ATL INVEST 91L: Discussion

[cycloneye]

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NHC
invest_al912008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200809111531
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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New invest and its not related to ex Josephine that is east of this disturbance,that is why the new thread for 91L.If NHC clarifys later that 91L is related to Ex Josephine,then the thread will be locked.

[gatorcane]

I think I see some cyclonic turning on the visibles:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[Lowpressure]

Environment looks to be quite hostile currently.

[chris_fit]

Can't find any evidence of any Low Level Circulation, but I do see some kind of rotation if I blur my eyes.

[cycloneye]

Lets see if clarification comes in future Tropical Weather Outlooks about if 91L is part of Ex Josephine or is a new system. Something like this occured in 2005 with the TD 10 later Katrina change.If its confirmed is part of Ex Josephine,then this thread will be locked and we will continue our discussions in the Ex Josephine thread.

[jlauderdal]

Lets see if clarification comes in future Tropical Weather Outlooks about if 91L is part of Ex Josephine or is a new system. Something like this occured in 2005 with the TD 10 later Katrina change.If its confirmed is part of Ex Josephine,then this thread will be locked and we will continue our discussions in the Ex Josephine thread.

will there be a invest 91 models thread

[cycloneye]

Anyone including you can make the 91L models thread

[KWT]

This reminds me very much of Hanna and Gustav, however Ike's outflow situation may be different I'm not sure?

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: Anyone including you can make the 91L models thread

thanks, destruction5 beat me to it and since i showed him how to post images i expect to see some model graphics posted by him,

[gatorcane]

this system bear watching given the time of year and where models are taking it...

convection is not too impressive at the moment but there is a huge moisture envelope it has to work with. If we see a blowup of convection over the next 6-12 hours look out.

[jlauderdal]

yesterday our polar bear was sleeping on bear watch but today the interest level by the group has increased

[gatorcane]

Upper-level wind shear tendency looking very favorable for 91L and that shear off to the west is Ike's outflow but Ike is moving west...so shouldn't be a problem for 91L

[KWT]

Yep shear looks decent, this may well be our next number we shall have to see.

[gatorcane]

Yep shear looks decent, this may well be our next number we shall have to see.

Take a look at this WV loop, 91L has a large moisture envelope that is already "fanning" out...and Ike's outflow is clearling seen on the left-hand side of the loop but far enough away from 91L to not impact it.

The rule of thumb I have been using this season is looking at the WV loop to see how much moisture the invest has around it....

This one really may be a go...

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[CrazyC83]

Looks like that 91L is Josephine to me, although we need to wait for clarification. If this develops, I'm sure there will be a debate about how it should be named...

[cycloneye]

Looks like that 91L is Josephine to me, although we need to wait for clarification. If this develops, I'm sure there will be a debate about how it should be named...

I am very eagered to know the truth about which is what about this disturbance.As I said at the first post,as soon there is confirmation from NHC that 91L is part of Ex Josephine,this thread will be locked and the ex Josephine thread will reopen.

[gatorcane]

the question becomes what will the NHC 2:00pm TWO say --- they may not be too gunhoe at first but we'll see.

I expect code yellow maybe even orange.

[HURAKAN]

It has some work to do before anything happens!

[bob rulz]

the question becomes what will the NHC 2:00pm TWO say --- they may not be too gunhoe at first but we'll see.

I expect code yellow maybe even orange.

Convection is too thin to be orange imo. I expect a yellow.

[gatorcane]

anybody have a detailed map of the SSTs in the Bahamas and Western Atlantic...I'm wondering what impact Ike has done on the SSTs...that may influence 91L