WTPZ45 KNHC 110846
TCDEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NORBERT HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS RE-STRENGTHENED INTO A MAJOR
HURRICANE. A 23-NMI DIAMETER ROUND EYE HAS BECOME EVEN MORE DISTINCT
AND IS EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T5.5/102 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...BUT SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE NOT FAR FROM BEING CLASSIFIED
AS T6.0/115 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KT. OUTFLOW IS
GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/13. NORBERT REMAINS ON TRACK...
AND GRADUAL RECURVATURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED NOW THAT THE HURRICANE HAS PASSED NORTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...NORBERT SHOULD
BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS....WHICH CALLS FOR LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN BAHIA MAGDALENA AND SANTA FE.
THE BETTER DEFINED EYE...COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION ENCIRCLING THE
EYE...IMPROVING OUTFLOW...AND SSTS NEAR 28C SUGGEST THAT NORBERT
COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT MORE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER THIS MORNING. AFTER
LANDFALL...THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SHOULD INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING...
BUT NORBERT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
MAKES ITS SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO TONIGHT. JUST HOW STRONG NORBERT WILL BE AT THE SECOND
LANDFALL WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW STRONG IT IS WHEN IT MAKES
LANDFALL ALONG THE BAJA COAST THIS MORNING.
AFTER NORBERT MAKES ITS SECOND LANDFALL...THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAIN RANGE SHOULD QUICKLY DECOUPLE THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
WILL BECOME STRETCHED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS...THIS MAY BE
OVERDONE GIVEN THAT NORBERT IS A STRONGER CYCLONE. AS NORBERT
CROSSES NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS...
ITS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BE ADVECTED WELL AHEAD OF THE
DISSIPATING CYCLONE CIRCULATION...AND INTERACTION WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IN THE REGION COULD POSSIBLY CREATE A HEAVY RAINFALL
SCENARIO NOT UNLIKE THAT OF HURRICANE TICO OF 1983.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0900Z 23.5N 112.5W 100 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 25.5N 111.4W 80 KT...INLAND BAJA
24HR VT 12/0600Z 28.3N 109.2W 35 KT...INLAND MEXICO
36HR VT 12/1800Z 31.5N 106.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
48HR VT 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
EPAC : Norbert: Tropical Depression - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139081
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: EPAC : Norbert: Hurricane - Discussion
WTPZ35 KNHC 111148
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
...NORBERT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...NEARING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA...AND FOR THE
EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREAS SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LA PAZ.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...
130 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO AND ABOUT 130 MILES...210
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO.
NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
A MOTION BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING...
THEN MOVE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAKE A
SECOND LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN
FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL IN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...BUT NORBERT COULD STILL BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES
A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.
NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. IN ADDITION...NORBERT COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
BEGINNING TONIGHT.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF WHERE NORBERT MAKES LANDFALL.
REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...23.6 N...112.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
...NORBERT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...NEARING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA...AND FOR THE
EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREAS SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LA PAZ.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...
130 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO AND ABOUT 130 MILES...210
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO.
NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
A MOTION BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING...
THEN MOVE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAKE A
SECOND LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN
FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL IN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...BUT NORBERT COULD STILL BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES
A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.
NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. IN ADDITION...NORBERT COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
BEGINNING TONIGHT.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF WHERE NORBERT MAKES LANDFALL.
REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...23.6 N...112.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: EPAC : Norbert: Hurricane - Discussion
Cabo radar 'fuera de servicio'.
But judging from satellite, if Norbert doesn't wobble more Eastward, the more populated areas of San Jose de los Cabos and Cabo San Lucas should just stay outside the eyewall and avoid the worst of the storm.
But judging from satellite, if Norbert doesn't wobble more Eastward, the more populated areas of San Jose de los Cabos and Cabo San Lucas should just stay outside the eyewall and avoid the worst of the storm.
0 likes
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139081
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC : Norbert: Hurricane - Discussion
WTPZ35 KNHC 111448
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
...NORBERT SOON TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA...AND FOR THE
EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LA PAZ.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...
70 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO AND ABOUT 100 MILES...
165 KM...WEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO.
NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
A MOTION BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL IN
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS NORBERT CROSSES BAJA CALIFORNIA...
BUT NORBERT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES
A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY
INTO NORBERT THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.
NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. IN ADDITION...NORBERT COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO...NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WHERE NORBERT MAKES
LANDFALL.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...24.3 N...111.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
5 KNHC 111449
TCDEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF NORBERT HAS GRADUALLY DEGRADED THIS
MORNING...AS THE EYE HAS FILLED IN. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A DECREASE
OF THE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES. A BLEND OF THE
DVORAK DATA T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS...HOWEVER...YIELDS AN
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90 KT...OR CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH.
NORBERT IS MOVING ON A MOTION BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST
AT ABOUT 13 KT...AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. THE HURRICANE IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MAKE A FINAL
LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO THIS EVENING. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SOLUTION...BUT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST NORBERT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND USES
A BLEND OF THE DIFFERING SPEEDS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
THE CYCLONE...BUT NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT
MOVES INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO NORBERT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF NORBERT'S INTENSITY. AFTER
LANDFALL IN NORTHWEST MEXICO...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/1500Z 24.3N 111.9W 90 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 110.4W 70 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 30.0N 107.8W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
...NORBERT SOON TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA...AND FOR THE
EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LA PAZ.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...
70 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO AND ABOUT 100 MILES...
165 KM...WEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO.
NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
A MOTION BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL IN
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS NORBERT CROSSES BAJA CALIFORNIA...
BUT NORBERT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES
A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY
INTO NORBERT THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.
NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. IN ADDITION...NORBERT COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO...NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WHERE NORBERT MAKES
LANDFALL.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...24.3 N...111.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
5 KNHC 111449
TCDEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF NORBERT HAS GRADUALLY DEGRADED THIS
MORNING...AS THE EYE HAS FILLED IN. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A DECREASE
OF THE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES. A BLEND OF THE
DVORAK DATA T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS...HOWEVER...YIELDS AN
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90 KT...OR CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH.
NORBERT IS MOVING ON A MOTION BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST
AT ABOUT 13 KT...AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. THE HURRICANE IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MAKE A FINAL
LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO THIS EVENING. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SOLUTION...BUT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST NORBERT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND USES
A BLEND OF THE DIFFERING SPEEDS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
THE CYCLONE...BUT NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT
MOVES INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO NORBERT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF NORBERT'S INTENSITY. AFTER
LANDFALL IN NORTHWEST MEXICO...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/1500Z 24.3N 111.9W 90 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 110.4W 70 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 30.0N 107.8W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139081
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC : Norbert: Hurricane - Discussion
WTPZ65 KNHC 111654
TCUEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
955 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT
MADE LANDFALL NEAR PUERTO CHARLEY ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AROUND 930 AM PDT...1630 UTC...WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM
WINDS OF 105 MPH...OR CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. PUERTO CHARLEY IS LOCATED BETWEEN SANTA FE AND
BAHIA MAGDALENA.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
TCUEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
955 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT
MADE LANDFALL NEAR PUERTO CHARLEY ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AROUND 930 AM PDT...1630 UTC...WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM
WINDS OF 105 MPH...OR CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. PUERTO CHARLEY IS LOCATED BETWEEN SANTA FE AND
BAHIA MAGDALENA.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
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Re: EPAC : Norbert: Hurricane - Discussion
Should be entering warmer Gulf Of California waters.
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: EPAC : Norbert: Hurricane - Discussion
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 120232
TCDEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
AN AIR FORCE PLANE WENT INTO NORBERT AROUND 2100 UTC AND FOUND
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 90 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 67 KT...AND AN
EXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 958 MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE EYE
HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT ON SATELLITE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 75 KT IN LINE WITH TAFB/SAB CLASSIFICATIONS. THE
PLANE ALSO FOUND THE CENTER A LITTLE WEST OF THE SATELLITE
FIXES...SO I'M GOING TO LEAN A LITTLE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE
INITIAL POSITION. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE SYSTEM
MAKES LANDFALL IN AN HOUR OR TWO...AND A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK OF
NORBERT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE FROM NORBERT SHOULD
SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
INCIDENTALLY...THE CIMSS ADT TECHNIQUE EARLIER ESTIMATED A PRESSURE
OF 957.5 MB RIGHT BEFORE LANDFALL IN BAJA...SO THAT PRESSURE
ESTIMATE APPEARED TO MATCH NICELY WITH THE AIRCRAFT DATA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0300Z 26.5N 109.5W 75 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 28.6N 107.6W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
WTPZ45 KNHC 120232
TCDEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
AN AIR FORCE PLANE WENT INTO NORBERT AROUND 2100 UTC AND FOUND
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 90 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 67 KT...AND AN
EXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 958 MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE EYE
HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT ON SATELLITE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 75 KT IN LINE WITH TAFB/SAB CLASSIFICATIONS. THE
PLANE ALSO FOUND THE CENTER A LITTLE WEST OF THE SATELLITE
FIXES...SO I'M GOING TO LEAN A LITTLE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE
INITIAL POSITION. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE SYSTEM
MAKES LANDFALL IN AN HOUR OR TWO...AND A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK OF
NORBERT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE FROM NORBERT SHOULD
SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
INCIDENTALLY...THE CIMSS ADT TECHNIQUE EARLIER ESTIMATED A PRESSURE
OF 957.5 MB RIGHT BEFORE LANDFALL IN BAJA...SO THAT PRESSURE
ESTIMATE APPEARED TO MATCH NICELY WITH THE AIRCRAFT DATA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0300Z 26.5N 109.5W 75 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 28.6N 107.6W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
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dwsqos2
Re: EPAC : Norbert: Hurricane - Discussion
Observations from Los Mochis:
METAR MMLM 120149Z 18050G60KT 2SM +SHRA OVC015 29/19 A2939 RMK 8/7//
METAR MMLM 120149Z 18050G60KT 2SM +SHRA OVC015 29/19 A2939 RMK 8/7//
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HenkL
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2401
- Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:33 pm
- Location: Groningen, The Netherlands
- Contact:
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 120850
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MEXICAN RADARS INDICATE THAT NORBERT MADE
LANDFALL AROUND 0400 UTC OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE
SONORA STATE OF MEXICO WITH AN INTENSITY OF AROUND 75 KT. NORBERT
IS NOW WELL INLAND OVER THE VERY HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...AND IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED BELOW
HURRICANE STATUS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STILL APPEARS
WELL-ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT THIS IS LIKELY
SHORT-LIVED SINCE THE CIRCULATION SHOULD SPIN DOWN RAPIDLY AS IT
MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL PROBABLY
DISSIPATE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM NORBERT
IS ALREADY SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM NORBERT
OR ITS REMNANTS WILL SPREAD OVER THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHEASTWARD...045/17...AS NORBERT IS CAUGHT IN
THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS GENERAL MOTION... WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCELERATION...IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISSIPATES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0900Z 27.5N 108.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 30.5N 105.5W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTPZ45 KNHC 120850
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MEXICAN RADARS INDICATE THAT NORBERT MADE
LANDFALL AROUND 0400 UTC OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE
SONORA STATE OF MEXICO WITH AN INTENSITY OF AROUND 75 KT. NORBERT
IS NOW WELL INLAND OVER THE VERY HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...AND IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED BELOW
HURRICANE STATUS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STILL APPEARS
WELL-ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT THIS IS LIKELY
SHORT-LIVED SINCE THE CIRCULATION SHOULD SPIN DOWN RAPIDLY AS IT
MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL PROBABLY
DISSIPATE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM NORBERT
IS ALREADY SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM NORBERT
OR ITS REMNANTS WILL SPREAD OVER THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHEASTWARD...045/17...AS NORBERT IS CAUGHT IN
THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS GENERAL MOTION... WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCELERATION...IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISSIPATES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0900Z 27.5N 108.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 30.5N 105.5W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139081
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: EPAC : Norbert: Tropical Depression - Discussion
WTPZ45 KNHC 121432
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2008
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OVER NORBERT HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE THIS
MORNING AND IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO. A 12 HOUR
FORECAST POINT IS SHOWN FOR CONTINUITY BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT
THE CIRCULATION WILL EXIST AT THAT TIME.
THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON NORBERT. THE REMNANTS OF THIS
SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S.
PLAINS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THESE AREAS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/1500Z 29.6N 106.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 33.0N 103.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2008
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OVER NORBERT HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE THIS
MORNING AND IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO. A 12 HOUR
FORECAST POINT IS SHOWN FOR CONTINUITY BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT
THE CIRCULATION WILL EXIST AT THAT TIME.
THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON NORBERT. THE REMNANTS OF THIS
SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S.
PLAINS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THESE AREAS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/1500Z 29.6N 106.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 33.0N 103.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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