WPAC JANGMI: Tropical Storm - Discussion

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Chacor
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#161 Postby Chacor » Sun Sep 28, 2008 10:25 am

Given it's still a potent 85-kt typhoon sitting over them, school had better be cancelled.
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Re: WPAC JANGMI - Typhoon: Discussion

#162 Postby HurricaneRobert » Sun Sep 28, 2008 10:39 am

They get hit by a large category 4 cyclone, they cancel school for a day, and power remains on. Take that Ike.
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Re: WPAC JANGMI - Typhoon: Discussion

#163 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 28, 2008 11:39 am

HurricaneRobert wrote:They get hit by a large category 4 cyclone, they cancel school for a day, and power remains on. Take that Ike.


Nowhere in the Atlantic Basin has anything that strong. Taiwan is about the most prepared place on the planet for such extreme storms.
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Re: WPAC JANGMI - Typhoon: Discussion

#164 Postby P.K. » Sun Sep 28, 2008 12:11 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Hard to tell with the eye filling on landfall, but is Jangmi bending Southwest?


After landfall it turned SW and then S before sitting just north of Hualien for three hours. It then started to move north and then NW. It hasn't moved that much really since landfall.
Last edited by P.K. on Sun Sep 28, 2008 12:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC JANGMI - Typhoon: Discussion

#165 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sun Sep 28, 2008 12:26 pm

Hey guys.

The show is more or less over with Jangmi here in Hualien. Due to the perilous Hualien - Suao highway dug into the side of a 12,000ft mountain range I was unable to relocate further north from Hualien to nab the eyewall of Jangmi.

However I'm not disappointed because it allowed me to document the most insane storm surge waves I've ever seen in my life. They were MASSIVE! Here's a video of the madness, enjoy:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1s9AUB36t2A
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Re: Re:

#166 Postby pojo » Sun Sep 28, 2008 5:36 pm

Chacor wrote:
RL3AO wrote:What a TC. Storm of the year in terms of intensity and looks.


And if that was recons final flight in the basin, what a way to go out.


Was the final flight for the C-130; P3 is scheduled for one more flight on Monday for 99W.


our maintenance guys can't wait for 5305 & 5306 to get back to Keesler.
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Re: Re:

#167 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun Sep 28, 2008 7:10 pm

pojo wrote:
Chacor wrote:
RL3AO wrote:What a TC. Storm of the year in terms of intensity and looks.


And if that was recons final flight in the basin, what a way to go out.


Was the final flight for the C-130; P3 is scheduled for one more flight on Monday for 99W.


our maintenance guys can't wait for 5305 & 5306 to get back to Keesler.



They going to island hop through the tropical Pacific, or make a few stops flying the Northern route through Alaska. I was a passenger on a chartered Flying Tigers Airlines (which until then I assumed just flew cargo) from LAX to NAS Cubi Point, and even in a 747, the flight from Anchorage to Okinawa was a long one, I'm guessing well over six hours. In flight movie: 'The Natural' with Robert Redford. March, 1985.
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Re: WPAC JANGMI - Typhoon: Discussion

#168 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Sep 28, 2008 7:34 pm

I wish that Japan the second biggest economy on earth would buy a fleet of recon planes for the western Pacific. If not then China being the third could??? Come you get some recon planes you country's....
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#169 Postby Chacor » Mon Sep 29, 2008 2:12 am

Really torn up but still a 50 kt STS.

WTPQ20 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0815 JANGMI (0815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290600UTC 26.4N 121.1E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 300600UTC 29.0N 123.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 010600UTC 30.2N 130.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE E 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 020600UTC 32.0N 142.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE E 26KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Image
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Re: WPAC JANGMI - Typhoon: Discussion

#170 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Sep 29, 2008 2:46 am

Based on quickscat data it is still likely a 50-55 knot system. It got its butt kicked in from going over Taiwan.
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#171 Postby Chacor » Mon Sep 29, 2008 9:33 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0815 JANGMI (0815) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 26.9N 121.8E FAIR
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 301200UTC 29.4N 125.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 011200UTC 30.9N 132.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 021200UTC 32.0N 142.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE E 21KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =
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#172 Postby Chacor » Mon Sep 29, 2008 1:58 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0815 JANGMI (0815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291800UTC 27.4N 122.4E FAIR
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 301800UTC 29.7N 126.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 011800UTC 31.4N 134.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 021800UTC 31.9N 143.6E 250NM 70%
MOVE E 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
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Re: Re:

#173 Postby pojo » Mon Sep 29, 2008 5:56 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
pojo wrote:our maintenance guys can't wait for 5305 & 5306 to get back to Keesler.



They going to island hop through the tropical Pacific, or make a few stops flying the Northern route through Alaska. I was a passenger on a chartered Flying Tigers Airlines (which until then I assumed just flew cargo) from LAX to NAS Cubi Point, and even in a 747, the flight from Anchorage to Okinawa was a long one, I'm guessing well over six hours. In flight movie: 'The Natural' with Robert Redford. March, 1985.


Island Hop.
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Re: WPAC JANGMI - Tropical Storm: Discussion

#174 Postby pojo » Mon Sep 29, 2008 6:07 pm

our guys had excellent pictures from Jangmi.
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#175 Postby Chacor » Mon Sep 29, 2008 8:46 pm

One can only guess, Pojo!

WTPQ20 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0815 JANGMI (0815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 28.8N 123.7E FAIR
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 30.8N 130.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 020000UTC 32.3N 139.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE E 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 030000UTC 33.0N 148.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE E 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =
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#176 Postby Chacor » Tue Sep 30, 2008 12:28 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 300300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0815 JANGMI (0815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300300UTC 29.2N 124.5E FAIR
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 010300UTC 31.0N 131.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE E 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 020000UTC 32.3N 139.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE E 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 030000UTC 33.0N 148.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE E 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =
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#177 Postby Chacor » Tue Sep 30, 2008 4:23 am

JTWC's operational best-track for Jangmi now indicates its peak for Jangmi to be 145 kts (165 mph) at 06z on 27 September:

1908092218 104N1416E 15
1908092300 106N1408E 15
1908092306 107N1402E 20
1908092312 109N1395E 25
1908092318 114N1386E 30
1908092400 118N1379E 35
1908092406 122N1372E 45
1908092412 127N1363E 45
1908092418 132N1351E 50
1908092500 139N1336E 55
1908092500 139N1336E 55
1908092506 145N1324E 65
1908092506 145N1324E 65
1908092512 146N1314E 70
1908092512 146N1314E 70
1908092512 146N1314E 70
1908092518 151N1303E 80
1908092518 151N1303E 80
1908092518 151N1303E 80
1908092600 159N1297E 90
1908092600 159N1297E 90
1908092600 159N1297E 90
1908092606 169N1289E 95
1908092606 169N1289E 95
1908092606 169N1289E 95
1908092612 178N1280E 105
1908092612 178N1280E 105
1908092612 178N1280E 105
1908092618 187N1272E 120
1908092618 187N1272E 120
1908092618 187N1272E 120
1908092700 197N1264E 135
1908092700 197N1264E 135
1908092700 197N1264E 135
1908092706 207N1256E 145
1908092706 207N1256E 145
1908092706 207N1256E 145

1908092712 213N1244E 140
1908092712 213N1244E 140
1908092712 213N1244E 140
1908092718 218N1237E 135
1908092718 218N1237E 135
1908092718 218N1237E 135
1908092800 229N1232E 130
1908092800 229N1232E 130
1908092800 229N1232E 130
1908092806 239N1224E 115
1908092806 239N1224E 115
1908092806 239N1224E 115
1908092809 247N1217E 115
1908092809 247N1217E 115
1908092809 247N1217E 115
1908092812 241N1214E 85
1908092812 241N1214E 85
1908092812 241N1214E 85
1908092818 248N1215E 75
1908092818 248N1215E 75
1908092818 248N1215E 75
1908092900 257N1211E 60
1908092900 257N1211E 60
1908092906 267N1214E 55
1908092906 267N1214E 55
1908092912 273N1221E 55
1908092912 273N1221E 55
1908092918 278N1227E 45
1908093000 287N1238E 45
1908093006 296N1250E 45
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#178 Postby Chacor » Tue Sep 30, 2008 7:57 am

Still forecast to restrengthen.

WTPQ20 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0815 JANGMI (0815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 29.7N 126.4E FAIR
MOVE E 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 011200UTC 30.9N 135.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE E 20KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 021200UTC 30.8N 143.9E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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#179 Postby Chacor » Tue Sep 30, 2008 11:07 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 301500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0815 JANGMI (0815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301500UTC 29.7N 127.2E FAIR
MOVE E 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 011500UTC 30.9N 136.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE E 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 021200UTC 30.8N 143.9E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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#180 Postby RL3AO » Tue Sep 30, 2008 11:20 am

Not surprised they upped it to category 5 since it certainly was one.
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