BOB TWO-B: Deep Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

CrazyC83, deep depression is a regular depression in our part of the world. Cyclonic storm is a weak TS storm in our part of the work.

Impact of Cyclonic Storms and Suggested Mitigation Actions

Category: Deep Depression

T.No.: T 2.0

Wind Speed: 28 – 33 Knots (52 – 61 Kmph)



Structures: Minor damage to loose/unsecured structures.

Road/Rail: Some breaches in kutcha road due to flooding.

Communications: Minor

Agriculture: Minor damage to banana trees and near-coastal agriculture due to salt

spray. Damage to ripe paddy crops.

Marine Interests: Very rough seas. Sea waves about 4-6 m high.

Coastal Zone: Minor damage to kutcha embankments.

Overall Damage Category: Minor

Suggested Actions: Fishermen advised not to venture into sea.

Link: http://www.imd.gov.in/services/cyclone/impact.htm

[RL3AO]

I think that eye means it is a deep depression now

Deep depression = a low-end tropical storm on our side of the world (equivalent to about 35-40 kt in 1-min sustained). That looks more like a Cyclonic Storm (mid-range tropical storm) or even on the low end of Severe Cyclonic Storm (high-end tropical storm or Category 1 equivalent).

Derek knows that. Hes just taking a shot at the IMD for Cyclone Sidr last year which had a full eye but was still called a "deep depression" from the IMD.

EDIT: Heres the "deep depression"

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/IO/06B.SIDR/tc_ssmis/91h/1degreeticks/20071112.0217.f16.x.91h_1deg.06BNONAME.50kts-985mb-104N-908E.78pc.jpg

[HURAKAN]

Fay-ish!

[CrazyC83]

CrazyC83, deep depression is a regular depression in our part of the world. Cyclonic storm is a weak TS storm in our part of the work.

Impact of Cyclonic Storms and Suggested Mitigation Actions

Category: Deep Depression

T.No.: T 2.0

Wind Speed: 28 – 33 Knots (52 – 61 Kmph)



Structures: Minor damage to loose/unsecured structures.

Road/Rail: Some breaches in kutcha road due to flooding.

Communications: Minor

Agriculture: Minor damage to banana trees and near-coastal agriculture due to salt

spray. Damage to ripe paddy crops.

Marine Interests: Very rough seas. Sea waves about 4-6 m high.

Coastal Zone: Minor damage to kutcha embankments.

Overall Damage Category: Minor

Suggested Actions: Fishermen advised not to venture into sea.

Link: http://www.imd.gov.in/services/cyclone/impact.htm

Those numbers are in 3-minute sustained winds though.

[RattleMan]

What's up with the name of this thread? BOB TWO-B? That's the JTWC designation, not the IMD...

IMD is named "BOB 04", JTWC is "TC 02B".

[Chacor]

If I may ask, Matt. What exactly were you unhappy about? That the IMD did not name the storm?

1) NO centre in the world will name a storm over land without observations (and even sometimes with - see NHC/Erin). JTWC themselves did not restart warnings despite the "strengthening", they only issued two warnings - one off the coast and one after landfall.
2) The JTWC never warned higher than 35 kts. IMD uses 3/10-minute, so its warning of 30-35 kts, without naming, was more than justified.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If I may ask, Matt. What exactly were you unhappy about? That the IMD did not name the storm?

1) NO centre in the world will name a storm over land without observations (and even sometimes with - see NHC/Erin). JTWC themselves did not restart warnings despite the "strengthening", they only issued two warnings - one off the coast and one after landfall.
2) The JTWC never warned higher than 35 kts. IMD uses 3/10-minute, so its warning of 30-35 kts, without naming, was more than justified.

Who knows how strong this system was, it looked to be around 35 knots. But there is no way to prove that. This whole thing really had nothing to do with this system, but I was just replying to a member that said that the "JTWC" number should not be used, I believe it should. I also have a little dislike of them with their history of waiting a long time to upgrade a system, I agree with Derek Ortt on this.

I hope I don't get in trouble for doing this, I know that I could. Maybe I'm kind of trigger happy some times, but I believe in good data, that allows us to improve the record. I think its important. Most people most likely could care less about it, but I'm weird.

I think this system looked pretty good. If given more time it likely would of became more.

[Chacor]

Sure, Matt. But we all should respect the differences between 10-minute and 1-minute: to be fair, only the United States regularly uses a 1-minute scale. Reporting in 10-minute winds are bound to return a lower value.

The fact is that IMD numbered this system BOB 04, so why not use BOB 04 over 02B?

Regarding your earlier point about JTWC having a world-wide record: I also have to disagree. The JMA in the WPac for example has in the past named storms (very, very obvious storms) that JTWC did not even warn on.

[ugaap]

All experts if you can give any feedback on what would be the track of this depression?

[badkhan]

I know this is offtopic but since we are discussing the monitoring of systems in North Indian Ocean, so here are my two cents. Mods can shift it to the appropriate thread.

I am no expert in this matter, and i've started following weather only after Gonu, but IMO the fault in IMDs monitoring lies in the frequency of advisories issued, IMD usually issues advisories after every 24 hours during the development stage of a system and there advisories are based on what the system looks at (usually) 0600 UTC, they are not concerned with what might have happened to the system during the rest of the day. So they usually fall behind against other agencies. It was only during Nargis, when IMD started issuing advisories after every 3 hours, that they became efficient and the status of the storm was regularly and accurately updated.

It might be because there is only a single 12 hour shift of meteorologists in the IMD, so there might be no one monitoring these systems in India when most of you guys from the US do it.

[Chacor]

That's not correct at all. Previously they issued advisories every six hours, but their advisories came out about 4 hours late each time. All WMO RSMCs issue TC warnings at least every 6 hours, so they were mandated to do so. It wasn't a once-every-24-hours thing, they still did it every six hours.

[badkhan]

That's not correct at all. Previously they issued advisories every six hours, but their advisories came out about 4 hours late each time. All WMO RSMCs issue TC warnings at least every 6 hours, so they were mandated to do so. It wasn't a once-every-24-hours thing, they still did it every six hours.

True

Any chance of it crossing over to the Arabian sea?

[somethingfunny]

That's not correct at all. Previously they issued advisories every six hours, but their advisories came out about 4 hours late each time. All WMO RSMCs issue TC warnings at least every 6 hours, so they were mandated to do so. It wasn't a once-every-24-hours thing, they still did it every six hours.

True

Any chance of it crossing over to the Arabian sea?

I don't think I've ever seen it happen even close to that far north.

[ugaap]

There has been 20 inches of rain in Gujarat state of India around area 22.5N 71.5E from an upper air cyclonic circulation over Gujarat. Is there any possibility of the deppression BOB04 or TWO-B moving towards Gujarat and merge with the cyclonic circulation? Hope some Experts give their opinion.