ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Models

[HURAKAN]

214
WHXX01 KWBC 220056
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0056 UTC MON SEP 22 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080922 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080922 0000 080922 1200 080923 0000 080923 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 67.5W 19.2N 68.8W 19.9N 70.0W 20.6N 71.2W
BAMD 18.5N 67.5W 19.0N 68.3W 19.4N 69.2W 19.8N 70.0W
BAMM 18.5N 67.5W 19.2N 68.6W 19.7N 69.5W 20.3N 70.4W
LBAR 18.5N 67.5W 19.4N 68.5W 20.0N 69.6W 20.4N 70.6W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080924 0000 080925 0000 080926 0000 080927 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.2N 72.1W 22.9N 72.9W 25.0N 72.7W 27.5N 70.3W
BAMD 20.5N 70.7W 22.9N 71.4W 26.3N 71.2W 30.4N 69.4W
BAMM 20.9N 71.0W 22.7N 71.6W 25.3N 71.0W 28.3N 68.6W
LBAR 20.8N 71.7W 21.7N 73.6W 22.9N 75.1W 24.6N 75.5W
SHIP 57KTS 66KTS 72KTS 68KTS
DSHP 57KTS 66KTS 72KTS 68KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 67.5W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 17.3N LONM12 = 67.0W DIRM12 = 331DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 16.1N LONM24 = 66.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[yzerfan]

Kyle 2002 is one of my favorite storms- a really long tracker that was a relatively pleasant guest when he finally did arrive (only about $5 million in damages) and he generated some great discos.

Track for that storm was pretty freaky and the conditions that led to it were very different than what we've got going on right now.

[carolina_73]

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 221255
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1255 UTC MON SEP 22 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080922 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080922 1200 080923 0000 080923 1200 080924 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.7N 68.4W 19.3N 69.9W 19.8N 71.4W 20.3N 72.3W
BAMD 18.7N 68.4W 19.1N 69.2W 19.5N 70.1W 20.1N 70.9W
BAMM 18.7N 68.4W 19.0N 69.6W 19.3N 70.8W 19.7N 71.7W
LBAR 18.7N 68.4W 19.2N 69.5W 19.7N 70.5W 20.2N 71.5W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080924 1200 080925 1200 080926 1200 080927 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.9N 73.1W 22.9N 72.6W 26.3N 69.5W 31.3N 66.1W
BAMD 20.9N 71.6W 24.1N 71.9W 28.4N 70.7W 34.1N 66.2W
BAMM 20.1N 72.3W 22.5N 72.3W 26.7N 70.0W 32.2N 66.0W
LBAR 21.0N 72.3W 22.9N 73.6W 25.1N 74.4W 27.2N 74.7W
SHIP 57KTS 74KTS 87KTS 89KTS
DSHP 36KTS 53KTS 66KTS 68KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.7N LONCUR = 68.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 18.2N LONM12 = 67.6W DIRM12 = 312DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 17.3N LONM24 = 67.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[gatorcane]

I would not put much stock in these models just yet -- alot of thing have to happen for 93L to shoot northward. The key player is some cut-off low that is forecasted to develop over FL and the Bahamas -- I don't even know where the models are originating this low from....

now 93L appears to be drifting more West.

[jinftl]

Without a defined center, model runs are speculative at best. That said, a Carolinas hit doesn't at all seem a certainty....most models seem to indicate a path that would take 93L between the Carolinas and Bermuda.....with a possible threat to the northeast U.S......still all very uncertain.

[Sanibel]

GFDL is a model for stronger well-developed systems. It is probably off for 93L for now with no well-developed center. There does look to be a wedge of High pushing 93 WNW for now at the lower level.

[gatorcane]

as I continue to see 93L's convection push SW and losing lattitude (not gaining)...I wonder if this is a case where all the models are wrong at the moment.

[Stormcenter]

as I continue to see 93L's convection push SW and losing lattitude (not gaining)...I wonder if this is a case where all the models are wrong at the moment.

Ultimately 93L will either not develop or head Northward somewhere. It's not heading anywhere near the GOM.

[storm4u]

fwiw 12z gfs has a hit on cape cod between hr 114 and 120!

[Ed Mahmoud]

fwiw 12z gfs has a hit on cape cod between hr 114 and 120!

Considering the resolution of a global model, 20 m/s (~40 knots) is likely underdone by a significant factor!

[jimvb]

The 12Z GFDL and HWRF show a Cat 1 hurricane hitting just to the west of New York City - that's where the center appears to be heading. It could happen tomorrow.

By the way, the posts I make in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneFreak]

That is weird this storm appears to be moving a lot more west than north.That doesn't look to good because then it will get closer to the Bahamas and they will get affected.When will this turn north because if it keeps on moving at the western direction I see this could be a little worry for me here in south Florida.

[storm4u]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[jinftl]

yesterday this looked like a carolina storm....now the models are well east of there...i would watch the trend more than specific landfall points going 4 or 5 days out.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200893_model.html

[Recurve]

That is weird this storm appears to be moving a lot more west than north.That doesn't look to good because then it will get closer to the Bahamas and they will get affected.When will this turn north because if it keeps on moving at the western direction I see this could be a little worry for me here in south Florida.

That's because IMHO it's more of a wave than a storm. Moving typically westward and getting sheared with convection removed to the east.

[Lowpressure]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200893_model.html

This system will not go due north for 1500 miles. There is going to be a fat low off the SC coast and a high in the Atlantic. It may end up in NE somehow, but way too early to be picking any possible landfall point. It needs to develop a LLC or it does not matter at all.

[sunnyday]

Local newspaper, the Sun Sentinel (Ft. Lauderdale) says it looks like Fla. won't be bothered by this storm. It's early to say that, isn't it, although the models don't have it coming that way. Isn't it true that the early models change quite a bit ?

[Category 5]

I have a shore trip planned this Saturday, if one of a few of these runs pans out, I might have to cancel it.

[Jinkers]

Local newspaper, the Sun Sentinel (Ft. Lauderdale) says it looks like Fla. won't be bothered by this storm. It's early to say that, isn't it, although the models don't have it coming that way. Isn't it true that the early models change quite a bit ?

Channel 10 said it was definitly not a threat here.