EPAC : Norbert: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Ed Mahmoud]

The satellite appearance, especially the -70 to colder than -80ºC cloud tops, degraded significantly between Norberts peak and when the recon got there. I have no idea what peak intensity is, and we'll never know, but Cat 3 seems likely.

BTW, I can see shear starting to impinge from the SW, but Norbert still looks pretty good on satellite. If the Baja Peninsula was the Florida Peninsula, this board would be jumping this morning.

[Ed Mahmoud]

geez... Norbert really looks like a Cat 3 or more.... i wonder why the winds are so low with such a great structure?

The discussion yesterday mentioned recon finding a somewhat stable layer, that may have kept the hurricane from effectively mixing its winds.

[HURAKAN]

[Ed Mahmoud]

-80ºC cloud tops. I think yesterday's recon caught Norbert at a down period.

[Chacor]

138
WTPZ25 KNHC 101454
TCMEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
1500 UTC FRI OCT 10 2008

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH
OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE
PENINSULA TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM
TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD
AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LORETO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 113.4W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 113.4W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.4W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.9N 113.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.9N 112.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.1N 110.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 28.3N 109.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 113.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Chacor]

WTPZ35 KNHC 101457
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008

...NORBERT STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED
FOR MEXICO...

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH
OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE
PENINSULA TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM
TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD
AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LORETO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES
...445 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FASTER MOTION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORBERT WILL
BE NEARING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE NORBERT REACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE NORBERT AROUND MIDDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.

NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF WHERE NORBERT MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...20.6 N...113.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Chacor]

WTPZ45 KNHC 101500
TCDEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008

A HEALTHY RING OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN WRAPPING AROUND THE EYE
OF NORBERT...WHICH HAS SHRUNK TO 10-15 NM IN DIAMETER. SATELLITE
IMAGERY STILL SUGGESTS THAT THERE ARE TWO EYEWALLS APPROXIMATELY 15
AND 50 NM AWAY FROM THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THIS NEW CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MIGHT FINALLY ALLOW THE OUTER EYEWALL TO BECOME THE MORE
DOMINANT FEATURE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
HAVE RISEN TO T5.0...OR 90 KT...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED
CONSERVATIVELY TO 85 KT JUST IN CASE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL
NOT REACHING THE SURFACE. A BETTER JUDGMENT ON THE INTENSITY CAN
BE MADE ONCE THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHES
NORBERT AROUND MIDDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND EVEN THE
GFS NOW AGREES WITH THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS ON LANDFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AS
SUCH...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POINTS ARE ONLY GIVEN THROUGH 48 HOURS
SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF NORBERT WILL PROBABLY NOT SURVIVE A
CROSSING OF THE SIERRA MADRES. HOWEVER...THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS
AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL STILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS
UP TO LANDFALL SINCE THESE MODELS APPEAR TO BE ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED INCREASE OF VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEW
FORECAST IS ONLY 5 KT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...DUE TO
THE RECENT APPARENT STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY AT 36 HOURS...
AFTER NORBERT HAS CROSSED THE BAJA PENINSULA AND IS OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA...IS STILL AT HURRICANE STRENGTH ALTHOUGH IS NOT AS
HIGH AS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AT THAT TIME. THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WAS NOT DESIGNATED
AS A HURRICANE WARNING SINCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND THESE WINDS WILL BE
BLOWING OFFSHORE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 20.6N 113.4W 85 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 21.9N 113.4W 80 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 23.9N 112.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 26.1N 110.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 28.3N 109.0W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[HURAKAN]

[Just Joshing You]

What is the AHI on Norbert?

[RL3AO]

What is the AHI on Norbert?

Didn't pass all seven steps.

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/10/08 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 102035
TCDEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008

UNFORTUNATELY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT THAT WAS
SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAD TO BE CANCELED DUE TO AN EQUIPMENT PROBLEM.
NONETHELESS...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
NOW 90 KT AND 102 KT RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED CONSERVATIVELY TO 90 KT. YESTERDAY'S HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT
INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE NOT AS STRONG AS THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAD SUGGESTED...SO I AM LOATH TO BRING THE
INTENSITY ANY HIGHER THAN THE LOW END OF THE ESTIMATES. MICROWAVE
AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE INNER EYEWALL
HAS PROBABLY COLLAPSED...AND IS NOW ROTATING WITHIN THE LARGE
EYE...SO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT MAY BE COMPLETE.

AGAIN...THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS HAD TO BE NUDGED UPWARD TO
REFLECT THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE NEW FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS CLOSELY WITHIN THE FIRST 24 HOURS
AND SHOWS A SLOW WEAKENING AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR BEGINS TO
INCREASE. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TO 30-40 KT BY 36 HOURS AND NEAR 50 KT
BY 48 HOURS...SO NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT
CROSSES THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. NORBERT IS
FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL STORM BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO...BUT THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE INDICATES
THERE IS STILL A 40% CHANCE THAT IT COULD BE A HURRICANE AT THAT
POINT...SO A HURRICANE WATCH WAS REQUIRED FOR THAT AREA. RAPID
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE NORBERT MAKES ITS SECOND LANDFALL...WITH
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEING SHEARED QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PROBABLY BEING BLOCKED OR DESTROYED BY THE
SIERRA MADRES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 21.4N 113.4W 90 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 22.9N 113.0W 85 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 24.9N 111.6W 70 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA
36HR VT 12/0600Z 27.1N 109.8W 60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 12/1800Z 28.3N 108.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN

[Just Joshing You]

If there's a storm this year that looks close to the A word.. it's Norbert.

[CrazyC83]

I do agree that the intensity is lower than what the Dvorak suggests. 85-90 kt seems right considering the differences.

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 102347
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
500 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008

...NORBERT TARGETS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS
AND FOR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO
LORETO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES
...370 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS
TRACK...NORBERT IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE OVER
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORBERT WILL THEN MAKE
A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO ALTHOUGH NORBERT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE BAJA
PENINSULA AS A HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...EAST
OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM...FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF WHERE NORBERT MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...21.7 N...113.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

[Chacor]

Looks like that shear is finally here.

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 110232
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF NORBERT APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS TO A
HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 8 PM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO TO A HURRICANE WARNING.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
LORETO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LA PAZ.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES
...335 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT
180 MILES...290 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.

NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED FORECAST ON SATURDAY. NORBERT IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE NORBERT MAKES
LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THAT
LANDFALL BUT NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A HURRICANE AS IT
MAKES A SECOND LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
NORBERT COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF WHERE NORBERT MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...22.3 N...113.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 110233
TCDEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT NORBERT CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED
EYE SURROUNDED BY COLD CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE EYEWALL.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES NOW SHOW ONE DISTINCT EYEWALL SO THE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN COMPLETED. THERE HAVE
BEEN NO CHANGES TO THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN 90 KT. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A BIT
ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...HERALDING AN INCREASE IN SHEAR
SOON...BUT PROBABLY NOT SOON ENOUGH TO CAUSE NORBERT TO WEAKEN MUCH
BEFORE LANDFALL. A FASTER DECREASE IN STRENGTH SHOULD OCCUR
TOMORROW AFTER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND AND THE
SHEAR INCREASES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WEAKENING MIGHT NOT BE
FAST ENOUGH TO BRING THE SYSTEM BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO...SO A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THAT AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM
MODEL.

THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
ACCLERATED A BIT TO ABOUT 10 KT. A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD OCCUR TOMORROW DUE TO STEERING
FROM A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE NHC
FORECAST IS NOT APPRECIABLY DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST...THERE WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF NORBERT BUT
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES COULD
BE SIGNIFICANT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 22.3N 113.1W 90 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 23.9N 112.3W 85 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 26.3N 110.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 29.0N 108.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
48HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

[bob rulz]

It seems with the canceled recon flight we missed another chance to catch Norbert at a peak. That's too bad.

[Cyclenall]

Norbert looks like what Wilma looked like before passing over Florida since there is a trough taking it. I think my prediction of it restregnthening back to CAT2 was spot on, but then the 2nd part about it weakening faster then expected fell flat!

That part about recon having to cancel its mission is a real bummer. Recon was needed pretty badly for this one.

If there's a storm this year that looks close to the A word.. it's Norbert.

I thought Ike (a day before it hit eastern Cuba) looked a lot more A word then this did.

[RattleMan]

It's a major again:

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 110834
TCMEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
0900 UTC SAT OCT 11 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA...AND FOR THE
EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREAS SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LA PAZ.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 112.5W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 55NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 112.5W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 112.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.5N 111.4W...INLAND BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.3N 109.2W...INLAND MAINLAND MEXICO
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.5N 106.6W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 112.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[somethingfunny]

How do they know?

Oh well....Norbert is a very dangerous storm regardless. Hopefully everybody in the Baja has prepared as best they can because the center will be on top of them shortly.