ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[cycloneye]

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Thread at Talking Tropics:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=103270&start=0

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This should not last long as it is moving into a wall of shear.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

It has a little anticyclone over it, but its heading for hati, DR. In shear could easly go up.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg

See those clouds being streamed south to north around 60-65 west. That is shear...I believe the shear maps are wrong.

[rockyman]

Current steering flow:


Wind shear tendencies:

[cycloneye]

[Gustywind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg

See those clouds being streamed south to north around 60-65 west. That is shear...I believe the shear maps are wrong.

You seems to know all tonight Matt-hurricanewatcher so when can we see Kyle?

[cycloneye]

Hispanola is like a magnet this year for Cyclones.Hopefully,this system doesnt go that way as Haiti is still recuperating from the past landfalls of Gustav,Hanna and Ike.However,the first model runs have to be taken with not a confidence manner as they will change constantly.

[CrazyC83]

Hispanola is like a magnet this year for Cyclones.Hopefully,this system doesnt go that way as Haiti is still recuperating from the past landfalls of Gustav,Hanna and Ike.However,the first model runs have to be taken with not a confidence manner as they will change constantly.

Even an unnamed messy wave could be catastrophic there. This HAS to stay south (or die).

[boca]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

I don't think 93L will last 24 hrs because the system will be moving into higher shear values as it moves WNW. Maybe this will dissipate before visiting Haiti/ Hispanola.

[Gustywind]

i don't like the huge patch of convection to the 55 W because if winds continue to abate ( and it highly a bit possible given the shear tendency map) weather conditions could be very unstelled weather conditions for all the east carib, let's see wait really happens.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
This area of convection 54-55w is more concentrated with numerous showerds and a few thunderstorms can refire at any time we should continue to monitor this 93L and see how the things are evolving ...

[DeanDaDream]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't think 93L will last 24 hrs because the system will be moving into higher shear values as it moves WNW. Maybe this will dissipate before visiting Haiti/ Hispanola.[/quote]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
The region is under about 10-20 knots of wind shear, and probably won't be able to organize much today or Friday due to the shear and presence of the upper-level low pressure system. By Saturday, wind shear is expected to drop over the entire Caribbean, and the upper level wind flow becomes more anticyclonic. These are favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development, and we may have something develop by Sunday in the central or western Caribbean.

[Sanibel]

Have to see refire before taking it as real.


Off-topic: Heard cat screaming in front yard and went out to check. Saw a 5 foot gator with a young raccoon in its jaws. The wetland pool wasn't deep enough and the gator wasn't big enough to take it. The gator didn't like the flashlight so it let go and the critter came running out and walked away with its big mother. Gators are smarter than they look. They never go in the front yard pools because they are vulnerable. The only reason it was there is because it was watching those raccoons over the last few nights. It won't be in there tomorrow morning. All they do is sit and watch.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looks sickly, but banding is evident.

[HURAKAN]

Shear not a problem according to the Skew-T.

[Thunder44]

This area is still in yellow, but latest two talks some more organization possible in the next few days:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 190555
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS PRODUCINJG WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
SOME ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 190618
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC WEST OF 50W...AND THROUGH 0545 UTC EAST OF 50W...

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W SOUTH
OF 19N MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W
AND 55W. AT LEAST 2.28 INCHES OF RAIN WERE REPORTED IN
GUADELOUPE FROM 18/0000 UTC UNTIL 19/0000 UTC WITH THIS WAVE.

And my friends maybe NHC is refering about the 130 millimeters at Marie-Galante, 60 at Ste Anne,and others locations ( 4 or 5 with decent amount )
with the same that's mean amount near 50 to 60 millimeters, whereas that's somewhat huge but not exceptional...

[Gustywind]

Latest from NRL navy site: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

0945 UTC: 12, 9° N 59,8W 20 KTS 1010 Hpa

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb.jpg
93 L on sat pic

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190916
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
NOW CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ENTERING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TUTT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WHILE FILLING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE DISTURBED WEATHER/TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDERGO LESSER UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AS THE TUTT LOW LIFTS FURTHER NORTHWARDS...AND EXPECT
A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT WITH INCREASING ASSOCIATED CONVECTION OVER
THE WEEKEND. ITS EXTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS AS WELL AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...A
FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...THEREBY INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MOISTURE FIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WHILE MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS...
WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS TROPICAL WAVES WILL
APPROACHES THE REGION EVERY COUPLE DAYS OR SO. ALSO...HOW THIS
PRESENT FEATURE EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO..WOULD DETERMINE
THE EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. REGARDLESS...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED ACTIVITY. THEREFORE
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND PRESENT CONDITIONS...EXPECT INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL...
ISLANDS WHICH IN TURN COULD LEAD TO URBAN AND FLASH AND OR RIVER
FLOODING. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR HOW THIS
SYSTEM UNFOLDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

In other words,this discussion from the San Juan NWS still does not offer a firm forecast about how much rain Puerto Rico will get from this as track and strengh is not clear.

[Gustywind]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Winds continue to calm down in vicinity of 93L...

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 190902
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2008

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING...IS PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. SOME
ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...A RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS TO
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS
ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE
REGION. A WET WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.