Best Track at 12:00 UTC:
EP, 16, 2008100912, , BEST, 0, 126N, 940W, 45, 1000, TS,
EPAC : Odile - Tropical Depression - Discussion
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : Odile - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Forecast to become a hurricane.
WTPZ41 KNHC 091432
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
800 AM PDT THU OCT 09 2008
ODILE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THERE IS A SMALL CDO ALONG WITH A PRIMARY BAND OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
GIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF AT LEAST 45 KT...AND THIS IS
CONSERVATIVELY USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS
RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE SHIPS
OUTPUT INDICATES THAT EASTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER ODILE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOREOVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL SOON
BE PASSING OVER THE WAKE OF NORBERT...WHICH CONTAINS COOLER WATER
CAUSED BY UPWELLING AND MIXING. THEREFORE...NOTWITHSTANDING THE
CURRENT TREND OF INTENSIFICATION...ODILE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN MUCH BEYOND THE MINIMAL HURRICANE STAGE. WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS EASTERLY SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BECOME EVEN STRONGER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
LATEST FIXES LEAD TO A MORE WESTWARD MOTION OF 280/11. MOST OF THE
TRACK MODELS SHOW A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA THAT IS
PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FOR
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. THIS KEEPS THE CENTER FAIRLY WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS THE STORM BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED AND REMAINS OFFSHORE...THE
RAINFALL THREAT FOR MEXICO IS DIMINISHING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/1500Z 12.7N 94.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 13.0N 95.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 13.8N 97.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 14.7N 99.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 15.6N 101.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 17.0N 104.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 18.0N 106.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 19.0N 108.0W 55 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTPZ41 KNHC 091432
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
800 AM PDT THU OCT 09 2008
ODILE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THERE IS A SMALL CDO ALONG WITH A PRIMARY BAND OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
GIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF AT LEAST 45 KT...AND THIS IS
CONSERVATIVELY USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS
RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE SHIPS
OUTPUT INDICATES THAT EASTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER ODILE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOREOVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL SOON
BE PASSING OVER THE WAKE OF NORBERT...WHICH CONTAINS COOLER WATER
CAUSED BY UPWELLING AND MIXING. THEREFORE...NOTWITHSTANDING THE
CURRENT TREND OF INTENSIFICATION...ODILE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN MUCH BEYOND THE MINIMAL HURRICANE STAGE. WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS EASTERLY SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BECOME EVEN STRONGER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
LATEST FIXES LEAD TO A MORE WESTWARD MOTION OF 280/11. MOST OF THE
TRACK MODELS SHOW A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA THAT IS
PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FOR
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. THIS KEEPS THE CENTER FAIRLY WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS THE STORM BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED AND REMAINS OFFSHORE...THE
RAINFALL THREAT FOR MEXICO IS DIMINISHING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/1500Z 12.7N 94.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 13.0N 95.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 13.8N 97.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 14.7N 99.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 15.6N 101.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 17.0N 104.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 18.0N 106.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 19.0N 108.0W 55 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : Odile - Tropical Storm - Discussion
WTPZ41 KNHC 092032
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
200 PM PDT THU OCT 09 2008
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE-OBSERVED CLOUD
PATTERN SINCE THIS MORNING...ALBEIT THE BANDING FEATURES ARE
PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS PROMINENT AT THIS TIME. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE ALSO UNCHANGED. THEREFORE THE WIND SPEED IS HELD AT
45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO
BE WELL-DEFINED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BUT
RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST. EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE AFFECTING ODILE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THAT SHEAR IS
PREDICTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER THE
LATEST SHIPS RUN...USING THE GFS OUTPUT...DOES NOT PREDICT THE
SHEAR TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS IN THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS.
SO...THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE LESS WEAKENING LATE IN
THE PERIOD. OF COURSE...IF ODILE WERE TO INTERACT WITH LAND THE
INTENSITY EVOLUTION WOULD BE SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT THAN INDICATED
HERE.
AFTER THE MORE WESTWARD MOTION NOTED THIS MORNING...THE TRACK HAS
TURNED BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 290/10. NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT
IS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD PROVIDE A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
STEERING CURRENT FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A SELECTIVE CONSENSUS OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT EXCLUDES THE LATEST U.K. MET. OFFICE RUN.
IN THE LATTER MODEL'S FORECAST...THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CENTER OF
ODILE IS COMPLETELY SHEARED OFF AND PROCEEDS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR THE COAST WHEREAS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LEFT BEHIND TO
MEANDER AND WEAKEN NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS SCENARIO DOES
NOT SEEM REALISTIC AT THIS TIME.
