ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[DESTRUCTION5]

sigh...

God I hate them matchmaker pop-up adds..LOL

[terstorm1012]

forgive me for asking what may be a stupid question, but am I looking at 12z or 18z for the model runs here?

Good luck to all of you down there. You're in my thoughts.

[jimguru]

forgive me for asking what may be a stupid question, but am I looking at 12z or 18z for the model runs here?

Good luck to all of you down there. You're in my thoughts.

Should be the 12z -Jim

[HouTXmetro]

Where is the latest EURO, image not showing up?

[jimguru]

Where is the latest EURO, image not showing up?

The 18z?

[Brent]

Where is the latest EURO, image not showing up?

It's a direct hit on Houston/Galveston.

[Sanibel]

If you have been tracking GFDL it has been incredibly accurate about 48-60 hours out. Ike looks to be headed for Houston where GFDL had it about 24 hours ago. That will be 48-60 out when Ike landfalls.

Perhaps this right trend will continue past Houston?

[HouTXmetro]

Idunno, statistically these things go right of the forecast. But less than 48 hours out, the chances a rapidly decreasing.

[micktooth]

It seems that most models had Ike at 90W 86N, but it looks more that Ike is 89W 86N any thoughts?

[Sabanic]

Idunno, statistically these things go right of the forecast. But less than 48 hours out, the chances a rapidly decreasing.

I beg to differ with you. Ivan for one made a 40 mile turn to the east landfall of where he was projected at 8:00 PM. Landfall was at 12:30 AM. That's 35-40 miles of difference in 4-1/2 hours.

Anything is possible with these hurricanes

[dwg71]

Idunno, statistically these things go right of the forecast. But less than 48 hours out, the chances a rapidly decreasing.

I beg to differ with you. Ivan for one made a 40 mile turn to the east landfall of where he was projected at 8:00 PM. Landfall was at 12:30 AM. That's 35-40 miles of difference in 4-1/2 hours.

Anything is possible with these hurricanes

go back and look at Rita, and I believe they still had it west of Galveston, and it hit in another state at this juncture.

[dwg71]

It seems that most models had Ike at 90W 86N, but it looks more that Ike is 89W 86N any thoughts?

vdm 25.9 89.2

[attallaman]

OT:

Last week someone posted here about a free hurricane tracking software, I went to the website and installed it, pretty cool stuff. I attempted to use it today and a pop up message said my trial period had ended. If I wanted to continue using the service click here and pay $34.95 for a one year membership fee using a major credit card. If I get into trouble mentioning the website it was "Tracking the Eye.net." I decided not to join and pay the $34.95 annual membership fee because I'm only in here during the tropical season. Can anyone here recommend another hurricane tracking site that offers a similar service that is free?

[smw1981]

Idunno, statistically these things go right of the forecast. But less than 48 hours out, the chances a rapidly decreasing.

I respectfully disagree! IMO they usually do the little hook right "at the last second" around 12 hours from landfall or under. (24 hours at the most if I can remember correctly...of course, I could be not remembering correctly! )

[Wx_Warrior]

Can't believe no post about the 18z GFS...

BTW...Same spot...west end of Galv.

[jimguru]

OT:

Last week someone posted here about a free hurricane tracking software, I went to the website and installed it, pretty cool stuff. I attempted to use it today and a pop up message said my trial period had ended. If I wanted to continue using the service click here and pay $34.95 for a one year membership fee using a major credit card. If I get into trouble mentioning the website it was "Tracking the Eye.net." I decided not to join and pay the $34.95 annual membership fee because I'm only in here during the tropical season. Can anyone here recommend another hurricane tracking site that offers a similar service that is free?

I did the exact same thing, but went ahead last night and paid the fee - it also does Pacific Storms so for the price I think its fair, and every year after it is $19.95. On the other hand, you can still use the software just have to enter the data manually. -Jim

[AL Chili Pepper]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L
INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 11

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 25.8 88.8 300./ 8.0
6 26.1 89.8 290./ 9.0
12 26.5 90.8 292./ 9.7
18 26.9 91.9 290./10.7
24 27.6 92.7 309./10.0
30 28.4 93.9 305./13.4
36 29.4 95.0 311./14.2
42 30.6 95.8 328./13.7
48 32.1 96.3 341./15.4
54 33.7 96.1 8./16.6
60 35.6 95.1 27./20.0
66 37.5 93.2 45./24.2
72 39.1 89.9 64./30.9
78 40.9 85.5 68./37.8
84 42.6 81.0 69./37.6
90 44.1 75.9 74./40.0
96 45.6 70.2 75./42.9
102 47.0 65.7 74./33.9
108 48.5 61.7 69./31.0

Galveston.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yep...Same as 12z.

[Wx_Warrior]

18z hwrf

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008091118-ike09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[AL Chili Pepper]

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