EPAC MARIE: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

NRL: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO HAVE AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH DISORGANIZED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

[HURAKAN]

30/1800 UTC 15.2N 113.4W T1.0/1.0 92E -- East Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

The EPAC is waking up for possibly one of the last battles of the season.

[HURAKAN]

637
ABPZ20 KNHC 302345
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER
WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[RattleMan]

BEGIN
NHC
invest_RENUMBER_ep922008_ep142008.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200810010659
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[Chacor]

WTPZ44 KNHC 010854
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
200 AM PDT WED OCT 01 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DEVELOPED A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE QUIKSCAT
DATA SHOWED RELIABLE-LOOKING WINDS OF 25-30 KT SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...WITH RAIN-CONTAMINATED WINDS OF UP TO 45 KT SOUTHWEST OF
THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND
30 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ABOUT
20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND AS A RESULT THE CENTER
IS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/8. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WHICH
SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
48 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A LARGE
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A
BREAK DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE. WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE
PATTERN...THEY DIVERGE ON THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL KEEP ENOUGH RIDGE BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND THE
TROUGH FOR THE CYCLONE TO MOVE WESTWARD. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
LBAR...NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF CREATE A BIG ENOUGH BREAK TO TURN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME
WHICH OF THESE TWO OPTIONS IS MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN. THUS...THE
FORECAST TRACK AFTER 48 HR CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENT SHEAR TO DIMINISH DURING
THE NEXT 48 HR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...REACHING THE
26C ISOTHERM BY DAY 5. NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS
STRENGTHENING BEYOND ABOUT 50 KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE PUZZLING SINCE
THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DECREASE WHILE THE CYCLONE IS STILL OVER
WARM WATER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
MODEL THROUGH 48 HR...THEN CALLS FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN SHIPS DUE
TO THE COOLING SSTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 16.3N 115.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 17.0N 116.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 17.7N 118.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 18.1N 119.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 18.1N 121.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 18.0N 123.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 18.0N 124.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z 18.0N 126.5W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Chacor]

Don't forget the TD14E challenge: viewtopic.php?f=25&t=103445

[HURAKAN]

Looks great.



Next Name: Marie

[Chacor]

Looks great.



Next Name: Marie

Best-track shows a jump from 30 to 45 kts:
EP, 14, 2008100112, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1160W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 40, 50, 0, 1012, 180, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,

[HURAKAN]

01/1130 UTC 16.9N 116.5W T3.0/3.0 14E -- East Pacific Ocean

Dvorak agrees on 50 mph.

[Chacor]

WTPZ24 KNHC 011436
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
1500 UTC WED OCT 01 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.3W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.3W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 116.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.8N 117.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 20NE 50SE 50SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.2N 118.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.4N 120.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.5N 121.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.5N 123.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 18.5N 125.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 18.5N 126.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 116.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

646
WTPZ34 KNHC 011442
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
800 AM PDT WED OCT 01 2008

...THIRTEENTH TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST OR ABOUT 575
MILES...930 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

MARIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...17.1 N...116.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

[Chacor]

WTPZ44 KNHC 011450
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
800 AM PDT WED OCT 01 2008

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS
DEPICT AN INCREASE IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S ORGANIZATION...WITH A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER JUST BENEATH THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A 0524Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED AT LEAST 35 KT
WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
RESIDES. DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T3.0 FROM BOTH
AGENCIES WHICH SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45
KT. EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 KT SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND REFLECTED IN THE SHIPS ANALYSIS. CONSEQUENTLY...MARIE
SHOULD CONTINUE STRENGTHENING BEFORE ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS IN
AROUND 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND
THE LGEM MODELS.

MARIE IS MOVING AT 310/8 AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF
MARIE WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY REDUCE THE FORWARD SPEED...AND WILL NOT
INDUCE A NORTHWARD TURN AS INDICATED BY THE NOGAPS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FAVORS THE FORMER SCENARIO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 17.1N 116.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 17.8N 117.4W 50 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 18.2N 118.8W 55 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 18.4N 120.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 18.5N 121.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 18.5N 123.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 18.5N 125.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 18.5N 126.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Not looking as organized as before. Shear is still an inhibitor.

[Chacor]

WTPZ44 KNHC 012035
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
200 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2008

A MICROWAVE PASS AROUND 1430Z INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF MARIE
REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS WERE UNCHANGED AT 18Z AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 45 KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EASTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD
ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE MARIE REACHES SUB-26C WATERS.
SINCE THE WATERS ARE ALREADY FAIRLY COOL...ONLY MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND
LGEM GUIDANCE. THE HWRF AND GFDL ARE A LITTLE LOWER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9...ALTHOUGH THIS ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN
SINCE THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOT APPARENT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
HIGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE CURRENT STEERING
FLOW. AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST
LIFTS OUT...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND
TURN IT WESTWARD. THE ARE SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE...AND THE SLOWER MODELS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND
NOGAPS...KEEP MARIE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BASICALLY STALL WHEN A
SECOND TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IN ABOUT 5
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...UKMET...GFDL AND
HWRF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 17.8N 117.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.3N 118.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 18.7N 119.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 18.9N 120.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 18.9N 121.9W 55 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 18.7N 123.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 18.5N 125.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 18.5N 126.5W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Ad Novoxium]

Believe it or not, this is the first time Marie was used in the EPac in 18 years.

[Chacor]

This name list hasn't gotten very far, then. Looks like this year is the same story.