ATL IKE: HPC Advisories

[cycloneye]

WTNT44 KNHC 032346
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY OF IKE. SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND HAS
DEVELOPED AN EYE THAT IS SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.
SPECIAL CLASSIFICATION PERFORMED BY TAFB AND SAB BOTH YIELD
T-NUMBERS OF 5.5. IN FACT...THE DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES
WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND RAW ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE BEEN
RUNNING BETWEEN ABOUT 6.0-6.5 DURING THE LAST 2-3 HOURS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE INCREASED TO 100 KT...MAKING IKE A
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BUT AS WITH ALL INTENSE HURRICANES...SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST...AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WERE REQUIRED TO THE WIND RADII.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0000Z 21.7N 53.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 22.6N 55.1W 110 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 23.8N 57.9W 115 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 24.3N 60.4W 115 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 23.8N 63.1W 110 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 22.5N 68.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 07/1800Z 22.5N 72.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 08/1800Z 23.5N 76.0W 115 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Brent]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0300 UTC THU SEP 04 2008

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 54.1W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 100SE 75SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 75SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 54.1W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 53.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.1N 56.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.0N 58.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.3N 61.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.8N 63.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 68.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 22.5N 72.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 24.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 54.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...IKE BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.1 WEST OR ABOUT 610 MILES...
980 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...TAKING IKE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY
IKE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...22.1 N...54.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

WTNT44 KNHC 040257
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

IKE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS EVENING. AN EYE BECAME APPARENT IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHORTLY AFTER 2100 UTC. SINCE THAT
TIME THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT WITH A RING OF VERY COLD
CLOUDS TOPS SURROUNDING IT. THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS WERE
T6.0 AND RAW ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE AVERAGED T6.2 SINCE
2045 UTC. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 115 KT...MAKING IKE A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THIS
WILL LARGELY BE CONTROLLED BY EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. HOWEVER
BOTH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT HOW AN INTENSE HURRICANE LIKE IKE WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
SHEAR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SOME WEAKENING BETWEEN
24-72 HOURS DUE TO THE SHEAR...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS INDICATED BY THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR WILL
DECREASE SO RE-STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED AT THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/15. THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES
ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE
MODELS UNANIMOUSLY RESPOND BY TURNING IKE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE
LINGERING QUESTION THAT REMAINS AT THE LONGER RANGE IS WHEN IKE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE
MODEL SPREAD REMAINS QUITE LARGE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE GFDL IS ON
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A TRACK NEAR HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA...WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW A POSITION TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS BETWEEN
THESE POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
HWRF...THE 12Z ECMWF...AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 22.1N 54.1W 115 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 23.1N 56.2W 115 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 24.0N 58.7W 105 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 24.3N 61.0W 105 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 23.8N 63.6W 100 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 22.5N 68.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 22.5N 72.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 09/0000Z 24.0N 75.5W 115 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Hockey007]

000
WTNT24 KNHC 040836
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0900 UTC THU SEP 04 2008

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 55.8W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 55.8W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 55.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.5N 57.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.0N 60.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.0N 62.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.4N 64.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.5N 69.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 23.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 25.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 55.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

000
WTNT34 KNHC 040837
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM AST THU SEP 04 2008

...IKE EVEN STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.8 WEST OR ABOUT 550 MILES...885
KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT LAND AREAS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS INTENSIFIED SOME MORE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 145 MPH...230
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT IKE WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORY FOUR OR CATEGORY THREE
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...22.7 N...55.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT44 KNHC 040838
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER...WITH
THE EYE EMBEDDED IN EVEN COLDER CLOUD TOPS THAN BEFORE. THE LATEST
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 6.5 WHICH SUPPORTS AN INTENSITY OF
125 KT...AND THIS IS USED FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY. IN SUCH
INTENSE HURRICANES...FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO INNER-CORE
EVOLUTIONS SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO
PREDICT. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS OVER 30 KT OF VERTICAL
SHEAR ON IKE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. THIS
LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCE SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING...
AND THAT IS WHAT IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST.
LATER ON IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS PROBABLE
AS THE SHEAR WEAKENS AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE FAVORABLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE BUT
IT REFLECTS OUR LACK OF SKILL IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY IN 3-5 DAYS.

IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR AROUND 290/15. THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR FORECAST REASONING.
A DEEP-LAYER HIGH IS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
WOULD LIKELY CAUSE THE HEADING OF IKE TO BEND WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IT IS EXPECTED
THAT IKE WILL HAVE PASSED THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...AND TURN BACK
TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST. THE BIG QUESTIONS IS HOW THE
HURRICANE RESPONDS TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AROUND DAY 5. LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS
TRACK MODELS IN THIS TIME FRAME...WE SEE THAT THE ECMWF IS THE
WESTERNMOST AND THE GFS IS THE NORTHEASTERNMOST. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND LEANS TOWARD THE
ECMWF. THIS IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN 4- AND 5-DAY TRACK FORECASTS...IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT LAND AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS HURRICANE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0900Z 22.7N 55.8W 125 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 23.5N 57.7W 125 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 24.0N 60.2W 115 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 24.0N 62.6W 110 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 23.4N 64.9W 110 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 22.5N 69.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 23.0N 73.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 09/0600Z 25.0N 76.5W 115 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1500 UTC THU SEP 04 2008

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 57.0W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 55SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 57.0W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 56.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.8N 58.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.0N 61.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.6N 63.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.0N 66.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 23.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 25.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 57.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST THU SEP 04 2008

...IKE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...A LITTLE WEAKER...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST OR ABOUT 525 MILES...
845 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT LAND AREAS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY IKE BUT INTERESTS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL
HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DATA FROM THE NASA QUIKSCAT SATELLITE INDICATE THAT HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...23.2 N...57.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

IKE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITH VERY COLD CLOUD
TEMPERATURES IN THE EYEWALL. HOWEVER THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW
ASYMMETRIC DUE TO SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE COME DOWN A
LITTLE BIT SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 120 KT. GLOBAL
MODELS UNANIMOUSLY INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER IKE AND KEEP STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...INNER-
CORE EYEWALL CYCLES COULD OCCUR...WHICH COULD WEAKEN IKE AS WELL.
IN THE LONGER-TERM...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND SOME
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK
OF IKE...THE HURRICANE COULD BE IMPACTED BY COOLER WATERS NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THAT HAVE BEEN STIRRED UP BY HANNA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT STILL SHOWS
IKE AS A POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AT ABOUT 290/14...A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. A BEND TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-
SOUTHWEST SEEMS PROBABLE AS A HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHWEST OF
IKE. THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR FIRST
PART OF THIS FORECAST WITH THE MODELS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DIVERGENT. THE MODELS HAVE SPLIT INTO TWO GENERAL CAMPS THIS
MORNING. THE UKMET/GFS/HWRF ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE
LATITUDE INITIALLY...THEN SHOW LESS OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS...
COMPRISED OF THE NOGAPS/ECMWF/GFDN/GFDL...SHOW A FASTER TURN TOWARD
THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AND SUGGEST MORE OF A THREAT TO THE
BAHAMAS. WITH CREDIBLE MODELS IN EACH GROUP...IT IS PROBABLY BEST
TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR A
BIAS-CORRECTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN 4- AND 5-DAY TRACK FORECASTS...IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT LAND AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS HURRICANE. HOWEVER INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD BE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF
IKE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 23.2N 57.0W 120 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 23.8N 58.9W 115 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 24.0N 61.3W 110 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 23.6N 63.8W 105 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 23.0N 66.7W 100 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 22.5N 71.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 23.5N 74.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 09/1200Z 25.5N 77.5W 105 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Brent]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
2100 UTC THU SEP 04 2008

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 58.2W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 55SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 58.2W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 57.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.9N 60.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.7N 62.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.2N 65.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.7N 67.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 22.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 24.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 25.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 58.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST THU SEP 04 2008

...IKE EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD OVERNIGHT....

