EPAC INVEST 90E: Discussion

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC
invest_ep902008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200809181822
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

[cycloneye]

910
WHXX01 KMIA 181823
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1823 UTC THU SEP 18 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902008) 20080918 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080918 1800 080919 0600 080919 1800 080920 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 96.0W 11.4N 97.0W 12.5N 97.8W 13.7N 98.6W
BAMD 10.5N 96.0W 10.7N 98.4W 11.2N 100.6W 11.8N 102.6W
BAMM 10.5N 96.0W 11.0N 97.7W 11.8N 99.2W 12.7N 100.6W
LBAR 10.5N 96.0W 10.9N 97.4W 11.7N 98.8W 12.5N 100.2W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 46KTS 55KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 46KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080920 1800 080921 1800 080922 1800 080923 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 99.5W 16.2N 102.8W 18.4N 108.0W 19.4N 113.8W
BAMD 12.3N 104.4W 13.3N 107.7W 14.3N 110.6W 15.2N 113.8W
BAMM 13.5N 102.2W 14.9N 105.7W 15.9N 109.7W 16.3N 113.6W
LBAR 13.4N 101.5W 15.0N 104.3W 17.7N 107.6W 21.8N 110.5W
SHIP 63KTS 69KTS 78KTS 78KTS
DSHP 63KTS 69KTS 78KTS 78KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 96.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 95.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 93.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[CrazyC83]

The models seem to like this thing...

[HurricaneBill]

Anyone think we'll see at least one more major hurricane in the EPAC this year? Or do you think Hernan will be the only one?

[CrazyC83]

Anyone think we'll see at least one more major hurricane in the EPAC this year? Or do you think Hernan will be the only one?

Conditions aren't exactly prime for them out there...so I'd bet against another major, but we could always be wrong.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Nah I don't think we will get another major.

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 182353
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING A LARGE DISORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HURAKAN]

Lots of convection, little organization.

[HURAKAN]

055
ABPZ20 KNHC 191745
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS CONTINUING TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST
OR WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 201153
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE SLOW MOTION
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND COULD RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HURAKAN]

Looking better.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASED
ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND PARALLELS THE
COAST OF MEXICO. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...ITS SLOW MOTION AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND
COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Ptarmigan]

I hope it moves away from land. One of the models have it in the Gulf of Mexico again. East Pacific has only had one major hurricane. I guess La Nina has put a lit on the East Pacific.

[HURAKAN]

122
ABPZ20 KNHC 202344
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MEXICAN RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO.
WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ITS
SLOW MOTION AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

826
ABPZ20 KNHC 211757
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OR MOTION IS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL
TO NEAR MANZANILLO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

487
ABPZ20 KNHC 212335
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS ALSO PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE
COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM
PUERTO ANGEL TO NEAR MANZANILLO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

743
ABPZ20 KNHC 221128
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

605
ABPZ20 KNHC 221733
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN