ATL INVEST 91L: Models Discussion

[HurricaneFreak]

Where will this Invest 91 go, enter models, data, loops.Nhc calls this the remnants of Josephine.Will this be a fish storm or take it up anywhere on the east coast?

[gatorcane]

18Z NAM develops 91L and moves it westbound into the Central Bahamas at 60 hours:



It is the NAM though

[HurricaneFreak]

THRE IS NOW AND OFFICIAL CODE YELLOW FOR REMNANTS OF EX JOSEY CHECK THIS NHC SITE LINK
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON LARGE
HURRICANE IKE...LOCATED ABOUT 440 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON
TEXAS.

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...INCLUDING SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE...HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM TO OCCUR AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[lonelymike]

:eek:
THRE IS NOW AND OFFICIAL CODE YELLOW FOR REMNANTS OF EX JOSEY CHECK THIS NHC SITE LINK
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON LARGE
HURRICANE IKE...LOCATED ABOUT 440 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON
TEXAS.

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...INCLUDING SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE...HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM TO OCCUR AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Uh...Less than 20% chance of development. Hmmm...sounds like more

[HurricaneFreak]

Uh...Less than 20% chance of development. Hmmm...sounds like more [/quote]
Are u saying that it should be a higher chance of development?

[DeanDaDream]

More models picking up on it.
http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/91-googlemaps.shtml

[DanKellFla]

The models have a 90 degree difference in the possible tracks. Way too soon to do anything but watch it and maybe smash a spam can while waiting.

[lonelymike]

Uh...Less than 20% chance of development. Hmmm...sounds like more

Are u saying that it should be a higher chance of development?[/quote]
No I'm saying it probably won't develop. Read Jeff Master's blog on weather underground and you'll get an idea I'm talking about.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 121834
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1834 UTC FRI SEP 12 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912008) 20080912 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080912 1800 080913 0600 080913 1800 080914 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.5N 71.4W 23.0N 73.2W 23.7N 74.9W 24.3N 76.5W
BAMD 22.5N 71.4W 23.4N 73.0W 24.3N 74.9W 25.1N 77.0W
BAMM 22.5N 71.4W 23.1N 72.9W 23.9N 74.6W 24.8N 76.4W
LBAR 22.5N 71.4W 23.0N 72.4W 23.7N 73.6W 24.2N 74.9W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080914 1800 080915 1800 080916 1800 080917 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.1N 78.1W 26.4N 80.0W 26.3N 81.1W 25.9N 83.0W
BAMD 26.0N 79.3W 29.1N 83.2W 33.5N 81.8W 38.0N 77.9W
BAMM 25.7N 78.0W 28.1N 80.5W 29.8N 80.7W 30.8N 81.2W
LBAR 24.9N 76.1W 26.9N 78.7W 29.2N 78.7W 30.9N 77.9W
SHIP 43KTS 48KTS 51KTS 49KTS
DSHP 43KTS 48KTS 51KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.5N LONCUR = 71.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 22.3N LONM12 = 70.0W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 22.2N LONM24 = 68.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HurricaneFreak]

Oh my gosh a lot of models point it towards Palm beach county especially Boca Raton..thats me!
http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/91-googlemaps.shtml

[HURAKAN]

HurricaneFreak, don't freak out!!!

Formation is still in

[HurricaneFreak]

Yea what about 3 years ago when katrina dissapated then reformed right over the bahamas and then smcked me and u in miami as a hurricane

[gatorcane]

not only that but models were pointing at the FL Keys yesterday...

so they will likely change

development chances are low at the moment anyway -- maybe some rain and t-storms for Florida that is all at this point

[HurricaneFreak]

Still something to watch though and guess WHAT EVERYONE NHC SAYS THAT THRE IS A CODE YELLOW FOR THIS ORGANIED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IN MID ATLANTIC AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT ALREADY HAS CONVECTION TO ME IN THIS LOOP
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html