WPAC SINLAKU: Severe Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Chacor]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 14N 128E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Chacor]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 14N 127E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Chacor]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.3N 128.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EVIDENT IN A 071043Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT
IMAGE DEPICTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF WIND OVER THE OUTER PORTION OF THE
DEVELOPING LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI-
CYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE TO
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE EST-
IMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS WEAK, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[RattleMan]

129
ABPW10 PGTW 072200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/072200Z-080600ZSEP2008//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3N
128.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 127.4E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 071721Z
AMSR-E PASS. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT PROVIDING LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG OUTFLOW. THIS OUTFLOW HAS BEEN
ENHANCED SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
BY AN EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND DESPITE MINIMAL LOW LEVEL
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

[Chacor]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 15.0N 126.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[Typhoon Hunter]

After a 2 week lull it looks like the Wpac's next named storm is not too far off.

JTWC have now issued a TCFA:

WTPN21 PGTW 080400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0N 127.0E TO 17.5N 122.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 080000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.0N 126.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0N
126.8W, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-NORTHEAST MANILA, PHILIPPINES,
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR A CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT IN A 072141Z
QUIKSCAT PASS. THE DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH THE CENTER OF AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO ENHANCE OUTFLOW ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON THE CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 090400Z.//

[senorpepr]

Still awaiting the bulletin from JMA, however here's the 0600 UTC info from CMA:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004HPA AT 16.1N126.1E MOVE
NNW SLOWLY AND WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S SEAS UP
TO 2.0M OVER SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES=

[senorpepr]

TPPN10 PGTW 080622
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (E OF LUZON)
B. 08/0530Z
C. 15.7N
D. 126.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0 STT: D0.5/06HRS (08/0530Z)
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAP OF .35 ON LOG 10 YIELDS A
DT OF 2.0. PT AGREES. DBO DT.

AMES

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080600UTC 15.8N 126.3E POOR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 090600UTC 17.0N 125.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[RattleMan]

PAGASA names it:

Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "MARCE"
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Monday, 08 September 2008 The active low pressure area East of Catanduanes has developed into a tropical depression and was named "MARCE".
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 240 kms Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Coordinates: 14.8°N, 126.5°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: Northwest at 15 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Tuesday morning:
160 kms East of Casiguran, Aurora
Wednesday morning:
within the vicinity of Ilocos Norte
Thursday morning:
335 kms Northwest of Ilocos Norte


Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS # Luzon Visayas Mindanao
Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds) Cagayan
Isabela
Aurora
Catanduanes None None


Tropical Depression "MARCE" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rains over Southern Luzon and Visayas.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 p.m. today.

[Chacor]

091
WTPQ20 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 16.4N 125.9E POOR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 091200UTC 18.2N 125.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

[RattleMan]

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING //
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080351Z SEP 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 16.4N 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 125.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.2N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.1N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.1N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.0N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.9N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 24.0N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 26.2N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 125.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 080351Z SEP 08
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 080400)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
NNNN

[P.K.]

T2.5 from RSMC Tokyo so I think we'll have a TS within 40 minutes. Sinlaku is the next name on the list.

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0813 SINLAKU (0813) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081800UTC 16.7N 125.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 091800UTC 19.0N 125.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 101800UTC 20.1N 124.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 111800UTC 21.2N 125.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[P.K.]

Edit - I'll just remove the advisory that has already been posted.

[HURAKAN]

[apocalypt-flyer]

Ugh, this one might pose a problem for Japan.

[HURAKAN]