WPAC HAGUPIT (PAGASA: Nina): Typhoon - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

23/1430 UTC 20.8N 113.3E T6.0/6.0 HAGUPIT -- West Pacific Ocean

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My strength thinking...

130 knots/917 millibars

I think that could even be on the high side for Pressure...This thing is amazly strong for being so close to the land mass.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is a Gustav(Cuba) like event about to occur. Heck, I think this is stronger then Gustav. I will look for info on how many people live in this area.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guangdong

113,040,000 people living in this area. It has the most people of all. If this slided northward it would hit it.

[CrazyC83]

My strength thinking...

130 knots/917 millibars

I think that could even be on the high side for Pressure...This thing is amazly strong for being so close to the land mass.

That seems about right, maybe a little less...say 125 kt, as a blend of the T6.0 (115) and T6.9 (135). I'd say 921mb for the pressure.

[CrazyC83]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guangdong

113,040,000 people living in this area. It has the most people of all. If this slided northward it would hit it.

This could be really bad then. This is like a Category 4 hurricane hitting the northeast US coast.

[HURAKAN]

A few hours ago.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Watch it live!!!

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 182130.GIF

Like Ike, the eye is contracting and it appears to be intensifying as it's getting closer to landfall.

[CrazyC83]

At the rate it is intensifying, it may get close to Cat 5 before landfall.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like the intensity has been increased to 120 knots at 18z.

Code: Select all

200809231800     21.1     112.4     120

Link: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=WP182008

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 SEP 2008 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 21:09:44 N Lon : 112:02:27 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 895.1mb/143.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.1 7.0 7.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.9mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 37 km

Center Temp : +4.3C Cloud Region Temp : -77.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[CrazyC83]

Looks like the intensity has been increased to 120 knots at 18z.

Code: Select all

200809231800     21.1     112.4     120

Link: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=WP182008

Still seems conservative, although the next SAB and TAFB estimates will play a big role.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hagupit hit Hong Kong much harder than I was expecting. There are trees down all over the southern part of Hong Kong island and we got nailed by some pretty strong squalls. I feel for the poor people of Yangjiang, they are about to be blown off the map.

[HURAKAN]

Very, very impressive.

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be making landfall now. My guess is 130-135 kt for the landfall intensity as it was rapidly deepening.

[beaufort12]

this is something you do not wish to see happen anywhere. when you look at the latest sats, you know how devastating this will be. i feel very bad for the people in Hagupit's path.

[RattleMan]

WTPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 18W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 21.1N 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 112.4E
[...]

[HURAKAN]

It was a very close call for Hong Kong.

[HURAKAN]

Hong Kong is suffering bad weather as well as bad financial news. A pedestrian takes cover as Typhoon Hagupit approaches while the blue-chip Hang Seng index plummets nearly 4%.

Link: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/7631339.stm

Bad news everywhere!!