EPAC MARIE: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Ad Novoxium]

This name list hasn't gotten very far, then. Looks like this year is the same story.

Actually, this names list is so-so. 84 ended at Simon and 90, one of the most active seasons in the EPac, reached Vance. However, in 96, the list ended at Hernan (although due to an unnamed storm being first, it should have ended at Iselle) and in 02, it ended at Lowell. This year seems to be cracking even between the 84-90 and 96-02 years.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 020247
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
800 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2008

RECENT MICROWAVE AND ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF MARIE IS
LOCATED FURTHER INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THE CONVECTION HAS
DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE. THE ASCAT PASS SHOWED SOME BELIEVABLE
40-45 WINDS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN T3.0...THEREFORE
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT.

SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER MARIE HAS ACCELERATED
DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS OR IF THE CENTER HAS REFORMED CLOSER THE
CONVECTION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/14 KT.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AS
A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF MARIE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE REMAINS...HOWEVER...A GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE
AS TO THE PREDICTED FORWARD SPEED OF MARIE. THE ECMWF...AND NOGAPS
SHOW A MUCH SLOWER FORWARD MOTION THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE RECENT FASTER TREND...THE NEW FORECAST IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
FIRST DAY OR SO. THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS...HWRF...GFDL...AND 12Z UKMET.

IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR HAS RELAXED AND MARIE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS FOR ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS.
THEREFORE...MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME. THEREAFTER...MARIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY
COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 18.0N 119.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 18.4N 120.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 18.6N 121.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 18.7N 123.1W 50 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 18.6N 124.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 18.5N 125.3W 45 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 18.3N 127.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 07/0000Z 18.3N 129.0W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HurricaneBill]

Actually, this names list is so-so. 84 ended at Simon and 90, one of the most active seasons in the EPac, reached Vance. However, in 96, the list ended at Hernan (although due to an unnamed storm being first, it should have ended at Iselle) and in 02, it ended at Lowell. This year seems to be cracking even between the 84-90 and 96-02 years.

1996 was a weird year. Only 8 named storms, but 4 of them struck Mexico as hurricanes. (Alma, Boris, Fausto, and Hernan)

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Best Track 12z:

EP, 14, 2008100212, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1200W, 40, 1001, TS

40 knots

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
800 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2008

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.3 WEST OR ABOUT 755
MILES...1210 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

MARIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A
REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...18.0 N...120.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
800 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2008

A TRMM PASS AT 10Z HELPED FIX THE CENTER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS COOLED AND EXPANDED SOMEWHAT OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE STILL 45
KT...BUT A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AROUND 05Z DIDN'T SHOW ANY WINDS
ABOVE 30 KT. EVEN ALLOWING FOR THIS INSTRUMENT'S LOW BIAS REQUIRES
A SLIGHT REDUCTION OF THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE SHEAR IS NOT
STRONG...BUT MARIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATERS OF AROUND 26C
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH ARE LIKELY TOO COOL TO ALLOW MUCH
STRENGTHENING BUT TOO WARM TO KILL IT OFF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/8. ONLY A WEAK RIDGE SEPARATES MARIE FROM
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA...AND A
SECOND TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT SPEED DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
GUIDANCE MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF ESSENTIALLY STALLING THE CYCLONE
AND THE UKMET SHOWING THE FASTEST MOTION TO THE WEST. THE
NOGAPS...WHICH YESTERDAY AGREED WITH THE ECMWF...NOW IS CLOSE TO
THE UKMET...LEAVING THE ECMWF AS AN OUTLIER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
INDICATES A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IN 36-48 HOURS WHEN THE
SECOND TROUGH PASSES BY...WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER WESTWARD MOTION
THEREAFTER...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE
GFDL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 18.0N 120.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 18.1N 121.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 18.0N 122.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 18.0N 123.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 18.0N 124.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 18.0N 126.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 18.0N 128.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 18.0N 130.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 022034
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
200 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2008

ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DURING THE
DAY...BANDING FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED ABOUT A MID-LEVEL CENTER.
MICROWAVE PASSES FROM A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED THAT THE SURFACE
CENTER WAS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT THIS DISPLACEMENT MAY
BE DECREASING. A 1400 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE ABOUT 45 KT. WIND SHEAR IS MODEST...AND THE IMPROVED
BANDING SUGGESTS THAT SOME STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR TONIGHT WHEN THE
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE STRONGER...ALTHOUGH THE STABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION SHOULD LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. OVER TIME...THE MARGINAL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A SLOW WEAKENING
TREND.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/6. A WEAK RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO CALIFORNIA...SO SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS POSSIBLE.
IN 36-48 HOURS...ANOTHER UPPER-TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE
RIDGE AND SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWING WITH
PERHAPS A BEND TO THE RIGHT. AS BEFORE...THE ECMWF IS RELATIVELY
SLOW WHILE THE UKMET IS FASTER AND TO THE SOUTH. AND AS
BEFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 17.6N 120.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 17.6N 121.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 17.6N 122.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 17.7N 123.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 17.9N 124.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 18.0N 126.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 18.0N 128.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 18.0N 130.0W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

Stronger than 45 knots?

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

WTPZ44 KNHC 030236
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
800 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2008

THE MOTION OF LOW CLOUD LINES IN THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOWED HINTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF MARIE MAY STILL BE
OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
WITHOUT ANY RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES...HOWEVER...IT IS DIFFICULT TO
BE CERTAIN OF THIS...AND THE SYNOPTIC POSITION IS PLACED JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE PRONOUNCED TURNING BASED ON CONTINUITY.
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 3.0.
THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. IF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS INDEED NOW COLLOCATED WITH THE STRONG MID-LEVEL
TURNING...MARIE COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THAT.

MARIE HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 260/6. A
MID-LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILL ESSENTIALLY BLOCK THE
WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND CAUSE A
SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. BY DAY 3...THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY
MIGRATE NORTH AND EAST OF MARIE...SPURRING A SLIGHT WESTWARD
ACCELERATION OF THE STORM THROUGH DAY 5. ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WITH THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND MARIE...THE CYCLONE MAY
BE GAINING A LITTLE STRENGTH. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL...DO NOT INTENSIFY
MARIE ANY HIGHER THAN 50 KT. MARIE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE WARM
SOUTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND
COULD POTENTIALLY CROSS OVER SEVERAL ALTERNATING WARM AND COLD
TONGUES ALONG THAT GRADIENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN
ADDITION...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING FURTHER INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT LOCATED WEST OF 120W. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF AT 50 KT WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING OCCURRING
AFTER 48 HOURS...IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 17.6N 121.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 17.5N 122.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 17.6N 122.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 17.7N 123.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 17.9N 124.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 18.1N 126.2W 45 KT
96HR VT 07/0000Z 18.1N 128.4W 40 KT
120HR VT 08/0000Z 18.1N 131.0W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART

[HURAKAN]

Pulsing back to life.

[Chacor]

WTPZ44 KNHC 030832
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2008

MARIE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. AN SSM/IS OVERPASS
AT 0329Z SHOWED CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A MID-LEVEL EYE...WITH
EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL
CENTERS WERE GETTING CLOSER TOGETHER. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
55 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. THE MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PREVIOUSLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME LIGHT
NORTHERLY SHEAR...AND MARIE CURRENTLY HAS FAIR TO GOOD CIRRUS
OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/5. MARIE IS SOUTH OF A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC NORTH OF
THE BREAK. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT THESE TROUGHS WILL
NOT DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT MARIE...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUPPORTS THIS BY SHOWING MID/UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE
NORTH OF THE STORM. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO
BUILD NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF MARIE AFTER 36-48 HR. BASED ON THE
PATTERN AND TRENDS...MARIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HR...WITH THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ERRATIC MOTION. AFTER THAT...THE BUILDING RIDGE
SHOULD STEER MARIE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER FORWARD SPEED. SOME SPREAD IS PRESENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE GFS...HWRF... BAMD...AND BAMM
MODELS CALLING FOR A FASTER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAN THE
OTHER GUIDANCE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK STAYS WITH THE SLOWER
GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR. THE
NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA AND TVCN CONSENSUS MODELS.

MARIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THUS...THE INTENSITY WILL LARGELY BE
CONTROLLED BY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MARIE IS CURRENTLY NEAR
THE 26C ISOTHERM...WHICH IS LIKELY TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE SLOW MOTION AND A FORECAST TRACK
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE ISOTHERMS SUGGEST THAT THE SSTS WILL BE
SLOW TO COOL UNDER THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOR 12-24 HR...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING
BEGINNING IN 36-48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KT IN 12 HR AND A GRADUAL
DECAY AFTER 36 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 17.8N 121.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 17.7N 122.5W 55 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 17.8N 123.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 18.0N 123.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 18.2N 124.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 18.5N 126.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 07/0600Z 19.0N 129.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 08/0600Z 19.0N 131.5W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Best Track 12z:

EP, 14, 2008100312, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1220W, 60, 990, TS

60 knots.

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 031434
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2008

MARIE IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. BOTH MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND IN FACT...AN EYE FEATURE IS TRYING TO FORM. BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 60
KNOTS. THE SHEAR HAS DECREASED MAKING THE ATMOSPHERE FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING BUT THE OCEAN REMAINS MARGINAL. MARIE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE ANY TIME TODAY AND ONLY A SLIGHT ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THEREAFTER. IN A DAY OR SO...THE OCEAN
ALONG MARIE'S PATH WILL BE COOLER AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
THEN BEGIN.

MARIE IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING WESTWARD WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT
STEERING CURRENTS. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF MARIE IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. MARIE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST
FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND AS THE RIDGE DEVELOPS...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THIS IS THE GENERAL SCENARIO INDICATED BY TRACK GUIDANCE BUT
MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 2 OR 3
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 17.7N 122.2W 60 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 17.8N 122.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 17.9N 123.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 18.3N 123.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 18.5N 124.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 19.0N 127.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 07/1200Z 19.0N 130.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 08/1200Z 19.0N 132.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

Marie may be trying to develop an eye or eye-feature.

[HURAKAN]

03/1200 UTC 17.7N 121.9W T4.0/4.0 MARIE -- East Pacific Ocean

[captain east]

That's a good looking TS, it could become or be a hurricane...

[HURAKAN]

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks like a Minimal Cane as we speak...