ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[PTrackerLA]

Expect to see some shift right in the GFDL and HWRF if the trends I've been noticing persist.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

HWRF and GFDL blended would split matagorda bay.

Ike has picked up forward speed and 3 hour heading based on VDMs is about 275.

If it can keep heading for a few more hours, HWRF and GFDL would be more accurate around matagorda bay.

DWG, is this the direction that NHC has progged? I think you have to try to stay away from VDM's in the short term, especially with an awkward eye formation, because they can represent very inaccurate directions. i.e. if a closer to southern eye reading is noted and a closer to the north part of the eye is read the next time, rather than middle to middle, the track direction would appear to be much more northerly than it really is. I think DeltaDog posted a great post a few days back of a graphic to represent that potential flaw in using these. If you had maybe 3 or more readings to connect, then a better directional heading could be established, as well as forward speed.

[Extremeweatherguy]

[micktooth]

Latest GFS

[Sanibel]

GFS shows direct Galveston hit now.

More like right on the NHC track right near Freeport. Track is solidifying.

[rainman]

Looks a little east of the current nhc track.

One thing to note is that even though the SE US is doing special 6 hourly balloon releases due to Ike, the 12z and 00z models should have just a tad more weight in their accuracies because they are inputed with the upper air data from the upper low.

[JessRomero]

I think it is going to shift east little by little with each models run. I just hope i don't hit directly here. Boy that would be bad!! But I am leaving town with everything just to better to be to safe than sorry.

[dwg71]

HWRF and GFDL blended would split matagorda bay.

Ike has picked up forward speed and 3 hour heading based on VDMs is about 275.

If it can keep heading for a few more hours, HWRF and GFDL would be more accurate around matagorda bay.

DWG, is this the direction that NHC has progged? I think you have to try to stay away from VDM's in the short term, especially with an awkward eye formation, because they can represent very inaccurate directions. i.e. if a closer to southern eye reading is noted and a closer to the north part of the eye is read the next time, rather than middle to middle, the track direction would appear to be much more northerly than it really is. I think DeltaDog posted a great post a few days back of a graphic to represent that potential flaw in using these. If you had maybe 3 or more readings to connect, then a better directional heading could be established, as well as forward speed.

went back and pegged three together spanning 5 1/2 hours.

11 minutes north and 41 west about 280 or so.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12Z GFDL Right back in Gal Bay....

I think we have our Landfall down to 50 mile stretch IMO..

[shah8]

HWRF is more north.

However, it's on crack intensity-wise. It weakens the hurricane to 978mb before landfall, with TS strength winds.

Is it predicting the Mother of All Shear Decapitations, or something?

[shah8]

GFDL is show mid cat 3 strength at landfall.

[ronjon]

12Z GFDL - couldn't be a worst path then this.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008091112-ike09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[DESTRUCTION5]

12Z HWRF Shifted a but further N...Just south of Freeport now..

[shah8]

One interesting thing about the gfdl is that the storm continues NW for quite a ways in.

That could mean that hurricane force wind will be present around the landfall area for a *very* long time.

[Stormcenter]

I think it is going to shift east little by little with each models run. I just hope i don't hit directly here. Boy that would be bad!! But I am leaving town with everything just to better to be to safe than sorry.

There aren't many more model runs left before he's inland.

[I-wall]

Can we expect another shift to the right in the next advisory?

[rainman]

I could imagine a slight shift to the right...given the current movement is slightly more north than anticipated

[dwg71]

are these models taking a rita track again, i can help but wonder the NNW jog by ike and the models swing over galveston bay??

They alway go left it seems... anothe nnw jog and it really possible.

[pablolopez26]

I think at this point in my totally non-professional opinion, we should watch one more model run and by that model run we should see a consensus of where Ike is going to hit.

From that point forward, just keep watching him on visible satellite imagery and radar as he approaches close to the coast. Some long range radars will be sure to pick up his every move, wobble, and position.

Good luck to all of us!

[southerngale]

sigh...



12Z Euro