ATL: IKE Discussion

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bvigal
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ATL: IKE Discussion

#1 Postby bvigal » Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:10 pm

Where is the 18z model data?
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Re: Invest 97L in Eastern Atlantic=TCFA Issued

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 29, 2008 5:28 pm

It will be important to see how the ridge will be to see if this system will be a threat to the Western Hemisphere or it will go to the open Atlantic without bothering any land areas.
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 29, 2008 5:31 pm

Image

You can see the circulation of 97L.
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Re: Invest 97L in Eastern Atlantic=TCFA Issued

#4 Postby bvigal » Fri Aug 29, 2008 5:44 pm

And I ask again, where is the 18z numerical model data? This happens too often. I don't believe that it's just some guy who does it only when he feels like it, and no one cares. There must be a process, a procedure, and when they don't run, I think there is a reason. So... what would the reason be? Anyone? Data for invests with plenty of promise of development is right on time, every 6 hours. It seems to me the hit-or-miss happens on those which are questionable. So, one shift thinks it looks good and runs it, then the next shift arrives and doesn't agree, so that task gets put on low priority and when it's very busy anyway, it just doesn't happen.
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Re: Invest 97L in Eastern Atlantic=TCFA Issued

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 29, 2008 5:46 pm

bvigal wrote:And I ask again, where is the 18z numerical model data? This happens too often. I don't believe that it's just some guy who does it only when he feels like it, and no one cares. There must be a process, a procedure, and when they don't run, I think there is a reason. So... what would the reason be? Anyone? Data for invests with plenty of promise of development is right on time, every 6 hours. It seems to me the hit-or-miss happens on those which are questionable. So, one shift thinks it looks good and runs it, then the next shift arrives and doesn't agree, so that task gets put on low priority and when it's very busy anyway, it just doesn't happen.


I posted only the graphic of the models in the 97L models thread because the text didnt come out.
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Re: Invest 97L in Eastern Atlantic=TCFA Issued

#6 Postby bvigal » Fri Aug 29, 2008 5:54 pm

cycloneye wrote:
bvigal wrote:And I ask again, where is the 18z numerical model data? This happens too often. I don't believe that it's just some guy who does it only when he feels like it, and no one cares. There must be a process, a procedure, and when they don't run, I think there is a reason. So... what would the reason be? Anyone? Data for invests with plenty of promise of development is right on time, every 6 hours. It seems to me the hit-or-miss happens on those which are questionable. So, one shift thinks it looks good and runs it, then the next shift arrives and doesn't agree, so that task gets put on low priority and when it's very busy anyway, it just doesn't happen.


I posted only the graphic of the models in the 97L models thread because the text didnt come out.


OK, I see that Luis. I ignore the wunderground one because the BAMM said Saturday, so I thought it was a mistake. But SFWM has it. So where is it? I've combed the ftp sites and can't find anything but SHIP data???
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Re: Invest 97L in Eastern Atlantic=TCFA Issued

#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 29, 2008 6:46 pm

879
ABNT20 KNHC 292345
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTH OF LITTLE
CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED
ABOUT 280 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND REMAINS
DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1400
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

:rarrow: THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. FURTHERMORE...THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
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Re: 97L in Eastern Atlantic=8 PM TWO=TD next couple of days

#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 29, 2008 7:09 pm

From 8 PM Discussion:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W S OF 19N WITH A 1006 MB LOW
CENTER ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A BROAD
CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-18N
BETWEEN 18W-24W. SIMILAR CONVECTION...LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 21W-30W. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

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Re: ATL: Invest 97L in Eastern Atlantic

#9 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 29, 2008 7:41 pm

29/2345 UTC 13.1N 22.4W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic Ocean
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L in Eastern Atlantic

#10 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 29, 2008 7:55 pm

It looks like Ike will be named in the next few days according to the model guidance and how the system looks in terms of structure.

Here is the 00:00 UTC Best Track.

AL, 97, 2008083000, , BEST, 0, 135N, 225W, 25, 1006, DB,
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L in Eastern Atlantic

#11 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 29, 2008 8:01 pm

Remember 97 and 98L they both had to deal with cold water above 12 north once they went westward. Bertha also had to deal with it, so this sould be no different once it moves westward.
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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 29, 2008 9:12 pm

Image

Slowly but surely, it's organizing. We should see TD #9 come out of this.
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L in Eastern Atlantic

#13 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 29, 2008 9:26 pm

:uarrow: It has a large circulation envelope.Structure looks very good.
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L in Eastern Atlantic

#14 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 29, 2008 9:29 pm

cycloneye wrote::uarrow: It has a large circulation envelope.Structure looks very good.


Very similar to Helene in 2006. It could very well develop but it will be slow to occur.
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#15 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Aug 29, 2008 9:34 pm

I'm on board for a long westward tracker here.
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L in Eastern Atlantic

#16 Postby meteorologyman » Fri Aug 29, 2008 10:28 pm

The models forecast nw movement but, nhc states it to move westward.
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L in Eastern Atlantic

#17 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Sat Aug 30, 2008 12:53 am

TAFB this evening forecast a westward track...

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L in Eastern Atlantic

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 30, 2008 12:57 am

ABNT20 KNHC 300556
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN
ISLAND...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES
NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...AND ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

:rarrow: A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TODAY AND EARLY ON SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L in Eastern Atlantic

#19 Postby thetruesms » Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:18 am

It was a lovely surprise to hover over the orange blob on the NHC site and be treated to a red box 8-) Given that Gustav and Hanna are out there as well, I've really had to put this on the backburner, but I'm hoping I'll have plenty of time to get to know this system
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#20 Postby bob rulz » Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:42 am

Red is warranted I believe. It has a very tight circulation and convection has been on the increase. It'll be interesting to see how the convection will react during d-max. I'm guessing tropical depression 5pm at the earliest, more than likely by 11am Sunday. All it needs is more convection and it's set, although it may struggle to get going as it moves westward.

And poor 97L has been ignored due to Gustav and Hanna. That big red circle on the map should get it more attention.
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