EPAC : Norbert: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't know how much time in Norbert a plane from Keesler would have...

[cycloneye]

WTPZ35 KNHC 091441
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 AM PDT THU OCT 09 2008

...NORBERT WEAKENS A LITTLE...BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF NORBERT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES
...620 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. NORBERT IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...18.0 N...112.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

WTPZ45 KNHC 091457
TCDEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 AM PDT THU OCT 09 2008

A 0906 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED THAT NORBERT MAY BE
UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. HOWEVER...RECENT GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION WITHIN THE INNER EYEWALL
MAKING A COMEBACK AND THE OUTER CONVECTIVE RING BECOMING LESS
DISTINCT. STILL...THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS THINNED...AND
CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AS WELL AS THE ADT HAVE FALLEN TO 5.5.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO 100 KT. THE
INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE CONTROLLED BY INTERNAL DYNAMICS FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO IF IN FACT NORBERT IS GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT. SINCE FORECAST SKILL IN THESE SCENARIOS IS NOT THAT
GREAT...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT FOR THE SHORT TERM AS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS
LOW. AFTER 36 HOURS OR SO...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
NORBERT GETS CLOSER TO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE HURRICANE
APPROACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA.

NORBERT HAS BEEN WOBBLING A LITTLE BIT BUT IS MOVING AT AN AVERAGE
MOTION OF 320/6. IN GENERAL...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN
DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ENDED UP
A LITTLE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ONLY THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW NORBERT FAILING TO REACH THE BAJA PENINSULA DUE TO STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR DECOUPLING THE SYSTEM...AND LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION MEANDERING OFFSHORE. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...IT HAS HAPPENED BEFORE...THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES
TO LIE CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS AND STILL BRINGS
NORBERT ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA TO MAINLAND MEXICO. A 96-HOUR
POSITION IS NO LONGER GIVEN SINCE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT A LOW-LEVEL
CENTER WOULD BE ABLE TO SURVIVE THE HIGH RUGGED TERRAIN OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY DAY 4 AND 5.

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE NORBERT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 18.0N 112.7W 100 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 18.6N 113.4W 100 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 19.8N 114.0W 100 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 21.5N 113.9W 90 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 23.1N 112.9W 80 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 27.5N 109.5W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Chacor]

Central eye is hanging on.

[CrazyC83]

Much weaker than first thought. Recon finds only a Cat 1 with a 971mb pressure. Rapid weakening or overestimation?

[RL3AO]

Its starting an EWRC.

[bob rulz]

Much weaker than first thought. Recon finds only a Cat 1 with a 971mb pressure. Rapid weakening or overestimation?

It could be both. I wish it could've gone in yesterday.

[Derek Ortt]

often, Dvorak over-estimates EPAC cyclones

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 092033
TCDEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
200 PM PDT THU OCT 09 2008

SOMETIMES APPEARANCES ARE NOT WHAT THEY SEEM. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE
ESTIMATES YIELD A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 90-100 KT...THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER FLYING THROUGH NORBERT FOUND WINDS THAT WERE MUCH
LOWER. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MEASURED WAS 83 KT WITHIN THE
OUTER EYEWALL IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WHILE THE SFMR ONLY
INDICATED WINDS NEAR 65 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80
KT...BUT THIS IS LIKELY GENEROUS. DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT
THERE MIGHT BE A STABLE LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 800 MB THAT IS
PREVENTING VERTICAL MIXING OF THE STRONG WINDS FROM FLIGHT LEVEL.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER INITIAL WIND SPEED. SINCE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK UP UNTIL THE
BAJA COAST...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST 24
HOURS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. THEREAFTER...VERTICAL SHEAR
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...AND NORBERT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN A LITTLE
FASTER. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST POINT JUST OFFSHORE THE BAJA
PENINSULA STILL INDICATES NORBERT AS A HURRICANE FOR CONTINUITY
ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD HAVE WEAKENED TO A
TROPICAL STORM BY THEN. ONCE NORBERT REACHES MAINLAND MEXICO...THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO SURVIVE THE RUGGED TERRAIN
OF THE SIERRA MADRES IN MEXICO SO NO FORECAST POINTS ARE GIVEN
BEYOND 72 HOURS. STILL...THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS AND ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND AFFECT
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES THROUGH DAY 4 AND 5.

NORBERT CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AND HAS SLOWED DOWN TO A MOTION OF
320/4. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY SINCE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO SHOW NORBERT MOVING NORTH THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS
REMAINS THE ONLY MODEL TO SHEAR THE SYSTEM SO MUCH THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LEFT TO MEANDER OFFSHORE AND NOT MOVE INTO
MEXICO.

WATCHES ARE NOT YET NEEDED FOR THE BAJA COAST SINCE NORBERT HAS
SLOWED DOWN...BUT THEY MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 18.3N 112.9W 80 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 18.9N 113.5W 80 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 20.5N 113.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 22.1N 113.3W 70 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 24.1N 111.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 27.5N 109.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[CrazyC83]

Seems to make sense in this case. I expect it to be dropped to about 100-105 kt at its peak in the best track now. I do agree it has weakened, but not as much as advisories suggest.

[Cyclenall]

Seems to make sense in this case. I expect it to be dropped to about 100-105 kt at its peak in the best track now. I do agree it has weakened, but not as much as advisories suggest.

Not 105 knots at peak, more like 120 knots. It just went through a rapid weakening phase during it's current ERC and other temporary factors. The deep convection is starting to wrap around the hurricane again within the last few hours.

After looking terrible early this afternoon, it could briefly go back up to CAT2 strength and then weaken faster then the NHC is predicting thereafter.

[CrazyC83]

Seems to make sense in this case. I expect it to be dropped to about 100-105 kt at its peak in the best track now. I do agree it has weakened, but not as much as advisories suggest.

Not 105 knots at peak, more like 120 knots. It just went through a rapid weakening phase during it's current ERC and other temporary factors. The deep convection is starting to wrap around the hurricane again within the last few hours.

After looking terrible early this afternoon, it could briefly go back up to CAT2 strength and then weaken faster then the NHC is predicting thereafter.

There was no Recon data then and if there was no flight today, the intensity would be around 90-95 kt right now as Dvorak supports, not 75 kt that Recon supported (80 kt was generous). Based on a 15 kt decrease from the operational track, that would have meant a 105 kt intensity at its peak.

[Just Joshing You]

Just because it was weaker when recon went into it, doesn't mean it was weaker yesterday or the day prior. They'll keep it at that intensity as there's no reason not to.

[Cyclenall]

There was no Recon data then and if there was no flight today, the intensity would be around 90-95 kt right now as Dvorak supports, not 75 kt that Recon supported (80 kt was generous). Based on a 15 kt decrease from the operational track, that would have meant a 105 kt intensity at its peak.

That's assuming though. I think it really was 120 knots when it had that clear eye with deep convection surrounding it.

[SaoFeng]

geez... Norbert really looks like a Cat 3 or more.... i wonder why the winds are so low with such a great structure?

[Derek Ortt]

Seems to make sense in this case. I expect it to be dropped to about 100-105 kt at its peak in the best track now. I do agree it has weakened, but not as much as advisories suggest.

Not 105 knots at peak, more like 120 knots. It just went through a rapid weakening phase during it's current ERC and other temporary factors. The deep convection is starting to wrap around the hurricane again within the last few hours.

After looking terrible early this afternoon, it could briefly go back up to CAT2 strength and then weaken faster then the NHC is predicting thereafter.

no, it didn't weaken rapidly

you need to go back through some advisory archives, as this is VERY COMMON in the EPAC. the Dvorak technique is not that good in this part of the world. It has a high bias

[Derek Ortt]

recon did not come close to justifying 75KT

The SFMR winds were barely at 65KT

[Just Joshing You]

But if GFDL initialized it at 120 KT, you'd believe it, Derek.

[pojo]

I don't know how much time in Norbert a plane from Keesler would have...

one alpha pattern.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ35 KNHC 100232
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 PM PDT THU OCT 09 2008

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO
SAN ANDRESITO SOUTHWARD AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM LARETO SOUTHWARD INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN MAINLAND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORBERT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES
...560 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A FASTER MOTION TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
NORBERT WILL BE NEARING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS BUT NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...18.9 N...113.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 100239
TCDEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 PM PDT THU OCT 09 2008

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE OF NORBERT HAS BECOME BETTER-
DEFINED AND A LITTLE SMALLER. IN ADDITION THE HURRICANE HAS
MAINTAINED A RATHER SYMMETRIC AND WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 80 KT...THOUGH THE ESTIMATE COULD BE
A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE AS NORBERT IS CLEARLY STILL GOING THROUGH
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DIFFICULT BECAUSE
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL IF AND WHEN NORBERT WILL COMPLETE ITS
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. IF IT DOES FINISH THE CYCLE...THE SHEAR AND
WATER CONDITIONS MIGHT BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM
TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE...LIKE THE GFDL/HWRF SHOW. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE STATISTICAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
AND WERE CERTAINLY MORE ACCURATE THAN THE GFDL/HWRF YESTERDAY. THIS
WEAKENING COULD BE OVERDONE SINCE THE GFS VORTEX TENDENCY TERM IS
CONTRIBUTING STRONGLY TO THE DECREASING FORECAST IN SHIPS...AND THE
GFS MODEL IS WEAKENING THE HURRICANE FASTER THAN ANY OTHER
GUIDANCE. FOR NOW...A SLOW WEAKENING OF NORBERT IS FORECAST...AND
THE NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS...SHOWING THE SYSTEM NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS
IT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA. THERE LIKELY WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE A CONCERN OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
DUE TO MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM.

AFTER A BRIEF SLOWDOWN THIS AFTERNOON...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
MADE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND APPEARS TO BE MOVING AT
ABOUT 6 KT. COMPUTER GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...SAVE
THE PESKY GFS MODEL...ON A TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY
THE WEEKEND TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA DUE TO AN APPROACHING DEEP-
LAYERED TROUGH. THE SPEED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE NOW
LESS NOTICEABLE AND GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BECOME MORE CLUSTERED
SINCE YESTERDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 18.9N 113.2W 80 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 19.9N 113.6W 75 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 21.6N 113.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 23.4N 112.6W 65 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 25.4N 110.9W 50 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 30.0N 107.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 101153
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
500 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LORETO.

INTERESTS IN MAINLAND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORBERT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES
...470 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A FASTER MOTION TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
NORBERT WILL BE NEARING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE NORBERT LATE THIS MORNING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...20.1 N...113.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG