ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[wxman57]

Wxman,

I agree that NHC is probably overestimating Kyle's winds. Satellite estimates do show a large area of 50 kt+ winds in the eastern quadrant. Buoy reports show that those satellite estimates are probably a bit too high also. However, with recon reporting a central pressure of 991 mb and high pressures nearby to the northeast, it is believable that there are about 60 kt winds in the northeast quadrant.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 0_SWND.GIF

That satellite estimate looks pretty good - it matches surface obs in the area. I just don't see that Kyle is "strengthening" as per the NHC's discussion. More likely an area of 55-60kt winds in the NE quadrant and very little in the western semicircle.

[Sanibel]

Landfall in Canada will tell you what kind of winds it has.


South-sheared naked eye.

[Just Joshing You]

I saw some graphic that showed 50 KT winds far, far from the surface center. I overlayed that image and it appears I'll be in sustained 50 kt winds if it doesn't weaken significantly.

[CrazyC83]

Landfall in Canada will tell you what kind of winds it has.


South-sheared naked eye.

I remember the same happening with Juan (although he had a much better structure) and was estimated at about 70 kt at landfall before surface observations confirmed 85 kt winds.

[Just Joshing You]

Juan hit on a Sunday night at around the same time. lol go figure.

[CrazyC83]

Juan hit on a Sunday night at around the same time. lol go figure.

Same day as well. The last time this calendar existed was in 2003.

[Just Joshing You]

That's a weird coincidence. I don't expect anything really bad from Kyle any longer, but there is the potential for damage.

[Just Joshing You]

OUCH Current track damn it.

[Just Joshing You]

[CrazyC83]

It has definitely shifted more right. I'm guessing landfall around Lockeport, NS.

[Just Joshing You]

This storm has the potential for 6 landfalls.. LOL

[tropicana]

Juan hit on a Sunday night at around the same time. lol go figure.

Same day as well. The last time this calendar existed was in 2003.

Juan made landfall as a 100mph hurricane near to Halifax NS on the evening of Sunday, September 29, 2003.
It was described as the worst hurricane to hit the Halifax area.
Kyle will make landfall on the southern Nova Scotia shoreline it appears now, but its winds shouldnt be as strong as those
of Juan.
Still so interesting, almost 5 years to the exact day, date and time.

-justin-

[jconsor]

Georges Bank buoy at 41.1N 66.6W is getting pounded. Sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 80 mph, and pressure down to 990 mb.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44011

[CrazyC83]

Georges Bank buoy at 41.1N 66.6W is getting pounded. Sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 80 mph, and pressure down to 990 mb.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44011

990/50 (kt) = 985mb central pressure?

[CrazyC83]

I also believe buoy estimates are 8-minute sustained winds.

[CrazyC83]

That buoy is now reporting a 987mb pressure.

[Praxus]

That buoy is now reporting a 987mb pressure.

Had to find a converter to understand the 29.15 reading...dunno why they don't use millibars like the NHC.

[wxman57]

Well, the buoy confirms Kyle is a tropical storm. But absolutely no evidence of hurricane force winds at the surface. Winds 100 miles west of the center are 10-15 kts. Here's a 17Z sfc plot, not much of a wind field, and certainly not a hurricane. That would be a cold front extending from the eastern side of Kyle, by the way.

[Dave]

As of 1650 UTC from 44011

[Just Joshing You]

Light breeze from where I am located.