WPAC INVEST 90W - Discussion (NE of Guam)

[Chacor]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.8N
1521.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 153.5E, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
NORTHEAST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COUPLED WITH BROAD BUT CONSOLIDATING
CYCLONIC TURNING AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS
DISPLACED FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND IS RELATIVELY SPARSE AS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL CONTINUES TO TRANSIT WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
AS THE TUTT BEARS INCREASINGLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, C-130 RECON DATA AND A
281923Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOW MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AND
INDICATIONS OF MULTIPLE WEAK AND POORLY DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATIONS
EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS
LOW TO MODERATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[Chacor]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.7N
153.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 153.7E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM NORTH
OF MINAMITORI ISLAND, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK, BARELY DISCERNIBLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF CENTER. A 300043Z TMI 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS WEAK
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. RECENT QUIKSCAT
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY CONVERGENT FLOW FEEDING
INTO A STRONGER, FULLY EXPOSED LLCC NEAR 29N 148E. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS DISPLACED SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER NEAR 26N 153E WITH
CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE LLCC AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SO
OVERALL A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.