ATL: IKE Discussion

[wyq614]

According to ECWMF, 97L could eventually become a cat.5 hurricane with maximum winds of 72m/s

Is it believable?

[SouthFLTropics]

CODE RED!!!

[KWT]

Yep not really surprising this one looks good to be a TD very soon, our next true Cape Verde system, don't look at the ECM!

[SouthFLTropics]

Yep not really surprising this one looks good to be a TD very soon, our next true Cape Verde system, don't look at the ECM!

Sorry but I've got to tempt fate...do you have a link for the ECM...I saw a still pic of it on the previous page and it appeared to be in the FL Straights as a significant cane...This far out that would be like saying the Dolphins are going to win the Super Bowl this year!!!

SFT

[KWT]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

[wyq614]

Please read

http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=19283

[SouthFLTropics]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008083000!!chart.gif

Well, that is just plain nasty...The Euro sure has had it in for FLA the past few days...First Hanna and now this. At 11 days out though I think we are being detoured into the land of make believe. Let's hope it stays that way.

SFT

[KWT]

Well right now 97L is way way east of being a threat and it has an awful large body of water before we can even start to think about any problems down the road.

For now it does look like being a CV storm and a long tracker.

[HURAKAN]

Big system.

[KWT]

Yep it sure is, no really good area of concentrated convection other than near Cape Verde however.

[SouthFLTropics]

Man that is a big disturbance...

"That's no moon! It's a space station!!!"

SFT

[bob rulz]

Yep not really surprising this one looks good to be a TD very soon, our next true Cape Verde system, don't look at the ECM!

Sorry but I've got to tempt fate...do you have a link for the ECM...I saw a still pic of it on the previous page and it appeared to be in the FL Straights as a significant cane...This far out that would be like saying the Dolphins are going to win the Super Bowl this year!!!

SFT

I'd say that this has a better shot of becoming a cat 5 than the Dolphins have of winning the Super Bowl.

This continues to look better organized. It generally seems that Cape Verde storms that form this far east are most likely to form from very gradually-intensifying systems. Very few rapid blow-ups, and huge waves half the time seem to fall apart as soon as they hit the water. The East Atlantic is a fickle region.

[HURAKAN]

Large 97L.

[cycloneye]

076
ABNT20 KNHC 301147
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
CUBA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES
NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECT THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[WhirlWind]

Well now that is just what we need......Enough already!!!!
WhirlWind

[cycloneye]

The 12:00 UTC Best track has the pressure down to 1004 mbs.

AL, 97, 2008083012, , BEST, 0, 142N, 255W, 30, 1004, DB,

[HenkL]

At 12Z there were 2 ships just N of the Cape Verde Islands:
callsign DCLH2 (Monte Sarmiento, Germany): wind 050° 29 kt, press 1007.0
callsign OYLL2 (Lexa Maersk, Great Brittan): wind 060° 33 kt, press 1012.1

station Sal on Cape Verde: wind 120° 14 kt, press 1009.9

[HURAKAN]

[meteorologyman]

Good Grief. This Hurricane Season is bringing in both 2004 and 2005 this year for US.

Arthur hits Mexico
Bertha-Bermuda (B hit B)hmmmm
Christobal-Carolinas (C hit C)hmmm
Dolly -Texas
Edouard-Texas
Fay-FLorida (4x's) (F hit F) hmmm
Gustav-possibly Louisiana
Hanna-possibly FL once again.
Ike- as mentioned above what could be Ike has models heading for FL but that could definately change.

[HURAKAN]

961
ABNT20 KNHC 301751
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GUSTAV...LOCATED NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA...AND ON TROPICAL
STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 265 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND
TURK ISLAND.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1025 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS FROM THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN