ATL IKE: HPC Advisories

[Brent]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0900 UTC SAT SEP 13 2008

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS DISCONTINUED SOUTH
OF PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 95.0W AT 13/0900Z...INLAND
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT.......110NE 90SE 55SW 55NW.
50 KT.......150NE 160SE 80SW 75NW.
34 KT.......225NE 200SE 125SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 390SE 150SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 95.0W AT 13/0900Z...INLAND
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 94.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.5N 95.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 200SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 34.6N 93.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 38.6N 89.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 42.5N 81.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 95.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...EYE OF IKE MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE GALVESTON-HOUSTON AREA...

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS DISCONTINUED SOUTH
OF PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST OR NEAR BAYTOWN TEXAS.
THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM...EAST OF HOUSTON
TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN TEXAS TODAY...AND INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...ALTHOUGH
IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260
MILES...415 KM. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WELL
INLAND NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 96 MPH...154 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT THE GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 951.6 MB...28.10 INCHES...AS THE EYE
OF IKE PASSED OVER THE STATION.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO
25 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS A
GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE
OF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
ARE REPORTING STORM SURGES OF 9 TO 12 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
LOUISIANA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...29.7 N...95.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 600 AM CDT AND 800 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

THE 40 NM WIDE EYE OF IKE MADE LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
JUST AFTER 0700 UTC. AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE
LANDFALL INTENSITY WAS 95 KT...CATEGORY 2 ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON
SCALE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE LANDFALL PRESSURE WAS NEAR
952 MB. THE STORM HAS NOT YET HAD TIME TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN...
SO 95 KT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. IKE SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...WITH THE CYCLONE
FORECAST TO DROP BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON SUNDAY. IKE IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY 48 HR AND BE ABSORBED
INTO A FRONTAL ZONE THEREAFTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER WOBBLY 325/11. IKE IS ROUNDING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...AND IT SHOULD RECURVE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE
WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO...WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A LITTLE SPREAD IN THE FORWARD
SPEED AFTER RECURVATURE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE
TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

EVEN THOUGH IKE HAS MADE LANDFALL...IT REMAINS A VERY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH EFFECTS FELT AT LONG DISTANCES FROM THE
CENTER. WATER LEVELS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS MAY CONTINUE TO RISE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR WELL INLAND
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF IKE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 29.7N 95.0W 95 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 95.2W 65 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 14/0600Z 34.6N 93.9W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/1800Z 38.6N 89.2W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 15/0600Z 42.5N 81.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 16/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 131259
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 49B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES TO POUND EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH WINDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA MAY BE
REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM CDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR JUST NORTHEAST OF
CONROE TEXAS. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 20 MILES... 30 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE...AND ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LUFKIN TEXAS.

IKE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...29 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY...AND INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...145 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...IKE COULD REMAIN A
HURRICANE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260
MILES...415 KM. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA DURING THE PAST HOUR...
AND HOUSTON-HOBBY AIRPORT RECENTLY RECEIVED A WIND GUST OF 92
MPH...148 KM/HR. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO BEING REPORTED
ALONG A LARGE STRETCH OF THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
COASTAL AREAS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.
CONROE AIRPORT RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 962.4 MB...28.42
INCHES...VERY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 15 FEET...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO
20 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS A
GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE
OF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
ARE STILL REPORTING STORM SURGES OF 9 TO 12 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE PASSES YOUR AREA.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
LOUISIANA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

REPEATING THE 800 AM CDT POSITION...30.5 N...95.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.

$$

[HURAKAN]

703
WTNT24 KNHC 131440
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1500 UTC SAT SEP 13 2008

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM EAST OF SARGENT
TEXAS EASTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 10 AM CDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM
SARGENT TEXAS WESTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 95.3W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 65NE 85SE 55SW 45NW.
34 KT.......125NE 200SE 125SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 425SE 150SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 95.3W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 95.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.2N 95.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 36.7N 92.3W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 40.6N 86.2W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 44.5N 77.2W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 95.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

WTNT34 KNHC 131441
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...IKE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS...
...IKE STILL A HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADO THREAT...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM EAST OF SARGENT
TEXAS EASTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 10 AM CDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM
SARGENT TEXAS WESTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR NEAR TRINITY
TEXAS. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE TEXAS...AND ABOUT 35 MILES...60 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LUFKIN TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY...AND INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...IKE COULD REMAIN A
HURRICANE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM. A WIND GUST TO 56 MPH...91 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED
DURING THE PAST HOUR IN LUFKIN TEXAS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.
DURING THE PAST HOUR...A PRESSURE VALUE OF 968.5 MB...28.60
INCHES...WAS REPORTED AT HUNTSVILLE TEXAS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER
OF HURRICANE IKE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...
WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 20 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS WELL INLAND...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS A
GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE
OF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ARE STILL REPORTING STORM
SURGES VALUES OF TO 12 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI...
ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH
SUNDAY.

A THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...31.0 N...95.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 50A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...IKE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER EASTERN TEXAS...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADOES STILL A THREAT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF SARGENT
TEXAS EASTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF
PALESTINE TEXAS. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...
SOUTH OF TYLER TEXAS...AND ABOUT 70 MILES...110 KM...SOUTHWEST OF
LONGVIEW TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY...AND INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND IKE IS NOW A STRONG TROPICAL STORM.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER
INLAND...AND IKE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240
KM...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...
WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 20 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS WELL INLAND...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS A
GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE
OF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ARE STILL REPORTING STORM
SURGES VALUES OF TO 12 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI...
ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH
SUNDAY.

A THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...31.6 N...95.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
2100 UTC SAT SEP 13 2008

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA COASTLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 95.3W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 30SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 425SE 150SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 95.3W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 95.4W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 35.1N 93.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 38.9N 88.9W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 43.0N 80.3W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 95.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...IKE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADOES REMAIN A THREAT...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA COASTLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF
TYLER TEXAS. THIS IS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS AND ABOUT 105 MILES...170
KM...SOUTHWEST OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF IKE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS
TODAY...AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER
MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND IKE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 980.7 MB...28.96
INCHES...WAS MEASURED AT TYLER TEXAS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE
FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED
TIDE GAGES ARE STILL REPORTING STORM SURGE VALUES OF 8 TO 10 FT
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
COASTAL AREAS. TIDE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IKE MOVES FARTHER INLAND AWAY FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...WHICH
WILL BRING STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY.

A THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...32.4 N...95.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

IKE IS STEADILY WINDING DOWN AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT IKE IS BARELY
ABOVE TROPICAL STORM THRESHOLD...DESPITE THE RATHER LOW PRESSURE OF
980.7 MB RECENTLY REPORTED AT TYLER TEXAS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
SHOULD OCCUR AS IKE MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS...AND THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT. IKE
IS FORECAST OT MERGE WITH A STOUT COLD FRONT IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...
AFTER WHICH THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LATITUDE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER-MIDWEST...AND THEN OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/16. IKE CONTINUES TO ROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT ON A RAPID NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH ARKANSAS...
MISSOURI...ILLINOIS..AND INDIANA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN MANY
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN ANTICIPATION OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW-LEVELS...AND THEN
ACCELERATING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HOSTILE
VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS OF MORE THAN 110 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE TIMING OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NOAA
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER.

ALTHOUGH IKE IS QUICKLY DEGENERATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN
LOUISIANA...AND ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCING FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS WELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 32.4N 95.3W 40 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 14/0600Z 35.1N 93.9W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 14/1800Z 38.9N 88.9W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
36HR VT 15/0600Z 43.0N 80.3W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
48HR VT 15/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 132359
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 51A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
700 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND TORNADOES CONTINUES AS IKE HEADS
FARTHER INLAND...

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED
INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES...80 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TEXARKANA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF IKE WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE
MIDWESTERN STATES ON SUNDAY AS IKE LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IKE MOVES
FARTHER INLAND...AND IT IS EXPECTED BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS IS STILL OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IKE MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...WHICH
WILL BRING STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...33.3 N...94.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 140254
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...IKE STILL A TROPICAL STORM AS IT HEADS INTO ARKANSAS...

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9
WEST...ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...NORTH OF TEXARKANA...AND ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI ON SUNDAY
MORNING...AND OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES LATER ON SUNDAY AS IKE
LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IKE MOVES FARTHER
INLAND...AND IT IS EXPECTED BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY ON SUNDAY. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
BY MONDAY AFTER IKE LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IKE MOVES
FARTHER INLAND.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...NORTHERN
INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY IN NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...34.3 N...93.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

WTNT44 KNHC 140259
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

IKE STILL EXHIBITS SOLID AND WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BANDS IN RADAR
IMAGERY AND CERTAINLY STILL QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KT WERE REPORTED EAST OF THE CENTER AT
TEXARKANA AT SYNOPTIC TIME...AND THE BAND THAT PRODUCED THOSE WINDS
HAS NOT YET PASSED OVER ANOTHER SURFACE OBSERVING SITE. RADAR
VELOCITIES FROM SHREVEPORT AND LITTLE ROCK DO NOT PROVIDE MUCH
EVIDENCE THAT THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED THIS
EVENING...SO I AM COMPELLED TO ASSUME THAT IKE IS STILL PRODUCING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE SOMEWHERE AT THE
SURFACE...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER LOW
AT ABOUT 982 MB. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL ANTICIPATED AS IKE
PROCEEDS NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND...ALTHOUGH AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE IT COULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND OVER ATLANTIC CANADA IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ROUNDING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...IKE IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES...AND MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION AT ADVISORY TIME IS
025/21. EVEN THOUGH IKE WILL LIKELY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW IKE
REMAINING A DISTINCT ENTITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE
SHOWS POINTS OUT TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE EXTRATROPICAL
VERSION OF IKE SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A LARGER LOW AT VERY
HIGH LATITUDES.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 34.3N 93.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 37.4N 91.2W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 15/0000Z 42.2N 82.7W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 15/1200Z 46.8N 71.6W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 16/0000Z 51.0N 59.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 52A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...IKE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS...

AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IKE WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST...OR
ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM...EAST OF FORT SMITH ARKANSAS AND ABOUT
105 MILES...170 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATER THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE MIDWESTERN
STATES LATER TODAY AS IKE LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...
55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
IKE MOVES FARTHER INLAND TODAY. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
BY MONDAY AFTER IKE LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS TODAY AS IKE MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...NORTHERN
INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN NORTHERN LOUISIANA...
ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...35.4 N...93.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[fasterdisaster]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 140840
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...IKE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.5 WEST OR NEAR BULL
SHOALS ARKANSAS. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 115 MILES...
185 KM...NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS...AND ABOUT 75 MILES...
120 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH...50 KM/HR. A
GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF IKE THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES STATES BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AS IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT. THE SYSTEM COULD
STRENGTHEN AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. WINDS OF
30 TO 35 MPH...50 TO 55 KM/HR...WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH...65 TO
70 KM/HR...HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT SEVERAL STATIONS IN EASTERN
ARKANSAS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS TODAY.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES FROM MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...36.4 N...92.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE ADVISORIES ON IKE WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON DC.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[fasterdisaster]

000
WTNT24 KNHC 140840
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0900 UTC SUN SEP 14 2008

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 92.5W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 26 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 92.5W AT 14/0900Z...INLAND
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 93.7W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 40.4N 87.0W...INLAND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 45.6N 76.5W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 50.0N 65.3W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 55.0N 52.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z...MERGED WITH LARGER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.4N 92.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON DC.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[fasterdisaster]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 140841
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IKE WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH 25 TO 30 KT WINDS
AND HIGHER GUSTS OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE
SURFACE DATA SHOW A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING IKE...WITH AN AREA OF
25-35 KT WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT FROM SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS
IS THE FIRST SIGN OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT IKE WILL LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT MERGES WITH THE FRONT. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE...WITH IKE
PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS UNTIL IT MERGES WITH A LARGER LOW IN
ABOUT 72 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 045/26. IKE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN CONTINUE
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE LARGER LOW
AT VERY HIGH LATITUDE.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON IKE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON DC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 36.4N 92.5W 30 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 14/1800Z 40.4N 87.0W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 15/0600Z 45.6N 76.5W 35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 15/1800Z 50.0N 65.3W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 16/0600Z 55.0N 52.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 17/0600Z...MERGED WITH LARGER LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KWNH 141455
TCPAT3

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 54 FOR REMNANTS OF IKE
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL092006
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...REMNANTS OF IKE RACING NORTHEAST AND CONTINUING TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...

FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL TEXAS INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL FLOOD AND
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
MUCH OF ILLINOIS...ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.
MANY COUNTIES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
THROUGH THESE AREAS.

AT 1000 AM CDT...15Z...LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WAS IKE...WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 39.0 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST...OR 60 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. LOUIS MISSOURI. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH OR 64 KM/HR.

THE LOW WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ACROSS INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THIS EVENING. BY MONDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 TO 40 MPH...55 TO 65 KM/HR...WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 987 MB...OR
29.15 INCHES.

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 700 AM CDT

...LOUISIANA...
NATCHITOCHES 3.68
GOLDONNA 2.57
MONROE 2.45

...TEXAS...
MISSION BEND 7.37
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR 4.99
HUNTSVILLE 4.90
COLLEGE STATION 3.45
TYLER 2.69
PARIS 2.44

...ARKANSAS...
FAYETTEVILLE/DRAKE 4.35
HARRISON 2.26
FORT SMITH 2.23

...MISSISSIPPI...

