ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[Derek Ortt]

I think 65KT may be justified

I'd like to see 850mb FL winds of 80KT... but the SFMR winds of cane force are within the margin of error

[Thunder44]

This set of SFMR winds were most believable:

183130 3423N 06831W 8429 01564 0108 +142 +140 123069 069 065 001 00
183200 3422N 06832W 8442 01549 0114 +130 +130 125070 071 064 004 00
183230 3421N 06834W 8430 01557 0112 +126 +126 121068 073 066 003 00
183300 3420N 06835W 8445 01542 0114 +123 +123 123073 076 065 005 00
183330 3419N 06837W 8422 01561 0110 +122 +122 127069 071 066 010 00

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 272032
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 PM AST SAT SEP 27 2008

...KYLE BECOMES A HURRICANE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A
PART OF THE COAST OF MAINE...

[CrazyC83]

Makes sense. I agree with 65 kt as a blend of the data giving some weight to the SFMR but most weight on the FL winds.

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

The NHC graphics are not designed (yet) to accomodate the Canadian Hurricane Centre's watches and warnings. In reality, there should be a blue and pink line around southwestern Nova Scotia, and a yellow line to the east on both sides of Nova Scotia and in southwestern New Brunswick (I expect those to be extended soon).

[RL3AO]

Why isn't there a TS watch/warning for Cape Cod? NHC forecast has it 95 miles off the coast and the advisory says TS winds go out 110 nm in NW quad.

[CrazyC83]

Why isn't there a TS watch/warning for Cape Cod? NHC forecast has it 95 miles off the coast and the advisory says TS winds go out 110 nm in NW quad.

No idea, but with those numbers, there definitely should be a Tropical Storm Warning for Cape Cod and westward about 30-40 miles.

[jconsor]

NWS Taunton, MA believes sustained winds on Cape Cod and Nantucket will not reach TS force:

WIND GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE ON OUTER CAPE
AND ACK SUN MORNING AS KYLE MAKES HIS CLOSEST APPROACH.
ELSEWHERE...NO WIND PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

However, I believe it would have been prudent to have at least a TS watch, if not a warning, given the current track forecast.

[CrazyC83]

Seems to be an eyewall although very shallow on the southern side:

[wxman57]

Seems to be an eyewall although very shallow on the southern side:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/t ... W.85pc.jpg

More like an exposed center as it's being ripped by southerly shear now. Certainly doesn't look like a hurricane on satellite now. Appears to be moving into the jet stream and merging with the cold front.

[CrazyC83]

Seems to be an eyewall although very shallow on the southern side:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/t ... W.85pc.jpg

More like an exposed center as it's being ripped by southerly shear now. Certainly doesn't look like a hurricane on satellite now. Appears to be moving into the jet stream and merging with the cold front.

It seems that way, and the jet stream and forward motion is giving it stronger winds than its pressure and appearance suggest.

[TheEuropean]

28/0645 UTC 37.4N 69.3W T2.5/3.5 KYLE -- Atlantic Ocean

[bahamaswx]

Post-eclipse pictures yield an ugly looking storm.

[wxman57]

Take a look at the latest surface analysis and find the hurricane. I think NHC is way overestimating Kyle's surface winds. Kyle appears to be losing tropical characteristics. Winds to the northwest of the center just 60-70 miles away are only 10-20 kts. That's going to make it hard for hurricane-force winds to reach Maine (if there are any).

[Thunder44]

They are saying recon has been in this storm and is finding stronger winds. But I haven't seen any reports of recon since yesterday.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe the cloud free area in the low clouds South of the convection (it does appear to be the LLC) is the remnant of an eye.

[wxman57]

They are saying recon has been in this storm and is finding stronger winds. But I haven't seen any reports of recon since yesterday.

Kyle appears to be in transition to an extratropical storm as it merges with the front. Such storms won't carry the winds aloft down to the surface as well. And I really don't trust SFMR winds at all after all the reports of SFMR winds being 10-15kts higher than FL winds with storms this year.

Clearly, Maine has little to worry about from Kyle as far as any hurricane-force wind.

[jconsor]

Take a look at the latest surface analysis and find the hurricane. I think NHC is way overestimating Kyle's surface winds. Kyle appears to be losing tropical characteristics. Winds to the northwest of the center just 60-70 miles away are only 10-20 kts. That's going to make it hard for hurricane-force winds to reach Maine (if there are any).

Wxman,

I agree that NHC is probably overestimating Kyle's winds. Satellite estimates do show a large area of 50 kt+ winds in the eastern quadrant. Buoy reports show that those satellite estimates are probably a bit too high also. However, with recon reporting a central pressure of 991 mb and high pressures nearby to the northeast, it is believable that there are about 60 kt winds in the northeast quadrant.

[Ed Mahmoud]

They are saying recon has been in this storm and is finding stronger winds. But I haven't seen any reports of recon since yesterday.

Kyle appears to be in transition to an extratropical storm as it merges with the front. Such storms won't carry the winds aloft down to the surface as well. And I really don't trust SFMR winds at all after all the reports of SFMR winds being 10-15kts higher than FL winds with storms this year.

Clearly, Maine has little to worry about from Kyle as far as any hurricane-force wind.

True dat, but I'm anti-impressed (if that is the word) on the apparent lack of board interest on Kyle.

I will say, JangMi is a very impressive looking system on satellite, even after about six hours over Taiwan, and Kyle is the weak brother in comparison.