WPAC JANGMI: Tropical Storm - Discussion

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Chacor
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#121 Postby Chacor » Sat Sep 27, 2008 9:53 am

WDPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 19W WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 19W HAS MAINTAINED
STRENGTH WHILE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. ANIMATED IN-
FRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271134Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTED A ROUND
18 NM EYE WITH AN INTENSE, SYMMETRIC CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AND
EXCELLENT CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER ALL QUADRANTS. THE PRIMARY MODELS
HAVE SHOWN INCREASING AGREEMENT WITH A RECURVATURE SCENARIO NEAR TAU
48, AND INCREASED SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
B. THE LATEST 500 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS A POLEWARD ORIENTED SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, AND A WEAKER
EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR NORTHWEST OF TAIWAN EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL CHINA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ANNULAR CHARAC-
TERISTICS WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION NOW ISOLATED TO A BROAD BAND
OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS EXCEL-
LENT CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND 12-HOUR STORM MOTION WHICH
ARE BASED ON MICROWAVE AND INFRARED EYE FIXES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS FROM RJTD AND PGTW, AMSUB
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 138 KNOTS, AND EXCELLENT AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
REPORTS OF 130 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED TRACK, AND NOW CALLS FOR A RECURVATURE SCENARIO NEAR TAU
48 WITH SUBSEQUENT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
B. THROUGH TAU 36, STY 19W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL STR
POSITIONED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. STY 19W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES TAIWAN AND TRACKS OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SST
AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF
TAIPEI NEAR TAU 24, AND SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
LAND BEFORE EMERGING INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT NEAR TAU 36. NEAR TAU 48,
STY 19W WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AND RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE STEER-
ING RIDGE ERODES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TRANSITING MID-LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION. ANALYSIS OF THE MODEL FIELDS INDI-
CATES THAT THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS WEAK AND ZONAL IN NATURE WHICH
DOES NOT SUPPORT A SHARP RECURVATURE SCENARIO. THUS, THE CURRENT FORE-
CAST IS HEDGED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND JGSM SOLUTIONS AND DOES NOT FAVOR
THE SHARP RE-CURVE INDICATED BY EGRR, NGPS AND WBAR.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BACK OVER THE
OPEN WATER OF THE EAST CHINA SEA, IT IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AND
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) RESULTING FROM
INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH TAU 120. DURING THIS
PERIOD, A LARGE INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY LOWER OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT, SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT UNDERGOES
ETT. IN GENERAL, THE EXTENDED FORECAST FAVORS THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE
MODEL AIDS (GFS, WBAR, EGRR, JGSM) WHICH ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN MODEL TRACKER
SPREAD AFTER TAU 72 WHICH LOWERS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND
EXTENT OF THE RECURVE TRACK IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
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#122 Postby Frank2 » Sat Sep 27, 2008 9:59 am

Jangmi (Jang-me) is now forecast to make landfall just south of Taipei (台北市) around 12Z tomorrow (Sunday) as a strong Cat 3, so, not a good situation for those folks...
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Re: WPAC JANGMI - Typhoon: Discussion

#123 Postby Sanibel » Sat Sep 27, 2008 9:59 am

Now that's a cyclone!
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#124 Postby Frank2 » Sat Sep 27, 2008 10:02 am

It sure is - here's the current IR photo:

http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/satsh ... 30sair.jpg

we can only imagine what is going on in Taipei as we speak...
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#125 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 27, 2008 10:03 am

163 kt FL = 147 kt at the surface.

Since it likely is still strengthening, I think 150 kt for the current intensity as a result.
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#126 Postby Chacor » Sat Sep 27, 2008 10:16 am

HKO is following recon, it looks like.

Bulletin issued at 22:43 HKT 27/Sep/2008

Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 271200 UTC, Typhoon Jangmi (0815) with central pressure
900 hectopascals was centred within 30 nautical miles of
two one point three degrees north (21.3 N) one two four
point five degrees east (124.5 E) and is forecast to move
northwest at about 12 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 125 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 240 nautical miles.
Radius of over 47 knot winds 120 nautical miles.
Radius of over 63 knot winds 60 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 360 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 281200 UTC
Two three point nine degrees north (23.9 N)
One two one point five degrees east (121.5 E)
Maximum winds 95 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 291200 UTC
Two six point two degrees north (26.2 N)
One two zero point eight degrees east (120.8 E)
Maximum winds 60 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 301200 UTC
Two six point eight degrees north (26.8 N)
One two two point zero degrees east (122.0 E)
Maximum winds 40 knots.
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#127 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 27, 2008 10:21 am

900mb? Whoa!!!
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Re:

#128 Postby Chacor » Sat Sep 27, 2008 10:25 am

CrazyC83 wrote:900mb? Whoa!!!


Recon found a lowest extrap pressure of 901.2 hPa.
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#129 Postby Chacor » Sat Sep 27, 2008 10:57 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 271500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0815 JANGMI (0815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271500UTC 21.6N 123.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 281500UTC 24.9N 121.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 291200UTC 27.3N 121.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 301200UTC 29.3N 124.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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#130 Postby RL3AO » Sat Sep 27, 2008 11:01 am

What a TC. Storm of the year in terms of intensity and looks.


And if that was recons final flight in the basin, what a way to go out.
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Re:

#131 Postby Chacor » Sat Sep 27, 2008 11:13 am

RL3AO wrote:What a TC. Storm of the year in terms of intensity and looks.


And if that was recons final flight in the basin, what a way to go out.


Was the final flight for the C-130; P3 is scheduled for one more flight on Monday for 99W.
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#132 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 27, 2008 1:33 pm

27/1430 UTC 21.5N 123.9E T7.0/7.0 JANGMI -- West Pacific Ocean

Still holding its nightmarish strength.
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Re: WPAC JANGMI - Typhoon: Discussion

#133 Postby P.K. » Sat Sep 27, 2008 2:06 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0815 JANGMI (0815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271800UTC 21.7N 123.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 281800UTC 25.1N 121.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 291800UTC 27.9N 121.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 301800UTC 29.6N 125.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Image
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#134 Postby btangy » Sat Sep 27, 2008 3:47 pm

Taiwan has gotten hit hard this year. If that forecast track verifies, then it's pretty much the same area that got blasted by Typhoon Sinlaku a couple weeks ago.
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#135 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 27, 2008 3:48 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 19W (JANGMI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (JANGMI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 21.8N 123.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 123.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.1N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 24.3N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 25.6N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 26.9N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 29.4N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 31.4N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 33.0N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 123.4E.
SUPER TYPHOON 19W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 271800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z,
281500Z AND 282100Z.//
NNNN
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Re:

#136 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 27, 2008 3:49 pm

btangy wrote:Taiwan has gotten hit hard this year. If that forecast track verifies, then it's pretty much the same area that got blasted by Typhoon Sinlaku a couple weeks ago.


It appears the storm has peaked (thankfully, but probably too late).
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Re: WPAC JANGMI - Typhoon: Discussion

#137 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Sep 27, 2008 3:52 pm

Nice little bend to the North, but it looks like that was expected and it'll bend back West.

Color Loop
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#138 Postby RL3AO » Sat Sep 27, 2008 5:04 pm

Image

Looks like a second eyewall starting to form.
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Re: Re:

#139 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Sep 27, 2008 5:19 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:It appears the storm has peaked (thankfully, but probably too late).

Huh? A large Cat 2/3/4 would still produce extensive to severe wind damage, and even TS/Category 1 systems have produced copious precipitation over the island...

I would argue that a large TC (experiencing an ERC and corresponding increase in wind radii) could be worse than a small, narrow, intense TC. Most TC related deaths in Taiwan are related to flooding from heavy precipitation.
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Re: Re:

#140 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Sep 27, 2008 5:35 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:Huh? A large Cat 2/3/4 would still produce extensive to severe wind damage, and even TS/Category 1 systems have produced copious precipitation over the island...

I would argue that a large TC (experiencing an ERC and corresponding increase in wind radii) could be worse than a small, narrow, intense TC. Most TC related deaths in Taiwan are related to flooding from heavy precipitation.


Well said! I went through a large hurricane called Ike. A large hurricane is torture of the WORST kind. At least a small hurricane, you don't have to put up with endless howling winds and sheets of blinding rain that burn into memory and cannot get the images of it out of your head for life. :( :cry:
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