EPAC LOWELL: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float6.html

[cycloneye]

237
WHXX01 KMIA 060054
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0054 UTC SAT SEP 6 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP992008) 20080906 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080906 0000 080906 1200 080907 0000 080907 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 103.7W 15.0N 104.2W 16.3N 105.4W 17.8N 107.2W
BAMD 14.0N 103.7W 14.4N 105.1W 15.5N 107.0W 16.5N 109.3W
BAMM 14.0N 103.7W 14.7N 105.0W 15.8N 106.9W 16.9N 109.0W
LBAR 14.0N 103.7W 14.4N 104.9W 15.4N 106.6W 16.7N 108.6W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080908 0000 080909 0000 080910 0000 080911 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.3N 109.4W 21.6N 114.4W 23.4N 119.0W 25.0N 121.8W
BAMD 17.6N 112.0W 19.5N 117.5W 21.3N 121.5W 24.6N 122.4W
BAMM 17.9N 111.6W 19.6N 116.8W 21.3N 121.1W 23.1N 123.9W
LBAR 17.9N 111.1W 21.0N 115.7W 25.7N 117.4W 33.1N 112.1W
SHIP 45KTS 49KTS 47KTS 37KTS
DSHP 45KTS 49KTS 47KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 103.7W DIRCUR = 240DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 103.0W DIRM12 = 243DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 14.8N LONM24 = 102.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 360NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 5 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS A FEW HUNDRED
MILES OFF THE COAST BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND MANZANILLO MEXICO. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST NEAR 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

[HURAKAN]

That's a large area!!!

[Cyclenall]

That's a large area!!!

That is whacked. Is all of that really part of the low?

[HURAKAN]

140
ABPZ20 KNHC 061154
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI SEP 5 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
NEAR 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[HURAKAN]

748
ABPZ20 KNHC 061748
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 5 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[HURAKAN]

[RattleMan]

Red alert:

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 070010
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 5 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING. ADVISORIES ON THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE INITIATED AT 8 PM PDT LATER THIS EVENING. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODS DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 070027
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0027 UTC SUN SEP 7 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE THIRTEEN (EP132008) 20080907 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080907 0000 080907 1200 080908 0000 080908 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.5N 105.9W 16.8N 107.2W 18.0N 108.8W 19.0N 110.6W
BAMD 15.5N 105.9W 16.4N 107.9W 17.4N 110.3W 18.1N 112.7W
BAMM 15.5N 105.9W 16.7N 107.5W 17.7N 109.5W 18.5N 111.7W
LBAR 15.5N 105.9W 16.4N 107.5W 17.7N 109.6W 18.8N 111.6W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 51KTS 55KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 51KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080909 0000 080910 0000 080911 0000 080912 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.8N 112.5W 21.0N 115.5W 21.9N 117.1W 21.7N 117.5W
BAMD 18.6N 115.0W 19.5N 118.6W 21.0N 119.6W 22.8N 118.6W
BAMM 19.2N 113.8W 20.3N 117.0W 21.8N 118.1W 23.5N 117.4W
LBAR 20.2N 113.4W 23.6N 115.7W 30.4N 113.0W 39.7N 103.7W
SHIP 57KTS 51KTS 39KTS 27KTS
DSHP 57KTS 51KTS 39KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.5N LONCUR = 105.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 14.9N LONM12 = 104.8W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 103.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Chacor]

TS Lowell.

[Chacor]

WTPZ33 KNHC 070224
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 06 2008

...TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORMS OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL STORM
LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST
OR ABOUT 265 MILES...430 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12
MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
LOWELL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOWELL
GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...15.7 N...106.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Chacor]

Quick note that while we all track Ike, there will not be an 'official' forecast challenge for Lowell. You're free to create one but the scores won't count in the leaderboard. Ike takes priority over the game, imo.

[Cyclenall]

Quick note that while we all track Ike, there will not be an 'official' forecast challenge for Lowell. You're free to create one but the scores won't count in the leaderboard. Ike takes priority over the game, imo.

It doesn't take long to make the topic.

[bob rulz]

What is it with EPac storms this year? Are the steering currents just unfavorable? Have they been forming too far north? Or is the limit of warm waters further south than usual? We've had a lot of storms there but none of them have really been able to get going.

[Chacor]

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

However,the Atlantic is way ahead in the ACE acumulative numbers.

For the members that want to follow the ACE updates go to Talking Tropics forum at the thread for that.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ43 KNHC 080228
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 07 2008

ALTHOUGH LOWELL HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...DEEP
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND NOW COMPLETELY COVERS THE
PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE
AT 00Z FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WAS T3.0/45 KT. HOWEVER...DURING THE
PAST 2 HOURS SINCE THAT SATELLITE FIX...DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED TO T3.5/55 KT AS THE CENTER HAS BECOME EMBEDDED FARTHER
INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. THEREFORE
...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10. LOWELL HAS MADE A SLIGHT
WESTWARD JOG PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER...WHICH HAS VERTICALLY INCREASED THE
VORTEX UP TO THE 200 MB LEVEL WHERE MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS EXIST.
OTHER THAN THIS SHORT TERM WOBBLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LOWELL BY 48-72 HOURS. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING FLOW AND PERMIT LOWELL TO SLOWLY
RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT...OR WEST...OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS LOWELL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO
LESS THAN 10 KT BY 36 HOURS...WHILE REMAINING OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST
27C. THE MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE
MOIST WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF MORE THAN 70 PERCENT. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD TYPICALLY INDICATE THAT SOME DEGREE OF
STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL STEADILY
DECREASES LOWELL'S INTENSITY AND MAKES THE CYCLONE A DEPRESSION BY
96 HOURS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE...THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AND
IS SIMILAR TO THE HWRF MODEL...WHICH MAKES LOWELL A CATEGORY 1
HURRICANE BY 24 HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING IT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 18.2N 109.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 18.9N 110.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 19.9N 112.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 09/1200Z 20.7N 113.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 21.6N 113.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 22.8N 113.3W 55 KT
96HR VT 12/0000Z 24.0N 112.0W 50 KT...NEAR SOUTHWEST BAJA
120HR VT 13/0000Z 25.0N 110.5W 35 KT...OVR SRN GULF OF CALIF

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Chacor]

Looks like a Mexico threat in the long-term.