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST...LIKE THE EARLIER ONES...KEEPS THE CENTER
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST THROUGH 5 DAYS. HOWEVER SOME OF THE TRACK
MODELS...NOTABLY THE HWRF AND GFDL...BRING ODILE CLOSE TO THE COAST
OR ONSHORE IN 3-5 DAYS. IN THE SHORTER TIME FRAME...A SIGNIFICANT
NORTHWARD DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE WOULD PROBABLY
REQUIRE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/2100Z 13.3N 95.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 13.9N 96.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 14.5N 98.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 15.4N 100.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 16.3N 102.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 18.0N 105.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 19.5N 106.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 14/1800Z 21.0N 108.0W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
200 PM PDT THU OCT 09 2008
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE-OBSERVED CLOUD
PATTERN SINCE THIS MORNING...ALBEIT THE BANDING FEATURES ARE
PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS PROMINENT AT THIS TIME. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE ALSO UNCHANGED. THEREFORE THE WIND SPEED IS HELD AT
45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO
BE WELL-DEFINED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BUT
RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST. EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE AFFECTING ODILE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THAT SHEAR IS
PREDICTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER THE
LATEST SHIPS RUN...USING THE GFS OUTPUT...DOES NOT PREDICT THE
SHEAR TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS IN THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS.
SO...THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE LESS WEAKENING LATE IN
THE PERIOD. OF COURSE...IF ODILE WERE TO INTERACT WITH LAND THE
INTENSITY EVOLUTION WOULD BE SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT THAN INDICATED
HERE.
AFTER THE MORE WESTWARD MOTION NOTED THIS MORNING...THE TRACK HAS
TURNED BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 290/10. NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT
IS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD PROVIDE A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
STEERING CURRENT FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A SELECTIVE CONSENSUS OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT EXCLUDES THE LATEST U.K. MET. OFFICE RUN.
IN THE LATTER MODEL'S FORECAST...THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CENTER OF
ODILE IS COMPLETELY SHEARED OFF AND PROCEEDS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR THE COAST WHEREAS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LEFT BEHIND TO
MEANDER AND WEAKEN NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS SCENARIO DOES
NOT SEEM REALISTIC AT THIS TIME.
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST...LIKE THE EARLIER ONES...KEEPS THE CENTER
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST THROUGH 5 DAYS. HOWEVER SOME OF THE TRACK
MODELS...NOTABLY THE HWRF AND GFDL...BRING ODILE CLOSE TO THE COAST
OR ONSHORE IN 3-5 DAYS. IN THE SHORTER TIME FRAME...A SIGNIFICANT
NORTHWARD DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE WOULD PROBABLY
REQUIRE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/2100Z 13.3N 95.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 13.9N 96.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 14.5N 98.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 15.4N 100.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 16.3N 102.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 18.0N 105.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 19.5N 106.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 14/1800Z 21.0N 108.0W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : Odile - Tropical Storm - Discussion
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 100232
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
800 PM PDT THU OCT 09 2008
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA
MALDONADO TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...215 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO AND ABOUT
330 MILES...535 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...AND NOT FAR
OFFSHORE OF...THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO...OAXACA...AND CHIAPAS...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...13.8 N...96.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTPZ31 KNHC 100232
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
800 PM PDT THU OCT 09 2008
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA
MALDONADO TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...215 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO AND ABOUT
330 MILES...535 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...AND NOT FAR
OFFSHORE OF...THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE
SOUTHERN MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO...OAXACA...AND CHIAPAS...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...13.8 N...96.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: EPAC : Odile - Tropical Storm - Discussion
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 101159
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
500 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.9 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES...410 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...AND NOT FAR
OFFSHORE OF...THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES OF GUERRERO...OAXACA...AND CHIAPAS...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...14.3 N...96.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER
WTPZ31 KNHC 101159
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
500 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.9 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES...410 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...AND NOT FAR
OFFSHORE OF...THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES OF GUERRERO...OAXACA...AND CHIAPAS...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...14.3 N...96.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER
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WTPZ41 KNHC 101501
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008
TWO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES PLACE THE CENTER OF ODILE JUST INSIDE
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE CYCLONE IS
SHOWING GOOD BANDING STRUCTURE. DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED
FROM 6 HOURS AGO. A QUIKSCAT PASS JUST IN SHOWS CORRECT AMBIGUITIES
OF 40-45 KT...WITH PERHAPS ONE VALID VECTOR OF 45-50 KT. BASED ON
THESE DATA...THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION...ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO...AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO. EXCEPT FOR THE
UKMET...WHICH LOSES THE VORTEX ALMOST IMMEDIATELY...MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO FOR THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOWING INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT WEAKENS THE
SYSTEM...WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY A TURN OF THE SHALLOWER VORTEX TO THE
WEST. THE GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A WESTWARD EXTENTION OF THE RIDGE
AFTER HURRICANE NORBERT CROSSES BAJA CALIFORNIA THAT WOULD FAVOR A
TURN TO THE WEST AFTER 2-3 DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE BAM
MODELS DO NOT SHOW THIS WESTWARD TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL NEAR THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...SO SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AN INCREASE IN THE
SHEAR IS EXPECT TO INDUCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.
ONLY A VERY SMALL DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT WOULD BRING
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONSHORE...AND THUS A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/1500Z 14.4N 97.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 15.0N 98.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 15.9N 100.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 16.6N 101.9W 60 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 17.1N 103.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 18.0N 105.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 14/1200Z 18.5N 107.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 15/1200Z 19.0N 109.5W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008
TWO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES PLACE THE CENTER OF ODILE JUST INSIDE
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE CYCLONE IS
SHOWING GOOD BANDING STRUCTURE. DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED
FROM 6 HOURS AGO. A QUIKSCAT PASS JUST IN SHOWS CORRECT AMBIGUITIES
OF 40-45 KT...WITH PERHAPS ONE VALID VECTOR OF 45-50 KT. BASED ON
THESE DATA...THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION...ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO...AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO. EXCEPT FOR THE
UKMET...WHICH LOSES THE VORTEX ALMOST IMMEDIATELY...MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO FOR THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOWING INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT WEAKENS THE
SYSTEM...WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY A TURN OF THE SHALLOWER VORTEX TO THE
WEST. THE GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A WESTWARD EXTENTION OF THE RIDGE
AFTER HURRICANE NORBERT CROSSES BAJA CALIFORNIA THAT WOULD FAVOR A
TURN TO THE WEST AFTER 2-3 DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE BAM
MODELS DO NOT SHOW THIS WESTWARD TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL NEAR THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...SO SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AN INCREASE IN THE
SHEAR IS EXPECT TO INDUCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.
ONLY A VERY SMALL DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT WOULD BRING
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONSHORE...AND THUS A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/1500Z 14.4N 97.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 15.0N 98.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 15.9N 100.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 16.6N 101.9W 60 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 17.1N 103.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 18.0N 105.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 14/1200Z 18.5N 107.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 15/1200Z 19.0N 109.5W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : Odile - Tropical Storm - Discussion
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 102033
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE DIMINISHED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT RECENTLY HAS INCREASED AGAIN. THE BANDING LOOKS A
LITTLE LESS IMPRESSIVE NOW THAN IT DID EARLIER IN THE DAY.
OVERALL...THERE DOESN'T SEEM TO BE ANY REASON TO ALTER THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED
TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...SO ODILE STILL HAS AN
OPPORTUNITY TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IF IT REMAINS OFFSHORE.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. BY
THAT TIME...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
AND MOST SHOW A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE LATEST GFDL AND HWRF RUNS SHOW EVEN MORE RAPID
WEAKENING...WHILE THE STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP ODILE A HURRICANE
THROUGH 5 DAYS. SHOULD ODILE SURVIVE THE INCREASE IN SHEAR...
WATERS UNDER THE CYCLONE WILL BE VERY WARM...AND SO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLOW DECAY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10...A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS MOTION. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF ODILE
COULD WEAKEN JUST A BIT AS NORBERT BEGINS ITS RECURVATURE OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...ALLOWING ODILE TO GET VERY CLOSE TO THE
COASTLINE...BUT AFTER NORBERT CLEARS OUT A BUILDING RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BLOCK ODILE'S PATH AND TURN IT BACK TO THE WEST. EVEN
THOUGH I HAVE ADJUSTED THE TRACK TO THE SOUTH AFTER 48 HOURS...MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE EVEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND SLOWER THAN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/2100Z 15.3N 98.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 15.9N 99.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 16.6N 101.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 17.2N 102.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 17.4N 103.8W 60 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 17.5N 105.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 14/1800Z 17.5N 107.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 15/1800Z 17.5N 108.0W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTPZ41 KNHC 102033
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE DIMINISHED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT RECENTLY HAS INCREASED AGAIN. THE BANDING LOOKS A
LITTLE LESS IMPRESSIVE NOW THAN IT DID EARLIER IN THE DAY.
OVERALL...THERE DOESN'T SEEM TO BE ANY REASON TO ALTER THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED
TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...SO ODILE STILL HAS AN
OPPORTUNITY TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IF IT REMAINS OFFSHORE.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. BY
THAT TIME...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
AND MOST SHOW A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE LATEST GFDL AND HWRF RUNS SHOW EVEN MORE RAPID
WEAKENING...WHILE THE STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP ODILE A HURRICANE
THROUGH 5 DAYS. SHOULD ODILE SURVIVE THE INCREASE IN SHEAR...
WATERS UNDER THE CYCLONE WILL BE VERY WARM...AND SO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLOW DECAY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10...A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS MOTION. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF ODILE
COULD WEAKEN JUST A BIT AS NORBERT BEGINS ITS RECURVATURE OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...ALLOWING ODILE TO GET VERY CLOSE TO THE
COASTLINE...BUT AFTER NORBERT CLEARS OUT A BUILDING RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BLOCK ODILE'S PATH AND TURN IT BACK TO THE WEST. EVEN
THOUGH I HAVE ADJUSTED THE TRACK TO THE SOUTH AFTER 48 HOURS...MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE EVEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND SLOWER THAN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/2100Z 15.3N 98.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 15.9N 99.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 16.6N 101.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 17.2N 102.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 17.4N 103.8W 60 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 17.5N 105.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 14/1800Z 17.5N 107.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 15/1800Z 17.5N 108.0W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : Odile - Tropical Storm - Discussion
ATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
500 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008
...ODILE EDGING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA
WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO TO
PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF ODILE A SHORT
DISTANCE OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED
MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER TO THE COASTLINE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ODILE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IF IT REMAINS
OFFSHORE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...15.7 N...98.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
500 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008
...ODILE EDGING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA
WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO TO
PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF ODILE A SHORT
DISTANCE OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED
MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER TO THE COASTLINE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ODILE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IF IT REMAINS
OFFSHORE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...15.7 N...98.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
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cycloneye
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- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: EPAC : Odile - Tropical Storm - Discussion
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 110233
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008
...CENTER OF ODILE APPROACHING THE ACAPULCO AREA...
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM
LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA
SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.4 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...125 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE SHOULD PASS
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND STAY JUST OFF
THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER
TO THE COASTLINE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND ODILE COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THIS TIME
IF IT REMAINS OFFSHORE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...15.9 N...99.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTPZ41 KNHC 110249
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008
ODILE HAS PRODUCED A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C
THIS EVENING...WITH A JUST-RECEIVED SSM/IS OVERPASS SHOWING THAT
THE CLUSTER IS SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS DECREASING...ALTHOUGH THIS HAS NOT
YET TRANSLATED INTO AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB. BASED
ON THIS AND THE LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/11...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE
A LITTLE FASTER. ODILE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF ODILE IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE NORBERT
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE ODILE TO
MAKE A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN...IF IT DOESN'T MAKE LANDFALL AND
DISSIPATE FIRST. THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND HWRF FAVOR THE LANDFALL
SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS...GFDL...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF KEEP ODILE
OFFSHORE AND TURN IT WESTWARD. INDEED...THE ECMWF SHOWS A
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE MODELS...SHOWING A MOTION VERY CLOSE
TO THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS...AND A SLOW
WESTWARD MOTION AWAY FROM THE COAST THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST
36-48 HR...AND IT IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA
STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
IF ODILE DOESN'T DISSIPATE OVER LAND...IT SHOULD REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
BETWEEN 24-72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING CYCLONIC
NEAR ODILE AFTER 72 HR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS. PROXIMITY
TO LAND COULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HR...AND
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THIS
TIME. AS ODILE MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST...THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS FORECAST IT TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HR...WHILE THE
GFDL DOES NOT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS COMPROMISES WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KT. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE INCREASING
SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
ODILE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE IS AS FAR SOUTH
AS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF AFTER 72 HR...IT MAY FIND A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 15.9N 99.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 16.6N 100.5W 55 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 17.3N 102.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 17.5N 103.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 17.5N 104.4W 60 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 17.5N 106.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 17.5N 107.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 16/0000Z 17.5N 108.5W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTPZ31 KNHC 110233
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008
...CENTER OF ODILE APPROACHING THE ACAPULCO AREA...
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM
LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA
SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.4 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...125 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE SHOULD PASS
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND STAY JUST OFF
THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER
TO THE COASTLINE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND ODILE COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THIS TIME
IF IT REMAINS OFFSHORE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...15.9 N...99.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTPZ41 KNHC 110249
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008
ODILE HAS PRODUCED A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C
THIS EVENING...WITH A JUST-RECEIVED SSM/IS OVERPASS SHOWING THAT
THE CLUSTER IS SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS DECREASING...ALTHOUGH THIS HAS NOT
YET TRANSLATED INTO AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB. BASED
ON THIS AND THE LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/11...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE
A LITTLE FASTER. ODILE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF ODILE IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE NORBERT
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE ODILE TO
MAKE A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN...IF IT DOESN'T MAKE LANDFALL AND
DISSIPATE FIRST. THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND HWRF FAVOR THE LANDFALL
SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS...GFDL...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF KEEP ODILE
OFFSHORE AND TURN IT WESTWARD. INDEED...THE ECMWF SHOWS A
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE MODELS...SHOWING A MOTION VERY CLOSE
TO THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS...AND A SLOW
WESTWARD MOTION AWAY FROM THE COAST THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST
36-48 HR...AND IT IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA
STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
IF ODILE DOESN'T DISSIPATE OVER LAND...IT SHOULD REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
BETWEEN 24-72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING CYCLONIC
NEAR ODILE AFTER 72 HR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS. PROXIMITY
TO LAND COULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HR...AND
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THIS
TIME. AS ODILE MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST...THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS FORECAST IT TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HR...WHILE THE
GFDL DOES NOT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS COMPROMISES WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KT. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE INCREASING
SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
ODILE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE IS AS FAR SOUTH
AS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF AFTER 72 HR...IT MAY FIND A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 15.9N 99.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 16.6N 100.5W 55 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 17.3N 102.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 17.5N 103.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 17.5N 104.4W 60 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 17.5N 106.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 17.5N 107.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 16/0000Z 17.5N 108.5W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : Odile - Tropical Storm - Discussion
WTPZ31 KNHC 111147
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
...ODILE HUGGING THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA
SAN TELMO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTA MALDONADO
WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAN
TELMO TO MANZANILLO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.1 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES... 145 KM...WEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES...140
KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.
ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE WEST AT A SLOWER SPEED
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF ODILE
VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO
THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ODILE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...16.8 N...101.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
...ODILE HUGGING THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA
SAN TELMO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTA MALDONADO
WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAN
TELMO TO MANZANILLO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.1 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES... 145 KM...WEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES...140
KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.
ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE WEST AT A SLOWER SPEED
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF ODILE
VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO
THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ODILE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...16.8 N...101.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : Odile - Tropical Storm - Discussion
WTPZ31 KNHC 111443
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
...ODILE CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE ON ROUTE...
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH TO MANZANILLO AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WATCH EAST OF ZIHUATANEJO. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM
ZIHUATANEJO TO MANZANILLO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO MANZANILLO AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM...SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AND ABOUT 210 MILES...
340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
A CONTINUED MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE WEST AT A SLOWER SPEED EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF ODILE VERY CLOSE TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF
THE EXPECTED TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST...
ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE WINDS COULD BRING ODILE TO HURRICANE
STATUS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...17.2 N...101.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTPZ41 KNHC 111443
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER OF ODILE WITHIN THIS LARGE
BUT SHAPELESS CLOUD PATTERN WHICH IS DISTORTED BY SHEAR AND BY THE
INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS AND THIS POSITION
MATCHES WITH EXTRAPOLATION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND
WITH NO OTHER DATA AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
55 KNOTS. ONCE AGAIN STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS ODILE TO
HURRICANE STATUS BUT GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE SOPHISTICATED
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. GIVEN THE CURRENT
ORGANIZATION AND INCREASING SHEAR...AND ASSUMING THAT THE CENTER
WILL CONTINUE OVER WATER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH LITTLE CHANGE
THEREAFTER. THIS FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS.
ODILE IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND AS THE RIDGE
EXPANDS WESTWARD...IT WILL PROBABLY FORCE ODILE ON A MORE WEST AND
EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. THIS IS THE SOLUTION INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH FOLLOWS MY PREDECESSOR. HOWEVER...THIS
FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY
DIFLUENT. HALF OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MOVE ODILE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING IT INLAND IN A DAY OR SO AND THE OTHER HALF
TURNED THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD. THEY ALL HAVE ONE THING IN
COMMON...THEY BASICALLY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE RATHER QUICKLY.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY HEADING TOWARD ODILE
SO WE WILL KNOW MORE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/1500Z 17.2N 101.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 17.8N 103.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 18.1N 104.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 18.3N 105.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 18.3N 106.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 18.0N 107.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 17.5N 108.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 109.0W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
...ODILE CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE ON ROUTE...
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH TO MANZANILLO AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WATCH EAST OF ZIHUATANEJO. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM
ZIHUATANEJO TO MANZANILLO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO MANZANILLO AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM...SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AND ABOUT 210 MILES...
340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
A CONTINUED MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE WEST AT A SLOWER SPEED EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF ODILE VERY CLOSE TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF
THE EXPECTED TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST...
ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE WINDS COULD BRING ODILE TO HURRICANE
STATUS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...17.2 N...101.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTPZ41 KNHC 111443
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER OF ODILE WITHIN THIS LARGE
BUT SHAPELESS CLOUD PATTERN WHICH IS DISTORTED BY SHEAR AND BY THE
INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS AND THIS POSITION
MATCHES WITH EXTRAPOLATION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND
WITH NO OTHER DATA AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
55 KNOTS. ONCE AGAIN STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS ODILE TO
HURRICANE STATUS BUT GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE SOPHISTICATED
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. GIVEN THE CURRENT
ORGANIZATION AND INCREASING SHEAR...AND ASSUMING THAT THE CENTER
WILL CONTINUE OVER WATER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH LITTLE CHANGE
THEREAFTER. THIS FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS.
ODILE IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND AS THE RIDGE
EXPANDS WESTWARD...IT WILL PROBABLY FORCE ODILE ON A MORE WEST AND
EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. THIS IS THE SOLUTION INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH FOLLOWS MY PREDECESSOR. HOWEVER...THIS
FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY
DIFLUENT. HALF OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MOVE ODILE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING IT INLAND IN A DAY OR SO AND THE OTHER HALF
TURNED THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD. THEY ALL HAVE ONE THING IN
COMMON...THEY BASICALLY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE RATHER QUICKLY.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY HEADING TOWARD ODILE
SO WE WILL KNOW MORE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/1500Z 17.2N 101.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 17.8N 103.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 18.1N 104.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 18.3N 105.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 18.3N 106.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 18.0N 107.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 17.5N 108.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 109.0W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : Odile - Tropical Storm - Discussion
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 112036
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
I WILL HAVE TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS IN THIS ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ON
ITS WAY TO NORBERT...WENT THROUGH ODILE AND FOUND A VERY
DISORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS
WERE QUITE WEAK AND THE SFMR MEASURED 40 TO 45 KNOTS IN SMALL AREA
NEAR THE CENTER AND I AM NOT SURE IF THESE SFMR WINDS ARE GOOD OR
NOT. MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED WAS 1009 MB BUT COULD BE LOWER
BECAUSE THE CYCLONE WAS VERY DISORGANIZED AND THE DROPSONDE DID NOT
HIT THE SURFACE CENTER. A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN SATELLITE
ESTIMATES...CONTINUITY AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS TO ADJUST THE
INITIAL INTENSITY DOWN TO 40 KNOTS BUT THIS IS VERY GENEROUS. I AM
NOT GOING TO WRITE AT THIS TIME THE REASON OF SUCH SUDDEN DEMISE OF
THE STORM BECAUSE I DO NOT HAVE THE ANSWER. HOWEVER...I WILL BE
GIVING CREDIT TO NUMERICAL MODELS WHICH HAS BEEN INSISTING ON
DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM QUICKLY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS
FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND THIS COULD HAPPEN QUICKER IF THE CENTER
MOVES INLAND OR THERE IS MORE INTERACTION WITH LAND. HOWEVER...IF
THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS REASONS FOR A
RAPID WEAKENING. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS TO BE REVERSED AGAIN.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305 DEGREES OR NORTHWEST
AT 10 KNOTS. THIS MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER HAS
BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SINCE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM THE MODEL TRACKERS ARE NOT AVAILABLE. HOWEVER
MOST OF THE MODELS DO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE OVER MEXICO
AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE A WESTWARD COMPONENT TO THE
CYCLONE. ODILLE SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND WEST SOON AS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
ODILE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...HAS REALLY FOOLED ME AS ODILE...THE
EVIL CHARACTER IN THE BALLET SWAN LAKE...FOOLED THE PRINCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/2100Z 17.9N 102.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 18.6N 104.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 19.3N 106.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 19.5N 107.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 19.5N 108.0W 25 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 19.5N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 16/1800Z 19.5N 110.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTPZ41 KNHC 112036
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
I WILL HAVE TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS IN THIS ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ON
ITS WAY TO NORBERT...WENT THROUGH ODILE AND FOUND A VERY
DISORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS
WERE QUITE WEAK AND THE SFMR MEASURED 40 TO 45 KNOTS IN SMALL AREA
NEAR THE CENTER AND I AM NOT SURE IF THESE SFMR WINDS ARE GOOD OR
NOT. MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED WAS 1009 MB BUT COULD BE LOWER
BECAUSE THE CYCLONE WAS VERY DISORGANIZED AND THE DROPSONDE DID NOT
HIT THE SURFACE CENTER. A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN SATELLITE
ESTIMATES...CONTINUITY AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS TO ADJUST THE
INITIAL INTENSITY DOWN TO 40 KNOTS BUT THIS IS VERY GENEROUS. I AM
NOT GOING TO WRITE AT THIS TIME THE REASON OF SUCH SUDDEN DEMISE OF
THE STORM BECAUSE I DO NOT HAVE THE ANSWER. HOWEVER...I WILL BE
GIVING CREDIT TO NUMERICAL MODELS WHICH HAS BEEN INSISTING ON
DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM QUICKLY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS
FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND THIS COULD HAPPEN QUICKER IF THE CENTER
MOVES INLAND OR THERE IS MORE INTERACTION WITH LAND. HOWEVER...IF
THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS REASONS FOR A
RAPID WEAKENING. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS TO BE REVERSED AGAIN.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305 DEGREES OR NORTHWEST
AT 10 KNOTS. THIS MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER HAS
BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SINCE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM THE MODEL TRACKERS ARE NOT AVAILABLE. HOWEVER
MOST OF THE MODELS DO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE OVER MEXICO
AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE A WESTWARD COMPONENT TO THE
CYCLONE. ODILLE SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND WEST SOON AS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
ODILE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...HAS REALLY FOOLED ME AS ODILE...THE
EVIL CHARACTER IN THE BALLET SWAN LAKE...FOOLED THE PRINCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/2100Z 17.9N 102.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 18.6N 104.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 19.3N 106.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 19.5N 107.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 19.5N 108.0W 25 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 19.5N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 16/1800Z 19.5N 110.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : Odile - Tropical Storm - Discussion
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 120248
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
THE LOCATION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF ODILE ARE HARD TO DETERMINE
THIS EVENING. WHAT LOW CLOUDS THAT CAN BE SEEN IN INFRARED IMAGERY
ALONG WITH AN AMSU OVERPASS NEAR 00Z SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS NOW
ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE STRONG...BUT DISORGANIZED...
CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PREVIOUS AFFECTING THE SYSTEM BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. WHILE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM
SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION
FROM EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA. THE WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN REVISED
BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...AND MAY NEED TO BE REVISED AGAIN IF A
GOOD SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS OCCURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 300/10. ODILE REMAINS ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO...WITH THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS STILL FORECASTING WEAK RIDGING TO DEVELOP NORTH
OF ODILE AS HURRICANE NORBERT DISSIPATES OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ONLY GLOBAL
MODEL THAT HANGS ON TO ODILE FOR 5 DAYS...THE ECMWF...CALLS FOR IT
TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE BAM MODELS FORECAST
A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE PACIFIC WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE FORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES AND CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION SIMILAR TO THAT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS FORECAST...
WHILE IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...DOES NOT LIE PARTICULARLY CLOSE TO
ANY GUIDANCE MODEL.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. FIRST...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD CAUSE ODILE TO
MAKE LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SECOND...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE EASTERLY SHEAR TO INCREASE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GFDL...HWRF...AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST ODILE TO DISSIPATE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR
AND LAND INTERACTION...AND THAT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.
HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH OF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THE NEXT 24-48 HR...IT
MAY FIND A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST TO
RE-INTENSIFY...AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. WITH THESE EXTREME
POSSIBILITIES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST COMPROMISES BY FOLLOWING THE
SCENARIO OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT ODILE WILL BE DISRUPTED
ENOUGH BY THE SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION THAT IT WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO RECOVER OVER OPEN WATER. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW
WEAKENING...WITH ODILE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0300Z 18.2N 103.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 18.9N 105.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 19.4N 106.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 19.5N 107.6W 30 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 19.5N 108.4W 25 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 19.5N 109.5W 25 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 19.5N 110.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 17/0000Z 19.5N 110.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTPZ41 KNHC 120248
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
THE LOCATION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF ODILE ARE HARD TO DETERMINE
THIS EVENING. WHAT LOW CLOUDS THAT CAN BE SEEN IN INFRARED IMAGERY
ALONG WITH AN AMSU OVERPASS NEAR 00Z SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS NOW
ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE STRONG...BUT DISORGANIZED...
CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PREVIOUS AFFECTING THE SYSTEM BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. WHILE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM
SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION
FROM EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA. THE WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN REVISED
BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...AND MAY NEED TO BE REVISED AGAIN IF A
GOOD SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS OCCURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 300/10. ODILE REMAINS ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO...WITH THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS STILL FORECASTING WEAK RIDGING TO DEVELOP NORTH
OF ODILE AS HURRICANE NORBERT DISSIPATES OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ONLY GLOBAL
MODEL THAT HANGS ON TO ODILE FOR 5 DAYS...THE ECMWF...CALLS FOR IT
TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE BAM MODELS FORECAST
A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE PACIFIC WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE FORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES AND CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION SIMILAR TO THAT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS FORECAST...
WHILE IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...DOES NOT LIE PARTICULARLY CLOSE TO
ANY GUIDANCE MODEL.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. FIRST...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD CAUSE ODILE TO
MAKE LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SECOND...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE EASTERLY SHEAR TO INCREASE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GFDL...HWRF...AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST ODILE TO DISSIPATE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR
AND LAND INTERACTION...AND THAT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.
HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH OF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THE NEXT 24-48 HR...IT
MAY FIND A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST TO
RE-INTENSIFY...AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. WITH THESE EXTREME
POSSIBILITIES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST COMPROMISES BY FOLLOWING THE
SCENARIO OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT ODILE WILL BE DISRUPTED
ENOUGH BY THE SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION THAT IT WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO RECOVER OVER OPEN WATER. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW
WEAKENING...WITH ODILE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0300Z 18.2N 103.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 18.9N 105.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 19.4N 106.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 19.5N 107.6W 30 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 19.5N 108.4W 25 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 19.5N 109.5W 25 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 19.5N 110.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 17/0000Z 19.5N 110.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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HenkL
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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 120854
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2008
BASED ON A SERIES OF SSMI AND AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGES BEFORE 06Z...THE
WEAK DISORGANIZED SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO HAVE DECOUPLED
SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER WHICH HAS MOVED CLOSE TO THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR MANZANILLO. CLOUD-DRIFT DERIVED MID TO UPPER
WINDS INDICATE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO
30 KT OVER THE CYCLONE...WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL
DEPICTION OF THE UPPER-WIND PATTERN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 35 KT SIMPLY BECAUSE THE CLOUD PATTERN...ALTHOUGH QUITE
RAGGED...HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL SUGGEST
THAT THE MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL TRANSITION INTO A
STRONGER EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND INDICATES WEAKENING TO
A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/6...A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED A
LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS SINCE IT APPEARS THAT THE EXPECTED
BUILDING OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEHIND NORBERT HAS ALREADY
COMMENCED. CONSEQUENTLY...A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WITH A GRADUAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TURN AS SUGGESTED BY THE UKMET AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS/NOGAPS/UKMET AND
ECMWF MODELS WHICH ALL DEPICT A SHEARED WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE
DRIFTING WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0900Z 18.2N 104.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 18.2N 105.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 18.1N 105.7W 30 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 18.0N 106.4W 25 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 17.8N 107.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
WTPZ41 KNHC 120854
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2008
BASED ON A SERIES OF SSMI AND AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGES BEFORE 06Z...THE
WEAK DISORGANIZED SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO HAVE DECOUPLED
SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER WHICH HAS MOVED CLOSE TO THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR MANZANILLO. CLOUD-DRIFT DERIVED MID TO UPPER
WINDS INDICATE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO
30 KT OVER THE CYCLONE...WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL
DEPICTION OF THE UPPER-WIND PATTERN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 35 KT SIMPLY BECAUSE THE CLOUD PATTERN...ALTHOUGH QUITE
RAGGED...HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL SUGGEST
THAT THE MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL TRANSITION INTO A
STRONGER EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND INDICATES WEAKENING TO
A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/6...A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED A
LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS SINCE IT APPEARS THAT THE EXPECTED
BUILDING OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEHIND NORBERT HAS ALREADY
COMMENCED. CONSEQUENTLY...A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WITH A GRADUAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TURN AS SUGGESTED BY THE UKMET AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS/NOGAPS/UKMET AND
ECMWF MODELS WHICH ALL DEPICT A SHEARED WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE
DRIFTING WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0900Z 18.2N 104.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 18.2N 105.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 18.1N 105.7W 30 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 18.0N 106.4W 25 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 17.8N 107.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : Odile - Tropical Storm - Discussion
WTPZ41 KNHC 121429
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2008
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA FROM MEXICO CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
ODILE IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS SHAPELESS AND DEEP
CONVECTION IS MINIMAL. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO ONLY REPORTED RAIN AND PRESSURES RISING WITH LIGHT WINDS.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KNOTS. SINCE WE DO NOT HAVE
ENOUGH VISIBLE IMAGES AT THIS TIME...WE ARE KEEPING ODILE AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THIS ADVISORY. THE DEPRESSION MOST LIKELY
WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.
BECAUSE IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER...THE ESTIMATES OF THE
INITIAL MOTION HAVE BEEN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. I HAVE USED CONTINUITY TO
LOCATE THE CENTER BUT I WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE
CENTER HAS MOVED INLAND AND IS DISSIPATING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST
UNTIL DISSIPATION LATER TODAY OR MONDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/1500Z 19.5N 105.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 19.8N 106.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 13/1200Z 20.0N 107.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2008
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA FROM MEXICO CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
ODILE IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS SHAPELESS AND DEEP
CONVECTION IS MINIMAL. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO ONLY REPORTED RAIN AND PRESSURES RISING WITH LIGHT WINDS.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KNOTS. SINCE WE DO NOT HAVE
ENOUGH VISIBLE IMAGES AT THIS TIME...WE ARE KEEPING ODILE AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THIS ADVISORY. THE DEPRESSION MOST LIKELY
WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.
BECAUSE IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER...THE ESTIMATES OF THE
INITIAL MOTION HAVE BEEN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. I HAVE USED CONTINUITY TO
LOCATE THE CENTER BUT I WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE
CENTER HAS MOVED INLAND AND IS DISSIPATING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST
UNTIL DISSIPATION LATER TODAY OR MONDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/1500Z 19.5N 105.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 19.8N 106.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 13/1200Z 20.0N 107.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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