EPAC : Norbert: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[bob rulz]

How often do Pacific storms get recon? I don't recall it happening very often.

I'm glad there's finally a classic East Pacific storm to follow. The East Pacific has been kind of dull this year...

[Cyclenall]

I don't think its 115 knots anymore personally, I think that value is a bit low now. It seems like a 120-125 knot CAT4. Wasn't recon suppose to be in this today?

[bombarderoazul]

It seems that during this time of year EPAC storms tend to impact land more often. Norbert is looking very nice, I wonder how strong he will get?

[RL3AO]

How often do Pacific storms get recon? I don't recall it happening very often.

I'm glad there's finally a classic East Pacific storm to follow. The East Pacific has been kind of dull this year...

Usually when its a hurricane threatening land. I think Henriette was the only EPac storm last year with recon.

[pojo]

How often do Pacific storms get recon? I don't recall it happening very often.

Recon will fly if the storm has a potential to threaten the US as inland flooding threat. Flossie was the only Pacific storm to have recon last year. No we don't forward deploy... we fly out of Keesler.

[RL3AO]

How often do Pacific storms get recon? I don't recall it happening very often.

Recon will fly if the storm has a potential to threaten the US as inland flooding threat. Flossie was the only Pacific storm to have recon last year. No we don't forward deploy... we fly out of Keesler.

I'm certain you guys flew into Henriette last year.


EDIT: Heres the thread. - http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=60&t=97678

[Aslkahuna]

On that forecast track an inland flooding threat from Norbert is almost a 100% guarantee for NM and TX and possibly into OK and KS.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

[pojo]

Recon will fly if the storm has a potential to threaten the US as inland flooding threat. Flossie was the only Pacific storm to have recon last year. No we don't forward deploy... we fly out of Keesler.

I'm certain you guys flew into Henriette last year.


EDIT: Heres the thread. - http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=60&t=97678

sorry.... these last couple of months have been a blur... I'm lucky I know where my flight suit is.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 OCT 2008 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 16:55:00 N Lon : 111:30:07 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 942.4mb/122.2kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.1 6.1 6.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 28 km

Center Temp : +14.3C Cloud Region Temp : -62.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[RattleMan]

Intensity at 1800z has been changed to 120kt:

EP, 15, 2008100818, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1109W, 120, 945, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 125, 125, 110, 1008, 225, 20, 140, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D, 12, NEQ, 210, 180, 150, 180
EP, 15, 2008100818, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1109W, 120, 945, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 50, 50, 1008, 225, 20, 140, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D, 12, NEQ, 210, 180, 150, 180
EP, 15, 2008100818, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1109W, 120, 945, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 30, 30, 1008, 225, 20, 140, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D, 12, NEQ, 210, 180, 150, 180
EP, 15, 2008100900, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1116W, 115, 948, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 125, 125, 110, 1007, 250, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
EP, 15, 2008100900, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1116W, 115, 948, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 50, 50, 1007, 250, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
EP, 15, 2008100900, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1116W, 115, 948, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 30, 30, 1007, 250, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,

[DESTRUCTION5]

This a little Odd for Oct in the EPAC?

[HURAKAN]

Impressive cyclone.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 090231
TCDEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 PM PDT WED OCT 08 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A RATHER IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW FANNING AWAY
FROM THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A
LITTLE IN THE EYEWALL RECENTLY...DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS
HAVEN'T CHANGED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 115 KT. THE
HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS AND
WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SHEAR IS THEN FORECAST TO
INCREASE DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH AND...COMBINED WITH
SOME COOLER WATERS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES
LAND. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IT WILL LOSE STRENGTH.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHING
BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOW A RATHER RAPID
DROP OFF IN THE WINDS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE SHADED A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE HURRICANE HAS NOW TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND IS MOVING AT
ABOUT 8 KT. NORBERT IS ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
RIDGING OVER MEXICO. LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW...THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH INTO A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL MODELS FORECAST A RATHER DEEP TROUGH DIVING
INTO THE WESTERN USA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER THERE IS A BIG DISCREPANCY ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE RESPONDING TO THE TROUGH. THE CORE OF THE
DIFFERENCES REALLY REVOLVES AROUND IF THE NORBERT STAYS INTACT
UNDER INCREASING SHEAR. AN INTACT SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY JUST
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT A RAPIDLY
WEAKENING ONE MIGHT SHEAR APART AND LEAVE A WEAKER SYSTEM BEHIND
BEFORE A MEXICAN LANDFALL...LIKE THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. GIVEN HOW
STRONG THE SYSTEM IS NOW AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
IT...NORBERT SEEMS UNLIKELY TO WEAKEN TO THAT DEGREE BEFORE
LANDFALL. THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN ON THE FASTER
GUIDANCE AND GIVES LESS WEIGHT TO THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS/
ECMWF MODELS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS AHEAD OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 17.1N 111.8W 115 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 17.8N 112.6W 115 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 18.9N 113.4W 110 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 20.5N 113.6W 100 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 22.5N 113.2W 90 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 28.0N 109.0W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 13/0000Z 35.0N 104.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
120HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[CrazyC83]

I agree with 120 kt then. It might be a touch weaker now so 115 kt seems right.

[Cyclenall]

It was 120 knots in between the advisories in this case me thinks. Right now it looks like 105 knots.

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
200 AM PDT THU OCT 09 2008

...NORBERT A LITTLE WEAKER BUT STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE...

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF NORBERT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST OR ABOUT 410 MILES
...660 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...17.5 N...112.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

Still a potent hurricane but looking ragged at the moment.

[vbhoutex]

What I find amazing about Norbert is the fact it has a chance to be a minimal TS when it enters W TX.

[Ed Mahmoud]

What I find amazing about Norbert is the fact it has a chance to be a minimal TS when it enters W TX.

I don't know how the low level center can make it across the Sierra Madre. Elevations average above 1500 meters (~850 mb). It's 850 mb center may bring tropical storm conditions in the Mexican highlands, but peaks ranging from 1800 meters to 3600 meters should, in my amateur opinion, mean when Norbert starts moving into Texas, it won't have much of a low level center left.

A West Texas/New Mexico rain event, on the other hand...