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST OR ABOUT 505 MILES...815
KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...23.6 N...58.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF IKE DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. IKE IS MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE...THOUGH
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOME IN THE EYEWALL RECENTLY. IT IS
INTERESTING THAT WHILE IKE STARTED OUT AS A LARGE SYSTEM...THE
CLOUD CANOPY HAS NOTICEABLY SHRUNK TODAY WITH FEW OUTER BANDS.
THERE HAS BEEN ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO 115 KT. STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO THE
SHEAR BY WEAKENING THIS SYSTEM TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...THOUGH
THE GFDL/HWRF ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. IN A COUPLE DAYS...VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND...COMBINED WITH RATHER WARM
WATER WATERS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...SHOULD RESULT IN
RESTRENGTHENING. THE HURRICANE'S EXACT TRACK IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE
IT COULD BE IMPACTED BY COOLER WATERS UPWELLED BY HANNA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS A LITTLE
LOWER FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12...SLOWER THAN BEFORE AND A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT. RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS FORECAST
TO BUILD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...
CAUSING A WEST...AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION OF IKE BY LATE
TOMORROW. THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA WILL
BE CRITICAL TO WHEN AN EVENTUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL
OCCUR IN THE LONG-RANGE. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE WESTWARD
SHIFT IN ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH THE
GFDL/ECMWF EVEN TAKING THE SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CUBA. THE
OTHER MODELS ARE PRETTY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK NEAR OR THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED
WESTWARD AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE HWRF MODEL.

ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS
BECAUSE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THOSE TIMES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 23.6N 58.2W 115 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 23.9N 60.0W 105 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 23.7N 62.5W 95 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 23.2N 65.1W 95 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 22.7N 67.7W 100 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 22.5N 72.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 24.0N 76.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 25.5N 79.0W 110 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Brent]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0300 UTC FRI SEP 05 2008

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 59.5W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 59.5W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 58.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 23.6N 61.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.4N 64.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.9N 66.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 69.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 24.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 26.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 59.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST THU SEP 04 2008

...IKE TURNS WESTWARD...REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES...
760 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 755 MILES
...1215 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE
HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...23.6 N...59.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

IKE REMAINS A SMALL...BUT IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE... BUT THERE IS
SOME EVIDENCE OF THE ANTICIPATED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AS THE
OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE HURRICANE. DESPITE THE EVIDENCE OF SHEAR....THE EYE HAS
CLEARED AND REMAINS SURROUNDED BY -70 DEGREES CELSIUS CLOUD TOPS.
BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 115 KT. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS
PREDICTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH IS
ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST...
WHICH IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IS AGAIN BETWEEN
THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE THAT CALLS FOR MORE WEAKENING AND THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN AN INTENSE HURRICANE. IN ABOUT 2
DAYS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IKE TO
RE-STRENGTHEN.

IT APPEARS THAT IKE HAS TURNED WESTWARD THIS EVENING OR 275/12...
HOWEVER A SHORTER TERM MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY DUE WESTWARD. IKE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS...TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE. THEREAFTER...IKE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE TURN TAKE PLACE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN TWO DISTINCT BRANCHES...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE
TURN OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS....WHILE THE HWRF...GFDL...AND
ECMWF TAKE IKE OVER CUBA OR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UNTIL IT
BECOME CLEAR AS TO WHICH ONE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL PREVAIL...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THEM...CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

AS A REMINDER...4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO POTENTIALLY
LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 23.6N 59.5W 115 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 23.6N 61.5W 105 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 23.4N 64.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 22.9N 66.6W 95 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 22.5N 69.2W 100 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 22.5N 73.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 09/0000Z 24.0N 77.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 10/0000Z 26.0N 80.0W 110 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[jlauderdal]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 050854
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM AST FRI SEP 05 2008

...MAJOR HURRICANE IKE HEADED WESTWARD...

INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES...740
KM...NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 660 MILES...1065 KM...
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A SLIGHT TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TONIGHT OR EARLY ON
SATURDAY...WITH A TURN BACK TO THE WEST EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...IKE COULD BE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT IKE IS STILL FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...23.7 N...61.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB



000
WTNT44 KNHC 050857
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

THE EYE OF IKE HAS LOST A LITTLE OF ITS DEFINITION...AND CLOUD TOPS
OF THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE COME
DOWN SLIGHTLY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 110 KT.
MICROWAVE IMAGERY JUST RECEIVED FROM THE AMSR-E DOES NOT REVEAL ANY
SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE...NOR DOES IT
DEPICT CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...SO RAPID WEAKENING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ABOUT TO OCCUR. THAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE
NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL...AND GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO LESSEN BEYOND 24 HOURS...AS IKE
REMAINS OVER WATERS NEAR 29 CELSIUS...SO RESTRENGTHENING IS THEN
FORECAST. THE HWRF FORECASTS IKE TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT DAYS
3-5...BUT THE GFDL DOES NOT SINCE ITS TRACK GOES OVER CUBA.
MEANWHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM FORECAST A WEAKER HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH
THE LGEM PREDICTION APPEARS MORE REALISTIC SINCE IT DOES A BETTER
JOB OF TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EVENTUAL LESSENING OF THE SHEAR.
SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS OVER WATER THROUGH 96
HOURS...A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND LGEM SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE...AND
IKE IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LONGER RANGES. THE ONLY
REASON FOR THE WEAKENING AT THE END IS THAT THE FIVE-DAY POINT IS
OVER LAND...WHICH IS NOT A CERTAINTY.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE HAS SETTLED IN DIRECTLY NORTH OF IKE...AS THE
HIGH-LATITUDE TROUGH DEPARTS ATLANTIC CANADA...AND THE HURRICANE IS
NOW HEADED DUE WESTWARD OR 270/13. NEXT TO DEPART THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SCENE WILL BE HANNA...AND ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS SAY THAT IN
ITS PLACE THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD TO FLORIDA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. A KEY UNKNOWN FOR THE 3-5 DAY FORECAST IS HOW
STRONG THAT RIDGE WILL BE AND HOW LONG IT WILL REMAIN INTACT. IN
GENERAL DURING THE LAST DAY OR TWO THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARD THE RIDGE STAYING IN PLACE LONGER...RESULTING IN TRACKS
MAINTAINING THE GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION LONGER AND DELAYING ANY
POTENTIAL TURN TO THE NORTH. THAT TREND HAS CONTINUED SOMEWHAT ON
THIS CYCLE...BUT THE CONSENSUS HAS ONLY SHIFTED WEST SLIGHTLY AT
DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS...IS JUST NUDGED TOWARD THE
CONSENSUS BEYOND THAT TIME...AND GIVES THE MOST WEIGHT TO THE GFS
AND HWRF. IT CANNOT BE SAID ENOUGH THAT FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS
CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE
MODEL SPREAD IS STILL NOTABLE BEYOND 72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 23.7N 61.0W 110 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 23.7N 63.0W 105 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 23.3N 65.6W 95 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 22.8N 68.1W 100 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 22.5N 70.6W 105 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 23.0N 75.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 09/0600Z 24.0N 78.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 10/0600Z 26.0N 81.0W 95 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1500 UTC FRI SEP 05 2008

INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE. A
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 62.7W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 62.7W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 62.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.9N 64.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 67.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.2N 69.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.2N 72.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 24.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.5N 82.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 62.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 05 2008

...IKE MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST...

INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE. A
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST OR ABOUT 425 MILES...
685 KM...NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 550 MILES...885 KM
...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TODAY AND TOMORROW...
WITH A TURN BACK TO THE WEST EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...
IKE COULD BE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT IKE
IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...23.2 N...62.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

NORTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO A TAKE A TOLL ON IKE. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS CLEAR AND THAT MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION...A RECENT
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL IS OPEN ON THE NORTH
SIDE. USING A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 105 KT...AND
THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON TO OBTAIN
A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND WIND RADII. ALMOST
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DECREASING SHEAR OVER IKE IN ABOUT A
DAY DUE TO A WEAKENING OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY UPPER WINDS. EXCEPT
FOR A SMALL PATCH OF SSTS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...WATERS ARE VERY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST PATH. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE DUE TO
THE SHEAR FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN SHOWS INTENSIFICATION AS
UPPER-WINDS SLACKEN...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL. IN
A COUPLE DAYS...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT...AND
CONDITIONS LOOK RATHER FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IN THE LONGER-RANGE AS THE HWRF AND
GFDL SHOW A MORE INTENSE HURRICANE. REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY HOW
STRONG IT IS...ALL SIGNS ARE THAT IKE WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
FOR DAYS TO COME.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH OF WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ABOUT
260/14. THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE WEDGING INTO
BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA. THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...STEERING THE HURRICANE MORE TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
WEST-NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHEN
THIS WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION COULD MATERIALIZE. GENERALLY THE MODELS
THAT DRIVE THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/HWRF/GFDL
MODELS...SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN INTACT ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY
SEND IKE TOWARD CUBA OR THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
UKMET/GFDN/NOGAPS...ON THE OTHER HAND...SUGGEST THE HURRICANE WILL
MOVE MORE THE WEST AND HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AROUND 80W. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS MOVING
WELL SOUTH OF THE LATTER CLUSTER OF MODELS ALREADY...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GUIDANCE AND SHIFTED
SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

IT CANNOT BE REPEATED ENOUGH THAT FOUR- AND FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS
CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE
MODEL SPREAD IS STILL NOTABLE BEYOND 72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 23.2N 62.7W 105 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 22.9N 64.7W 95 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 22.5N 67.4W 90 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 22.2N 69.9W 95 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 22.2N 72.5W 105 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 24.0N 80.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 10/1200Z 25.5N 82.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Brent]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
2100 UTC FRI SEP 05 2008

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA...
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 64.1W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT.......105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 64.1W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 63.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.6N 66.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.2N 68.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.1N 71.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 22.2N 73.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.0N 78.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 24.5N 81.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 25.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 64.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST FRI SEP 05 2008

...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IKE HEADING TOWARD THE BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA...
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST OR ABOUT 430 MILES...690
KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 460 MILES...
735 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...WITH A GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...IKE COULD BE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES...195 KM.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...22.9 N...64.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS PERFORMED THE FIRST
PENETRATIONS ON IKE AND HAS CONFIRMED THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 109 KT WERE RECORDED...ALONG WITH SFMR
WINDS OF 94 KT...PLUS A DROPSONDE SUGGESTED WINDS OF AT LEAST 95
KT. A CONSENSUS OF ALL DATA SOURCES SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF
AROUND 100 KT...SO THIS VALUE WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. SOME
WEAKENING COULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY
LATE TOMORROW...AND SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING...PERHAPS
RAPID...BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH
LGEM MODEL EARLY ON...AND IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE GFDL/HWRF
THEREAFTER. A BIG UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS IKE'S POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH CUBA OR FLORIDA...WHICH COULD
WEAKEN THE HURRICANE MORE THAN SHOWN BELOW.

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A MOTION OF ABOUT 255/13. A
GRADUAL BEND BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST IN A DAY OR
SO AS RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF IKE WEAKENS SOMEWHAT. ALL
MODELS SUGGEST SOME SORT OF WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA IN A
FEW DAYS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WEAKNESS MAY ALLOW A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TURN
OF THE HURRICANE. GENERALLY...THE MODELS THAT ARE SHOWING THE
NORTHERNMOST TRACKS...SUCH AS THE GFS/NOGAPS...ARE THE ONES
WEAKENING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH FASTER. THE MODELS WITH THE
SOUTHERNMOST TRACKS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFDL...SHOW A
STRONGER RIDGE. OVERALL...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH...AND I'M GOING TO CONTINUE TO LEAN THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION. IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...THE FORECAST COULD BE
SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OR WEST LATER TONIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT FOUR- AND FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS CAN
HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT
TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 22.9N 64.1W 100 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 66.2W 95 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 22.2N 68.9W 95 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 22.1N 71.3W 100 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 22.2N 73.7W 110 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 78.2W 115 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 24.5N 81.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 25.5N 83.0W 115 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 052359
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM AST FRI SEP 05 2008

...THE EYE OF IKE REAPPEARS...STILL HEADING TOWARD THE BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA...
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES...
510 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 420
MILES...675 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...WITH A GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS
THE BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES...195 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...22.8 N...64.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG/AVILA

[Brent]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0300 UTC SAT SEP 06 2008

AT 1100 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA ON
SATURDAY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA...
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 65.6W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT.......105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 120SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 65.6W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 64.8W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.3N 67.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.0N 70.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.9N 72.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.9N 75.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.9N 79.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 24.5N 82.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 26.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 65.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 05 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE BAHAMAS...

AT 1100 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA ON
SATURDAY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA...
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...
580 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
OR SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATE SATURDAY
OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS
THE BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES...195 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...22.6 N...65.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

THE EYE OF IKE BRIEFLY RE-APPEARED AROUND 0000 UTC. SINCE THAT
TIME AN INTERMITTENT WARM SPOT HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LATEST MICROWAVE
IMAGERY FROM JUST PRIOR TO 0000 UTC INDICATED THAT THE EYE HAD A
SMALL OPENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...OTHERWISE THE
INNER-CORE REMAINS WELL INTACT. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN T5.5 AND 6.0...AND THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 100 KT...OR AT THE LOWER END OF THOSE
ESTIMATES. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE IKE AROUND 0600 UTC...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF IKE'S STRENGTH.

IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 14 KT.
IKE IS BEING STEERED IN THAT DIRECTION DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA.
THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS HAPPENS...IKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
MORE WESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SOLUTION...AND HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED SOUTH AND WESTWARD.
IN FACT...MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE NOW TAKES HANNA EITHER OVER
OR ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WESTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IT IS ALSO A
LITTLE FASTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND SEVERAL OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE SOUTHWEST
OF THE 4 AND 5 DAY NHC POSITIONS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD SHIFT COULD BE REQUIRED.

THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY DISRUPTING THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO ABATE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SINCE
IKE...STILL APPEARS TO BE A VERY HEALTHY HURRICANE...LITTLE IF ANY
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT
AND THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE LAND
INTERACTION. WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK PREDICTION ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF CUBA...IT SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING DUE TO LAND.
HOWEVER...IKE COULD BE WEAKER THAN SHOWN BELOW IF THE CENTER
MOVES OVER CUBA...AND CONVERSELY COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER IF IT
REMAINS OVER WATER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 22.6N 65.6W 100 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 22.3N 67.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 22.0N 70.3W 100 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 21.9N 72.8W 105 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 21.9N 75.3W 115 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 22.9N 79.6W 110 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 24.5N 82.5W 110 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 26.0N 84.5W 115 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

[HurricaneBill]

IN FACT...MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE NOW TAKES HANNA EITHER OVER
OR ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA.

Oops.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 AM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA...

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
BORDER WITH HAITI.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA LATER
TODAY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST OR ABOUT 330 MILES...
530 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING BY TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY OR
EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES...195 KM.

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...22.5 N...66.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB

[Brent]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0900 UTC SAT SEP 06 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF
HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA LATER
TODAY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 67.1W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 120SE 90SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 67.1W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 66.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.1N 69.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.8N 71.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.6N 74.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.8N 76.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 80.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 24.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 26.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 67.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...MAJOR HURRICANE IKE STILL HEADING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA LATER
TODAY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.1 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES...425
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING BY SUNDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...22.4 N...67.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 061153
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 AM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...IKE CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA LATER
TODAY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...335
KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON SUNDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...22.0 N...67.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 061445
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...IKE WEAKENS A LITTLE...EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA INCLUDING THE
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...GRANMA...CAMAGUEY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF
HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...
240 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IKE
IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY...AND THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN
COAST OF EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH
DURING THIS PERIOD.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...21.9 N...68.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTNT44 KNHC 061446
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

IKE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND LATEST
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOW SUGGEST ABOUT 95 KT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATER
TODAY...AND IKE IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE COOLER WATERS
UPWELLED BY HANNA. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
SHORT-TERM AND IKE COULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY TOMORROW.
IKE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR VERY CUBA DURING THE 36-72 HR
TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING. THE DEGREE OF
WEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW CLOSE IKE TRACKS TO LAND. BY
DAY 4...IKE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE BACK OVER OPEN WATERS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OCEAN SHOULD BE PLENTY
WARM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR IKE TO RESTRENGTHEN AT
96 AND 120 HR. GIVEN THE EVOLVING ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND LAND
INTERACTIONS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE.

IKE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA AND THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 255/15. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING IKE TO MAKE A TURN
WESTWARD. IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH
OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE'S EVENTUAL
TRACK AT THE EXTENDED RANGES. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SPLIT INTO TWO
CAMPS AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE PASSING
SUFFICIENTLY FAR TO THE NORTH TO KEEP IKE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WHILE OTHER MODELS SHOW IKE TURNING NORTHWARD
INTO THE WEAKNESS. IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO COMMIT TO EITHER ONE OF
THESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS...AND THUS THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 21.9N 68.8W 95 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 21.4N 70.4W 95 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 21.2N 72.9W 100 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 21.2N 75.4W 105 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 21.5N 77.6W 95 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 81.5W 80 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 10/1200Z 24.5N 84.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 26.0N 86.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

131
WTNT34 KNHC 061748
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...IKE REGAINS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE STRENGTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA
INCLUDING THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS
TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...CAMAGUEY.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
215 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IKE
IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY...AND THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN
COAST OF EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THIS PERIOD.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...21.6 N...69.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

[Brent]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
2100 UTC SAT SEP 06 2008

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT
ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND HOLGUIN.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND CAMAGUEY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 69.7W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 120SE 90SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 69.7W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 69.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.2N 71.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 55SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.1N 74.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.2N 76.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.7N 78.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 25.0N 85.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 26.5N 87.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 69.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...IKE HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH 135 MPH
WINDS...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT
ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND HOLGUIN.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND CAMAGUEY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM
...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. IKE IS
FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...AND
THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IKE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS PERIOD.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 949 MB...28.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...21.4 N...69.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IKE
INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE HAS AGAIN INTENSIFIED. THE PLANE
REPORTED A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 118 KT AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 129
KT. ADDITIONALLY...CALCULATIONS FROM A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE
NORTHEAST EYEWALL SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 110 KT. BASED
ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT. WITH
THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER IKE NOW RELAXING AND THE WATERS ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK WARM...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL
IKE REACHES CUBA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. ONCE OVER LAND...WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE CYCLONE EMERGES BACK OVER WATER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...ONLY A
SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE
CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER AND LESS WEAKENING COULD OCCUR. SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE IKE DEPARTS CUBA SINCE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

IKE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF OF
255/13. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING IKE TO MAKE A TURN WESTWARD. IN 3
TO 4 DAYS...AS IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CREATE
A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE'S EVENTUAL TRACK AT
THE EXTENDED RANGES. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL SPLIT INTO TWO
CAMPS...WITH THE GFDL MODEL SHOWING IKE TURNING NORTHWARD INTO THE
WEAKNESS...WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE
BYPASSING IKE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. IT IS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO COMMIT TO EITHER
ONE OF THESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
SHIFT IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 21.4N 69.7W 115 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 21.2N 71.6W 120 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 21.1N 74.0W 125 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 21.2N 76.5W 120 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
48HR VT 08/1800Z 21.7N 78.7W 95 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
72HR VT 09/1800Z 23.0N 82.5W 80 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
96HR VT 10/1800Z 25.0N 85.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 26.5N 87.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN


FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN