ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Advisories

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
2100 UTC THU SEP 25 2008

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 68.3W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 68.3W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 68.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 25.2N 68.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.7N 68.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 34.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 43.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 50.0N 60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 53.0N 53.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 68.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

WTNT41 KNHC 252033
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS PLAGUED PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BETTER-DEFINED LOW CLOUD
CIRCULATION THAN EARLIER TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL
A BIT ELONGATED...THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED 1000 FT WINDS AS HIGH
AS 51 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE THE
CYCLONE IS BEING CLASSIFIED AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR THIS
FIRST ADVISORY. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
THE STRENGTHENING OF KYLE BUT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...MORE OR LESS AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH OR 010/7. HOWEVER THE
EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IS PROBABLY DUE TO SOME REFORMATION OF
THE CENTER TOWARD THE DEEP CONVECTION. A MAINLY NORTHWARD TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER LOW OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. AND A DEVELOPING HIGH TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. THROUGH
THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS REFLECTED IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK ENSEMBLE AND A LITTLE
TO THE WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR KYLE IN CASE THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 23.5N 68.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 25.2N 68.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 27.7N 68.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 31.0N 69.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 34.5N 69.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 43.0N 67.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 50.0N 60.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 30/1800Z 53.0N 53.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[CrazyC83]

WOCN31 CWHX 260000
INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT THURSDAY 25 SEPTEMBER
2008.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE IN MIAMI IS NOW ISSUING BULLETINS
ON TROPICAL STORM KYLE. KYLE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
APPROACHES CANADIAN WATERS BEFORE PASSING THROUGH THE MARITIMES
ON SUNDAY.

A COMPLETE BULLETIN PREPARED BY THE CANADIAN HURICANE CENTRE
WILL BE ISSUED AT 03H00 ADT 26 SEPTEMBER ONCE MORE DATA IS
GATHERED AND PROCESSED.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

END CAMPBELL

[cycloneye]

WTNT21 KNHC 260257
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
0300 UTC FRI SEP 26 2008

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 68.0W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 15SW 15NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 68.0W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 68.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.5N 68.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.2N 68.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 32.4N 68.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 36.3N 68.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 44.5N 65.5W...INLAND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 50.0N 60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 68.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
WTNT41 KNHC 260257
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WHICH WAS INVESTIGATING KYLE
EARLIER THIS EVENING MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF
994 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT. THERE WERE ALSO A
FEW SFMR RETRIEVALS NEAR 55 KT...BUT THE FLIGHT METEOROLOGIST ON
BOARD ESTIMATED THAT THESE MEASUREMENTS WERE LIKELY ABOUT 10 KT TOO
HIGH. IN ADDITION...A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION USING THE SHEAR PATTERN
WOULD YIELD A DATA-T NUMBER OF 3.0. ALL OF THIS INFORMATION
UNANIMOUSLY SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.

THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIX INDICATES THAT KYLE HAS ACCELERATED AND IS
NOW MOVING AT 010/11. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD BETWEEN A
MID-LEVEL HIGH JUST EAST OF BERMUDA AND THE LARGE CUT-OFF LOW NEAR
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
EXCEPTIONAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT
WAS REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

KYLE IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AS
DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...DURING WHICH ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH AFTER THAT AND KYLE WILL
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES OVER WARM WATERS AT A FAIRLY SPEEDY CLIP. THE FORECAST
INTENSITY IS CLOSE TO THAT SHOWN BY THE LGEM...HWRF...FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...AND CONTINUITY. HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS
MAKE KYLE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. KYLE WILL THEN CROSS NORTH OF THE
GULF STREAM AFTER 48 HOURS AND SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD BEGIN ONCE
KYLE MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 72 HOURS WITH THE
PROCESS COMPLETED BY 96 HOURS. BY DAY 5...THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR KYLE IN CASE THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK. IN
ADDITION...PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 24.8N 68.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 26.5N 68.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 29.2N 68.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 32.4N 68.9W 65 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 36.3N 68.3W 70 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 44.5N 65.5W 60 KT...INLAND...NOVA SCOTIA
96HR VT 30/0000Z 50.0N 60.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[HURAKAN]

624
WTNT31 KNHC 261148
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KYLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
800 AM AST FRI SEP 26 2008

...KYLE NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES REGION SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST OR ABOUT 500
MILES...805 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

KYLE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WEST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS... AND KYLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA
THROUGH SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...26.0 N...68.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

433
WTNT31 KNHC 261433
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 26 2008

...KYLE CONTINUING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES REGION SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT 475
MILES...760 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND KYLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA THROUGH
SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...26.4 N...68.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[yzerfan]

Environment Canada is issuing product on TS Kyle:

WOCN31 CWHX 260600
TROPICAL STORM KYLE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT
FRIDAY 26 SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT

... TROPICAL STORM KYLE CONTINUES TO DEVELOPE...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.2 N AND LONGITUDE 68.1 W... ABOUT 355 NAUTICAL MILES OR 660 KM
EAST NORTHEAST OF COCKBURN BAHAMAS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 994 MB. KYLE IS MOVING NORTH AT 14 KNOTS... 26 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 26 3.00 AM 25.2N 68.1W 994 45 83
SEP 26 3.00 PM 27.9N 68.5W 992 55 102
SEP 27 3.00 AM 30.8N 68.8W 988 60 111
SEP 27 3.00 PM 34.3N 68.6W 984 65 120
SEP 28 3.00 AM 38.5N 67.6W 980 70 130
SEP 28 3.00 PM 42.1N 66.5W 987 65 120
SEP 29 3.00 AM 45.9N 64.3W 997 50 93
SEP 29 3.00 PM 48.7N 61.6W 997 50 93
SEP 30 3.00 AM 50.9N 57.8W 1000 45 83
SEP 30 3.00 PM 51.8N 53.7W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 01 3.00 AM 52.3N 49.1W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO BE UPDATED FOR THE MARITMES.
NO WARNINGS ISSUED YET.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR LOCATION OF KYLE.
NO WARNINGS ISSUED YET.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST.
CIRCULATION CENTRE DIFFCULT TO DISCERN. HOWEVER QUICKSCAT
SHOWS GOOD APPRXIMATE 00Z POSITION. HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT PROVIDES SURFACE WINDS AND CENTRAL PRESSURE.


B. PROGNOSTIC
WE SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM MIAMI'S TRACK THIS EARLY IN THE
GAME ESPECIALLY SINCE ALL MODELS SHOW GOOD CONCENSUS. EXPECT
70 KNOT HURRICANE CROSSING INTO OUR RESPONSE ZONE. TRANSITION
BEGINS THEREAFTER AS KYLE CROSSES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM.
HOW RAPIDLY KYLE WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE NOVA SCOTIA
COAST IS PROBLEMATIC DUE TO COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE DECOUPLING WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
AT 1000 FEET AT LEAST. HENCE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KYLE
WILL PRODUCE HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS WHEN IT REACHES LANDFALL.
THEREAFTER KYLE WILL WEAKEN DUE FRICTIONAL RETARDATION BEFORE
CROSSING INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE MONDAY MORNING.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
GIVEN KYLE'S CURRENT TRACK.. WIND WILL BE THE ISSUE FOR NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT OVER NORTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND. RAIN WILL BE
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR NEW BRUNSWICK AND WESTERN PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.
RAIN WELL AHEAD OF KYLE WILL DROP 40 MM AND LESS OVER NEW
BRUNSWICK UP TO SATURDAY EVENING.. MOSTLY DUE TO THE MOISTURE
REMANTS OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTRE OVER THE CAROLINAS. MOISTURE
FROM THIS LOW IS DRIVEN NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY.. IT IS THIS WESTERN FLANK WHICH
WILL GUIDE KYLE. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT AMOUNTS
BUT KYLE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 50 MM SINCE
KYLE WILL BE MOVING NEARLY 25 KNOTS AS IT PASSES THROUGH
THE MARITIMES.

D. MARINE WEATHER
GIVEN THE SPEED OF KYLE.. OUR WIND RADII FORECAST MAY BE A
BIT EARLY WITH ARRIVAL OF SURFACE WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. AS MORE DATA BECOMES AVAIBLE.. WE WILL SHARPEN
THE PENCIL ON THESE RADII.


PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
26/06Z 170 170 60 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
26/18Z 180 180 120 120 60 60 30 30 0 0 0 0
27/06Z 180 210 150 120 90 120 90 90 0 0 0 0
27/18Z 180 240 210 180 90 150 120 120 30 30 30 30
28/06Z 180 240 240 180 90 150 150 120 45 45 45 45
28/18Z 150 240 180 120 45 150 90 60 15 30 15 0
29/06Z 90 180 90 60 0 90 30 0 0 0 0 0
29/18Z 60 180 60 30 0 90 30 0 0 0 0 0
30/06Z 60 150 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/18Z 60 150 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
01/06Z 60 150 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

END CAMPBELL

WOCN31 CWHX 261200
TROPICAL STORM KYLE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT
FRIDAY 26 SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

... KYLE TO REACH MARITIMES ON SUNDAY ...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
26.0 N AND LONGITUDE 68.7 W... ABOUT 428 NAUTICAL MILES OR 794 KM
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 50
KNOTS... 93 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 997 MB. KYLE IS MOVING
NORTH AT 11 KNOTS... 20 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 26 9.00 AM 26.0N 68.7W 997 50 93
SEP 26 9.00 PM 29.1N 69.2W 990 60 111
SEP 27 9.00 AM 32.2N 69.7W 986 65 120
SEP 27 9.00 PM 36.4N 69.6W 981 70 130
SEP 28 9.00 AM 40.4N 68.5W 980 70 130 TRANSITIONING
SEP 28 9.00 PM 43.7N 67.2W 982 65 120 TRANSITIONING
SEP 29 9.00 AM 47.1N 65.5W 997 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 9.00 PM 49.8N 63.3W 999 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 9.00 AM 52.1N 58.6W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 9.00 PM 52.5N 52.6W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY THE REGIONAL STORM PREDICTION CENTRES. WHILE WARNINGS HAVE
NOT YET BEEN ISSUED THESE TYPES OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS CAN TYPICALLY
BRING 50-100 MM. IT IS TOO EARLY TO GIVE DETAILS OF AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS. KYLE WILL BE A STRONG WIND SYSTEM WHEN IT ARRIVES WITH
STORM FORCE GUSTS BEING LIKELY AND HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS BEING
POSSIBLE.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED LAST NIGHT BY THE ATLANTIC
STORM PREDICTION CENTRE. WARNINGS HAVE NOT YET BEEN ISSUED.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
GOES NOW OUT OF ECLIPSE. VISIBLE AND NIR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS LLCC
STILL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION. NHC 09Z
DISCUSSION STATES AIR RECON AND DROPSONDE DATA SUGGESTS A 50-KT
SYSTEM AT 997 MB. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THIS IDEA FOR 12Z.

B. PROGNOSTIC
WE FAVOUR THE NHC SHIFT IN TRACK TO THE WEST FOR THE TWO MAIN
REASONS THEY HAVE STATED ... A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AND THE TENDENCY OF MODELS TO BREAK DOWN AN OMEGA BLOCK TOO QUICKLY.
WE STILL KEEP THE SYSTEM ENTERING THE CANADIAN MARINE DISTRICT AT
FULL HURRICANE STRENGTH.

HOW RAPIDLY KYLE WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE MARITIMES IS
PROBLEMATIC BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL SST SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES SHOULD
HELP MITIGATE THE STORM STRENGTH. OUR CURRENT TRACK TAKES IT 12-15
HRS OF TRAVEL TIME OVER THE COLDEST WATER SO IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE
SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT LANDFALL. IF IT REMAINS AT
HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT ARRIVES WE SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE
DECOUPLING WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT A FEW THOUSAND FEET AT
LEAST. HENCE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KYLE COULD PRODUCE HURRICANE FORCE
GUSTS WHEN IT REACHES LANDFALL.

MOST FSU CPS DIAGRAMS INDICATE TRANSITION BEGINNING ON THE
28TH BETWEEN 00 AND 09Z. COMPLETION DIFFERS IN TIMING WITH CMC GFS
AND NOGAPS ALL SUGGEST 29/00Z WHEREAS THE GFDL AND HWRF HURRICANE
MODELS SUGGEST 29/06Z. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ALL MODELS INDICATE KYLE
WILL
BE IN TRANSITION WHEN IT ARRIVES IN THE WESTERN MARINE DISTRICT AND
MAY NOT HAVE COMPLETED TRANSITION AT LANDFALL.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
GIVEN KYLE'S CURRENT TRACK.. WIND AND RAIN WILL BOTH BE AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER GIVEN THAT TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PRIOR TO ITS
ARRIVAL WE EXPECT ASSYMETRIES TO BE WELL IN DEVELOPMENT WHEN IT
ARRIVES. A FORWARD SPEED OF 20-25 KNOTS OPENS THE DOOR TO QPFS
UPWARDS OF 100 ... WHICH IS IN LINE WITH GFS AND CMC GLB OUTPUTS
SHOWING 70-90 IN PORTIONS OF NEW BRUNSWICK LEFT OF TRACK.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTRE OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND QUÉBEC WELL AHEAD OF KYLE
AND AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THIS WILL COMPLICATE THE DISCUSSION OF
WHAT KYLE ITSELF MAY BRING. THE CHC IS NOT FORECASTING THE DETAILS
OF THIS HERALDING RAIN SYSTEM.

D. MARINE WEATHER
GIVEN THE SPEED OF KYLE.. OUR WIND RADII FORECAST MAY BE A
BIT EARLY WITH ARRIVAL OF SURFACE WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. WE WILL LOOK AT THESE NUMBERS MORE CLOSELY FOR THE 18Z
BULLETIN.

KYLE IS EPXECTED TO ARRIVE NEAR THE NEW MOON NEAP TIDE SO THAT
WILL HELP MITIGATE AGAINST THE WORST TIDE-SURGE COMBINATIONS.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
26/12Z 175 175 90 90 30 30 15 15 0 0 0 0
27/00Z 180 195 135 120 75 90 60 60 0 0 0 0
27/12Z 180 225 180 150 90 135 105 105 15 15 15 15
28/00Z 180 240 225 180 90 150 135 120 35 35 35 35
28/12Z 165 240 210 150 65 150 120 90 30 35 30 20
29/00Z 120 210 135 90 20 120 60 30 5 15 5 0
29/12Z 75 180 75 45 0 90 30 0 0 0 0 0
30/00Z 60 165 45 30 0 45 15 0 0 0 0 0
30/12Z 60 150 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
01/00Z 60 150 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

END CAMPBELL/BOWYER

[JonathanBelles]

Maybe its just me, but I really dont like new graphic style. The extratropical symbol wasnt too good either in my opinion.

[CrazyC83]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 261759
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KYLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
200 PM AST FRI SEP 26 2008

...AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT FIND THE CENTER OF KYLE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE EAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES REGION SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST OR ABOUT
445 MILES...715 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND KYLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1000 MB...29.52 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA THROUGH
SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...26.9 N...68.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[yzerfan]

WOCN31 CWHX 261800
TROPICAL STORM KYLE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
FRIDAY 26 SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

...TROPICAL STORM KYLE FORECAST TO BRING WIND AND RAIN TO
THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.0 N AND LONGITUDE 68.7 W... ABOUT 380 NAUTICAL MILES OR 700 KM
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55
KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 997 MB. KYLE IS MOVING
NORTH AT 15 KNOTS... 28 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 26 3.00 PM 27.0N 68.7W 997 55 102
SEP 27 3.00 AM 30.0N 69.2W 992 60 111
SEP 27 3.00 PM 34.3N 69.7W 987 65 120
SEP 28 3.00 AM 38.4N 69.0W 982 70 130
SEP 28 3.00 PM 42.0N 67.8W 986 65 120 TRANSITIONING
SEP 29 3.00 AM 45.4N 66.3W 991 55 102 TRANSITIONING
SEP 29 3.00 PM 48.4N 64.7W 998 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 3.00 AM 50.7N 61.9W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 3.00 PM 51.5N 56.6W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

WHILE WARNINGS HAVE NOT YET BEEN ISSUED THESE TYPES OF TROPICAL
SYSTEMS CAN TYPICALLY BRING 50-100 MM OF RAINFALL. THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. KYLE IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG WIND SYSTEM WHEN IT ARRIVES WITH STORM
FORCE GUSTS (90 KM/H) BEING LIKELY AND HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS
(120 KM/H) POSSIBLE.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

NO MARINE WIND WARNINGS HAVE YET BEEN ISSUED..BUT WE EXPECT GALE AND
STORM FORCE WINDS WITH KYLE OVER WESTERN MARITIME WATERS INCLUDING
THE BAY OF FUNDY REGION ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR
OVER GEORGE'S AND BROWN'S BANK REGIONS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE AMOUNT OF SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WHICH IS CONFINING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE STORM. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.

B. PROGNOSTIC

NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE STORM TRACK IS MADE FOR THIS FORECAST EXCEPT
THAT WE TERMINATE THE REMNANT LOW NEAR LABRADOR AFTER 4 DAYS AS IT
MOVES INTO A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ZONE AND DISSIPATES.
WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY...WE DO DROP THE INTENSITY A BIT FASTER ON
APPROACH TO NEW BRUNSWICK SINCE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
COOL WATERS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE FOR A PERIOD OF ABOUT 18 HOURS.
WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL. CERTAINLY THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BECOME DECOUPLED OVER THE
COLD MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND NOVA SCOTIA.

MOST FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE GUIDANCE INDICATES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BEGINNING AFTER 06Z ON THE 28TH AND COMPLETING TRANSITION
ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER AFTER LANDFALL. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ALL MODELS
INDICATE KYLE WILL BE IN TRANSITION WHEN IT ARRIVES IN THE WESTERN
MARINE DISTRICT AND MAY NOT HAVE COMPLETED TRANSITION AT LANDFALL.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

GIVEN KYLE'S CURRENT TRACK.. WIND AND RAIN WILL BOTH BE AN ISSUE FOR
CANADIAN INTERESTS. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL WE EXPECT ASSYMETRIES TO BE WELL IN
DEVELOPMENT WHEN IT ARRIVES. A FORWARD SPEED OF 20-25 KNOTS OPENS
THE DOOR TO QPFS UPWARDS OF 100 MM...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH GFS AND
CMC GLB OUTPUTS SHOWING 50-100 MM IN PORTIONS OF NEW BRUNSWICK LEFT
OF TRACK.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER NEW ENGLAND IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND QUÉBEC WELL AHEAD OF KYLE
TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE..THIS WILL MOISTEN THE
GROUND AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL STORM AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
FLOODING FROM KYLE'S RAINFALL.

D. MARINE WEATHER

GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK..STORM SURGE AND HIGH WAVES COULD
BE AN ISSUE FOR WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTAL NOVA SCOTIA..THE FUNDY
SHORE OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND PARTS OF THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. MORE
DETAILS TO FOLLOW IN LATER BULLETINS. OF NOTE IS THE FACT THAT KYLE
IS EPXECTED TO ARRIVE NEAR THE NEW MOON NEAP TIDE SO THAT WILL HELP
EASE THE WORST TIDE-SURGE COMBINATIONS.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
26/18Z 200 200 20 30 150 120 0 0 0 0 0 0
27/06Z 200 200 40 50 150 120 0 20 0 0 0 0
27/18Z 200 200 60 70 150 120 20 30 25 25 0 0
28/06Z 220 220 60 80 150 120 20 40 35 35 0 0
28/18Z 220 240 80 80 150 140 20 20 25 25 0 0
29/06Z 250 260 120 0 0 45 20 0 0 0 0 0
29/18Z 220 250 0 120 60 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/06Z 0 150 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


END FOGARTY/NICKERSON

[CrazyC83]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 262032
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 PM AST FRI SEP 26 2008

...CENTER OF KYLE WOBBLING AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES REGION SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST OR ABOUT 400
MILES...645 KM...SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE AND THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...AND KYLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA THROUGH
SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...27.6 N...68.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


000
WTNT21 KNHC 262032
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
2100 UTC FRI SEP 26 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES REGION SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 68.7W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......180NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 150SE 30SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 68.7W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 68.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.5N 69.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.6N 69.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 36.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 40.3N 67.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 47.5N 64.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 175SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 52.0N 62.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 68.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 262347
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KYLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
800 PM AST FRI SEP 26 2008

...KYLE MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES REGION SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST OR ABOUT 375
MILES...605 KM...SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

KYLE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED ON SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
KYLE AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF
BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...AND KYLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA THROUGH
SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...28.2 N...68.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

296
WTNT41 KNHC 270257
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION. A
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE BETWEEN
992 AND 995 MB AND A SPOT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 79 KNOTS NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER. THERE IS STILL NO EVIDENCE OF STRONG WINDS WITHIN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ALSO INCREASED SINCE
THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN THE SHEAR
CURRENTLY AFFECTING KYLE WOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A
HURRICANE. KYLE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE COLD
WATERS NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AS
KYLE CROSSES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS
MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AND HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD
SPEED TO 14 KNOTS. KYLE IS LOCATED IN BETWEEN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
HIGH TO THE EAST AND A STRONG DEEP LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN FAVORS A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK WITH
A CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...KYLE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR OR OVER NOVA
SCOTIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN FACT...DYNAMICAL
TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE OF
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.

ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS KYLE WELL EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...INTERESTS IN COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF KYLE. THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD DEFINITELY BE
MORE ON GUARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 29.4N 68.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 31.5N 69.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 34.8N 69.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 38.5N 68.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 42.5N 66.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 49.0N 63.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

663
WTNT31 KNHC 270256
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 26 2008

...KYLE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...HEADING NORTHWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

INTERESTS IN COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT 310
MILES...500 KM...SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

KYLE HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF KYLE AND THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KYLE WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE ON
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA THROUGH
SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...29.4 N...68.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Chacor]

WTNT31 KNHC 270551
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KYLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
200 AM AST SAT SEP 27 2008

...KYLE JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

INTERESTS IN COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES...
515 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
THEN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF
KYLE AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
WEST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KYLE WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA THROUGH
SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...29.8 N...69.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Thunder44]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 270856
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

AIR FORCE RECON REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH AND
STRUCTURE OF KYLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THERE WERE TWO REPORTS
OF 70 KT AT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH
WOULD TYPICALLY CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 55 KT SURFACE WINDS. SFMR WINDS
IN THAT SAME AREA ALSO ONLY SUPPORT ABOUT 55 KT. HOWEVER...THE
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OCCURRED ABOUT 30 NMI NORTHWEST OF THE
MOST INTENSE CONVECTION...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS MAY
HAVE BEEN MISSED ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLIGHT LEG. THE HIGHER
LATITUDE AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE EAST ALSO SUPPORTS
KEEPING THE INTENSITY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT THE STANDARD
PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP FOR A 996 MB PRESSURE WOULD SUPPORT.

KYLE HAS MADE A SHORT TERM JOG TO THE NORTHWEST...OR 330 DEGREES AS
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...A 9-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION YIELDS 345/14...
AND THAT IS WHAT WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. KYLE REMAINS WEDGED
BETWEEN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEP-LAYER BUT
WEAKENING LOW TO THE WEST OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE COMBINED
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE KYLE NORTHWARD TODAY AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THE VARIOUS SURFACE TRACKS HAVE SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD DUE TO THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BEING STRONGER THAN
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON THE EXACT TIME AND LOCATION OF
RECURVATURE OF KYLE TO THE NORTHEAST. IF THE EXPECTED TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS DELAYED BY JUST 6 HOURS ...THEN KYLE WOULD
PASS CLOSER TO CAPE COD THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF KYLE
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN CONTRAST TO
WHAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING...THEN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS
WILL HAVE TO BE SHIFTED WESTWARD AND CLOSER TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS A RESULT...WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED...EVEN THOUGH CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED. ONE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF KYLE LATE YESTERDAY ALLOWED THE CYCLONE TO BRIEFLY
INTENSIFY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 30N LATITUDE IS
LIFTING NORTHWARD AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF KYLE AND RELIEVES PRESSURE ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE...AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE SHOULD RESUME AND
KYLE IS EXPECTED BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LATER TODAY. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS A BLEND OF THE ICON...SHIPS...AND THE
GFDL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0900Z 30.5N 69.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 33.0N 69.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 36.8N 69.4W 70 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 41.0N 68.4W 70 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 44.9N 66.7W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 30/0600Z 50.5N 64.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT 01/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 271147
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KYLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
800 AM AST SAT SEP 27 2008

...KYLE PASSING WELL TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA BUT PRODUCING SQUALLY
WEATHER ON THE ISLAND...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS
OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST OR ABOUT
295 MILES...475 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
A NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF
KYLE AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
WEST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KYLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
MAINLY NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER. WIND GUSTS OF
TROPICAL-STORM FORCE HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM BERMUDA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA THROUGH
SATURDAY. ALSO...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO MUCH OF NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WELL IN ADVANCE OF KYLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH KYLE COULD PRODUCE TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW ENGLAND AND THE ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN CANADA THROUGH
SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...31.2 N...69.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Derek Ortt]

WOCN31 CWHX 271200
TROPICAL STORM KYLE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT
SATURDAY 27 SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

...KYLE VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH ...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
31.6 N AND LONGITUDE 69.2 W... ABOUT 235 NAUTICAL MILES OR 430 KM
WEST SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS... 111 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 991
MB. KYLE IS MOVING NORTH AT 18 KNOTS... 33 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 27 9.00 AM 31.6N 69.2W 991 60 111
SEP 27 9.00 PM 35.1N 68.8W 987 65 120
SEP 28 9.00 AM 39.5N 68.2W 985 70 130 TRANSITIONING
SEP 28 9.00 PM 43.3N 67.0W 990 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 9.00 AM 46.3N 65.3W 997 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 9.00 PM 49.3N 63.2W 1002 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 9.00 AM 52.0N 60.4W 1007 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 9.00 PM 54.0N 56.8W 1012 25 46 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR YARMOUTH DIGBY SHELBURNE AND
LUNENBURG COUNTIES OF NOVA SCOTIA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 110 KM/H
CAN EXPECTED OVER THESE REGIONS. WIND WARNINGS FOR SOME OTHER
AREAS TO THE RIGHT OF KYLE'S TRACK WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY
FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF NEW BRUNSWICK WHERE NEAR 50 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH KYLE. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TODAY.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE WHICH DURING SIMILAR
EVENTS IN THE PAST HAS RESULTED IN POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO
STRUCTURES DUE TO FALLEN TREES. IN ADDITION PREPARATIONS TO SECURE
LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY LATE SUNDAY.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WATERS DURING THE REGULAR MARINE FORECAST ISSUE
AT 3 AM ADT. GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DISTRICT DURING SUBSEQUENT MARINE
FORECASTS. IN ADDITION HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST MARINE AREAS LATE SUNDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO WRAP
AROUND THE CENTRE AND IS BEGINNING TO CONCENTRATE CLOSER TO
THE CENTRE.

US AIR FORCE RECONAISSENCE REPORTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH
AND STRUCTURE OF KYLE OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT. 70 KNOT WINDS WERE
MEASURED AT 850 MB IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DURING THIS FLIGHT.
THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF KYLE WILL BE HELD TO 60 KNOTS FOR THIS
BULLETIN.

B. PROGNOSTIC

THE TRACK FORECAST FOR KYLE FOR THIS BULLETIN IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ISSUE. A FEW OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE HWRF
HAVE FLIPPED THE TRACK BACK A BIT FURTHER WEST AGAIN. TO AVOID
FLIP FLOPPING ON THE TRACK WE HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH PERSISTANCE
FOR THIS ISSUE AND WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODEL RUNS SHOW.

AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WE HAVE TERMINATED THE FORECAST
POSITIONS JUST AFTER KYLE MOVES OFF THE COAST OF LABRADOR.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KYLE WILL DISSIPATE OVER
LABRADOR ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANT
FEATURE COULD MOVE INTO THE LABRADOR SEA AND TRANSFORM INTO
A LARGER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUE. KYLE IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE UNTIL IT LEAVES THE
GULF STREAM WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. KYLE IS FORECAST TO
MAKE LANDFALL AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM NEAR YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK TAKES IT JUST EAST OF
SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE DECOUPLED OVER THE COLD MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF NEW
BRUNSWICK AND NOVA SCOTIA.

MOST FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE GUIDANCE INDICATES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE BY 00Z ON THE 30TH WHEN KYLE HAS
MOVED INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF KYLE.. BOTH WIND AND RAIN WILL BE AN
ISSUE FOR THE MARITIMES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AND
RAIN MAY BE ISSUE FOR EASTERN QUÉBEC AND LABRADOR INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PRIOR TO
ITS ARRIVAL WE EXPECT ASSYMETRIES TO BE WELL IN DEVELOPMENT WHEN
IT ARRIVES. THE FORWARD TRANSLATIONAL SPEED WILL LEAD TO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 100 MM. GFS AND CMC GLB OUTPUTS SHOW 50-100 MM
IN PORTIONS OF NEW BRUNSWICK LEFT OF TRACK AND THIS IS IN LINE
WITH OUR REASONING.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER NEW ENGLAND HAS MOVED
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND QUÉBEC WELL AHEAD OF KYLE. THIS WILL ONLY
AUGMENT THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN NEW BRUNSWICK OVER THE WEEKEND
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM KYLE'S ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL LATER SUNDAY.

D. MARINE WEATHER

STORM SURGE AND HIGH WAVES COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR WESTERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL NOVA SCOTIA..AND DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF KYLE..
THE FUNDY SHORE OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND PARTS OF THE GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE COULD BE AFFECTED AS WELL. MORE DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN
LATER BULLETINS. OF NOTE IS THE FACT THAT KYLE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
AT A TIME WHEN THE TIDAL RANGE IS RELATIVELY LOW WHICH WOULD
TEND TO MAKE THE MAXIMUM WATER LEVEL NOT AS HIGH AS IT COULD BE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LANDFALL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED CLOSER TO
LOW TIDE THAN HIGH TIDE WHICH ALSO DECREASES THE RISK OF COASTAL
FLOODING. HOWEVER A CHANGE IN STORM SPEED CHANGING THE LANDFALL
TIME COULD RESULT IN THE STORM HITTING LAND CLOSER TO A HIGH TIDE.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
27/12Z 180 150 30 30 90 35 0 0 0 0 0 0
28/00Z 190 165 45 50 90 60 10 10 30 25 0 0
28/12Z 205 185 55 60 75 65 25 25 20 20 0 0
29/00Z 220 225 70 55 55 55 15 25 0 0 0 0
29/12Z 215 235 50 55 25 25 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/00Z 125 160 10 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/12Z 25 50 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
01/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



END HATT/ROUSSEL

[cycloneye]

766
WTNT21 KNHC 271432
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1500 UTC SAT SEP 27 2008

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
COAST OF MAINE FROM STONINGTON TO EASTPORT. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST OF MAINE SOUTH OF STONINGTON TO CAPE ELIZABETH...
INCLUDING THE PORTLAND AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OF KYLE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 69.6W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT.......180NE 140SE 0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 69.6W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 69.5W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 34.7N 69.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 20SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 38.8N 68.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 43.0N 67.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 46.7N 66.0W...INLAND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 51.0N 64.0W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.1N 69.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTNT41 KNHC 271506
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF KYLE
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT KYLE CONTINUES TO BE
AFFECTED BY ABOUT 20 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 60 KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. A
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ABOUT TO REACH THE CENTER OF KYLE
TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DATA ON THE INTENSITY.

KYLE CONTINUES IT ZIG-ZAG PATH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH
THE NORTHWEST JOG SEEN EARLIER NOW BEING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
NORTHWARD JOG. THE SMOOTHED 12-HR MOTION USED IN THE ADVISORY IS
345/13. KYLE REMAINS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR 12-24 HR OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS KYLE ENTERS
THE WESTERLIES. THE TIMING OF THIS TURN WILL DETERMINE IF THE
CENTER OF KYLE MAKES LANDFALL IN MAINE...OR WHETHER IT MAKES
LANDFALL IN NEW BRUNSWICK OR NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THE OVERALL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...THE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE LEFT FROM THEIR PREVIOUS
RUNS AND NOW CALL FOR A LANDFALL IN MAINE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS TRACK...CALLING FOR THE
CENTER OF KYLE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK IN ABOUT
48 HR. THE TRACK LIES JUST LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFDL AND HWRF.

KYLE IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN STRONG...AND DIVERGENT...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS. THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS SUGGESTS CONTINUED SHEAR...WHICH
WOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WOULD ENCOURAGE STRENGTHENING. THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SHIPS MODELS
ALL FORECAST KYLE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COLD
WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM IN 24-36 HR...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. AFTER KYLE REACHES THE COLDER WATER...IT
SHOULD WEAKEN AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITIONS. KYLE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER EASTERN CANADA BY 72 HR AND
BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 96 HR.

THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII REQUIRE WATCHES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINE AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 32.1N 69.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 34.7N 69.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 38.8N 68.9W 70 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 43.0N 67.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 46.7N 66.0W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 30/1200Z 51.0N 64.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT 01/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[yzerfan]

WWCN31 CWHX 271526
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 12:26 PM ADT SATURDAY 27 SEPTEMBER 2008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= QUEENS COUNTY
=NEW= SHELBURNE COUNTY
=NEW= YARMOUTH COUNTY
=NEW= DIGBY COUNTY
=NEW= SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY
=NEW= GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE COUNTY
=NEW= ST. STEPHEN AND NORTHERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY.

TROPICAL STORM KYLE IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MARITIMES. WIND
AND OR RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT A TROPICAL STORM OR AN INCIPIENT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED
AREAS WITHIN 36 HOURS. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE
THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT NOON SATURDAY THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED
WEST OF BERMUDA AND MOVING NORTHWARD. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK KYLE
IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST WEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA LATE SUNDAY
EVENING AND MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

RAIN.. AMOUNTING TO 50 TO 100 MILLIMETRES.. AND OR STRONG WINDS..
SUSTAINED AT 65 KM/H OR MORE AND GUSTING TO 90 TO 110 KM/H ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF NOVA SCOTIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK
SUNDAY EVENING.

THIS WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER TODAY AS THE PATH AND
INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/CNN

OCN31 CWHX 271200
TROPICAL STORM KYLE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT
SATURDAY 27 SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

...KYLE VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH ...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
31.6 N AND LONGITUDE 69.2 W... ABOUT 235 NAUTICAL MILES OR 430 KM
WEST SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS... 111 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 991
MB. KYLE IS MOVING NORTH AT 18 KNOTS... 33 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 27 9.00 AM 31.6N 69.2W 991 60 111
SEP 27 9.00 PM 35.1N 68.8W 987 65 120
SEP 28 9.00 AM 39.5N 68.2W 985 70 130 TRANSITIONING
SEP 28 9.00 PM 43.3N 67.0W 990 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 9.00 AM 46.3N 65.3W 997 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 9.00 PM 49.3N 63.2W 1002 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 9.00 AM 52.0N 60.4W 1007 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 9.00 PM 54.0N 56.8W 1012 25 46 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR YARMOUTH DIGBY SHELBURNE AND
LUNENBURG COUNTIES OF NOVA SCOTIA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 110 KM/H
CAN EXPECTED OVER THESE REGIONS. WIND WARNINGS FOR SOME OTHER
AREAS TO THE RIGHT OF KYLE'S TRACK WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY
FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF NEW BRUNSWICK WHERE NEAR 50 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH KYLE. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TODAY.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE WHICH DURING SIMILAR
EVENTS IN THE PAST HAS RESULTED IN POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO
STRUCTURES DUE TO FALLEN TREES. IN ADDITION PREPARATIONS TO SECURE
LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY LATE SUNDAY.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WATERS DURING THE REGULAR MARINE FORECAST ISSUE
AT 3 AM ADT. GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DISTRICT DURING SUBSEQUENT MARINE
FORECASTS. IN ADDITION HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST MARINE AREAS LATE SUNDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO WRAP
AROUND THE CENTRE AND IS BEGINNING TO CONCENTRATE CLOSER TO
THE CENTRE.

US AIR FORCE RECONAISSENCE REPORTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH
AND STRUCTURE OF KYLE OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT. 70 KNOT WINDS WERE
MEASURED AT 850 MB IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DURING THIS FLIGHT.
THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF KYLE WILL BE HELD TO 60 KNOTS FOR THIS
BULLETIN.

B. PROGNOSTIC

THE TRACK FORECAST FOR KYLE FOR THIS BULLETIN IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ISSUE. A FEW OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE HWRF
HAVE FLIPPED THE TRACK BACK A BIT FURTHER WEST AGAIN. TO AVOID
FLIP FLOPPING ON THE TRACK WE HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH PERSISTANCE
FOR THIS ISSUE AND WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODEL RUNS SHOW.

AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WE HAVE TERMINATED THE FORECAST
POSITIONS JUST AFTER KYLE MOVES OFF THE COAST OF LABRADOR.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KYLE WILL DISSIPATE OVER
LABRADOR ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANT
FEATURE COULD MOVE INTO THE LABRADOR SEA AND TRANSFORM INTO
A LARGER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUE. KYLE IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE UNTIL IT LEAVES THE
GULF STREAM WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. KYLE IS FORECAST TO
MAKE LANDFALL AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM NEAR YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK TAKES IT JUST EAST OF
SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE DECOUPLED OVER THE COLD MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF NEW
BRUNSWICK AND NOVA SCOTIA.

MOST FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE GUIDANCE INDICATES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE BY 00Z ON THE 30TH WHEN KYLE HAS
MOVED INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF KYLE.. BOTH WIND AND RAIN WILL BE AN
ISSUE FOR THE MARITIMES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AND
RAIN MAY BE ISSUE FOR EASTERN QUÉBEC AND LABRADOR INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PRIOR TO
ITS ARRIVAL WE EXPECT ASSYMETRIES TO BE WELL IN DEVELOPMENT WHEN
IT ARRIVES. THE FORWARD TRANSLATIONAL SPEED WILL LEAD TO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 100 MM. GFS AND CMC GLB OUTPUTS SHOW 50-100 MM
IN PORTIONS OF NEW BRUNSWICK LEFT OF TRACK AND THIS IS IN LINE
WITH OUR REASONING.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER NEW ENGLAND HAS MOVED
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND QUÉBEC WELL AHEAD OF KYLE. THIS WILL ONLY
AUGMENT THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN NEW BRUNSWICK OVER THE WEEKEND
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM KYLE'S ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL LATER SUNDAY.

D. MARINE WEATHER

STORM SURGE AND HIGH WAVES COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR WESTERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL NOVA SCOTIA..AND DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF KYLE..
THE FUNDY SHORE OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND PARTS OF THE GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE COULD BE AFFECTED AS WELL. MORE DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN
LATER BULLETINS. OF NOTE IS THE FACT THAT KYLE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
AT A TIME WHEN THE TIDAL RANGE IS RELATIVELY LOW WHICH WOULD
TEND TO MAKE THE MAXIMUM WATER LEVEL NOT AS HIGH AS IT COULD BE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LANDFALL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED CLOSER TO
LOW TIDE THAN HIGH TIDE WHICH ALSO DECREASES THE RISK OF COASTAL
FLOODING. HOWEVER A CHANGE IN STORM SPEED CHANGING THE LANDFALL
TIME COULD RESULT IN THE STORM HITTING LAND CLOSER TO A HIGH TIDE.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
27/12Z 180 150 30 30 90 35 0 0 0 0 0 0
28/00Z 190 165 45 50 90 60 10 10 30 25 0 0
28/12Z 205 185 55 60 75 65 25 25 20 20 0 0
29/00Z 220 225 70 55 55 55 15 25 0 0 0 0
29/12Z 215 235 50 55 25 25 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/00Z 125 160 10 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/12Z 25 50 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
01/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



END HATT/ROUSSEL

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 271745
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KYLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
200 PM AST SAT SEP 27 2008

...KYLE ACCELERATING NORTHWARD...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM
STONINGTON TO EASTPORT. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE SOUTH OF
STONINGTON TO CAPE ELIZABETH...INCLUDING THE PORTLAND AREA. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NOVA
SCOTIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OF KYLE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT
300 MILES...480 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT
550 MILES...885 KM...SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

KYLE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A
NORTHWARD MOTION WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND OR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND KYLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA THROUGH
TODAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...NEW BRUNSWICK...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...AND NOVA SCOTIA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...33.3 N...69.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN