ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[Dave]

Data from Buoy 44011 as of 1650 UTC:

TIME: 1650 UTC
LAT: 41.11
LON: -66.58
DIST: 66.00 nm
HDG: 50 T
WDIR: 190 T
WSPD: 31.1 kts
GST: 40.8 kts
WVHT: 36.1 ft
DPD: 15.0 sec
APD: 10.3 sec
MWD: - T
PRES: 29.15 in
PTDY - 0.43 in
ATMP: 64.0 F
WTMP: 55.2 F
DEWP 64.0 F

[CrazyC83]

WTCN31 CWHX 281749
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 2:49 PM ADT SUNDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= LUNENBURG COUNTY
=NEW= QUEENS COUNTY NOVA SCOTIA
=NEW= ANNAPOLIS COUNTY
=NEW= FUNDY NATIONAL PARK
=NEW= MONCTON AND SOUTHEAST NEW BRUNSWICK
SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY
GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE COUNTY.

HURRICANE KYLE IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MARITIMES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED GALES...WINDS OF
63 KM/H OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 24
HOURS. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF
LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR:
=NEW= SHELBURNE COUNTY
=NEW= YARMOUTH COUNTY
=NEW= DIGBY COUNTY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT ONE OR BOTH OF THE FOLLOWING DANGEROUS
EFFECTS OF A HURRICANE ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN
24 HOURS:

(A) SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ... WINDS OF 118 KM/H OR MORE;

(B) DANGEROUSLY HIGH WATER OR A COMBINATION OF DANGEROUSLY HIGH WATER
AND EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH WAVES, EVEN THOUGH WINDS EXPECTED MAY BE LESS
THAN HURRICANE FORCE.

BY NATURE A HURRICANE ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ENDED FOR:
SHELBURNE COUNTY
YARMOUTH COUNTY
DIGBY COUNTY.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT 2PM ADT KYLE APPEARS TO BE IN LINE FOR LANDFALL THIS EVENING IN
WESTERN YARMOUTH COUNTY NOVA SCOTIA AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR
MARGINAL CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. EVEN IF IT BRUSHES THE COAST AND
PASSES INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO 130 KM/H
SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AREA WITH
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 100 KM/H WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
FUNDY COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHWEST NOVA
SCOTIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

THESE SAME WINDS SPEEDS IN SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE PAST HAVE CAUSED
TREE DAMAGE RESULTING IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES
DUE TO FALLING BRANCHES LIMBS OR OR TREES. ALL PREPARATIONS TO
SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE COMPLETED IMMEDIATELY.

WATER LEVELS IN YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE COUNTIES ARE NOW EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1.0 METRE ABOVE NORMAL WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TIME
OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. ACCORDINGLY A STORM SURGE WARNING FOR
THOSE AREAS HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE ATLANTIC STORM PREEICTION CENTRE.
THIS COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS ROUGH SURF LATE THIS EVENING WILL LEAD
TO SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO THE COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE MAINLY
IN YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES.

KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO MOST OF NEW
BRUNSWICK WHERE RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. 50 TO 100
MILLIMETRES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. EMO NEW
BRUNSWICK REMINDS THE PUBLIC THAT RAINFALL IN THESE AMOUNTS IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAN RESULT IN RAPID INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS IN
STREAMS AND RIVERS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/CHC

[jinftl]

2PM Wind Conditions across the northeast u.s.....non-event....


PORTLAND, ME E3
BAR HARBOR, ME NE6
BOSTON W7
WORCESTER CALM
NANTUCKET NW14
PROVIDENCE SW3
NEW YORK CITY CALM

[JonathanBelles]

CHC keeps it a hurricane to landfall.

[CrazyC83]

That seems like what will probably happen as well. I think baroclinic forcing will allow it to maintain its strength (or even strengthen some).

[Brent]

Looks extratropical:

[Just Joshing You]

I wonder if that western side will wrap around and pound nova scotia at any point :p

[cycloneye]

Looks extratropical:

My guess is that the last advisory from NHC will be at 11 PM EDT.

