EPAC KARINA: Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 4:38 pm

BEGIN
NHC
invest_ep982008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200809012117
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 98, 2008, DB, O, 2008090118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP982008
EP, 98, 2008090118, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1095W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

#2 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 4:44 pm

You mean 98E right?

#3 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 4:45 pm

RL3AO wrote:You mean 98E right?

Sorry, It's too much! :lol:

Not looking bad but conditions are not favorable for significant development.

#4 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 4:46 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SHOWING SIGN OF
ORGANIZATION AND IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

#5 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 5:58 pm

198
WHXX01 KMIA 012213
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2213 UTC MON SEP 1 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982008) 20080901 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080901 1800 080902 0600 080902 1800 080903 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 109.5W 18.9N 110.4W 19.6N 111.7W 20.1N 113.2W
BAMD 17.8N 109.5W 18.8N 111.9W 19.7N 114.4W 20.6N 117.1W
BAMM 17.8N 109.5W 19.0N 111.2W 20.1N 113.3W 20.9N 115.4W
LBAR 17.8N 109.5W 18.6N 111.7W 19.9N 114.2W 21.0N 116.7W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080903 1800 080904 1800 080905 1800 080906 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.7N 115.0W 21.5N 117.7W 21.4N 119.0W 20.4N 119.9W
BAMD 21.3N 119.6W 22.8N 122.9W 24.9N 122.6W 26.8N 120.3W
BAMM 21.6N 117.6W 22.7N 120.6W 23.6N 121.2W 24.0N 121.4W
LBAR 21.9N 118.9W 24.2N 120.5W 27.3N 117.9W 30.4N 112.6W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 109.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 17.3N LONM12 = 106.5W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 16.8N LONM24 = 103.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

#6 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 6:51 pm

568
ABPZ20 KNHC 012350
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

#7 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 6:54 pm

After what was probably the fastest start to a season since 1998, the EPac might be trying to wake up. There have been 4 or 5 invests in this area that looked good but fell apart before developing.

#8 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 8:01 pm

wyq614 · #9 Postby **wyq614** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 8:24 pm

Eye appeared??? Or it's an island??

#10 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 8:26 pm

wyq614 wrote:Eye appeared??? Or it's an island??

That's an island! :lol:

#11 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 8:41 pm

751
WHXX01 KMIA 020115
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0115 UTC TUE SEP 2 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982008) 20080902 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080902 0000 080902 1200 080903 0000 080903 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 109.4W 18.8N 110.5W 19.6N 111.8W 20.2N 113.4W
BAMD 17.8N 109.4W 18.8N 111.9W 19.9N 114.5W 20.9N 117.0W
BAMM 17.8N 109.4W 19.1N 111.1W 20.3N 113.1W 21.2N 115.1W
LBAR 17.8N 109.4W 18.6N 111.0W 20.0N 112.9W 21.3N 114.9W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 27KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080904 0000 080905 0000 080906 0000 080907 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.9N 114.9W 21.6N 117.4W 21.7N 119.2W 21.5N 121.4W
BAMD 21.9N 119.2W 23.6N 121.2W 25.2N 120.5W 26.1N 119.2W
BAMM 22.1N 117.0W 23.4N 119.2W 24.0N 120.0W 24.3N 121.2W
LBAR 23.1N 116.1W 25.4N 116.3W 27.8N 113.2W 29.9N 109.4W
SHIP 24KTS 15KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 24KTS 15KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 109.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 17.4N LONM12 = 108.2W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 16.8N LONM24 = 106.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Ships does not foresee much intensification.

#12 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:15 pm

Chacor · #13 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:26 pm

Looks really good. Looks like Socorro is getting pounded by heavy rain.

Chacor · #14 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Sep 02, 2008 10:14 am

NRL says 12E.

#15 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Sep 02, 2008 10:15 am

EP, 12, 2008090212, , BEST, 0, 192N, 1110W, 35, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 60, 0, 1007, 150, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, TWELVE, M,

Thats confliciting. It says 35 knots, but says Twelve instead of Karina.

Chacor · #16 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Sep 02, 2008 10:31 am

We'll find out soon enough when we get the advisory.

Chacor · #17 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Sep 02, 2008 10:43 am

WTPZ42 KNHC 021541
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM KARINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122008
900 AM PDT TUE SEP 02 2008

VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS
SUFFICIENTLY CONNECTED TO THE DEEP CONVECTION TO CONSIDER THE
SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM
TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0 AT 14Z. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN
THE SHEAR PATTERN INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THE FACT THAT NOT LONG
AGO THE CENTER WAS FARTHER FROM THE CONVECTION...I'M GOING TO
INITIATE ADVISORIES A LITTLE BELOW THE CLASSIFICATIONS. ALTHOUGH
KARINA COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER...EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...LIMITING INTENSIFICATION. BY 36
HOURS OR SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM AND
IS EXPECTED TO DECAY OVER COOLER WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8...ALTHOUGH WITH A SKETCHY
HISTORY ON THE CENTER THIS ESTIMATE IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE
SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. THE GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY SHOW A VERY SLOW MOTION...AND SHOULD THE SYSTEM SUCCUMB
TO THE SHEAR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BELOW WILL PROBABLY BE TOO FAST.
I AM ASSUMING THE SYSTEM STAYS INTACT FOR AT LEAST A DAY OR TWO SO I
HAVE TRIED TO BLEND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE MEDIUM
AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1600Z 19.3N 111.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 19.9N 112.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 20.3N 113.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 20.5N 114.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 20.5N 115.5W 25 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 20.5N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 06/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

#18 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Sep 02, 2008 10:44 am

Hi and bye. Likely another Douglas.

#19 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Sep 02, 2008 10:44 am

Someone must have told it the Atlantic had caught up.

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 02, 2008 10:46 am

Sandy,how is the scoreboard for the Atlantic and EPAC?

EPAC KARINA: Tropical Depression - Discussion

EPAC KARINA: Tropical Depression - Discussion

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