SW ( 236 deg ) 14.4 kts

Not good...hurry up and go inland! Having a West wind at that location means the Low is much futher North than the NHC has it on the satellite loop? They have an L right over Veracruz!

Will this affect Gus?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

One good burst of convection could tigthen this enough to make it a depression. If it was farther east like 2-3 degree's, I would be watching for the trough that supposed to turn Gustav to effect this to, but since its going to be inland soon anyways it don't matter.

[KWT]

Yep Matt I think it must be very close now to being a depression, we shall have to wait and see whether it can make it or not.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 15 MILES WEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA...
AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ANY DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS DIMINISHED. DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 2
DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN