ATL Ex. INVEST 92L: Discussion

[Blown Away]

Again the models want to move 92L NW and it is clearly moving WNW. Still looks like 92L won't cross 20N before 60W. The LLC does not look as good as it did on Saturday.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[cycloneye]

[DESTRUCTION5]

Had a feeling this would make it back here on the active forum..

[gatorcane]

when would Upper-Level conditions improve for this invest?

This may be one of those "stealth" invests that move W or WNW all the way across the atlantic as a weak/sheared mess then take off once conditions improve farther west.

[caribepr]

Coming home to Culebra tomorrow, and glad for not having anything TOO close that might block the way (or I'd just start swimming now!)

[HURAKAN]

AL, 92, 2008091512, , BEST, 0, 182N, 550W, 25, 1013

[Weatherfreak000]

Shear remains marginal for at least the surface feature to survive for the next couple of days....there is a fairly nice ridge still intact which as of now would keep on the path towards the Florida Straits where the environment synoptically would be reasonably favorable...however a cold front is progged to push in that area by Day 6.


Whatever would come of this is basically a guaranteed fish.

[Sanibel]

Losing the surface feature.

[caribepr]

AL, 92, 2008091512, , BEST, 0, 182N, 550W, 25, 1013

So maybe I should start swimming, huh?

[HURAKAN]

LLC is visible.

[gatorcane]

Isn't wind shear decreasing out ahead of 92L?

[Gustywind]

Isn't wind shear decreasing out ahead of 92L?

Absolutely Gatorcane, looks like shear is abating a bit in vicinity of the wave, and thus near the Leewards Islands...need to watch that

[gatorcane]

Gustywind, well hopefully it goes poof like 91L. We all need some down time after the past couple of weeks

[HURAKAN]

Poor little LLC.

[Gustywind]

Gustywind, well hopefully it goes poof like 91L. We all need some down time after the past couple of weeks

Yeah , how are you Gatorcane? It's evident that we need some down time i understand that due to the important activity and especially the last weeks in your country , , but sometimes you know that better than me...and often Mother Nature does not call for any timeout( especially in September! ), so hope you're right Gatorcane . For my part i will stay more prudent and wait to say that i will go poof like 91L. We're in the peak and in..September, us in the islands should not never let our guard down, i don't like to see waves popping and afterwards churning near the Leewards at this period... . Whereas, seems that winds are maybe slightly marginal for the moment given the map, but don't know if this thing could developp ? , so let's see what happens during the next couple of hours .

[storms in NC]

Gustywind, well hopefully it goes poof like 91L. We all need some down time after the past couple of weeks

91L had no energy to work to stay together. With the shear it just went poof as you said. It had no hope after it split from Josephine. And with 92 L is going to be hard to say. If it can get out of the shears it may have a small Chance. It will have to get past the ULL first to the north of 92L http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

.

[fci]

I, for one; am enjoying the break from watching "danger" and instead following a poor little, disheveled, confused Invest.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Popping trend for this wave the s/w part is gaining nice convection approaching the 14°N...

[Blown Away]

Isn't wind shear decreasing out ahead of 92L?

There is no convection around the LLC and the LLC was moving through a small window of low shear and did not build any convection. The LLC is still there but just seems the environment is so hostile it does not seem likely this little guy can get his act together.

[HURAKAN]

The tropics are quiet
Today, for the first time since August 15, we do not have a named storm in the Atlantic. The remains of Josephine are completely gone, so we will not have a seventh consecutive named storm hit the U.S. The landfall of Ike on Saturday set a new record, giving us strikes by six consecutive named storms. Five was the previous record, set most recently in 2004.

An area of disturbed weather (92L), 600 miled east of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, has changed little in the past 24 hours. This disturbance is under about 25 knots of wind shear, and is suffering from dry air to its west. NHC is giving this system a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. Wind shear is expected to remain high, above 20 knots, for the next three days. By Thursday, if 92L finds itself farther south than expected--near the Bahama Islands--shear may drop enough to allow development to occur. We should keep an eye on this one, if it does stay to the south.

Elsewhere, the GFS model is forecasting development of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa seven days from now.

I'll discuss the long-term outlook for the coming two weeks in a blog entry on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters