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Ed Mahmoud wrote:One thing in favor of keeping more strength than sub 20ºC water would normally support, a hurricane headed toward NY/NJ/New England would probably start feeling baroclinic enhancement, and as I noted in a thread where I inquired about the difference between baroclinic interactions and extra-tropical transition, some storms, like Hazel, remain powerful far North of the tropics.
Category 5 wrote:Ed Mahmoud wrote:One thing in favor of keeping more strength than sub 20ºC water would normally support, a hurricane headed toward NY/NJ/New England would probably start feeling baroclinic enhancement, and as I noted in a thread where I inquired about the difference between baroclinic interactions and extra-tropical transition, some storms, like Hazel, remain powerful far North of the tropics.
Hell, Ernesto two years ago is a good example. 90mph gusts in Virginia.
Ed they have hills on long island. I know i used to leave there.well small hills.Ed Mahmoud wrote:Category 5 wrote:Ed Mahmoud wrote:One thing in favor of keeping more strength than sub 20ºC water would normally support, a hurricane headed toward NY/NJ/New England would probably start feeling baroclinic enhancement, and as I noted in a thread where I inquired about the difference between baroclinic interactions and extra-tropical transition, some storms, like Hazel, remain powerful far North of the tropics.
Hell, Ernesto two years ago is a good example. 90mph gusts in Virginia.
Hmmm, the Joe Bastardi storm surge into Philadelphia scenario or the Weather Channel Manhattan subways crippled by salt water scenario.
Or maybe 93L never unentangles itself from Haiti and the DR and fizzles scenario.
The last one is best for the US, but worst as far as loss of life potential goes.
I don't know about PHL, but New York City has more topgraphy than people realize, and only a short relocation inland is required to escape the surge zone. Nassau and Suffolk counties don't have as much vertical relief, and would require a larger inland evacuation.
Ed Mahmoud wrote:I grew up in Massapequa. Compared to Florida, I guess those are hills.
I'm just saying compared to Brooklyn, Queens and Manhattan, Nassau and Suffolk don't have much terrain.
I've seen storm surge maps, a Cat 3 puts most of Long Island near/South of Sunrise Highway under water. JFK airport too, potentially, but how many people would be at the airport in a hurricane.
New GFS is well offshore...
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Category 5 wrote:Ed Mahmoud wrote:One thing in favor of keeping more strength than sub 20ºC water would normally support, a hurricane headed toward NY/NJ/New England would probably start feeling baroclinic enhancement, and as I noted in a thread where I inquired about the difference between baroclinic interactions and extra-tropical transition, some storms, like Hazel, remain powerful far North of the tropics.
Hell, Ernesto two years ago is a good example. 90mph gusts in Virginia.
Hmmm, the Joe Bastardi storm surge into Philadelphia scenario or the Weather Channel Manhattan subways crippled by salt water scenario.
Or maybe 93L never unentangles itself from Haiti and the DR and fizzles scenario.
The last one is best for the US, but worst as far as loss of life potential goes.
I don't know about PHL, but New York City has more topgraphy than people realize, and only a short relocation inland is required to escape the surge zone. Nassau and Suffolk counties don't have as much vertical relief, and would require a larger inland evacuation.
CrazyC83 wrote:It seems the models sense a repeat of Juan 5 years ago now?
Code: Select all
168
WHXX04 KWBC 241717
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L
INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 24
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 20.6 70.2 355./ 6.0
6 21.1 70.1 13./ 5.3
12 21.5 69.9 20./ 3.8
18 22.2 69.6 24./ 8.0
24 23.4 69.4 9./11.5
30 24.8 69.3 3./14.3
36 26.2 69.2 4./14.2
42 27.6 69.4 353./14.6
48 29.6 69.8 349./19.5
54 31.9 69.9 356./23.2
60 34.5 70.2 354./26.1
66 37.2 70.5 355./27.2
72 40.0 70.4 2./28.1
78 42.7 70.1 6./27.1
84 45.1 69.4 15./23.9
90 47.4 68.2 28./24.3
96 49.4 65.8 50./25.6
102 51.1 62.9 60./25.5
STORM DISSIPATED AT 102 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
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