ATL HANNA: Recon Discussion

[CrazyC83]

With no recon discussion thread and a request for one, here it is.

[CrazyC83]

I think the intensity will be virtually unchanged, maybe slightly weaker.

[pojo]

now its official....


when we sit for a while like they did... we are sitting on the taxiway waiting our IFR release from approach control (ie. Gulfport, Miami)... tower will not allow us to sit on the runway for 5 minutes.

[RL3AO]

Pojo, do you guys have planes in St. Croix already for Ike, or will they be flying out there in a few days?

[cycloneye]

Pojo, do you guys have planes in St. Croix already for Ike, or will they be flying out there in a few days?

POSSIBLY START 12-HRLY FIXES ON
TROPICAL STORM IKE AT 05/1800Z NEAR 21.5N 69.0W.

[pojo]

Pojo, do you guys have planes in St. Croix already for Ike, or will they be flying out there in a few days?

nope we are all in Homestead.... I haven't heard about a STX deployment yet.

[Steve H.]

I really wait the flight was for late this afternoon, as I expect the Gus outflow/North Atlantic trough to move out. You will find a much weaker Hanna right now, but tonight into tomorrow she should start cranking again.

[pojo]

I really wait the flight was for late this afternoon, as I expect the Gus outflow/North Atlantic trough to move out. You will find a much weaker Hanna right now, but tonight into tomorrow she should start cranking again.

we are on 6hrlys right now

[bvigal]

Really glad they are checking this now. I'm afraid people are dying in Haiti as we speak. If there is even the smallest chance this center is further south than it looks on satellite, or reforming S, recon will be very helpful.

[Steve H.]

Thanks Pojo. She is ramping up with convection now, so maybe you'll find a cane. If not today, definitely tonight or tomorrow.

[meteorologyman]

Where do they get all the number datas from is it on website or something

[RL3AO]

Where do they get all the number datas from is it on website or something

Raw data: http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur/urnt15.knhc..txt
Decoded data: http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15/KNHC/
S2K thread on how to decode: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=85603

[bvigal]

Just back on from 2nd power outage today! What have they found?

[CrazyC83]

Haven't been in the strongest part yet. Pressure 984 based on extrapolation.

[CrazyC83]

SFMR found 71 kt, but no FL winds above 57 kt yet in the E side. I'm not sure if this is a storm that is stronger than the flight-level winds indicate, or if the SFMR should be discarded.

[bvigal]

I guess discarded. 2pm advisory has kept it a TS for now.
02/1745 UTC 20.8N 73.2W T3.5/4.5 HANNA

[CrazyC83]

Definitely should be discarded since the SFMR estimated surface winds at 111 kt in the last pass (obviously very wrong).

[El Nino]

984mb supports a good cat1, but apparently windspeed doesn't follow ...

[CrazyC83]

984mb supports a good cat1, but apparently windspeed doesn't follow ...

Winds only support a 50 kt intensity so far.

[deltadog03]

One thing I have noticed is that the LLC and MLC must be stacked...RECON would usually say otherwise in the VDM...That bodes very good for strengthening when shear abates.