...ILLINOIS...
QUINCY 3.04
PEORIA 3.67


...MISSOURI...
FAIR GROVE 5.52
ASHLAND 5.39
BUFFALO 5.28
LIBERAL 5.25
CROSS TIMBERS 5.18
BROOKFIELD 5.11
COLE CAMP 5.06
PLATTSBURG 5.06
HERMITAGE 5.06
JEFFERSON CITY 5.06
HIGHLANDVILLE 5.02
WHEATLAND 5.02
FORNEY AAF 4.63
COLUMBIA 4.60

...KANSAS...
MCCUNE 3.80
COFFEYVILLE 3.16

...OKLAHOMA...
CLAREMORE 2.44
MUSKOGEE 2.38
SAND SPRINGS 2.10


THE REMNANTS OF IKE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...39.0 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE
89.0 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 TO 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SUNDAY BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

ECKERT/FRACASSO

FORECAST POSITIONS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 39.0N 89.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 15/0000Z 42.2N 81.1W...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 15/1200Z 48.1N 69.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
$$

[cycloneye]

844
WTNT34 KWNH 142048
TCPAT4

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 55 FOR REMNANTS OF IKE
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL092008
400 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...REMNANTS OF IKE RACING NORTHEAST AND PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL...STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS...

FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL TEXAS INTO
EASTERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL FLOOD AND
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF ILLINOIS...NORTHERN
INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. MANY COUNTIES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION.

THE REMNANTS OF IKE ARE SUPPORTING STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS THRU
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. SEVERAL STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES AND STRUCTUAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS.

AT 400 PM CDT...21Z...LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WAS IKE...WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST...OR 40 MILES
WEST OF TOLEDO...OHIO. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH OR 80
KM/HR.

THE LOW WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD...ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. BY MONDAY
MORNING THE LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 TO 45 MPH...65 TO 80 KM/HR...WITH
GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH...95 TO 115 KM/HR. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 990 MB...OR 29.23 INCHES.

SELECTED HIGH WIND REPORTS SINCE 700 AM SUNDAY

LOUISVILLE KY 75 MPH
COVINGTON KY 74 MPH
HUNTINGBURG IN 67 MPH
FORT KNOX KY 64 MPH
OWENSBORO KY 63 MPH
WALNUT RIDGE AR 62 MPH
POPULAR BLUFF MO 61 MPH
CINCINNATI/LUNKIN 61 MPH


SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 100 PM CDT

...LOUISIANA...
NATCHITOCHES 3.68
GOLDONNA 2.57
MONROE 2.45

...TEXAS...
SPRING BRANCH (HARRIS COUNTY) 15.20
CYPRESS CREEK (HARRIS COUNTY) 14.21
HALLS BAYOU (HARRIS COUNTY) 13.94
HARRIS GULLEY (HARRIS COUNTY) 10.71
GOOSE CREEK (HARRIS COUNTY) 10.39
BUFFALO BAYOU (HARRIS COUNTY) 10.12
MISSION BEND 7.37
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR 4.99
HUNTSVILLE 4.90
COLLEGE STATION 3.45
TYLER 2.69
PARIS 2.44

...ARKANSAS...
FAYETTEVILLE/DRAKE 4.35
HARRISON 2.26
FORT SMITH 2.23

...ILLINOIS...

DECATUR 5.00
PEORIA 4.74
CAHOKIA 3.69
CHAMPAIGN 3.60
SCOTT AFB 3.42
QUINCY 3.32

...MISSOURI...
FAIR GROVE 5.52
ASHLAND 5.39
JEFFERSON CITY 5.35
BUFFALO 5.28
LIBERAL 5.25
CROSS TIMBERS 5.18
BROOKFIELD 5.11
COLE CAMP 5.06
PLATTSBURG 5.06
HERMITAGE 5.06
HIGHLANDVILLE 5.02
WHEATLAND 5.02
FORNEY AAF 4.82
COLUMBIA 4.72

...KANSAS...
MCCUNE 3.80
COFFEYVILLE 3.16

...OKLAHOMA...
CLAREMORE 2.44
MUSKOGEE 2.38
SAND SPRINGS 2.10


THE REMNANTS OF IKE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL INTO
THIS EVENING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS IT MOVES INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
SYSTEM FROM NORTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN VERMONT. WINDS OF 30 TO
50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD BE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...41.6 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE
84.5 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUST OVER
60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT SUNDAY BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

ECKERT/FRACASSO

FORECAST POSITIONS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 41.6N 84.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 15/0600Z 44.8N 76.7W...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 15/1800Z 49.6N 64.4W...EXTRATROPICAL
$$

[cycloneye]

The last advisory by HPC.

000
WTNT34 KWNH 150314
TCPAT4

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 56 FOR REMNANTS OF IKE
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL092008
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...REMNANTS OF IKE RACING NORTHEAST...

FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST
INDIANA...AND MICHIGAN. SEE http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV FOR THE MOST CURRENT
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 1000 PM CDT...03Z...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.8
NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST...OR 135 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ROCHESTER NY...OR 70 MILES NORTH OF TORONTO CANADA. THE LOW IS
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH OR 80 KM/HR.

THE LOW WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD...ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...INTO LABRADOR LATE
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH...48 KM/HR...WITH GUSTS OF 40
MPH...64 KM/HR. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 986 MB...OR 29.11
INCHES.

SELECTED HIGH WIND REPORTS SINCE 700 AM SUNDAY

LOUISVILLE KY 75 MPH
COVINGTON KY 74 MPH
HUNTINGBURG IN 67 MPH
FORT KNOX KY 64 MPH
OWENSBORO KY 63 MPH
WALNUT RIDGE AR 62 MPH
POPULAR BLUFF MO 61 MPH
CINCINNATI/LUNKIN 61 MPH


SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 1000 PM
CDT

...LOUISIANA...
CALCASIEU RIVER NEAR GLENMORA 7.62
DENHAM SPRINGS 6.8N 5.78
AMITE RIVER AT GRANGEVILLE 4.98
OUISKA CHITTO CREEK NEAR OBERLIN 4.54
BAYOU COCODRIE NEAR CLEARWATER 4.27
NATCHITOCHES 3.69
GRAND ENCORE 3.77
JONESBORO 3.45
WEST MONROE 4.1 NW 4.42
ANACOCO 13.7 SW 2.75
ALEXANDRIA 5SSE 2.93
CLEARWATER 2.91
ELMER 2SW 2.87
MONROE 2.45

...TEXAS...
PEASE RIVER NEAR VERNON 18.09
HOUSTON 15.75
SPRING BRANCH (HARRIS COUNTY) 15.20
CYPRESS CREEK (HARRIS COUNTY) 14.21
HALLS BAYOU (HARRIS COUNTY) 13.94
CONROE 4S 13.55
PANTHER BRIDE NEAR SPRING 13.14
WESTFIELD 6W 12.72
NECHES RIVER AT EVADALE 12.53
EVADALE 12.32
COLE CREEK AT DEIHL ROAD 11.03
HOUSTON - C.R. RD BHG 10.95
HARRIS GULLEY (HARRIS COUNTY) 10.71
GOOSE CREEK (HARRIS COUNTY) 10.39
HUMBLE 2N 10.39
BUFFALO BAYOU (HARRIS COUNTY) 10.12
CLEVELAND (SITE 2) 10.01
MOUNT CALM 4E 9.84
HOUSTON 9.49
BUNKER HILL 1SW 9.46
ADDICKS - SO. MAYDE CK 9.22
HOUSTON - COLE CK DEIHL RD 9.21
SPRING 3NW 9.20
HOUSTON - BRAYS BAYOU S MAIN ST 9.14
HOUSTON 9.02
HOUSTON-LANGHAM CK@LITTLE YORK R 8.89
JERSEY VILLAGE 8.74
PASADENA 1NE 8.35

...ARKANSAS...
BIG FORK 2ENE 5.09
EUREKA SPRINGS 4.51
ATHENS 4.51
BERRYVILLE 5NW 4.07
WINSLOW 10WSW 3.97
WINFREY 3.82
BEAVER DAM-WHITE RIVER 3.76
DEER 3.73

...MISSOURI...

CLINTON 0.9 NNW 8.93
KIRKSVILLE 8.14
CLINTON 7.56
COLOMA 7.56
HOUSTON 4.5 WSW 7.41
COLUMBIA 3.6SW 7.19
NEVADA 2.3 WNW 7.11
DOWNING 6.93
SAVERTON - LOCK & DAM 22 TW 6.92
ASHLAND 0.7 WNW 6.86
WINDSOR 6.73
TROY 6.63
BRUSH CREEK AT WARD PARKWAY KC 6.46
GREEN RIDGE 0.3 NNW 6.61
RUSSELLVILLE 5.9 SE 6.02
OFALLON 5.84

...KANSAS...
MAIZE 5.7S 11.44
UDALL 4.2 ENE 11.02
PLYMOUTH 1SW 10.26
LEON 7.5 SW 10.01
WICHITA MID CONTINENT AIRPT 9.56
PARK CITY 3.0 WSW 9.18
EMPORIA 5.5 NNE 9.08
EL DORADO 7.9 NNW 8.90
SMILEYBERG 8.88
ROSE HILL 2.7 ESE 8.39
AUGUSTA 1WNW 8.36
EL DORADO 4NE - DAM (INACT) 8.03
ROCK 7.95
EL DORADO (CITY WATER PLANT) 7.79
NEOSHO RAPIDS 7.59
AUGUSTA 7.42
THRALL 4S 7.38
ROSALIA 7.25
MADISON 6.80

...OKLAHOMA...

MOORELAND 0.4 ESE 5.82
SAYRE 5.8 NW 4.66
KANSAS 1ESE 4.56
DRAKE FIELD 4.35
ERICK 0.2 NE 4.35
TALIHINA 3ENE 4.30
MAYO-L&D 14 4.22
NEW EUCHA 5W 4.11
GRANITE 0.6 WSW 4.08
ELDON 4.05
WINSLOW 7NE 4.01
MIAMI 4.00
COLCORD 4N 3.97
HINDSVILLE 3.85
DEVILS DEN STATE PARK 3.85
KANSAS 2NE 3.85


ADDITIONALLY...A FRONT IN THE MIDWEST COMBINED WITH MOISTURE FROM
FORMER EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE RAINFALL WAS LATER ADDED TO BY
THE REMAINS OF IKE ON SUNDAY. HERE ARE THE MULTI-DAY AND
MULTI-EVENT TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY 7 PM CDT (SEPTEMBER 12-14).

IOWA...

OAKLAND MILLS 3W 7.60
DONNELSON 7.07
MOUNT PLEASANT 7.04
BURLINGTON 6.5N 6.97
LONDON 1.5 SW 6.96
WAPELLO 6.71
KEOSAUQUA 6.06
FORT MADISON 5.54
LE CLAIRE 0.2 ESE 5.35
DAVENPORT 0.9 SSW 5.12
BEDFORD 1 NNW 5.11

...ILLINOIS...

PEOTONE 10.40
WHEATON 1.7N 9.36
ELBURN 0.4 NW 9.29

PARK RIDGE 9.15
ST CHARLES 9.03
SALT CREEK AT ROLLING MEADOWS 9.20
PARK FOREST 0.8 NNE 8.80
EVANSTON 1.4N 8.76
FERSON CREEK NEAR ST. CHARLES 8.74
ELK GROVE 8.74
BARTLETT 8.58
ST CHARLES 7NW 8.48
PAW PAW 8.38
DES PLAINES 0.5 NW 8.18
KEITHSBURG 7.98
BRADLEY 7.90
WEST CHICAGO 2.7N 7.89
MILL CREEK NEAR BATAVIA 7.72
KEWANEE 1E 7.59
CARBON HILL 3N 7.45
ROGERS PARK 7.37
CHICAGO O'HARE AIRPORT 7.25

...INDIANA...

PORTAGE 0.8 SW 11.46
SOUTH BEND 3.7 SE 10.94
CROWN POINT 3.1 WSW 10.83
VALPARAISO 1.3 SSW 9.78
HART DITCH AT DYER 8.33
LA PORTE 1.2 7.97
PORTER 0.8 E 7.84
SOUTH BEND 7.72
CHESTERTON 1.7 WSW 7.68
WESTVILLE 4.7 ESE 7.52
KINGSBURY 1N 6.59
VALPARAISO 5NNE 6.51
HART DITCH 5.87
WANATAH 5.18
SHOALS 4.99
LOWELL 4.48
GARY 3.64

...MICHIGAN...

SOUTH HAVEN 6.68
MARSHALL 6.32
BATTLE CREEK/W K KELLOGG AIRPORT 6.16
BLOOMINGDALE 5.92
BENTON HARBOR/SW MI RGNL APT 5.77
FARMINGTON HILLS 5.36
OKEMOS 5.22
KALAMAZOO INTL ARPT 4.57
JACKSON/REYNOLDS FIELD 4.47
BLOOMINGDALE 4.46
CLARKSTON 4.41
MARSHALL 4.25
BATTLE CREEK 4.17
TIPTON 2WNW 4.02
LUM 3.95

...OHIO..
MILL CREEK AT TYLERSVL RD FAIRFLD 7.08
NORWALK 2NW 4.51
LAGRANGE 1NE 4.39
WADSWORTH 1SW 3.79
ALLIANCE 3.64
MEDINA 2N 3.50
FOSTORIA (IFLOWS) 3.35
WEST BRANCH 3.17
FINDLAY AIRPORT 3.17
MEDINA 3.12
ELYRIA 4S 3.11
AKRON/FULTON INTL ARPT 2.97

...PENNSYLVANIA...
MURRYSVILLE 5.41
NEW KENSINGTON (IFLOWS) 4.17
ALLISON PARK 3ESE (IFLOWS) 3.79
WEST DEER PARK (IFLOWS) 3.56
ALLISON PARK 2NE (IFLOWS) 3.51
FERNWAY 2W 3.24
RACHELWOOD (IFLOWS) 3.11
NATRONA 3.11
ACMETONIA (LOCK 3) 2.92
SLIPPERY ROCK 1SSW 2.90
CONEMAUGH DAM 2.85
JEANNETTE 1NE (IFLOWS) 2.47

...WISCONSIN...

GENOA CITY 3.25
FRANKLINSVILLE 2.50
NWS SULLIVAN 2.37
HALES CORNERS 2.32
TWIN LAKES 2.18

...NEBRASKA...

FALLS CITY 2S 3.39
FALLS CITY 3.31
RULO 2W 3.00
SYRACUSE 2.92
SALEM 5SW 2.39
GRETNA 3NE 2.34
IRVINGTON 2.30
LINCOLN 3S 2.28
PAWNEE CITY 2.24
OMAHA - 125TH & FORT STS 2.14
PAPILLION 6NW 2.14
AUBURN 2.00


THE PRIMARY HEAVY RAINFALL IS MOVING ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF
IKE INTO CANADA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM HALF
TO ONE INCH ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER FROM NEW YORK TO MAINE.

A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF NEW YORK STATE...VERMONT....NEW
HAMPSHIRE...AND MAINE. WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...44.8 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE
79.1 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH WITH GUST TO 40
MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE...ENVIRONMENT CANADA...OR THE OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.

FORECAST POSITIONS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 44.4N 79.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 15/1200Z 48.0N 68.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 16/0000Z 51.3N 58.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
$$

[yzerfan]

And the CHC calls it a wrap as well.

WOCN31 CWHX 141800
Post-tropical storm ike information statement issued by the
Canadian hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 2.00 PM EDT
Sunday 14 September 2008.

This is the final statment planned from the chc on this system.

...Remnants of ike now transformed into strong post-tropical
Low..Forecast to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to eastern
Canada...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 2.00 PM EDT..Post-tropical storm ike was located near
Latitude 40.2 N and longitude 86.9 W..About 225 NM or 417 km
southwest of Windsor Ontario. Maximum sustained winds are estimated
At 40 knots..74 km/h..With some local gusts to 55 knots..100 km/h
Central pressure is 988 MB. Ike is moving northeast near 50 knots..
92 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
EDT MB kts kmh
Sep 14 2.00 PM 40.2N 86.9W 988 40 74 post-tropical
Sep 14 8.00 PM 43.9N 79.6W 990 35 65 post-tropical
Sep 15 2.00 AM 46.6N 73.4W 989 35 65 post-tropical
Sep 15 8.00 AM 49.4N 67.6W 985 40 74 post-tropical
Sep 15 2.00 PM 51.5N 62.1W 983 45 83 post-tropical
Sep 15 8.00 PM 53.6N 56.8W 982 45 83 post-tropical
Sep 16 2.00 AM 55.7N 52.3W 980 45 83 post-tropical
Sep 16 8.00 AM 57.7N 47.7W 978 45 83 post-tropical
Sep 16 2.00 PM 59.8N 43.6W 976 50 92 post-tropical
Sep 16 8.00 PM 62.1N 39.9W 975 55 102 post-tropical
Sep 17 2.00 AM 64.4N 36.2W 975 55 102 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary

Synoptic description:
The centre of the low associated with the ramnants of hurricane ike
are forecast to merge/evolve into a deep and elongated low pressure
system over Québec and Ontario tonight. The large weather system will
then slide north of New Brunswick and into southeast Labrador on
Monday.

Weather summary:
An elongated zone of heavy rainfall will occur along the northern
portion of the track of this this weather system (see centre track
At http://www.Ns.Ec.Gc.Ca/weather/hurricane/current6.Html. South
Of the track warm and gusty south to southwest winds will occur. Also
some gusty west to northwest winds will occur just behind the passage
of the centre of the low. Rainfall amounts of 40 to 80 mm are
forecast along the axis of heaviest rainfall extending from Lake
Huron clear on through to southern Labrador. There is a potential for
local amounts to reach 100 mm in Ontario/Québec. General wind gusts
to 60 km/h are expected with some localities possibly experiencing
80 km/h gusts from Ontario to Newfoundland.

Warning summary:
Rainfall warnings are in effect or will soon be in effect for many
Areas north of the storm track..See local weather forecasts for
Details. Additionally..Some wind warnings may be required for certain
areas where southerly winds are enhanced by terrain or exposure.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Strong to gale force winds near and south of the strom track are
Expected from Lake Erie..Up the St Lawrence river and across to
northern Newfoundland waters including most of the Maritimes
Marine district. Some gale warnings have been posted..See local
forecasts for details. Seas are forecast to build to near 5 metres
In the northeast gulf of st. Lawrence.

5. Technical discussion

A. Analysis
Satellite and radar have shown a rapid case of extratropical
transition over the central U.S. with most of the heaviest rain now
Skewed to the northwest of the remnant low..Over southern Lake
Michigan and Lake Huron.

B. Prognostic
Primary point to make here is that we have a post-tropical storm
With some enhanced convection due to its tropical history. The models
Have been intializing the low too weak by 5 to 8 MB..But are coming
in line with reality. All numerical guidance predicts a prominant
frontal trough evolution over eastern Canada. All regional weather
centres are now handling the system as a strong extratropical low
And frontal trough.

C. Public weather
Described above.

D. Marine weather
Although there are varying takes on numerical solutions for this
System..The weather/warning summary above reflects the concensus of
model solutions and meteorological reasoning.

This is the final planned message on post-tropical storm ike from the
canadian hurricane centre.

End fogarty





WOCN31 CWHX 141800
POST-TROPICAL STORM IKE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.00 PM EDT
SUNDAY 14 SEPTEMBER 2008.

THIS IS THE FINAL STATMENT PLANNED FROM THE CHC ON THIS SYSTEM.

...REMNANTS OF IKE NOW TRANSFORMED INTO STRONG POST-TROPICAL
LOW..FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO EASTERN
CANADA...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 2.00 PM EDT..POST-TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 40.2 N AND LONGITUDE 86.9 W..ABOUT 225 NM OR 417 KM
SOUTHWEST OF WINDSOR ONTARIO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 40 KNOTS..74 KM/H..WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS..100 KM/H
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. IKE IS MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 50 KNOTS..
92 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
EDT MB KTS KMH
SEP 14 2.00 PM 40.2N 86.9W 988 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 14 8.00 PM 43.9N 79.6W 990 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 15 2.00 AM 46.6N 73.4W 989 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 15 8.00 AM 49.4N 67.6W 985 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 15 2.00 PM 51.5N 62.1W 983 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 15 8.00 PM 53.6N 56.8W 982 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 16 2.00 AM 55.7N 52.3W 980 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 16 8.00 AM 57.7N 47.7W 978 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 16 2.00 PM 59.8N 43.6W 976 50 92 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 16 8.00 PM 62.1N 39.9W 975 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 17 2.00 AM 64.4N 36.2W 975 55 102 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

SYNOPTIC DESCRIPTION:
THE CENTRE OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE
ARE FORECAST TO MERGE/EVOLVE INTO A DEEP AND ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER QUEBEC AND ONTARIO TONIGHT. THE LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
THEN SLIDE NORTH OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND INTO SOUTHEAST LABRADOR ON
MONDAY.

WEATHER SUMMARY:
AN ELONGATED ZONE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TRACK OF THIS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM (SEE CENTRE TRACK
AT HTTP://WWW.NS.EC.GC.CA/WEATHER/HURRICANE/CURRENT6.HTML. SOUTH
OF THE TRACK WARM AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR. ALSO
SOME GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR JUST BEHIND THE PASSAGE
OF THE CENTRE OF THE LOW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 40 TO 80 MM ARE
FORECAST ALONG THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM LAKE
HURON CLEAR ON THROUGH TO SOUTHERN LABRADOR. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
LOCAL AMOUNTS TO REACH 100 MM IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. GENERAL WIND GUSTS
TO 60 KM/H ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCALITIES POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING
80 KM/H GUSTS FROM ONTARIO TO NEWFOUNDLAND.

WARNING SUMMARY:
RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT OR WILL SOON BE IN EFFECT FOR MANY
AREAS NORTH OF THE STORM TRACK..SEE LOCAL WEATHER FORECASTS FOR
DETAILS. ADDITIONALLY..SOME WIND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR CERTAIN
AREAS WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ENHANCED BY TERRAIN OR EXPOSURE.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STROM TRACK ARE
EXPECTED FROM LAKE ERIE..UP THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER AND ACROSS TO
NORTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS INCLUDING MOST OF THE MARITIMES
MARINE DISTRICT. SOME GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED..SEE LOCAL
FORECASTS FOR DETAILS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO NEAR 5 METRES
IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
SATELLITE AND RADAR HAVE SHOWN A RAPID CASE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH MOST OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN NOW
SKEWED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REMNANT LOW..OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON.

B. PROGNOSTIC
PRIMARY POINT TO MAKE HERE IS THAT WE HAVE A POST-TROPICAL STORM
WITH SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION DUE TO ITS TROPICAL HISTORY. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN INTIALIZING THE LOW TOO WEAK BY 5 TO 8 MB..BUT ARE COMING
IN LINE WITH REALITY. ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE PREDICTS A PROMINANT
FRONTAL TROUGH EVOLUTION OVER EASTERN CANADA. ALL REGIONAL WEATHER
CENTRES ARE NOW HANDLING THE SYSTEM AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW
AND FRONTAL TROUGH.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
DESCRIBED ABOVE.

D. MARINE WEATHER
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE VARYING TAKES ON NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS
SYSTEM..THE WEATHER/WARNING SUMMARY ABOVE REFLECTS THE CONCENSUS OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND METEOROLOGICAL REASONING.

THIS IS THE FINAL PLANNED MESSAGE ON POST-TROPICAL STORM IKE FROM THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE.

END FOGARTY