ATL: Marco : Tropical Depression - Discussion

[JonathanBelles]

How do you have 65mph winds in an area 10 miles wide of 40mph?

[Chacor]

That's some pretty deep convection.

[Category 5]

That's some pretty deep convection.

It will be a rough 10 minutes wherever this makes landfall.

[HURAKAN]

Unfortunately we will never know exactly what was its real intensity.

[Chacor]

With TS-force wind radii of only 10 nm in all quadrants, the area of TS-force winds in Marco is only 314 sq nm or 416 square miles.

To put this into perspective, Jacksonville is 885 sq mi big, more than double that.

[alan1961]

Good job this didn't have more time over water, its really giving it some convection wise just approaching the coast

[jinftl]

34kt winds extend out 10 miles in each direction.....or a diameter of approx 20 miles....from the center...with the core of strongest winds (50kt) to the NE and SE of the center...this will equate to approx 2-3 hour long event in the areas of the direct path (20-mile wind field, moving 8 miles per hour = 2.5 hours).


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 96.1W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 5NE 5SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.

How do you have 65mph winds in an area 10 miles wide of 40mph?

[HURAKAN]

Little Marco wants to grow up!

[Epsilon_Fan]

it looks to be "expanding" as it approaches the coast, if you can say that The blob of thunderstorms to the east was bigger for a little while

[Category 5]

Severe thunderstorm warning for the immediate coast.

[wxman57]

I can no longer see any rotation in visible satellite loops. I think Marco may have lost its LLC overnight. Outflow boundaries are pushing away from the center in the southern half of the storm.

[AJC3]

Although not a named storm, TD #4 from 2000, which formed just off of our coast was pretty tiny as well.

[Sanibel]

We should get a pressure reading on landfall. Must have dropped under 998 during that burst. Storm was changing gears and would have gotten stronger with more Gulf ahead if it had it.

[wxman57]

We should get a pressure reading on landfall. Must have dropped under 998 during that burst. Storm was changing gears and would have gotten stronger with more Gulf ahead if it had it.

There won't be any pressure reading on landfall as there are no instruments in its path. Center, if there is one (and I doubt it) is moving ashore now. No recon today - at least no recon flying into where any center might be. It's too late.

[Ed Mahmoud]

We should get a pressure reading on landfall. Must have dropped under 998 during that burst. Storm was changing gears and would have gotten stronger with more Gulf ahead if it had it.

There won't be any pressure reading on landfall as there are no instruments in its path. Center, if there is one (and I doubt it) is moving ashore now. No recon today - at least no recon flying into where any center might be. It's too late.

Never fear, GFS, Euro and Canadian all agree you'll have something else to track this time next week.

[cycloneye]

No need for a plane to go.

320
WTNT33 KNHC 071442
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARCO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

...MARCO MAKES LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1442.shtml

[CrazyC83]

My guess is 60 kt for the landfall intensity based on the improved cloud deck. We'll never know for sure since that would be in one small area.

[cycloneye]

My guess is 60 kt for the landfall intensity based on the improved cloud deck. We'll never know for sure since that would be in one small area.

Best Track at Post Analysis will confirm or not what you say about intensity.

[Chacor]

Convection warmed towards landfall so I do not buy intensification.

[CrazyC83]

My guess is 60 kt for the landfall intensity based on the improved cloud deck. We'll never know for sure since that would be in one small area.

Best Track at Post Analysis will confirm or not what you say about intensity.

It's almost impossible to tell though. Dvorak is useless with such a tiny storm, so we pretty much have to guess based on yesterday's Recon extrapolated.