Not looking very healthy this morning.
EPAC LOWELL: Tropical Depression - Discussion
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cape_escape
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Re:
Chacor wrote:Looks like a Mexico threat in the long-term.
wow...Mexico seems to popular at the moment...seems like even Ike wants to go there!
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC LOWELL: Tropical Storm - Discussion
095
WTPZ43 KNHC 082039
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008
200 PM PDT MON SEP 08 2008
LOWELL CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE ABOUT 20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...WHICH IS CAUSING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO BE PARTLY EXPOSED
AT THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A PULSING AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
MASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT
FROM TAFB....WHILE A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THIS MORNING SHOWED ONE 45
KT WIND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT...AND RECENTLY
RECEIVED LOW-RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA SUGGESTS THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/10. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
EARLIER FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. LOWELL IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN
DEVELOPING IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SHOULD TURN LOWELL TOWARD THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST. WHILE THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS
MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST LOWELL WILL MOVE AFTER RECURVATURE.
THE HWRF...LBAR...AND BAMD MOVE THE STORM VERY RAPIDLY...WITH 120 HR
POSITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
GFS AND BAMS KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH 120 HR. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE BAMS AND
BAMD MODELS IS STILL STRIKING AND SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
LOWELL COULD SHEAR APART AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A
SLOW-MOTION COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...SHOWING LOWELL
SLOWLY RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND REACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA IN 72-96 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA
CONSENSUS MODEL AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
AS BEFORE...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENT SHEAR TO
DIMINISH IN ABOUT 24 HOUR. HOWEVER...LOWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TOWARD COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...AND
THIS REDUCES THE CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION WHEN THE SHEAR
DECREASES. AFTER RECURVATURE...LOWELL MAY FIND WARMER WATER...BUT
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A SLOW WEAKENING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING ...WITH THE
INTENSITIES HELD A LITTLE ABOVE ALL THE GUIDANCE. AN ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR LOWELL TO SHEAR APART AFTER 48 HR...WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO DISSIPATION BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/2100Z 19.8N 112.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 20.4N 112.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 21.2N 113.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 22.1N 113.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 23.1N 113.1W 35 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 24.5N 112.0W 35 KT...NEAR BAJA COAST
96HR VT 12/1800Z 25.5N 111.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 13/1800Z 26.5N 110.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTPZ43 KNHC 082039
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008
200 PM PDT MON SEP 08 2008
LOWELL CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE ABOUT 20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...WHICH IS CAUSING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO BE PARTLY EXPOSED
AT THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A PULSING AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
MASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT
FROM TAFB....WHILE A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THIS MORNING SHOWED ONE 45
KT WIND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT...AND RECENTLY
RECEIVED LOW-RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA SUGGESTS THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/10. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
EARLIER FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. LOWELL IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN
DEVELOPING IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SHOULD TURN LOWELL TOWARD THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST. WHILE THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS
MAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST LOWELL WILL MOVE AFTER RECURVATURE.
THE HWRF...LBAR...AND BAMD MOVE THE STORM VERY RAPIDLY...WITH 120 HR
POSITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
GFS AND BAMS KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH 120 HR. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE BAMS AND
BAMD MODELS IS STILL STRIKING AND SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
LOWELL COULD SHEAR APART AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A
SLOW-MOTION COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...SHOWING LOWELL
SLOWLY RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND REACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA IN 72-96 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA
CONSENSUS MODEL AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
AS BEFORE...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENT SHEAR TO
DIMINISH IN ABOUT 24 HOUR. HOWEVER...LOWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TOWARD COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...AND
THIS REDUCES THE CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION WHEN THE SHEAR
DECREASES. AFTER RECURVATURE...LOWELL MAY FIND WARMER WATER...BUT
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A SLOW WEAKENING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING ...WITH THE
INTENSITIES HELD A LITTLE ABOVE ALL THE GUIDANCE. AN ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR LOWELL TO SHEAR APART AFTER 48 HR...WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO DISSIPATION BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/2100Z 19.8N 112.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 20.4N 112.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 21.2N 113.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 22.1N 113.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 23.1N 113.1W 35 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 24.5N 112.0W 35 KT...NEAR BAJA COAST
96HR VT 12/1800Z 25.5N 111.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 13/1800Z 26.5N 110.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC LOWELL: Tropical Storm - Discussion
WTPZ43 KNHC 090230
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008
800 PM PDT MON SEP 08 2008
THE OBLIGATORY EVENING CONVECTIVE BURST HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LIKE IT HAS THIS TIME THE PAST 2 DAYS...
EXCEPT THIS EVENING A CURVED BAND HAS FORMED IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THIS CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS YIELDED AN OFFICIAL DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...WHEREAS A
SHEAR PATTERN YIELDS A DATA T-NUMBER OF T3.5/55 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO T-NUMBER ESTIMATES.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/07. IT APPEARS THAT THE FORWARD
SPEED OF LOWELL HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH WHAT THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING
THE PAST 2 DAYS. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. CALIFORNIA COAST...AND THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
LOWELL BY 24-36 HOURS. A WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
RIDGE AXIS ALLOWING LOWELL TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE AND
EVENTUALLY RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
ON THIS TRACK SCENARIO EVOLVING THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT THEN DIVERGE
IN BOTH TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED AFTER THAT. IF LOWELL IS AS WEAK AS
FORECAST BY THE TIME IT REACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA...THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY GET STRIPPED AWAY BY THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN AND BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE PACIFIC. AS A MINIMUM...
HOWEVER...THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FROM RACING NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA LIKE THE HWRF MODEL IS PREDICTING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS.
SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO EVENINGS...A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST WITH
CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -85C HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. LAST NIGHT'S INTENSIFICATION PROCESS WAS
DISRUPTED BY ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR CREATED BY EASTERLY OUTFLOW
EMANATING FROM A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPED
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST OF LOWELL. THE FEATURE
THAT TRIGGERED THAT MCS HAS SINCE MOVED NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DESPITE
WEAKENING SHEAR CONDITIONS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS...ALONG WITH
VERY MOIST MID-TROPOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...THE STATISTICAL SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL AND THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE ALL PREDICTING
LOWELL WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND...BUT
REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH DISSIPATES
LOWELL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0300Z 20.2N 112.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 20.9N 113.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 21.7N 113.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 22.7N 113.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 23.7N 112.7W 35 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 24.9N 111.8W 35 KT...INLAND OVER SRN BAJA
96HR VT 13/0000Z 26.0N 111.0W 30 KT...OVER GULF OF CALIF
120HR VT 14/0000Z 27.3N 109.9W 30 KT...INLAND OVER MEXICO
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008
800 PM PDT MON SEP 08 2008
THE OBLIGATORY EVENING CONVECTIVE BURST HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LIKE IT HAS THIS TIME THE PAST 2 DAYS...
EXCEPT THIS EVENING A CURVED BAND HAS FORMED IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THIS CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS YIELDED AN OFFICIAL DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...WHEREAS A
SHEAR PATTERN YIELDS A DATA T-NUMBER OF T3.5/55 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO T-NUMBER ESTIMATES.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/07. IT APPEARS THAT THE FORWARD
SPEED OF LOWELL HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH WHAT THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING
THE PAST 2 DAYS. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. CALIFORNIA COAST...AND THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
LOWELL BY 24-36 HOURS. A WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
RIDGE AXIS ALLOWING LOWELL TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE AND
EVENTUALLY RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
ON THIS TRACK SCENARIO EVOLVING THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT THEN DIVERGE
IN BOTH TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED AFTER THAT. IF LOWELL IS AS WEAK AS
FORECAST BY THE TIME IT REACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA...THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY GET STRIPPED AWAY BY THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN AND BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE PACIFIC. AS A MINIMUM...
HOWEVER...THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FROM RACING NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA LIKE THE HWRF MODEL IS PREDICTING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS.
SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO EVENINGS...A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST WITH
CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -85C HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. LAST NIGHT'S INTENSIFICATION PROCESS WAS
DISRUPTED BY ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR CREATED BY EASTERLY OUTFLOW
EMANATING FROM A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPED
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST OF LOWELL. THE FEATURE
THAT TRIGGERED THAT MCS HAS SINCE MOVED NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DESPITE
WEAKENING SHEAR CONDITIONS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS...ALONG WITH
VERY MOIST MID-TROPOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...THE STATISTICAL SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL AND THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE ALL PREDICTING
LOWELL WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND...BUT
REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH DISSIPATES
LOWELL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0300Z 20.2N 112.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 20.9N 113.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 21.7N 113.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 22.7N 113.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 23.7N 112.7W 35 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 24.9N 111.8W 35 KT...INLAND OVER SRN BAJA
96HR VT 13/0000Z 26.0N 111.0W 30 KT...OVER GULF OF CALIF
120HR VT 14/0000Z 27.3N 109.9W 30 KT...INLAND OVER MEXICO
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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latemodel25
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC LOWELL: Tropical Storm - Discussion
WTPZ43 KNHC 090858
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 09 2008
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LOWELL REMAINS THAT OF A SHEARED TROPICAL
CYCLONE. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES BETWEEN 0100 AND 0600 UTC
CONFIRMS THAT THE CENTER OF LOWELL IS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE CONVECTION. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0120 UTC REVEALED A
COUPLE OF BELIEVABLE 40-45 KT WIND VECTORS. BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT
DATA AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 45 KT. THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS SINCE THE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS DEGRADED
SINCE THE CLASSIFICATIONS WERE PERFORMED.
THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LOWELL CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD...BUT AT A LITTLE SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO TURN LOWELL TO THE
NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW DEEP OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE LOWELL WILL REMAIN
DURING THIS TIME. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL KEEP LOWELL A DEEP
ENOUGH SYSTEM THAT IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT LOWELL WILL WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY...AND NOT FEEL AS MUCH
INFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGH. FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SOMEWHAT BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUALLY WEAKENING OF LOWELL
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH PREDICTS THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN AS
THE RESULT OF CONTINUED SHEAR...A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS ALONG THE PATH OF THE STORM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0900Z 20.7N 112.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 21.4N 113.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 22.4N 113.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 23.3N 112.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 24.4N 112.1W 35 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 26.5N 111.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 28.5N 110.0W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 09 2008
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LOWELL REMAINS THAT OF A SHEARED TROPICAL
CYCLONE. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES BETWEEN 0100 AND 0600 UTC
CONFIRMS THAT THE CENTER OF LOWELL IS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE CONVECTION. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0120 UTC REVEALED A
COUPLE OF BELIEVABLE 40-45 KT WIND VECTORS. BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT
DATA AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 45 KT. THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS SINCE THE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS DEGRADED
SINCE THE CLASSIFICATIONS WERE PERFORMED.
THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LOWELL CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD...BUT AT A LITTLE SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO TURN LOWELL TO THE
NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW DEEP OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE LOWELL WILL REMAIN
DURING THIS TIME. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL KEEP LOWELL A DEEP
ENOUGH SYSTEM THAT IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT LOWELL WILL WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY...AND NOT FEEL AS MUCH
INFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGH. FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SOMEWHAT BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUALLY WEAKENING OF LOWELL
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH PREDICTS THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN AS
THE RESULT OF CONTINUED SHEAR...A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS ALONG THE PATH OF THE STORM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0900Z 20.7N 112.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 21.4N 113.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 22.4N 113.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 23.3N 112.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 24.4N 112.1W 35 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 26.5N 111.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 28.5N 110.0W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LOWELL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES...405 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 275 MILES...445 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO
SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
LOWELL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
LOWELL IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SINALOA AND SONORA STATES IN MAINLAND MEXICO.
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...20.9 N...113.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LOWELL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES...405 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 275 MILES...445 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO
SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
LOWELL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
LOWELL IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SINALOA AND SONORA STATES IN MAINLAND MEXICO.
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...20.9 N...113.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
848
WTPZ33 KNHC 101445
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008
800 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2008
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO
SAN LUCAS. THIS WATCH COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LOWELL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST OR ABOUT 145
MILES...235 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 175 MILES...280 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO
MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF LOWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY...THEN
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND LOWELL COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE FROM LOWELL
COULD SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE STATES OF SINALOA AND
SONORA IN MAINLAND MEXICO AND PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...22.3 N...112.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
WTPZ33 KNHC 101445
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008
800 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2008
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO
SAN LUCAS. THIS WATCH COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LOWELL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST OR ABOUT 145
MILES...235 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 175 MILES...280 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO
MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF LOWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY...THEN
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND LOWELL COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE FROM LOWELL
COULD SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE STATES OF SINALOA AND
SONORA IN MAINLAND MEXICO AND PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...22.3 N...112.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
135
WTPZ33 KNHC 102336
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008
500 PM PDT WED SEP 10 2008
...LOWELL APPROACHING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO
SAN LUCAS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LOWELL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...170 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 140 MILES...225 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO
MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF LOWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY...THEN
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THURSDAY...AND MOVE INTO MAINLAND MEXICO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LOWELL
REACHING THE BAJA PENINSULA. WEAKENING IS FORECAST ONCE LOWELL
MOVES ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
THE STATES OF SINALOA AND SONORA IN MAINLAND MEXICO.
REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...22.9 N...111.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
WTPZ33 KNHC 102336
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008
500 PM PDT WED SEP 10 2008
...LOWELL APPROACHING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO
SAN LUCAS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LOWELL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...170 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 140 MILES...225 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO
MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF LOWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY...THEN
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THURSDAY...AND MOVE INTO MAINLAND MEXICO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LOWELL
REACHING THE BAJA PENINSULA. WEAKENING IS FORECAST ONCE LOWELL
MOVES ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
THE STATES OF SINALOA AND SONORA IN MAINLAND MEXICO.
REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...22.9 N...111.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
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