[CrazyC83]

I think by 11 pm it will be declared ET.

However, at this point, surface obs at Baccaro Point still make it appear tropical (winds in the last three hours rose from 25 mph to 35 to 41 to 52 mph with the center approaching) and the temperature is currently rising there.

[Just Joshing You]

Winds are still crazy calm here. Like.. nothing at all. No breeze really, 1-2 mph winds.

[CrazyC83]

I have satellite and I am watching the 6 pm news from Halifax...quite impressive coverage for Canada. I don't think it streams online though.

Radar still suggests a partial eyewall just offshore.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Looks extratropical:

Indeed, it does have that classic coma shape look. If it isn't extratropical already, it sure will be soon IMO.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Great close up RGB pic of Kyle:

[Just Joshing You]

It's starting to get windy here. Over 20 minutes it went from calm to probably 20-30 KM/H sustained.

[CrazyC83]

The center appears to be right over or just west of Yarmouth right now.

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

The radar center seems to match with the satellite center - just off Yarmouth.

[Ed Mahmoud]

HURRICANE KYLE INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 6.00 PM ADT
SUNDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

AT 6.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
42.6 N AND LONGITUDE 66.5 W... ABOUT 77 NAUTICAL MILES OR 142 KM
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA. THE SURFACE LOCATION IS
ACCURATE TO WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES.

KYLE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH AT 23 KNOTS... 43 KM/H. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H AND CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 984 MB.

THE CENTRE OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CLIP WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA ...
HOWEVER AS KYLE UNDERGOES TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL STORM THE
EXACT LOCATION OF LANDFALL BECOMES LESS IMPORTANT.

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR DIGBY YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE
COUNTIES OF NOVA SCOTIA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE FUNDY COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE REMAINING COASTAL AREAS
AROUND SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS REACHED THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
BEFORE 5PM ADT SUNDAY ... GUSTING TO 119 KM/H AT BACCARO POINT.
VOLUNTEER WEATHER OBSERVER AT CAPE SABLE ISLAND REPORTED BRANCHES
BREAKING AWAY FROM TREES. THE HIGHEST WINDS REPORTED FROM THE MARINE
DISTRICT WERE 126 KM/H FROM THE GEORGES BANK BUOY 44011 AT 1PM ADT.


HEAVY RAIN MOVED INTO SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHWESTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STORM
DRIED OUT AS IT BEGAN ITS TRANSITION PROCESS TO A POST-TROPICAL
STORM. AS A RESULT THE RAINFALL FOR NOVA SCOTIA MAY BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT.

FOR INLAND RAIN AND WIND WARNINGS AND MARINE WARNINGS PUBLIC AND
MARINE INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED FOR THEIR REGION BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

END BOWYER/ROUSSEL

[Just Joshing You]

Wow.. I just went for a short walk up the road for some Coke. Let me tell you...

I started walking out, was smirking about how calm it seemed to be. By the time I was half way up the road, about 500 metres, I was completely soaked, but the wind wasn't that bad. By the time I got to the store and turned around, the wind was so bad that I, a 200 lb man, was being gently pushed. Not enough to put me off track, but enough for me to notice.

The rain started coming in sheets, and it pounded the pavement in torrents. As I got to my house, I looked up at the light and noticed the wind was whipping the rain around the side of the house very powerfully.

I got so wet that my boxers are soaked through my pants. My shirt is damp through my sweater.

Kyle is the real deal, folks. I doubt there will be tons of damage, but there will be some, and the winds are probably approaching sustained 35-40 kt and gusts to over 50-55 kt.

[tropicana]

Pressures down to 988mb at Yarmouth at 9pm AST, and the temperature has dropped to 14C 58F, the winds that were gusting to at least 80 km/h 50mph have dropped to under 20 km/h at this site, probably just temporarily.

Just to the south, on the coast, at Baccarro Point, winds have gusted to over 100 km/h, at 9pm they were gusting to 89 km/h and the barometric pressure was 993mb

-justin-