ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Models

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cycloneye
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ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 18, 2008 8:06 pm

626
WHXX01 KWBC 190100
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080919 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080919 0000 080919 1200 080920 0000 080920 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.9N 59.8W 13.4N 61.8W 14.5N 63.8W 15.9N 65.9W
BAMD 12.9N 59.8W 13.2N 61.1W 13.8N 62.4W 14.5N 63.7W
BAMM 12.9N 59.8W 13.3N 61.3W 14.1N 62.8W 15.1N 64.5W
LBAR 12.9N 59.8W 13.3N 61.1W 14.1N 62.7W 15.1N 64.5W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 33KTS 42KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 33KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080921 0000 080922 0000 080923 0000 080924 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 67.9W 19.8N 72.1W 21.1N 75.9W 21.7N 79.2W
BAMD 15.5N 65.2W 17.5N 68.1W 18.7N 70.2W 19.0N 71.5W
BAMM 16.5N 66.2W 18.8N 69.4W 20.0N 72.2W 20.4N 74.7W
LBAR 16.4N 66.1W 18.9N 68.3W 19.1N 69.3W 18.3N 68.9W
SHIP 54KTS 66KTS 71KTS 73KTS
DSHP 54KTS 51KTS 41KTS 38KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.9N LONCUR = 59.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 58.8W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 57.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Image
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RainWind

#2 Postby RainWind » Thu Sep 18, 2008 8:22 pm

Gosh, the same areas keep getting hit. DR, Haiti and Cuba have really seen it this season! I hope the shear monster eats this one up! I know that they could use a much deserved rest. RW
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models Discussion

#3 Postby terrapintransit » Thu Sep 18, 2008 8:32 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models Discussion

#4 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 18, 2008 8:47 pm

What a surprise to see models moving a system over Hispanola.
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#5 Postby stormchazer » Thu Sep 18, 2008 9:19 pm

First model runs though have to be taken with a "grain of salt".
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Weatherfreak000

#6 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Sep 18, 2008 9:22 pm

Ahhh...but look at the model support....or lack of support frankly because if the LBAR were the models we were looking at...I think it's safe to say even the armchair wishcasters could be better.


Saying that...with no good model support it's hard to defend 93L's development...I suppose we'll see what happens.
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Re:

#7 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 18, 2008 9:24 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Ahhh...but look at the model support....or lack of support frankly because if the LBAR were the models we were looking at...I think it's safe to say even the armchair wishcasters could be better.


Saying that...with no good model support it's hard to defend 93L's development...I suppose we'll see what happens.


When GFDL and HWRF come with their first runs (Around 1:30 AM EDT) ,lets see how they have 93L in terms of intensity.
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MiamiensisWx

Re: Re:

#8 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu Sep 18, 2008 9:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:Lets see when GFDL and HWRF come with their first runs (Around 1:30 AM EDT) ,lets see how they have 93L in terms of intensity.

The performance of the GFDL/HWRF generally ranges from mediocre to horrendous, so I wouldn't consider these ones as "reliable" in all synoptic/thermodynamic cases.

We don't even have a defined LLC, so any model "initializations" should be taken with a prodigious grain of salt.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 18, 2008 9:37 pm

GFDL was one of the best performers on Ike.
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MiamiensisWx

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models Discussion

#10 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu Sep 18, 2008 9:43 pm

cycloneye wrote:GFDL was one of the best performers on Ike.

That's a legitimate point, but we had a mature TC, and the operational GFS handled the synoptic pattern adeptly at times. The Euro performed MUCH better in regards to Ike's track, and it was more consistent as well.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models Discussion

#11 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 18, 2008 9:44 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:
cycloneye wrote:GFDL was one of the best performers on Ike.

That's a legitimate point, but we had a mature TC, and the operational GFS handled the synoptic pattern adeptly at times. The Euro performed MUCH better in regards to Ike's track, and it was more consistent as well.



I agree....the Euro latched on to Ike and never waivered. It was the trend setter for all the reliable models thereafter....
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#12 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 18, 2008 9:47 pm

Geez, that would be FIVE hits in less than a month for poor Haiti! Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Ike and now Kyle???
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Models Discussion

#13 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 18, 2008 9:57 pm

Wait until there's a better center flare for initial on models.

Crazy year for d-mins.
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Models Discussion

#14 Postby Duddy » Thu Sep 18, 2008 11:53 pm

This one have a good chance of becoming something more?
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Models Discussion

#15 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Sep 19, 2008 12:41 am

Hope the sheer monster destroys 93L.
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Models Discussion

#16 Postby Fego » Fri Sep 19, 2008 1:24 am

Well Puerto Rico is in the bulls eye according to this first run (HWRF & GFDL). Obviously this may change later on.

HWRF
http://img171.imageshack.us/my.php?image=93lhwrfix0.png

GFDL
http://img171.imageshack.us/my.php?image=93lgfdlwx3.png
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Rainband

Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Models Discussion

#17 Postby Rainband » Fri Sep 19, 2008 1:48 am

Hopefully shear ends this before it gets started.
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#18 Postby O Town » Fri Sep 19, 2008 6:20 am

Wow, can't believe GFDL and HWRF both develop this into a significant system.
CMC is also seeing something.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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Re:

#19 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 19, 2008 7:13 am

O Town wrote:Wow, can't believe GFDL and HWRF both develop this into a significant system.
CMC is also seeing something.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


When I see the GFDL developing and not dissipating an invest that usually gives it better odds of developing.
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Models Discussion

#20 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 19, 2008 7:16 am

WHXX01 KWBC 191211
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1211 UTC FRI SEP 19 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080919 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080919 1200 080920 0000 080920 1200 080921 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 63.5W 13.7N 65.6W 14.7N 67.7W 15.9N 69.6W
BAMD 13.3N 63.5W 13.6N 64.7W 14.1N 66.0W 14.9N 67.5W
BAMM 13.3N 63.5W 13.5N 65.0W 14.2N 66.8W 15.1N 68.7W
LBAR 13.3N 63.5W 13.9N 65.1W 15.0N 67.1W 16.4N 69.1W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 33KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080921 1200 080922 1200 080923 1200 080924 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 71.9W 18.9N 76.1W 19.9N 80.3W 20.3N 83.2W
BAMD 15.7N 69.0W 16.9N 72.0W 17.4N 74.3W 17.5N 76.1W
BAMM 16.1N 70.7W 17.6N 74.4W 18.2N 77.8W 18.6N 80.2W
LBAR 17.6N 70.9W 19.4N 73.4W 19.1N 75.2W 18.1N 76.3W
SHIP 41KTS 53KTS 61KTS 64KTS
DSHP 41KTS 53KTS 46KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 63.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.1N LONM12 = 61.6W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 59.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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