ATL INVEST 91L: Models Discussion

[DESTRUCTION5]

Ok Ill bite..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

GFS Only model i even showing a hint ATM..

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 111532
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1532 UTC THU SEP 11 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912008) 20080911 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080911 1200 080912 0000 080912 1200 080913 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.8N 66.4W 22.7N 68.3W 23.6N 70.3W 24.5N 72.0W
BAMD 21.8N 66.4W 22.8N 67.7W 23.9N 68.9W 25.2N 69.8W
BAMM 21.8N 66.4W 22.7N 67.9W 23.6N 69.4W 24.6N 70.7W
LBAR 21.8N 66.4W 22.4N 67.2W 23.1N 68.2W 23.8N 69.3W
SHIP 20KTS 28KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 20KTS 28KTS 35KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080913 1200 080914 1200 080915 1200 080916 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.5N 73.7W 27.2N 75.9W 28.5N 77.7W 30.0N 79.6W
BAMD 26.0N 70.5W 25.8N 72.3W 25.4N 75.7W 26.2N 79.8W
BAMM 25.5N 71.8W 26.6N 73.1W 26.6N 75.0W 27.2N 78.2W
LBAR 24.6N 70.1W 26.3N 71.9W 27.6N 74.7W 30.4N 77.9W
SHIP 46KTS 48KTS 46KTS 49KTS
DSHP 46KTS 48KTS 46KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.8N LONCUR = 66.4W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 21.4N LONM12 = 66.3W DIRM12 = 17DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 21.2N LONM24 = 66.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[x-y-no]

WHXX01 KWBC 111532
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1532 UTC THU SEP 11 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912008) 20080911 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080911 1200 080912 0000 080912 1200 080913 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.8N 66.4W 22.7N 68.3W 23.6N 70.3W 24.5N 72.0W
BAMD 21.8N 66.4W 22.8N 67.7W 23.9N 68.9W 25.2N 69.8W
BAMM 21.8N 66.4W 22.7N 67.9W 23.6N 69.4W 24.6N 70.7W
LBAR 21.8N 66.4W 22.4N 67.2W 23.1N 68.2W 23.8N 69.3W
SHIP 20KTS 28KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 20KTS 28KTS 35KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080913 1200 080914 1200 080915 1200 080916 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.5N 73.7W 27.2N 75.9W 28.5N 77.7W 30.0N 79.6W
BAMD 26.0N 70.5W 25.8N 72.3W 25.4N 75.7W 26.2N 79.8W
BAMM 25.5N 71.8W 26.6N 73.1W 26.6N 75.0W 27.2N 78.2W
LBAR 24.6N 70.1W 26.3N 71.9W 27.6N 74.7W 30.4N 77.9W
SHIP 46KTS 48KTS 46KTS 49KTS
DSHP 46KTS 48KTS 46KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.8N LONCUR = 66.4W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 21.4N LONM12 = 66.3W DIRM12 = 17DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 21.2N LONM24 = 66.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

That set of BAM tracks implies significant southerly shear early and even more significant northerly shear later.

[gatorcane]

x-y-no, how do you know those BAMMs aren'ts seeing a ridge building in in a few days? What indicates shear?

[gatorcane]

12Z NAM shows a 91L right off the coast of SE Florida but weak...not sheared though.

[jlauderdal]

[quote="gatorcane"]12Z NAM shows a 91L right off the coast of SE Florida but weak...not sheared though.

gator,

you better hope afm is busy with ike or you will feel the wrath of looking at the NAM, he had a doozy of a post yesterday about the NAM

[gatorcane]

edit

[x-y-no]

:uarrow:

x-y-no, how do you know those BAMMs aren'ts seeing a ridge building in in a few days? What indicates shear?

the spread between the shallow, medium and deep tracks. Early on, the deep track is well north of the shallow. Later the opposite obtains.

[gatorcane]

:uarrow:

x-y-no, how do you know those BAMMs aren'ts seeing a ridge building in in a few days? What indicates shear?

the spread between the shallow, medium and deep tracks. Early on, the deep track is well north of the shallow. Later the opposite obtains.

I hope you are right about the shear but -- I think this invest is a go though unfortunately

[x-y-no]

Take a look at the deep layer shear forecast from the GFS:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

While it depicts relatively low shear right in the Bahamas in the mid-range (probably due to outflow from convection), look at those streamlines piling down from the north straight at the Bahamas. That's a significantly sheared environment.

[gtalum]

12Z NAM shows a 91L right off the coast of SE Florida but weak...not sheared though.

And no doubt, right over Nassau on Sunday when I'm supposed to be there.

[gatorcane]

Take a look at the deep layer shear forecast from the GFS:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

While it depicts relatively low shear right in the Bahamas in the mid-range (probably due to outflow from convection), look at those streamlines piling down from the north straight at the Bahamas. That's a significantly sheared environment.

I see what you mean but that shear weakens as Ike moves towardsto the WNW...if I am seeing the animation correct.

Now as Ike moves ENE or NE over the CONUS...maybe that is what will be the issue.

[gatorcane]

we have three runs that bend it sharply west towards the Central Bahamas and South Florida and two runs that curve it out to sea. One of those is the LBAR so throw it out..

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[Blown Away]

[jinftl]

Team Ridge or Team Trough

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 111807
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1807 UTC THU SEP 11 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912008) 20080911 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080911 1800 080912 0600 080912 1800 080913 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.2N 66.2W 23.1N 68.1W 24.2N 69.9W 25.3N 71.4W
BAMD 22.2N 66.2W 23.3N 67.4W 24.5N 68.2W 25.7N 68.6W
BAMM 22.2N 66.2W 23.2N 67.8W 24.3N 69.1W 25.3N 70.0W
LBAR 22.2N 66.2W 22.7N 66.7W 23.5N 67.6W 24.3N 68.3W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 42KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 42KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080913 1800 080914 1800 080915 1800 080916 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.3N 72.7W 28.0N 74.7W 30.1N 75.7W 32.3N 74.2W
BAMD 26.1N 68.9W 25.0N 70.6W 24.2N 74.5W 23.7N 78.3W
BAMM 26.2N 70.7W 26.5N 71.6W 26.3N 73.7W 26.1N 76.2W
LBAR 25.1N 68.9W 26.8N 70.0W 28.8N 72.3W 32.2N 72.9W
SHIP 51KTS 49KTS 43KTS 43KTS
DSHP 51KTS 49KTS 43KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.2N LONCUR = 66.2W DIRCUR = 355DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 21.5N LONM12 = 66.1W DIRM12 = 20DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 21.2N LONM24 = 66.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[jlauderdal]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
227 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

SYNOPSIS
HURRICANE IKE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NW TO WESTERN GULF AND FURTHER AWAY FROM S. FLORIDA. ATLC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD. AREA OF LOW
PRESS AT MID/UPPER LVLS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO MAY AFFECT S. FL SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON.


LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
GFS BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS SAT
NIGHT TO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, IT DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER. WL HOWEVER, INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP SAT THROUGH MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE WL STAY
CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH MOSTLY ISOLD TO LOW SCT POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PACKAGE.

[gatorcane]

TAFB thinks it heading towards Southern Florida as a wave, but this forecast was put out earlier today:

[jinftl]

do the models that say north show a stronger system earlier than the models saying west?

Team Ridge or Team Trough

[gatorcane]

almost definitely this system is going WNW or W bound ultimately....all model runs that have picked it up including the NAM and GFS show a WNW or West movement of 91L.