CWHX 271916
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 4:16 PM ADT SATURDAY 27 SEPTEMBER 2008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= QUEENS COUNTY
LUNENBURG COUNTY
SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY
GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE COUNTY
ST. STEPHEN AND NORTHERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY.
TROPICAL STORM KYLE IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MARITIMES.
WIND AND OR RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT A TROPICAL STORM OR AN
INCIPIENT TROPICAL STORM CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO
THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 36 HOURS. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM
ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR:
SHELBURNE COUNTY
YARMOUTH COUNTY
DIGBY COUNTY.
TROPICAL STORM KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT
AND PASS WEST OF YARMOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS COULD
REACH 120 KM/H.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT A HURRICANE OR AN INCIPIENT
HURRICANE CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED
AREAS WITHIN 36 HOURS. BY NATURE A HURRICANE ALSO IMPLIES THE
THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ENDED FOR:
DIGBY COUNTY.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT 3PM ADT THIS AFTERNOON TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED 465
KILOMETRES WEST OF BERMUDA AND MOVING NORTHWARD 24 KM/H. ON ITS PATH
KYLE IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE WEST OF YARMOUTH VERY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING OR VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL ON THE NEW BRUNSWICK COAST BEFORE DAWN MONDAY.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT KYLE WILL PUSH TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 80 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 120 KM/H INTO THE TRI-COUNTY REGION OF
NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF KYLE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST JUST AS KYLE PASSES WEST OF YARMOUTH.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED CONCURRENTLY FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
THE REMAINING COUNTIES ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA AND IN
SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK CAN EXPECT WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 110 KM/H.
THESE SAME WINDS SPEEDS IN SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE PAST HAVE CAUSED
SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE THAT HAS RESULTED IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND
DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES DUE TO FALLING BRANCHES OR TREES.
ALL PREPARATIONS TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO MOST OF NEW
BRUNSWICK WHERE RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. 50 TO 100
MILLIMETRES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. EMO NEW
BRUNSWICK REMINDS THE PUBLIC THAT RAINFALL IN THESE AMOUNTS IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAN RESULT IN RAPID INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS IN
STREAMS AND RIVERS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
ALSO OF CONCERN..KYLE WILL BE ARRIVING AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN
YARMOUTH. THE RESULTING STORM SURGE FROM KYLE ON TOP OF THE DANGEROUS
ROUGH SURF MAY LEAD TO SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO THE COASTAL
INFRASTRUCTURE MAINLY IN YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
END/CNN
ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
WTCN31 CWHX 271913
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 4:13 PM ADT SATURDAY 27 SEPTEMBER 2008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= SHELBURNE COUNTY
=NEW= YARMOUTH COUNTY
=NEW= DIGBY COUNTY.
TROPICAL STORM KYLE IS INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS
THE MARITIMES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED GALES... WINDS OF
63 KM/H OR MORE ... ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN
24 HOURS. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF LOCAL
FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT 3PM ADT THIS AFTERNOON TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED 465
KILOMETRES WEST OF BERMUDA AND MOVING NORTHWARD 24 KM/H. ON ITS
PATH KYLE IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE WEST OF YARMOUTH VERY
LATE SUNDAY EVENING OR VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL ON THE NEW BRUNSWICK COAST BEFORE DAWN MONDAY.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT KYLE WILL PUSH TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 80 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 120 KM/H INTO THE TRI-COUNTY
REGION OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH AND POSITION OF KYLE SUSTAINED HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST JUST AS KYLE PASSES WEST
OF YARMOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED CONCURRENTLY FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY.
THESE SAME WINDS SPEEDS IN SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE PAST HAVE CAUSED
SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE THAT HAS RESULTED IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND
DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES DUE TO FALLING BRANCHES OR TREES. ALL
PREPARATIONS TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
ALSO OF CONCERN.. KYLE WILL BE ARRIVING AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN
YARMOUTH. THE RESULTING STORM SURGE FROM KYLE ON TOP OF THE
DANGEROUS ROUGH SURF MAY LEAD TO SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO
THE COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE MAINLY IN YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
END/CNN
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 4:13 PM ADT SATURDAY 27 SEPTEMBER 2008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= SHELBURNE COUNTY
=NEW= YARMOUTH COUNTY
=NEW= DIGBY COUNTY.
TROPICAL STORM KYLE IS INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS
THE MARITIMES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED GALES... WINDS OF
63 KM/H OR MORE ... ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN
24 HOURS. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF LOCAL
FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT 3PM ADT THIS AFTERNOON TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED 465
KILOMETRES WEST OF BERMUDA AND MOVING NORTHWARD 24 KM/H. ON ITS
PATH KYLE IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE WEST OF YARMOUTH VERY
LATE SUNDAY EVENING OR VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL ON THE NEW BRUNSWICK COAST BEFORE DAWN MONDAY.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT KYLE WILL PUSH TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 80 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 120 KM/H INTO THE TRI-COUNTY
REGION OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH AND POSITION OF KYLE SUSTAINED HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST JUST AS KYLE PASSES WEST
OF YARMOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED CONCURRENTLY FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY.
THESE SAME WINDS SPEEDS IN SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE PAST HAVE CAUSED
SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE THAT HAS RESULTED IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND
DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES DUE TO FALLING BRANCHES OR TREES. ALL
PREPARATIONS TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
ALSO OF CONCERN.. KYLE WILL BE ARRIVING AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN
YARMOUTH. THE RESULTING STORM SURGE FROM KYLE ON TOP OF THE
DANGEROUS ROUGH SURF MAY LEAD TO SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO
THE COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE MAINLY IN YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
END/CNN
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139066
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Advisories
WTNT31 KNHC 272032
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 PM AST SAT SEP 27 2008
...KYLE BECOMES A HURRICANE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A
PART OF THE COAST OF MAINE...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM
STONINGTON EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE COAST OF MAINE FROM PORT CLYDE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE
SOUTH OF PORT CLYDE TO CAPE ELIZABETH...INCLUDING THE PORTLAND
AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OF KYLE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES...
505 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 485 MILES...780 KM...
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.
KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE SUNDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 995
MB...29.38 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES....ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...NEW
BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...34.3 N...69.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT21 KNHC 272032
TCMAT1
HURRICANE KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
2100 UTC SAT SEP 27 2008
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM
STONINGTON EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE COAST OF MAINE FROM PORT CLYDE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE
SOUTH OF PORT CLYDE TO CAPE ELIZABETH...INCLUDING THE PORTLAND
AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OF KYLE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 69.7W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......105NE 90SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT.......180NE 140SE 0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 69.7W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 69.7W
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 37.2N 69.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...105NE 90SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 50SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 41.3N 68.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...105NE 90SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 50SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 45.3N 66.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...105NE 90SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 50SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 48.3N 65.3W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...125NE 175SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 51.5N 64.0W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 69.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 PM AST SAT SEP 27 2008
...KYLE BECOMES A HURRICANE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A
PART OF THE COAST OF MAINE...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM
STONINGTON EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE COAST OF MAINE FROM PORT CLYDE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE
SOUTH OF PORT CLYDE TO CAPE ELIZABETH...INCLUDING THE PORTLAND
AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OF KYLE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES...
505 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 485 MILES...780 KM...
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.
KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE SUNDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 995
MB...29.38 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES....ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...NEW
BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...34.3 N...69.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT21 KNHC 272032
TCMAT1
HURRICANE KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
2100 UTC SAT SEP 27 2008
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM
STONINGTON EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE COAST OF MAINE FROM PORT CLYDE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE
SOUTH OF PORT CLYDE TO CAPE ELIZABETH...INCLUDING THE PORTLAND
AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OF KYLE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 69.7W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......105NE 90SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT.......180NE 140SE 0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 69.7W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 69.7W
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 37.2N 69.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...105NE 90SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 50SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 41.3N 68.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...105NE 90SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 50SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 45.3N 66.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...105NE 90SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 50SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 48.3N 65.3W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...125NE 175SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 51.5N 64.0W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 69.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139066
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: Hurricane Kyle : Advisories
WTNT31 KNHC 272345
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
800 PM AST SAT SEP 27 2008
...KYLE PASSING WELL EAST OF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...HEADING
TOWARD EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM
STONINGTON EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE
FROM PORT CLYDE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE
SOUTH OF PORT CLYDE TO CAPE ELIZABETH...INCLUDING THE PORTLAND
AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK
CANADA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OF KYLE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST ABOUT 405 MILES...650
KM...SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 615 MILES...985
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA.
KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES....ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...NEW
BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...35.4 N...69.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
800 PM AST SAT SEP 27 2008
...KYLE PASSING WELL EAST OF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...HEADING
TOWARD EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM
STONINGTON EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE
FROM PORT CLYDE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE
SOUTH OF PORT CLYDE TO CAPE ELIZABETH...INCLUDING THE PORTLAND
AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK
CANADA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OF KYLE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST ABOUT 405 MILES...650
KM...SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 615 MILES...985
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA.
KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES....ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...NEW
BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...35.4 N...69.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
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HURRICANE KYLE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT SATURDAY
27 SEPTEMBER 2008.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT
...KYLE NOW A HURRICANE AND ON TRACK FOR THE WESTERN
MARITIMES...
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 N
AND LONGITUDE 69.7 W... ABOUT 285 NAUTICAL MILES OR 530 KM EAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65
KNOTS... 120 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 995 MB. KYLE IS MOVING
NORTH AT 20 KNOTS... 39 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 27 9.00 PM 35.4N 69.7W 995 65 120
SEP 28 3.00 AM 37.2N 69.5W 986 70 130
SEP 28 9.00 AM 39.3N 69.0W 985 70 130
SEP 28 3.00 PM 41.3N 68.2W 983 70 130
SEP 28 9.00 PM 43.1N 67.4W 987 65 120 TRANSITIONING
SEP 29 3.00 AM 45.0N 66.5W 990 60 111 TRANSITIONING
SEP 29 9.00 AM 46.6N 65.7W 997 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 3.00 PM 48.0N 65.0W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 9.00 PM 49.3N 64.3W 1002 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 3.00 AM 50.3N 63.5W 1005 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 9.00 AM 51.2N 62.7W 1007 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 3.00 PM 51.9N 61.9W 1012 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 9.00 PM 52.4N 61.3W 1017 25 46 POST-TROPICAL
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICITION CENTRE HAS NOW ISSUED HURRICANE
WATCHES FOR YARMOUTH SHELBURNE AND DIGBY COUNTIES IN NOVA
SCOTIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR THESE
SAME THREE COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO
LUNENBURG COUNTY AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR QUEENS COUNTY IN
NOVA SCOTIA AND FOR SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY.. GRAND MANAN AND
COASTAL CHARLOTTE COUNTY AND ST. STEPHEN AND NORTHERN CHARLOTTE
COUNTY IN NEW BRUNSWICK. WIND GUSTS OF 90 TO 120 KM/H CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THESE REGIONS BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT
TREE DAMAGE DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS OF KYLE EITHER SUNDAY
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. DURING SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE PAST THESE
WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES
DUE TO FALLEN TREES. ALL PREPARATIONS TO SECURE ANY LOOSE OBJECTS
SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NEW BRUNSWICK
WHERE 50 TO 100 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH KYLE. THIS
IS IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT FELL TODAY.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED WEST OF WHERE KYLE
EVENTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL. EMO NEW BRUNSWICK REMINDS THE PUBLIC
THAT RAINFALL IN THESE AMOUNTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAN
RESULT IN RAPID INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS IN STREAMS AND RIVERS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE GASPÉ
PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS OF QUÉBEC. THIS AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 50 MILLIMETRES AS POST TROPICAL STORM KYLE INTERACTS
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
ON ITS CURRENT TRACK KYLE WILL BE PASSING BY YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN YARMOUTH. THE RESULTING STORM SURGE
ON TOP OF THE DANGEROUS ROUGH SURF FROM KYLE MAY LEAD TO
SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO THE COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE
MAINLY IN YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THERE ARE CURRENTLY HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS IN EFFECT
FOR GEORGES AND BROWNS BANK AND FOR THE LURCHER MARINE AREA.
STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR FUNDY GRAND MANAN AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN SHORE MARINE AREA. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA. GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE SUNDAY MORNING.
SIGNIFICANT WAVES ON THE ORDER OF 6 TO 9 METRES WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MARINE AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY EVENING.
5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS
A. ANALYSIS
KYLE BECAME A HURRICANE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION IMPROVED. A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
THE SFMR ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 65-75 KNOTS BUT THE
HIGHER WINDS WERE SOMEWHAT SUSPECT. KYLE REMAINS SHEARED
WITH MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS AND CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTRE.
KYLE HAS ALSO BEGUN TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
THERE HAS BEEN NO RECENT SHIP OR BUOY DATA NEAR KYLE TO
HELP US BETTER DEFINE THE WIND SPEED OR WAVE HEIGHTS.
KYLE PASSED VERY CLOSE TO BUOY 41048 BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z.
THE MAXIMUM WINDS AT THE BUOY WERE 48 KNOTS AND THE HIGHEST
SIGNIFICANT WAVE WAS 7.0 METRES. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WERE RECORDED ON BERMUDA ISLAND SOME 300 TO 400 NM
EAST OF THE STORM CENTRE.
B. PROGNOSTIC
JUST LIKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.. THIS AFTERNOON'S MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT CLOSER TO NOVA
SCOTIA. HOWEVER TO AVOID THE FLIP-FLOP WE HAVE NOT ADJUSTED OUR
TRACK MUCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON. NHC ALSO ACCEPTED THIS
REASONING. IF TONIGHT'S 00Z MODEL RUN GUIDANCE REMAINS CLOSER
TO NOVA SCOTIA THEN THE TRACK MAY NEED SOME EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT.
WE KEEP KYLE ON PATH FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES KYLE
AS A WEAKENING POST TROPICAL STORM THROUGH NEW BRUNSWICK AND
INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE MONDAY EVENING.
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME DIFFICULTY IN WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY
BE KYLE'S DEMISE IN EASTERN QUÉBEC OR LABRADOR. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE STORM WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER
LABRADOR ON TUESDAY.. WHILE OTHER MODELS TAKE A WEAKENING
STORM INTO THE LABRADOR SEA AND MERGE IT WITH A STRONGER
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. WE HAVE CHOSEN TO REMAIN PERSISTENT AND
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE KYLE OVER LABRADOR ON TUESDAY.
WE FOLLOWED THE NHC GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. WE HAVE KEPT KYLE AS A 65 KNOT HURRICANE AS IT
TRAVERSES INTO THE BROWNS BANK MARINE AREA. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN ON THE 28TH AT 12Z ACCORDING TO FSU
PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS AND WILL BE COMPLETE ABOUT 24 HOURS
LATER IN CENTRAL NEW BRUNSWICK.
ON THE PROJECTED PATH KYLE WILL HAVE SPENT 12 OR MORE HOURS
OVER COLD WATERS AND SHOULD HAVE WEAKENED TO JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT ARRIVES ON THE NEW BRUNSWICK COAST
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.
C. PUBLIC WEATHER
THERE WAS NO REQUIRMENT TO ADJUST PUBLIC WARNINGS THIS
EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
HENCE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK SHOULD SEE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WIND GUSTS AND REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAST KYLE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE COLD
WATERS SOUTHWEST OF NOVA SCOTIA. WE ARE RELUCTANT TO PUT
SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA COUNTIES UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING
AT THIS TIME AND WILL LEAVE IT AS A HURRICANE WATCH.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE STORM PATH
AND WITH THE FORWARD TRANSLATIONAL SPEED AMOUNTS COULD BE
UPWARDS TO 100 MM. THIS HEAVIEST RAIN COULD FALL IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME INCREASING THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THIS RAIN IS ON TOP OF ANY AMOUNTS THAT FALL TODAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL ZONE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
AS A RESULT OF KEEPING KYLE A HURRICANE UP TO THE POINT IT
REACHES BROWNS BANK.. AND THE FACT THAT THE TRACK IS
WEST OF SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK.. WIND WARNINGS WERE
EXTENDED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OF NEW BRUNSWICK ANYWHERE
NEAR AND EAST OF THE TRACK OF KYLE. WE WILL HAVE TO RAISE THE
WIND SPEED GUSTS TO 120 KM/H OVER SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
TO MATCH THE HURRICANE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES
BY WEST OF YARMOUTH AT 29/0300Z.
AS A RESULT OF THE QUESTION OF HOW FAST KYLE WILL DEMISE
OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE OR IN EASTERN QUÉBEC WE HAVE
NOT DISCUSSED THE EFFECTS ON LABRADOR. IF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
HOLDS.. KYLE MAY WELL HAVE DISSIPATED BEFORE REACHING
LABRADOR.
D. MARINE WEATHER
TRAPPED FETCH WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 6 TO 8 METRES ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY NIGHT. ON ITS CURRENT
TRACK KYLE WILL BE PASSING YARMOUTH AT ABOUT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR YARMOUTH AND DIGBY
COUNTIES AS KYLE PASSES JUST AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. IF THE
TRACK CHANGES THEN OTHER AREAS MAY BE OF CONCERN AS WELL.
IN NEW BRUINSWICK KYLE WILL ARRIVE AS THE TIDE IS EBBING
AND HENCE STORM SURGE SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE MINOR SHORELINE EROSION
DUE TO THE POUNDING SURF.
PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
28/00Z 180 140 20 110 90 30 0 45 15 15 0 0
28/06Z 180 160 50 110 90 60 10 45 30 30 0 0
28/12Z 180 160 50 110 90 60 10 45 30 30 0 0
28/18Z 200 170 50 120 90 75 20 50 30 30 0 0
29/00Z 200 180 50 120 90 75 20 50 30 30 0 0
29/06Z 220 200 60 60 90 90 20 40 0 0 0 0
29/12Z 200 200 60 60 25 25 0 0 0 0 0 0
29/18Z 170 195 30 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/00Z 125 160 10 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/06Z 120 160 30 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/12Z 120 150 60 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
01/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END NICKERSON/ROUSSEL/CAMPBELL
HURRICANE KYLE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT SATURDAY
27 SEPTEMBER 2008.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT
...KYLE NOW A HURRICANE AND ON TRACK FOR THE WESTERN
MARITIMES...
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 N
AND LONGITUDE 69.7 W... ABOUT 285 NAUTICAL MILES OR 530 KM EAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65
KNOTS... 120 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 995 MB. KYLE IS MOVING
NORTH AT 20 KNOTS... 39 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 27 9.00 PM 35.4N 69.7W 995 65 120
SEP 28 3.00 AM 37.2N 69.5W 986 70 130
SEP 28 9.00 AM 39.3N 69.0W 985 70 130
SEP 28 3.00 PM 41.3N 68.2W 983 70 130
SEP 28 9.00 PM 43.1N 67.4W 987 65 120 TRANSITIONING
SEP 29 3.00 AM 45.0N 66.5W 990 60 111 TRANSITIONING
SEP 29 9.00 AM 46.6N 65.7W 997 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 3.00 PM 48.0N 65.0W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 9.00 PM 49.3N 64.3W 1002 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 3.00 AM 50.3N 63.5W 1005 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 9.00 AM 51.2N 62.7W 1007 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 3.00 PM 51.9N 61.9W 1012 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 9.00 PM 52.4N 61.3W 1017 25 46 POST-TROPICAL
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICITION CENTRE HAS NOW ISSUED HURRICANE
WATCHES FOR YARMOUTH SHELBURNE AND DIGBY COUNTIES IN NOVA
SCOTIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR THESE
SAME THREE COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO
LUNENBURG COUNTY AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR QUEENS COUNTY IN
NOVA SCOTIA AND FOR SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY.. GRAND MANAN AND
COASTAL CHARLOTTE COUNTY AND ST. STEPHEN AND NORTHERN CHARLOTTE
COUNTY IN NEW BRUNSWICK. WIND GUSTS OF 90 TO 120 KM/H CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THESE REGIONS BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT
TREE DAMAGE DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS OF KYLE EITHER SUNDAY
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. DURING SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE PAST THESE
WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES
DUE TO FALLEN TREES. ALL PREPARATIONS TO SECURE ANY LOOSE OBJECTS
SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NEW BRUNSWICK
WHERE 50 TO 100 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH KYLE. THIS
IS IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT FELL TODAY.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED WEST OF WHERE KYLE
EVENTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL. EMO NEW BRUNSWICK REMINDS THE PUBLIC
THAT RAINFALL IN THESE AMOUNTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAN
RESULT IN RAPID INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS IN STREAMS AND RIVERS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE GASPÉ
PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS OF QUÉBEC. THIS AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 50 MILLIMETRES AS POST TROPICAL STORM KYLE INTERACTS
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
ON ITS CURRENT TRACK KYLE WILL BE PASSING BY YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN YARMOUTH. THE RESULTING STORM SURGE
ON TOP OF THE DANGEROUS ROUGH SURF FROM KYLE MAY LEAD TO
SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO THE COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE
MAINLY IN YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THERE ARE CURRENTLY HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS IN EFFECT
FOR GEORGES AND BROWNS BANK AND FOR THE LURCHER MARINE AREA.
STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR FUNDY GRAND MANAN AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN SHORE MARINE AREA. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA. GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE SUNDAY MORNING.
SIGNIFICANT WAVES ON THE ORDER OF 6 TO 9 METRES WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MARINE AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY EVENING.
5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS
A. ANALYSIS
KYLE BECAME A HURRICANE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION IMPROVED. A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
THE SFMR ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 65-75 KNOTS BUT THE
HIGHER WINDS WERE SOMEWHAT SUSPECT. KYLE REMAINS SHEARED
WITH MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS AND CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTRE.
KYLE HAS ALSO BEGUN TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
THERE HAS BEEN NO RECENT SHIP OR BUOY DATA NEAR KYLE TO
HELP US BETTER DEFINE THE WIND SPEED OR WAVE HEIGHTS.
KYLE PASSED VERY CLOSE TO BUOY 41048 BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z.
THE MAXIMUM WINDS AT THE BUOY WERE 48 KNOTS AND THE HIGHEST
SIGNIFICANT WAVE WAS 7.0 METRES. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WERE RECORDED ON BERMUDA ISLAND SOME 300 TO 400 NM
EAST OF THE STORM CENTRE.
B. PROGNOSTIC
JUST LIKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.. THIS AFTERNOON'S MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT CLOSER TO NOVA
SCOTIA. HOWEVER TO AVOID THE FLIP-FLOP WE HAVE NOT ADJUSTED OUR
TRACK MUCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON. NHC ALSO ACCEPTED THIS
REASONING. IF TONIGHT'S 00Z MODEL RUN GUIDANCE REMAINS CLOSER
TO NOVA SCOTIA THEN THE TRACK MAY NEED SOME EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT.
WE KEEP KYLE ON PATH FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES KYLE
AS A WEAKENING POST TROPICAL STORM THROUGH NEW BRUNSWICK AND
INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE MONDAY EVENING.
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME DIFFICULTY IN WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY
BE KYLE'S DEMISE IN EASTERN QUÉBEC OR LABRADOR. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE STORM WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER
LABRADOR ON TUESDAY.. WHILE OTHER MODELS TAKE A WEAKENING
STORM INTO THE LABRADOR SEA AND MERGE IT WITH A STRONGER
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. WE HAVE CHOSEN TO REMAIN PERSISTENT AND
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE KYLE OVER LABRADOR ON TUESDAY.
WE FOLLOWED THE NHC GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. WE HAVE KEPT KYLE AS A 65 KNOT HURRICANE AS IT
TRAVERSES INTO THE BROWNS BANK MARINE AREA. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN ON THE 28TH AT 12Z ACCORDING TO FSU
PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS AND WILL BE COMPLETE ABOUT 24 HOURS
LATER IN CENTRAL NEW BRUNSWICK.
ON THE PROJECTED PATH KYLE WILL HAVE SPENT 12 OR MORE HOURS
OVER COLD WATERS AND SHOULD HAVE WEAKENED TO JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT ARRIVES ON THE NEW BRUNSWICK COAST
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.
C. PUBLIC WEATHER
THERE WAS NO REQUIRMENT TO ADJUST PUBLIC WARNINGS THIS
EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
HENCE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK SHOULD SEE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WIND GUSTS AND REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAST KYLE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE COLD
WATERS SOUTHWEST OF NOVA SCOTIA. WE ARE RELUCTANT TO PUT
SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA COUNTIES UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING
AT THIS TIME AND WILL LEAVE IT AS A HURRICANE WATCH.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE STORM PATH
AND WITH THE FORWARD TRANSLATIONAL SPEED AMOUNTS COULD BE
UPWARDS TO 100 MM. THIS HEAVIEST RAIN COULD FALL IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME INCREASING THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THIS RAIN IS ON TOP OF ANY AMOUNTS THAT FALL TODAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL ZONE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
AS A RESULT OF KEEPING KYLE A HURRICANE UP TO THE POINT IT
REACHES BROWNS BANK.. AND THE FACT THAT THE TRACK IS
WEST OF SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK.. WIND WARNINGS WERE
EXTENDED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OF NEW BRUNSWICK ANYWHERE
NEAR AND EAST OF THE TRACK OF KYLE. WE WILL HAVE TO RAISE THE
WIND SPEED GUSTS TO 120 KM/H OVER SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
TO MATCH THE HURRICANE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES
BY WEST OF YARMOUTH AT 29/0300Z.
AS A RESULT OF THE QUESTION OF HOW FAST KYLE WILL DEMISE
OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE OR IN EASTERN QUÉBEC WE HAVE
NOT DISCUSSED THE EFFECTS ON LABRADOR. IF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
HOLDS.. KYLE MAY WELL HAVE DISSIPATED BEFORE REACHING
LABRADOR.
D. MARINE WEATHER
TRAPPED FETCH WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 6 TO 8 METRES ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY NIGHT. ON ITS CURRENT
TRACK KYLE WILL BE PASSING YARMOUTH AT ABOUT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR YARMOUTH AND DIGBY
COUNTIES AS KYLE PASSES JUST AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. IF THE
TRACK CHANGES THEN OTHER AREAS MAY BE OF CONCERN AS WELL.
IN NEW BRUINSWICK KYLE WILL ARRIVE AS THE TIDE IS EBBING
AND HENCE STORM SURGE SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE MINOR SHORELINE EROSION
DUE TO THE POUNDING SURF.
PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
28/00Z 180 140 20 110 90 30 0 45 15 15 0 0
28/06Z 180 160 50 110 90 60 10 45 30 30 0 0
28/12Z 180 160 50 110 90 60 10 45 30 30 0 0
28/18Z 200 170 50 120 90 75 20 50 30 30 0 0
29/00Z 200 180 50 120 90 75 20 50 30 30 0 0
29/06Z 220 200 60 60 90 90 20 40 0 0 0 0
29/12Z 200 200 60 60 25 25 0 0 0 0 0 0
29/18Z 170 195 30 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/00Z 125 160 10 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/06Z 120 160 30 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/12Z 120 150 60 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
01/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END NICKERSON/ROUSSEL/CAMPBELL
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WWCN31 CWHX 280052
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 9:52 PM ADT SATURDAY 27 SEPTEMBER 2008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR:
LUNENBURG COUNTY
QUEENS COUNTY
SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY
GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE COUNTY
ST. STEPHEN AND NORTHERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY.
TROPICAL STORM KYLE IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MARITIMES.
WIND AND OR RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT A TROPICAL STORM OR AN
INCIPIENT TROPICAL STORM CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO
THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 36 HOURS. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM
ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR:
SHELBURNE COUNTY
YARMOUTH COUNTY
DIGBY COUNTY.
TROPICAL STORM KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT
AND PASS WEST OF YARMOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS COULD
REACH 120 KM/H.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT A HURRICANE OR AN INCIPIENT
HURRICANE CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED
AREAS WITHIN 36 HOURS. BY NATURE A HURRICANE ALSO IMPLIES THE
THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT 9PM ADT THIS EVENING HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED 530
KILOMETRES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS AND MOVING NORTHWARD 39 KM/H. ON ITS
PATH KYLE IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE WEST OF YARMOUTH VERY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING OR VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL ON THE NEW BRUNSWICK COAST BEFORE DAWN MONDAY.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT KYLE WILL PUSH TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 80 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 120 KM/H INTO THE TRI-COUNTY REGION OF
NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF KYLE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST JUST AS KYLE PASSES WEST OF YARMOUTH.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED CONCURRENTLY FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
THE REMAINING COUNTIES ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA AND IN
SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK CAN EXPECT WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 110 KM/H.
THESE SAME WINDS SPEEDS IN SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE PAST HAVE CAUSED
SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE THAT HAS RESULTED IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND
DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES DUE TO FALLING BRANCHES OR TREES.
ALL PREPARATIONS TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO MOST OF NEW
BRUNSWICK WHERE RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. 50 TO 100
MILLIMETRES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. EMO NEW
BRUNSWICK REMINDS THE PUBLIC THAT RAINFALL IN THESE AMOUNTS IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAN RESULT IN RAPID INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS IN
STREAMS AND RIVERS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
ALSO OF CONCERN..KYLE WILL BE ARRIVING AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN
YARMOUTH. THE RESULTING STORM SURGE FROM KYLE ON TOP OF THE DANGEROUS
ROUGH SURF MAY LEAD TO SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO THE COASTAL
INFRASTRUCTURE MAINLY IN YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
END/ASPC
WTCN31 CWHX 280052
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 9:52 PM ADT SATURDAY 27 SEPTEMBER 2008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
SHELBURNE COUNTY
YARMOUTH COUNTY
DIGBY COUNTY.
TROPICAL STORM KYLE IS INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE MARITIMES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED GALES...WINDS OF
63 KM/H OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 24
HOURS. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF
LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL.
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 9:52 PM ADT SATURDAY 27 SEPTEMBER 2008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR:
LUNENBURG COUNTY
QUEENS COUNTY
SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY
GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE COUNTY
ST. STEPHEN AND NORTHERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY.
TROPICAL STORM KYLE IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MARITIMES.
WIND AND OR RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT A TROPICAL STORM OR AN
INCIPIENT TROPICAL STORM CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO
THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 36 HOURS. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM
ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR:
SHELBURNE COUNTY
YARMOUTH COUNTY
DIGBY COUNTY.
TROPICAL STORM KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT
AND PASS WEST OF YARMOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS COULD
REACH 120 KM/H.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT A HURRICANE OR AN INCIPIENT
HURRICANE CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED
AREAS WITHIN 36 HOURS. BY NATURE A HURRICANE ALSO IMPLIES THE
THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT 9PM ADT THIS EVENING HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED 530
KILOMETRES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS AND MOVING NORTHWARD 39 KM/H. ON ITS
PATH KYLE IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE WEST OF YARMOUTH VERY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING OR VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL ON THE NEW BRUNSWICK COAST BEFORE DAWN MONDAY.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT KYLE WILL PUSH TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 80 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 120 KM/H INTO THE TRI-COUNTY REGION OF
NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF KYLE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST JUST AS KYLE PASSES WEST OF YARMOUTH.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED CONCURRENTLY FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
THE REMAINING COUNTIES ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA AND IN
SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK CAN EXPECT WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 110 KM/H.
THESE SAME WINDS SPEEDS IN SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE PAST HAVE CAUSED
SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE THAT HAS RESULTED IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND
DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES DUE TO FALLING BRANCHES OR TREES.
ALL PREPARATIONS TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO MOST OF NEW
BRUNSWICK WHERE RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. 50 TO 100
MILLIMETRES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. EMO NEW
BRUNSWICK REMINDS THE PUBLIC THAT RAINFALL IN THESE AMOUNTS IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAN RESULT IN RAPID INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS IN
STREAMS AND RIVERS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
ALSO OF CONCERN..KYLE WILL BE ARRIVING AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN
YARMOUTH. THE RESULTING STORM SURGE FROM KYLE ON TOP OF THE DANGEROUS
ROUGH SURF MAY LEAD TO SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO THE COASTAL
INFRASTRUCTURE MAINLY IN YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
END/ASPC
WTCN31 CWHX 280052
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 9:52 PM ADT SATURDAY 27 SEPTEMBER 2008.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
SHELBURNE COUNTY
YARMOUTH COUNTY
DIGBY COUNTY.
TROPICAL STORM KYLE IS INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE MARITIMES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED GALES...WINDS OF
63 KM/H OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 24
HOURS. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF
LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL.
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bvigal
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2275
- Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
- Location: British Virgin Islands
- Contact:
Re: ATL: Hurricane Kyle : Advisories
How come NHC doesn't draw the Canadian watches/warnings on the warnings map? They do for every other country I've ever seen them mention in the text."A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA."
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1108W5+gif/165812W_sm.gif
Last edited by bvigal on Sat Sep 27, 2008 8:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: ATL: Hurricane Kyle : Advisories
bvigal wrote::?: How come NHC doesn't draw the Canadian watches/warnings on the warnings map? They do for every other country I've ever seen them mention in the text.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1108W5+gif/165812W_sm.gif
I think it is because their software was never updated to include them, as they are issued irregularly for weird areas on the map.
0 likes
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139066
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: Hurricane Kyle : Advisories
WTNT21 KNHC 280244
TCMAT1
HURRICANE KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
0300 UTC SUN SEP 28 2008
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM
STONINGTON EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE
FROM PORT CLYDE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE
SOUTH OF PORT CLYDE TO CAPE ELIZABETH...INCLUDING THE PORTLAND
AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NOVA SCOTIA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OF KYLE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 69.5W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......105NE 90SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT.......180NE 140SE 0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 69.5W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 69.7W
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 39.5N 68.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...105NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 43.7N 67.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...105NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 47.2N 65.1W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 49.2N 64.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...125NE 150SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 51.0N 63.0W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.2N 69.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
WTNT41 KNHC 280251
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008
KYLE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A VERY ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN FOR A
HURRICANE. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES
DECREASED A LITTLE...HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND THE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND KYLE
REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE
SAMPLING THE STORM AROUND 0600 UTC.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE VERY STRONG...BUT DIVERGENT FLOW
OVER THE HURRICANE. IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
AND KYLE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. KYLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER MUCH COLDER
SSTS NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM WITHIN 24 HOURS...SO THE NEW FORECAST
NOW SHOWS SOME WEAKENING PRIOR TO KYLE REACHING THE COAST. THIS
FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINS KYLE AS A HURRICANE
FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...THEN SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.
HOWEVER...ONE SHOULD REMEMBER THAT THERE IS LITTLE PRACTICAL
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM AND A 65 KT HURRICANE.
KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SOON AFTER REACHING
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/20 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE
TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ONCE
AGAIN SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGE A LITTLE EASTWARD...BUT IT REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS. IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AS KYLE
INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS
DECELERATION DURING THAT TIME...BUT IT IS EXPECTED THAT KYLE WILL
BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0300Z 36.2N 69.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 39.5N 68.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 43.7N 67.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 47.2N 65.1W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
48HR VT 30/0000Z 49.2N 64.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 01/0000Z 51.0N 63.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT 02/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TCMAT1
HURRICANE KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
0300 UTC SUN SEP 28 2008
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM
STONINGTON EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE
FROM PORT CLYDE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE
SOUTH OF PORT CLYDE TO CAPE ELIZABETH...INCLUDING THE PORTLAND
AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NOVA SCOTIA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OF KYLE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 69.5W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......105NE 90SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT.......180NE 140SE 0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 69.5W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 69.7W
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 39.5N 68.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...105NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 43.7N 67.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...105NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 47.2N 65.1W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 49.2N 64.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...125NE 150SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 51.0N 63.0W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.2N 69.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
WTNT41 KNHC 280251
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008
KYLE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A VERY ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN FOR A
HURRICANE. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES
DECREASED A LITTLE...HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND THE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND KYLE
REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE
SAMPLING THE STORM AROUND 0600 UTC.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE VERY STRONG...BUT DIVERGENT FLOW
OVER THE HURRICANE. IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
AND KYLE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. KYLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER MUCH COLDER
SSTS NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM WITHIN 24 HOURS...SO THE NEW FORECAST
NOW SHOWS SOME WEAKENING PRIOR TO KYLE REACHING THE COAST. THIS
FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINS KYLE AS A HURRICANE
FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...THEN SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.
HOWEVER...ONE SHOULD REMEMBER THAT THERE IS LITTLE PRACTICAL
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM AND A 65 KT HURRICANE.
KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SOON AFTER REACHING
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/20 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE
TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ONCE
AGAIN SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGE A LITTLE EASTWARD...BUT IT REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS. IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AS KYLE
INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS
DECELERATION DURING THAT TIME...BUT IT IS EXPECTED THAT KYLE WILL
BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0300Z 36.2N 69.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 39.5N 68.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 43.7N 67.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 47.2N 65.1W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
48HR VT 30/0000Z 49.2N 64.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 01/0000Z 51.0N 63.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT 02/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Kyle : Advisories
WTNT31 KNHC 280840
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 AM AST SUN SEP 28 2008
...KYLE HEADING TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE GULF OF MAINE...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM
STONINGTON EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE
FROM PORT CLYDE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA AND SOUTHWESTERN
NOVA SCOTIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE SOUTH
OF PORT CLYDE TO CAPE ELIZABETH...INCLUDING THE PORTLAND AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NOVA SCOTIA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED BY
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 38.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES...
335 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 405
MILES...655 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA.
KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF CAPE COD
MASSACHUSETTS ON SUNDAY AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MAINE AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES....ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...38.4 N...69.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WTNT41 KNHC 280844
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008
KYLE EMERGED FROM THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD LOOKING RATHER UGLY
FROM A CONVECTION PERSPECTIVE. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH CONVECTION
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG WITH SUPPORTIVE RECON WIND DATA
TO KEEP THE CYCLONE DESIGNATED AS A HURRICANE. THE HIGHEST 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEED MEASURED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WAS 80
KT AND THE MAXIMUM SFMR SURFACE WIND SPEED OBSERVED WAS 61 KT.
HOWEVER...THESE TWO WIND SPEED VALUES WERE NOT ANYWHERE CLOSE TO
HAVING BEEN OBSERVED IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION. DROPSONDE WIND
PROFILES ALSO INDICATE THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE NORTHEASTWARD
TILT BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTERS. THE TWO CENTER
DROPS REVEALED LIGHT WINDS AT FLIGHT-LEVEL WITH UP TO 52 KT AT THE
SURFACE ALONG WITH A PRESSURE VALUE OF 1001 MB. USING A 1 MB PER 10
KT REDUCTION FACTOR YIELDS A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF APPROXIMATELY 996
MB. ALTHOUGH THE 80-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN A
SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF 73 KT...THE SEVERELY TILTED STRUCTURE AND
DEGRADED CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS INSTEAD COMPELLED ME TO USE A BLEND
OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND PEAK SFMR WIND SPEEDS TO ESTIMATE THE
MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED TO BE 65 KT. HOWEVER...THIS VALUE COULD
BE ADJUSTED IN THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/21 KT. RECON FIX DATA SHOWS THAT
KYLE REMAINS ON TRACK. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
KYLE HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND IS BEING LIFTED NORTHWARD BY DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN
A LARGE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH TO THE WEST SITUATED
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE GULF OR
MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY AS KYLE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.
POST-ECLIPSE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS BECOMING
CONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. KYLE IS ALSO ABOUT 6-9 HOURS AWAY FROM REACHING MUCH
COOLER WATERS THAT NORTH OF THE GULFSTREAM THAT IS POSITIONED ALONG
40N LATITUDE. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS COULD DECOUPLE BEFORE KYLE REACHES ANY
LAND AREAS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE DOWNWARD TREND
PREDICTED BY THE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF INTENSITY MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0900Z 38.4N 69.1W 65 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 41.5N 68.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 45.2N 66.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 29/1800Z 48.0N 64.9W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
48HR VT 30/0600Z 49.5N 64.1W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT 01/0600Z 50.8N 63.3W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT 02/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 AM AST SUN SEP 28 2008
...KYLE HEADING TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE GULF OF MAINE...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM
STONINGTON EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE
FROM PORT CLYDE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA AND SOUTHWESTERN
NOVA SCOTIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE SOUTH
OF PORT CLYDE TO CAPE ELIZABETH...INCLUDING THE PORTLAND AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NOVA SCOTIA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED BY
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 38.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES...
335 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 405
MILES...655 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA.
KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF CAPE COD
MASSACHUSETTS ON SUNDAY AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MAINE AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES....ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...38.4 N...69.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WTNT41 KNHC 280844
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008
KYLE EMERGED FROM THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD LOOKING RATHER UGLY
FROM A CONVECTION PERSPECTIVE. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH CONVECTION
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG WITH SUPPORTIVE RECON WIND DATA
TO KEEP THE CYCLONE DESIGNATED AS A HURRICANE. THE HIGHEST 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEED MEASURED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WAS 80
KT AND THE MAXIMUM SFMR SURFACE WIND SPEED OBSERVED WAS 61 KT.
HOWEVER...THESE TWO WIND SPEED VALUES WERE NOT ANYWHERE CLOSE TO
HAVING BEEN OBSERVED IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION. DROPSONDE WIND
PROFILES ALSO INDICATE THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE NORTHEASTWARD
TILT BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTERS. THE TWO CENTER
DROPS REVEALED LIGHT WINDS AT FLIGHT-LEVEL WITH UP TO 52 KT AT THE
SURFACE ALONG WITH A PRESSURE VALUE OF 1001 MB. USING A 1 MB PER 10
KT REDUCTION FACTOR YIELDS A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF APPROXIMATELY 996
MB. ALTHOUGH THE 80-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN A
SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF 73 KT...THE SEVERELY TILTED STRUCTURE AND
DEGRADED CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS INSTEAD COMPELLED ME TO USE A BLEND
OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND PEAK SFMR WIND SPEEDS TO ESTIMATE THE
MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED TO BE 65 KT. HOWEVER...THIS VALUE COULD
BE ADJUSTED IN THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/21 KT. RECON FIX DATA SHOWS THAT
KYLE REMAINS ON TRACK. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
KYLE HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND IS BEING LIFTED NORTHWARD BY DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN
A LARGE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH TO THE WEST SITUATED
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE GULF OR
MAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY AS KYLE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.
POST-ECLIPSE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS BECOMING
CONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. KYLE IS ALSO ABOUT 6-9 HOURS AWAY FROM REACHING MUCH
COOLER WATERS THAT NORTH OF THE GULFSTREAM THAT IS POSITIONED ALONG
40N LATITUDE. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS COULD DECOUPLE BEFORE KYLE REACHES ANY
LAND AREAS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE DOWNWARD TREND
PREDICTED BY THE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF INTENSITY MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0900Z 38.4N 69.1W 65 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 41.5N 68.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 45.2N 66.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 29/1800Z 48.0N 64.9W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
48HR VT 30/0600Z 49.5N 64.1W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT 01/0600Z 50.8N 63.3W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT 02/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Kyle : Advisories
WTNT31 KNHC 281158
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
800 AM AST SUN SEP 28 2008
...KYLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE BUT IS APPROACHING COLDER WATERS...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM
STONINGTON EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE
FROM PORT CLYDE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA AND SOUTHWESTERN
NOVA SCOTIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE SOUTH
OF PORT CLYDE TO CAPE ELIZABETH...INCLUDING THE PORTLAND AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NOVA SCOTIA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 39.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES...265 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND
ABOUT 440 MILES...710 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE IS FORECAST TO
PASS EAST OF CAPE COD MASSACHUSETTS AND THE COAST OF MAINE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. KYLE IS APPROACHING COLDER WATERS AND
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. THE SYSTEM COULD LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES....ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...39.3 N...68.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
800 AM AST SUN SEP 28 2008
...KYLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE BUT IS APPROACHING COLDER WATERS...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM
STONINGTON EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE
FROM PORT CLYDE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA AND SOUTHWESTERN
NOVA SCOTIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE SOUTH
OF PORT CLYDE TO CAPE ELIZABETH...INCLUDING THE PORTLAND AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NOVA SCOTIA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 39.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES...265 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND
ABOUT 440 MILES...710 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE IS FORECAST TO
PASS EAST OF CAPE COD MASSACHUSETTS AND THE COAST OF MAINE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. KYLE IS APPROACHING COLDER WATERS AND
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. THE SYSTEM COULD LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES....ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...39.3 N...68.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Kyle : Advisories
WTNT21 KNHC 281446
TCMAT1
HURRICANE KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1500 UTC SUN SEP 28 2008
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WEST OF
STONINGTON MAINE ARE DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM STONINGTON EASTWARD TO
EASTPORT MAINE. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK
CANADA AND SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NOVA SCOTIA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KYLE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.4N 67.7W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 21 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......105NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 140SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.4N 67.7W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 68.3W
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 43.3N 66.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...105NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 46.3N 64.6W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...105NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 48.5N 63.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 50.0N 63.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 51.5N 63.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.4N 67.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT41 KNHC 281451
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT KYLE IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO A LESS
TROPICAL-LOOKING SYSTEM. THE CLOUD BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE CENTER LOOKS SOMEWHAT FRONTAL...SO KYLE IS PROBABLY
STARTING TO MAKE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. EVEN THOUGH DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA...IN
PARTICULAR DROPSONDE MEASUREMENTS WHICH SHOWED THAT THE MAXIMUM
SURFACE WINDS COULD HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 75 KT JUST BEFORE 12Z.
DATA BUOYS 44011 AND 44024 ARE VERY NEAR THE PROJECTED PATH OF
KYLE...AND THESE PLATFORMS SHOULD BE USEFUL IN ASSESSING THE
STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE LATER TODAY. NONETHELESS...THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB 15 DEG C WATERS LATER TODAY WHICH WILL
LARGELY ELIMINATE THE OCEANIC ENERGY SOURCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS WELL...WITH THE THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS THE CYCLONE BECOMING
NEGLIGIBLE IN 48 HOURS OR SO. IN FACT THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON DISSIPATION AFTER 72 HOURS...WHICH IS ALSO SHOWN IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
LATEST FIXES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
020/21...IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA AND THE STEERING WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND AND IS A LITTLE EAST OF
THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. THIS IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST GFDL RUN.
IF THE CURRENT TREND IN THE TRACK OF KYLE CONTINUES...THE HURRICANE
WATCH FOR MAINE COULD BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/1500Z 40.4N 67.7W 70 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 43.3N 66.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 46.3N 64.6W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 30/0000Z 48.5N 63.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 30/1200Z 50.0N 63.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 01/1200Z 51.5N 63.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE
TCMAT1
HURRICANE KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1500 UTC SUN SEP 28 2008
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WEST OF
STONINGTON MAINE ARE DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM STONINGTON EASTWARD TO
EASTPORT MAINE. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK
CANADA AND SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NOVA SCOTIA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KYLE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.4N 67.7W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 21 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......105NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 140SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.4N 67.7W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 68.3W
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 43.3N 66.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...105NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 46.3N 64.6W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...105NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 48.5N 63.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 50.0N 63.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 51.5N 63.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.4N 67.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT41 KNHC 281451
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT KYLE IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO A LESS
TROPICAL-LOOKING SYSTEM. THE CLOUD BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE CENTER LOOKS SOMEWHAT FRONTAL...SO KYLE IS PROBABLY
STARTING TO MAKE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. EVEN THOUGH DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA...IN
PARTICULAR DROPSONDE MEASUREMENTS WHICH SHOWED THAT THE MAXIMUM
SURFACE WINDS COULD HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 75 KT JUST BEFORE 12Z.
DATA BUOYS 44011 AND 44024 ARE VERY NEAR THE PROJECTED PATH OF
KYLE...AND THESE PLATFORMS SHOULD BE USEFUL IN ASSESSING THE
STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE LATER TODAY. NONETHELESS...THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB 15 DEG C WATERS LATER TODAY WHICH WILL
LARGELY ELIMINATE THE OCEANIC ENERGY SOURCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS WELL...WITH THE THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS THE CYCLONE BECOMING
NEGLIGIBLE IN 48 HOURS OR SO. IN FACT THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON DISSIPATION AFTER 72 HOURS...WHICH IS ALSO SHOWN IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
LATEST FIXES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
020/21...IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA AND THE STEERING WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND AND IS A LITTLE EAST OF
THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. THIS IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST GFDL RUN.
IF THE CURRENT TREND IN THE TRACK OF KYLE CONTINUES...THE HURRICANE
WATCH FOR MAINE COULD BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/1500Z 40.4N 67.7W 70 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 43.3N 66.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 46.3N 64.6W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 30/0000Z 48.5N 63.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 30/1200Z 50.0N 63.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 01/1200Z 51.5N 63.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Kyle : Advisories
WTNT31 KNHC 281751
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
200 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2008
...KYLE HEADED FOR NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW BRUNSWICK...
AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR MAINE IS
DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
STONINGTON EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE.
AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COUNTIES OF DIGBY...YARMOUTH...AND
SHELBURNE IN SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK
CANADA AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NOVA SCOTIA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KYLE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES...
360 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORTLAND MAINE AND ABOUT 230 MILES...370
KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF KYLE SHOULD PASS EAST OF THE COAST OF MAINE LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW
BRUNSWICK TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ALTHOUGH KYLE IS MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS AND WEAKENING IS
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...KYLE COULD STILL BE AT HURRICANE
STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES NOVA SCOTIA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
DATA FROM A NOAA BUOY INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
NEAR 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES....ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...41.6 N...66.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
200 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2008
...KYLE HEADED FOR NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW BRUNSWICK...
AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR MAINE IS
DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
STONINGTON EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE.
AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COUNTIES OF DIGBY...YARMOUTH...AND
SHELBURNE IN SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK
CANADA AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NOVA SCOTIA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KYLE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES...
360 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORTLAND MAINE AND ABOUT 230 MILES...370
KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF KYLE SHOULD PASS EAST OF THE COAST OF MAINE LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW
BRUNSWICK TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ALTHOUGH KYLE IS MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS AND WEAKENING IS
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...KYLE COULD STILL BE AT HURRICANE
STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES NOVA SCOTIA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
DATA FROM A NOAA BUOY INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
NEAR 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES....ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...41.6 N...66.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Kyle : Advisories
WOCN31 CWHX 281800
HURRICANE KYLE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT SUNDAY
28 SEPTEMBER 2008.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT
...HURRICANE KYLE TRACKING TOWARDS DIGBY NECK...
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.5 N
AND LONGITUDE 67.1 W... ABOUT 135 NAUTICAL MILES OR 245 KM EAST
OF CAPE COD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS...
130 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 983 MB. KYLE IS MOVING NORTH
AT 24 KNOTS... 45 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 28 3.00 PM 41.5N 67.1W 983 70 130
SEP 28 9.00 PM 43.7N 66.3W 987 65 120 TRANSITIONING
SEP 29 3.00 AM 45.3N 65.7W 990 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 9.00 AM 46.3N 65.2W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 3.00 PM 47.5N 64.5W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 9.00 PM 48.6N 63.9W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 3.00 AM 49.6N 63.4W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 9.00 AM 50.4N 63.0W 1012 25 46 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 3.00 PM 51.1N 62.7W 1012 25 46 POST-TROPICAL
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR DIGBY YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE
COUNTIES IN NOVA SCOTIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR QUEENS COUNTY OF NOVA SCOTIA LUNENBURG COUNTY ANNAPOLIS COUNTY
SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY AND GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE
COUNTY IN NEW BRUNSWICK FUNDY NATIONAL PARK MONCTON AND
SOUTHEAST NEW BRUNSWICK. WIND GUSTS OF 90 TO 130 KM/H CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT EXCEPT GUSTS TO 90 OVER THE NEW BRUNSWICK SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.
THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A STORM SURGE
WARNING FOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF
YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE
AND WAVE SETUP ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WATER LEVELS OF MORE
THAN 1.0 METRE ABOVE THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WHICH WILL BE
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE STORM ARRIVING
THIS EVENING. BASED ON HISTORICAL PRECEDENTS THIS COMBINATION
COULD CAUSE SOME COASTAL FLOODING.
IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER
TREE DAMAGE DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS OF KYLE EITHER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. DURING SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE
PAST THESE WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND DAMAGE TO
STRUCTURES DUE TO FALLEN TREES. ALL PREPARATIONS TO SECURE ANY LOOSE
OBJECTS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS TIME.
RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NEW BRUNSWICK
WHERE 50 TO 100 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH KYLE. THIS
IS IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT FELL PRIOR TO
KYLE'S ARRIVAL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED WEST OF WHERE
KYLE EVENTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL. EMO NEW BRUNSWICK REMINDS THE PUBLIC
THAT RAINFALL IN THESE AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAN
RESULT IN A RAPID WATER LEVEL INCREASE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS
AND CAUSED LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE GASPÉ
PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS OF QUÉBEC. THIS AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 50 MILLIMETRES AS POST TROPICAL STORM KYLE INTERACTS
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
ON ITS CURRENT TRACK KYLE WILL BE PASSING JUST WEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN YARMOUTH. THE RESULTING STORM
SURGE ON TOP OF THE DANGEROUS ROUGH SURF FROM KYLE MAY LEAD TO
SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO THE COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE
MAINLY IN YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE COUNTIES.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE GEORGES BANK BUOY REPORTED RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING. AS THE CENTRE OF KYLE APPROACHED
TO THE WEST OF THE BUOY THE REPORTED WINDS INCREASED FROM STRONG
TO HURRICANE FORCE OF 69 KNOTS IN 3 HOURS. THE STORM CENTRE HAS
NOW PASSED WEST OF THE BUOY WHICH REPORTED 11.0 M SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS AT 2 PM ADT.
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE CONTINUED
FOR GEORGES AND BROWNS BANK AND FOR THE LURCHER MARINE AREA.
STORM WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR FUNDY GRAND MANAN AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN SHORE WESTERN LAHAVE AND NORTHWESTERN WEST SCOTIAN
SLOPE MARINE AREA. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA WATERS AND GULF OF ST LAWRENCE
WATERS.
5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS
A. ANALYSIS
LATE MORNING 25 KM ASCAT PASS GAVE A SENSE OF THE BROAD AREA
OF GALES WELL EAST OF KYLE ? EXTENDING TO MORE THAN 200 NM.
HURRICANE KYLE IS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY
BELIEVED. THE HEAVY CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRE AND
PARTIALLY NEAR THE CENTRE SHOWS INTENSIFICATION IN SPITE
OF COOLER WATER AND THE SHEAR. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS
FOLLOWING AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE AND NHC FORECASTERS.
B. PROGNOSTIC
KYLE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD PASSING NEAR THE WEST
COAST OF YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE THIS
SUNDAY EVENING THEN ACROSS THE BAY OF FUNDY BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL JUST EAST OF SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK AFTER MIDNIGHT
OR IN THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. KYLE IS EXISTING
BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC.
WE KEEP OUR TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MIAMI TRACK BUT
EAST OF OUR 12Z TRACK ISSUED THIS MORNING. AT 29/00Z WE KEEP
KYLE AT 65 KNOTS AT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BECAUSE OF ITS
PRESENT INTENSITY AND ITS FAST MOVEMENT. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE CONSISTENT ON MAINTAINING A BAROCLINIC LOW NEAR OUR TRACK
BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND MIAMI SUPPORT IS OUR MAIN GUIDANCE.
KYLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE COLD WATER OF
THE BAY OF FUNDY THEN RAPIDLY FINISH ITS TRANSITION INTO
A POST-TROPICAL LOW AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE
THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN QUÉBEC NORTH SHORE.
C. PUBLIC WEATHER
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF THE STORM PATH AND COULD
BE UPWARDS TO 100 MM. THIS HEAVIEST RAIN COULD FALL IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME INCREASING THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THIS RAIN IS ON TOP OF ANY AMOUNTS THAT FELL PREVIOUSLY.
THE NEWFOUNDL AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE IS MAINTAINING
SOUTHEASTERN LABRADOR UNDER RAINFALL WARNING CRITERIA.
D. MARINE WEATHER
CHC TRAPPED FETCH MODEL INDICATES NOTHING HIGHER THAN 8 METRES
MOVING INTO CANADIAN WATERS BUT THIS IS BASED ON THE SHIFTED
TRACK AND LACK OF ALIGNMENT WITH PREVIUSLY DEVELOPED WAVES.
IF THE SHIFT EASTWARD IN TRACK IS MORE GRADUAL THAN WE HAVE
BEEN THINKING THEN THESE WAVES COULD BE UPWARDS OF 10 METRES.
PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
28/18Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 70 50 0 0
29/00Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 70 50 0 0
29/06Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 0 0 0 0
29/12Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 0 0 0 0
29/18Z 210 150 100 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/00Z 210 150 100 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END BOWYER/ROUSSEL
HURRICANE KYLE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT SUNDAY
28 SEPTEMBER 2008.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT
...HURRICANE KYLE TRACKING TOWARDS DIGBY NECK...
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.5 N
AND LONGITUDE 67.1 W... ABOUT 135 NAUTICAL MILES OR 245 KM EAST
OF CAPE COD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS...
130 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 983 MB. KYLE IS MOVING NORTH
AT 24 KNOTS... 45 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 28 3.00 PM 41.5N 67.1W 983 70 130
SEP 28 9.00 PM 43.7N 66.3W 987 65 120 TRANSITIONING
SEP 29 3.00 AM 45.3N 65.7W 990 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 9.00 AM 46.3N 65.2W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 3.00 PM 47.5N 64.5W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 9.00 PM 48.6N 63.9W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 3.00 AM 49.6N 63.4W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 9.00 AM 50.4N 63.0W 1012 25 46 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 30 3.00 PM 51.1N 62.7W 1012 25 46 POST-TROPICAL
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR DIGBY YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE
COUNTIES IN NOVA SCOTIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR QUEENS COUNTY OF NOVA SCOTIA LUNENBURG COUNTY ANNAPOLIS COUNTY
SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY AND GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE
COUNTY IN NEW BRUNSWICK FUNDY NATIONAL PARK MONCTON AND
SOUTHEAST NEW BRUNSWICK. WIND GUSTS OF 90 TO 130 KM/H CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT EXCEPT GUSTS TO 90 OVER THE NEW BRUNSWICK SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.
THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A STORM SURGE
WARNING FOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF
YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE
AND WAVE SETUP ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WATER LEVELS OF MORE
THAN 1.0 METRE ABOVE THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WHICH WILL BE
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE STORM ARRIVING
THIS EVENING. BASED ON HISTORICAL PRECEDENTS THIS COMBINATION
COULD CAUSE SOME COASTAL FLOODING.
IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER
TREE DAMAGE DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS OF KYLE EITHER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. DURING SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE
PAST THESE WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND DAMAGE TO
STRUCTURES DUE TO FALLEN TREES. ALL PREPARATIONS TO SECURE ANY LOOSE
OBJECTS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS TIME.
RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NEW BRUNSWICK
WHERE 50 TO 100 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH KYLE. THIS
IS IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT FELL PRIOR TO
KYLE'S ARRIVAL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED WEST OF WHERE
KYLE EVENTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL. EMO NEW BRUNSWICK REMINDS THE PUBLIC
THAT RAINFALL IN THESE AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAN
RESULT IN A RAPID WATER LEVEL INCREASE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS
AND CAUSED LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE GASPÉ
PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS OF QUÉBEC. THIS AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 50 MILLIMETRES AS POST TROPICAL STORM KYLE INTERACTS
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
ON ITS CURRENT TRACK KYLE WILL BE PASSING JUST WEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN YARMOUTH. THE RESULTING STORM
SURGE ON TOP OF THE DANGEROUS ROUGH SURF FROM KYLE MAY LEAD TO
SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO THE COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE
MAINLY IN YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE COUNTIES.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE GEORGES BANK BUOY REPORTED RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING. AS THE CENTRE OF KYLE APPROACHED
TO THE WEST OF THE BUOY THE REPORTED WINDS INCREASED FROM STRONG
TO HURRICANE FORCE OF 69 KNOTS IN 3 HOURS. THE STORM CENTRE HAS
NOW PASSED WEST OF THE BUOY WHICH REPORTED 11.0 M SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS AT 2 PM ADT.
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE CONTINUED
FOR GEORGES AND BROWNS BANK AND FOR THE LURCHER MARINE AREA.
STORM WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR FUNDY GRAND MANAN AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN SHORE WESTERN LAHAVE AND NORTHWESTERN WEST SCOTIAN
SLOPE MARINE AREA. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA WATERS AND GULF OF ST LAWRENCE
WATERS.
5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS
A. ANALYSIS
LATE MORNING 25 KM ASCAT PASS GAVE A SENSE OF THE BROAD AREA
OF GALES WELL EAST OF KYLE ? EXTENDING TO MORE THAN 200 NM.
HURRICANE KYLE IS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY
BELIEVED. THE HEAVY CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRE AND
PARTIALLY NEAR THE CENTRE SHOWS INTENSIFICATION IN SPITE
OF COOLER WATER AND THE SHEAR. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS
FOLLOWING AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE AND NHC FORECASTERS.
B. PROGNOSTIC
KYLE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD PASSING NEAR THE WEST
COAST OF YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE THIS
SUNDAY EVENING THEN ACROSS THE BAY OF FUNDY BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL JUST EAST OF SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK AFTER MIDNIGHT
OR IN THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. KYLE IS EXISTING
BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC.
WE KEEP OUR TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MIAMI TRACK BUT
EAST OF OUR 12Z TRACK ISSUED THIS MORNING. AT 29/00Z WE KEEP
KYLE AT 65 KNOTS AT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BECAUSE OF ITS
PRESENT INTENSITY AND ITS FAST MOVEMENT. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE CONSISTENT ON MAINTAINING A BAROCLINIC LOW NEAR OUR TRACK
BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND MIAMI SUPPORT IS OUR MAIN GUIDANCE.
KYLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE COLD WATER OF
THE BAY OF FUNDY THEN RAPIDLY FINISH ITS TRANSITION INTO
A POST-TROPICAL LOW AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE
THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN QUÉBEC NORTH SHORE.
C. PUBLIC WEATHER
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF THE STORM PATH AND COULD
BE UPWARDS TO 100 MM. THIS HEAVIEST RAIN COULD FALL IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME INCREASING THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THIS RAIN IS ON TOP OF ANY AMOUNTS THAT FELL PREVIOUSLY.
THE NEWFOUNDL AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE IS MAINTAINING
SOUTHEASTERN LABRADOR UNDER RAINFALL WARNING CRITERIA.
D. MARINE WEATHER
CHC TRAPPED FETCH MODEL INDICATES NOTHING HIGHER THAN 8 METRES
MOVING INTO CANADIAN WATERS BUT THIS IS BASED ON THE SHIFTED
TRACK AND LACK OF ALIGNMENT WITH PREVIUSLY DEVELOPED WAVES.
IF THE SHIFT EASTWARD IN TRACK IS MORE GRADUAL THAN WE HAVE
BEEN THINKING THEN THESE WAVES COULD BE UPWARDS OF 10 METRES.
PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
28/18Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 70 50 0 0
29/00Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 70 50 0 0
29/06Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 0 0 0 0
29/12Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 0 0 0 0
29/18Z 210 150 100 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/00Z 210 150 100 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END BOWYER/ROUSSEL
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139066
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: Hurricane Kyle : Advisories
WTNT31 KNHC 282032
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2008
...KYLE APPROACHING NOVA SCOTIA...ABOUT TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF DIGBY...
YARMOUTH...AND SHELBURNE IN SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM STONINGTON MAINE
EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA...AND
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NOVA SCOTIA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KYLE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
225 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
ABOUT 180 MILES...290 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER
OF KYLE WILL MOVE OVER OR NEAR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND
OVER OR NEAR NEW BRUNSWICK AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KYLE IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF MAINE...NEW
BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES....ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...42.7 N...66.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT41 KNHC 282032
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008
KYLE IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOW LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING...A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND
STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SYSTEM...AND AN ASYMMETRIC
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN. EARLIER TODAY...AT ABOUT 1600 UTC...NOAA
DATA BUOY 44011 REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 51 KT WITH A
GUST TO 72 KT AT AN INSTRUMENT HEIGHT OF 5 METERS. THE BUOY ALSO
REPORTED 36-FOOT SEAS WHICH LIKELY CAUSED SOME SHELTERING OF THE
ANEMOMETER...AND UNDER-REPORTING OF THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. THE
BUOY ALSO REPORTED A LOWEST PRESSURE OF 987.1 WITH WINDS OF 31
KT...SUGGESTING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 984 MB. THESE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT KYLE MAINTAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH
DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT DETERIORATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN AND COLDER WATERS...KYLE MAY NOW JUST BARELY BE AT
HURRICANE INTENSITY. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH OF A BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCE...I.E. THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CYCLONE... AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM IN A DAY OR TWO.
CONSEQUENTLY THE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY 72 HOURS...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.
INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER 030/22. IN SPITE OF THE RECENT
ACCELERATION...THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD
SPEED WILL SLOW WITHIN 12 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND THE STEERING WINDS WEAKEN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/2100Z 42.7N 66.1W 65 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 45.1N 64.7W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
24HR VT 29/1800Z 47.7N 63.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 30/0600Z 49.5N 63.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
48HR VT 30/1800Z 50.5N 63.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2008
...KYLE APPROACHING NOVA SCOTIA...ABOUT TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF DIGBY...
YARMOUTH...AND SHELBURNE IN SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM STONINGTON MAINE
EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA...AND
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NOVA SCOTIA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KYLE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
225 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
ABOUT 180 MILES...290 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER
OF KYLE WILL MOVE OVER OR NEAR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND
OVER OR NEAR NEW BRUNSWICK AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KYLE IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF MAINE...NEW
BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES....ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...42.7 N...66.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT41 KNHC 282032
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008
KYLE IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOW LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING...A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND
STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SYSTEM...AND AN ASYMMETRIC
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN. EARLIER TODAY...AT ABOUT 1600 UTC...NOAA
DATA BUOY 44011 REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 51 KT WITH A
GUST TO 72 KT AT AN INSTRUMENT HEIGHT OF 5 METERS. THE BUOY ALSO
REPORTED 36-FOOT SEAS WHICH LIKELY CAUSED SOME SHELTERING OF THE
ANEMOMETER...AND UNDER-REPORTING OF THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. THE
BUOY ALSO REPORTED A LOWEST PRESSURE OF 987.1 WITH WINDS OF 31
KT...SUGGESTING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 984 MB. THESE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT KYLE MAINTAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH
DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT DETERIORATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN AND COLDER WATERS...KYLE MAY NOW JUST BARELY BE AT
HURRICANE INTENSITY. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH OF A BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCE...I.E. THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CYCLONE... AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM IN A DAY OR TWO.
CONSEQUENTLY THE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY 72 HOURS...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.
INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER 030/22. IN SPITE OF THE RECENT
ACCELERATION...THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD
SPEED WILL SLOW WITHIN 12 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND THE STEERING WINDS WEAKEN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/2100Z 42.7N 66.1W 65 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 45.1N 64.7W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
24HR VT 29/1800Z 47.7N 63.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 30/0600Z 49.5N 63.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
48HR VT 30/1800Z 50.5N 63.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
WOCN31 CWHX 282100
HURRICANE KYLE INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 6.00 PM ADT
SUNDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2008.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT
AT 6.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
42.6 N AND LONGITUDE 66.5 W... ABOUT 77 NAUTICAL MILES OR 142 KM
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA. THE SURFACE LOCATION IS
ACCURATE TO WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES.
KYLE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH AT 23 KNOTS... 43 KM/H. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H AND CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 984 MB.
THE CENTRE OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CLIP WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA ...
HOWEVER AS KYLE UNDERGOES TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL STORM THE
EXACT LOCATION OF LANDFALL BECOMES LESS IMPORTANT.
HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR DIGBY YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE
COUNTIES OF NOVA SCOTIA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE FUNDY COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE REMAINING COASTAL AREAS
AROUND SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS REACHED THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
BEFORE 5PM ADT SUNDAY ... GUSTING TO 119 KM/H AT BACCARO POINT.
VOLUNTEER WEATHER OBSERVER AT CAPE SABLE ISLAND REPORTED BRANCHES
BREAKING AWAY FROM TREES. THE HIGHEST WINDS REPORTED FROM THE MARINE
DISTRICT WERE 126 KM/H FROM THE GEORGES BANK BUOY 44011 AT 1PM ADT.
HEAVY RAIN MOVED INTO SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHWESTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STORM
DRIED OUT AS IT BEGAN ITS TRANSITION PROCESS TO A POST-TROPICAL
STORM. AS A RESULT THE RAINFALL FOR NOVA SCOTIA MAY BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT.
FOR INLAND RAIN AND WIND WARNINGS AND MARINE WARNINGS PUBLIC AND
MARINE INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED FOR THEIR REGION BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.
END BOWYER/ROUSSEL
HURRICANE KYLE INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 6.00 PM ADT
SUNDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2008.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT
AT 6.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
42.6 N AND LONGITUDE 66.5 W... ABOUT 77 NAUTICAL MILES OR 142 KM
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA. THE SURFACE LOCATION IS
ACCURATE TO WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES.
KYLE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH AT 23 KNOTS... 43 KM/H. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H AND CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 984 MB.
THE CENTRE OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CLIP WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA ...
HOWEVER AS KYLE UNDERGOES TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL STORM THE
EXACT LOCATION OF LANDFALL BECOMES LESS IMPORTANT.
HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR DIGBY YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE
COUNTIES OF NOVA SCOTIA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE FUNDY COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE REMAINING COASTAL AREAS
AROUND SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS REACHED THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
BEFORE 5PM ADT SUNDAY ... GUSTING TO 119 KM/H AT BACCARO POINT.
VOLUNTEER WEATHER OBSERVER AT CAPE SABLE ISLAND REPORTED BRANCHES
BREAKING AWAY FROM TREES. THE HIGHEST WINDS REPORTED FROM THE MARINE
DISTRICT WERE 126 KM/H FROM THE GEORGES BANK BUOY 44011 AT 1PM ADT.
HEAVY RAIN MOVED INTO SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHWESTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STORM
DRIED OUT AS IT BEGAN ITS TRANSITION PROCESS TO A POST-TROPICAL
STORM. AS A RESULT THE RAINFALL FOR NOVA SCOTIA MAY BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT.
FOR INLAND RAIN AND WIND WARNINGS AND MARINE WARNINGS PUBLIC AND
MARINE INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED FOR THEIR REGION BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.
END BOWYER/ROUSSEL
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139066
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: Hurricane Kyle : Advisories
WTNT31 KNHC 282358
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
800 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2008
...KYLE POUNDING NOVA SCOTIA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF DIGBY...
YARMOUTH...AND SHELBURNE IN SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM STONINGTON MAINE
EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA...AND
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NOVA SCOTIA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KYLE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 44.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA JUST NORTH OF YARMOUTH...AND
ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...SOUTH OF SAINT JOHN.
KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/HR. A MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CENTER OF KYLE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KYLE
IS LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL LATER THIS EVENING.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF MAINE...NEW
BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES....ARE LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF NOVA SCOTIA.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...44.0 N...66.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 30 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KYLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
800 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2008
...KYLE POUNDING NOVA SCOTIA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF DIGBY...
YARMOUTH...AND SHELBURNE IN SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM STONINGTON MAINE
EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA...AND
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NOVA SCOTIA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KYLE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 44.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA JUST NORTH OF YARMOUTH...AND
ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...SOUTH OF SAINT JOHN.
KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/HR. A MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CENTER OF KYLE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KYLE
IS LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL LATER THIS EVENING.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF MAINE...NEW
BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES....ARE LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF NOVA SCOTIA.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...44.0 N...66.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 30 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139066
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: Hurricane Kyle : Advisories
WOCN31 CWHX 290000
HURRICANE KYLE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT SUNDAY
28 SEPTEMBER 2008.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT
...HURRICANE KYLE NEAR THE COAST OF YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES...
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.7 N
AND LONGITUDE 66.3 W... ABOUT 15 NAUTICAL MILES OR 30 KM
SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 986
MB. KYLE IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS... 24 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 28 9.00 PM 43.7N 66.3W 986 65 120
SEP 29 3.00 AM 45.3N 65.6W 992 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 9.00 AM 46.4N 64.9W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 3.00 PM 47.5N 64.4W 1001 35 65
SEP 29 9.00 PM 48.5N 63.8W 1001 25 46
SEP 30 3.00 AM 49.2N 63.3W 1002 25 46
SEP 30 9.00 AM 49.9N 62.9W 1003 25 46
SEP 30 3.00 PM 50.6N 62.4W 1003 20 37
SEP 30 9.00 PM 51.2N 62.0W 1003 20 37
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR DIGBY YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE
COUNTIES IN NOVA SCOTIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS MAINTAINED
FOR QUEENS COUNTY OF NOVA SCOTIA LUNENBURG COUNTY ANNAPOLIS COUNTY
SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY AND GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE
COUNTY IN NEW BRUNSWICK FUNDY NATIONAL PARK MONCTON AND
SOUTHEAST NEW BRUNSWICK. WIND GUSTS OF 90 TO 130 KM/H CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT EXCEPT GUSTS 70 TO 100 OVER THE NEW BRUNSWICK SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.
THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A STORM SURGE
WARNING FOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF
YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE
AND WAVE SETUP ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WATER LEVELS OF MORE
THAN 1.0 METRE ABOVE THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WHICH WILL BE
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE STORM ARRIVING
THIS EVENING. BASED ON HISTORICAL PRECEDENTS THIS COMBINATION
COULD CAUSE SOME COASTAL FLOODING.
IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER
TREE DAMAGE DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS OF KYLE EITHER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. DURING SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE
PAST THESE WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND DAMAGE TO
STRUCTURES DUE TO FALLEN TREES. ALL PREPARATIONS TO SECURE ANY LOOSE
OBJECTS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS TIME.
RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NEW BRUNSWICK
WHERE 50 TO 100 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH KYLE. THIS
IS IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT FELL PRIOR TO
KYLE'S ARRIVAL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED WEST OF WHERE
KYLE EVENTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL. EMO NEW BRUNSWICK REMINDS THE PUBLIC
THAT RAINFALL IN THESE AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAN
RESULT IN A RAPID WATER LEVEL INCREASE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS
AND CAUSED LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE GASPÉ
PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS OF QUÉBEC. THIS AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 50 MILLIMETRES AS POST TROPICAL STORM KYLE INTERACTS
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
ON ITS CURRENT TRACK KYLE WILL BE PASSING JUST WEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN YARMOUTH. THE RESULTING STORM
SURGE ON TOP OF THE DANGEROUS ROUGH SURF FROM KYLE MAY LEAD TO
SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO THE COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE
MAINLY IN YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE COUNTIES.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE GEORGES BANK BUOY REPORTED STRONG TO HURRICANE FORCE OF
69 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM CENTRE PASSED WEST OF THE
BUOY WHICH REPORTED AN 11.0 M SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS.
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE CONTINUED FOR GEORGES AND
BROWNS BANK AND FOR THE LURCHER MARINE AREA. STORM WARNINGS
ARE CONTINUED FOR FUNDY GRAND MANAN AND THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORE
WESTERN LAHAVE AND NORTHWESTERN WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE MARINE
AREA. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA WATERS AND GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WATERS.
5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS
A. ANALYSIS
REPORTS FROM BUOYS SATELLITES SHIPS AND LAND STATIONS INDICATES
THAT STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXISTS IN THE VICINITY
OF HURRICANE KYLE. AT 9 PM THIS EVENING THE ESTIMATED POSITION IS
JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA AND TRACKING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 23 KNOTS OR 43 KM/H.
THE CLOUD SHIELD IS TAKING A COMA SHAPE WITH FRONTAL LIKE
CLOUD AND RAIN BAND TO THE EAST THEN NORTH THEN THE WESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE CENTRE. THIS IMPLIES RAPID TRANSITIONING
OF HURRICANE KYLE AT THIS TIME. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS PROGNOSTICS REFERING TO THE EFFECT OF THE MUCH COLDER
WATER IN THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.
B. PROGNOSTIC
KYLE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD PASSING NEAR THE WEST
COAST OF YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES NOVA SCOTIA LATE THIS
SUNDAY EVENING THEN ACROSS THE BAY OF FUNDY BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL JUST EAST OF SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK AFTER MIDNIGHT
OR IN THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. KYLE IS EXISTING
BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC.
WE KEEP KYLE AT 65 KNOTS AT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BECAUSE OF ITS
PRESENT INTENSITY AND ITS FAST MOVEMENT. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE CONSISTENT ON MAINTAINING A BAROCLINIC LOW NEAR OUR TRACK
BUT WE CONTINUE TO USE SHORT TERM ANALYSIS AND DIAGNOSTIC AS WELL
AS THE ENSEMBLE AND MIAMI FOR GUIDANCE.
KYLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE COLD WATER OF
THE BAY OF FUNDY THEN RAPIDLY FINISH ITS TRANSITION INTO
A POST-TROPICAL LOW AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE
THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN QUÉBEC NORTH SHORE AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
C. PUBLIC WEATHER
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF THE STORM PATH AND COULD
BE UPWARDS TO 100 MM. THIS HEAVIEST RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME INCREASING THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THIS RAIN IS ON TOP OF ANY AMOUNTS THAT FELL PREVIOUSLY.
D. MARINE WEATHER
CHC TRAPPED FETCH MODEL INDICATES NOTHING HIGHER THAN 8 METRES
MOVING INTO CANADIAN WATERS BUT THIS IS BASED ON THE SHIFTED
TRACK AND LACK OF ALIGNMENT WITH PREVIOUSLY DEVELOPED WAVES.
HOWEVER A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF 10 METRES IS NOT FAR FETCHED.
PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
29/00Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 70 50 10 30
29/06Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 0 0 0 0
29/12Z 210 150 100 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
29/18Z 210 150 100 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
01/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END BOWYER/ROUSSEL/CAMPBELL
HURRICANE KYLE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT SUNDAY
28 SEPTEMBER 2008.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT
...HURRICANE KYLE NEAR THE COAST OF YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES...
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.7 N
AND LONGITUDE 66.3 W... ABOUT 15 NAUTICAL MILES OR 30 KM
SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 986
MB. KYLE IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS... 24 KM/H.
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 28 9.00 PM 43.7N 66.3W 986 65 120
SEP 29 3.00 AM 45.3N 65.6W 992 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 9.00 AM 46.4N 64.9W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 29 3.00 PM 47.5N 64.4W 1001 35 65
SEP 29 9.00 PM 48.5N 63.8W 1001 25 46
SEP 30 3.00 AM 49.2N 63.3W 1002 25 46
SEP 30 9.00 AM 49.9N 62.9W 1003 25 46
SEP 30 3.00 PM 50.6N 62.4W 1003 20 37
SEP 30 9.00 PM 51.2N 62.0W 1003 20 37
3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR DIGBY YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE
COUNTIES IN NOVA SCOTIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS MAINTAINED
FOR QUEENS COUNTY OF NOVA SCOTIA LUNENBURG COUNTY ANNAPOLIS COUNTY
SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY AND GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE
COUNTY IN NEW BRUNSWICK FUNDY NATIONAL PARK MONCTON AND
SOUTHEAST NEW BRUNSWICK. WIND GUSTS OF 90 TO 130 KM/H CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT EXCEPT GUSTS 70 TO 100 OVER THE NEW BRUNSWICK SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.
THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A STORM SURGE
WARNING FOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF
YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE
AND WAVE SETUP ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WATER LEVELS OF MORE
THAN 1.0 METRE ABOVE THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WHICH WILL BE
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE STORM ARRIVING
THIS EVENING. BASED ON HISTORICAL PRECEDENTS THIS COMBINATION
COULD CAUSE SOME COASTAL FLOODING.
IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER
TREE DAMAGE DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS OF KYLE EITHER THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. DURING SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE
PAST THESE WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN DOWNED POWER LINES AND DAMAGE TO
STRUCTURES DUE TO FALLEN TREES. ALL PREPARATIONS TO SECURE ANY LOOSE
OBJECTS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS TIME.
RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NEW BRUNSWICK
WHERE 50 TO 100 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH KYLE. THIS
IS IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT FELL PRIOR TO
KYLE'S ARRIVAL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED WEST OF WHERE
KYLE EVENTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL. EMO NEW BRUNSWICK REMINDS THE PUBLIC
THAT RAINFALL IN THESE AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAN
RESULT IN A RAPID WATER LEVEL INCREASE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS
AND CAUSED LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE GASPÉ
PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS OF QUÉBEC. THIS AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 50 MILLIMETRES AS POST TROPICAL STORM KYLE INTERACTS
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
ON ITS CURRENT TRACK KYLE WILL BE PASSING JUST WEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN YARMOUTH. THE RESULTING STORM
SURGE ON TOP OF THE DANGEROUS ROUGH SURF FROM KYLE MAY LEAD TO
SHORELINE EROSION AND DAMAGE TO THE COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE
MAINLY IN YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE COUNTIES.
4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE GEORGES BANK BUOY REPORTED STRONG TO HURRICANE FORCE OF
69 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM CENTRE PASSED WEST OF THE
BUOY WHICH REPORTED AN 11.0 M SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS.
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE CONTINUED FOR GEORGES AND
BROWNS BANK AND FOR THE LURCHER MARINE AREA. STORM WARNINGS
ARE CONTINUED FOR FUNDY GRAND MANAN AND THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORE
WESTERN LAHAVE AND NORTHWESTERN WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE MARINE
AREA. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA WATERS AND GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WATERS.
5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS
A. ANALYSIS
REPORTS FROM BUOYS SATELLITES SHIPS AND LAND STATIONS INDICATES
THAT STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXISTS IN THE VICINITY
OF HURRICANE KYLE. AT 9 PM THIS EVENING THE ESTIMATED POSITION IS
JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA AND TRACKING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 23 KNOTS OR 43 KM/H.
THE CLOUD SHIELD IS TAKING A COMA SHAPE WITH FRONTAL LIKE
CLOUD AND RAIN BAND TO THE EAST THEN NORTH THEN THE WESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE CENTRE. THIS IMPLIES RAPID TRANSITIONING
OF HURRICANE KYLE AT THIS TIME. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS PROGNOSTICS REFERING TO THE EFFECT OF THE MUCH COLDER
WATER IN THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.
B. PROGNOSTIC
KYLE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD PASSING NEAR THE WEST
COAST OF YARMOUTH AND DIGBY COUNTIES NOVA SCOTIA LATE THIS
SUNDAY EVENING THEN ACROSS THE BAY OF FUNDY BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL JUST EAST OF SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK AFTER MIDNIGHT
OR IN THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. KYLE IS EXISTING
BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC.
WE KEEP KYLE AT 65 KNOTS AT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BECAUSE OF ITS
PRESENT INTENSITY AND ITS FAST MOVEMENT. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE CONSISTENT ON MAINTAINING A BAROCLINIC LOW NEAR OUR TRACK
BUT WE CONTINUE TO USE SHORT TERM ANALYSIS AND DIAGNOSTIC AS WELL
AS THE ENSEMBLE AND MIAMI FOR GUIDANCE.
KYLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE COLD WATER OF
THE BAY OF FUNDY THEN RAPIDLY FINISH ITS TRANSITION INTO
A POST-TROPICAL LOW AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE
THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN QUÉBEC NORTH SHORE AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
C. PUBLIC WEATHER
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF THE STORM PATH AND COULD
BE UPWARDS TO 100 MM. THIS HEAVIEST RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME INCREASING THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THIS RAIN IS ON TOP OF ANY AMOUNTS THAT FELL PREVIOUSLY.
D. MARINE WEATHER
CHC TRAPPED FETCH MODEL INDICATES NOTHING HIGHER THAN 8 METRES
MOVING INTO CANADIAN WATERS BUT THIS IS BASED ON THE SHIFTED
TRACK AND LACK OF ALIGNMENT WITH PREVIOUSLY DEVELOPED WAVES.
HOWEVER A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF 10 METRES IS NOT FAR FETCHED.
PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
29/00Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 70 50 10 30
29/06Z 210 150 100 120 120 90 30 60 0 0 0 0
29/12Z 210 150 100 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
29/18Z 210 150 100 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
01/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END BOWYER/ROUSSEL/CAMPBELL
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Kyle : Advisories
199
WTNT21 KNHC 290231
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
0300 UTC MON SEP 29 2008
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST
OF MAINE IS DISCONTINUED.
THE HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF DIGBY...
YARMOUTH...AND SHELBURNE IN SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK OVERNIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 65.9W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 23 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE 90SE 60SW 45NW.
34 KT.......210NE 210SE 110SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 240SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 65.9W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 66.2W
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 47.2N 64.6W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 49.5N 63.7W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 50.6N 63.7W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 51.5N 64.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.8N 65.9W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Last Advisory by NHC
WTNT21 KNHC 290231
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
0300 UTC MON SEP 29 2008
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST
OF MAINE IS DISCONTINUED.
THE HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF DIGBY...
YARMOUTH...AND SHELBURNE IN SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK OVERNIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 65.9W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 23 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE 90SE 60SW 45NW.
34 KT.......210NE 210SE 110SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 240SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 65.9W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 66.2W
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 47.2N 64.6W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 49.5N 63.7W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 50.6N 63.7W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 51.5N 64.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.8N 65.9W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Last Advisory by NHC
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