TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
1000 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2008
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM TUXPAN
SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST OR ABOUT
140 MILES...220 KM...EAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF
MEXICO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR
TO LANDFALL.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHER MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...NORTHERN OAXACA...AND TABASCO.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...19.0 N...94.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
ATL : Marco : Tropical Storm Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2008
HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...INDICATING
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. A RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT QUITE AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN A REGION OF
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH DEVELOPING OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY...SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE QUITE WARM.
ACCORDINGLY...SOME STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO THE
CYCLONE REACHING LAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ONCE INLAND OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF MEXICO...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
280/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE
SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH
LANDFALL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/1500Z 19.0N 94.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 19.4N 95.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 19.6N 96.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 19.7N 97.4W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2008
HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...INDICATING
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. A RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT QUITE AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN A REGION OF
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH DEVELOPING OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY...SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE QUITE WARM.
ACCORDINGLY...SOME STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO THE
CYCLONE REACHING LAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ONCE INLAND OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF MEXICO...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
280/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE
SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH
LANDFALL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/1500Z 19.0N 94.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 19.4N 95.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 19.6N 96.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 19.7N 97.4W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL : Marco : Tropical Storm Advisories
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
2100 UTC MON OCT 06 2008
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO
SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO
PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 94.7W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 25NE 15SE 0SW 25NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 94.7W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 94.5W
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.0N 95.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.5N 97.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.0N 98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 94.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
WTNT43 KNHC 062048
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
500 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2008
A TIMELY MISSION FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS...
TASKED WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE...REVEALS THAT THE DEPRESSION
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A
TROPICAL STORM. PEAK SFMR WINDS WERE 53 KT AND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS WERE 61 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
ABOUT 55 KT. SINCE THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT ARE
SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. MARCO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...AND ACCORDINGLY A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND
CONTINUES...IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WARNING LATER
THIS EVENING.
INITIAL MOTION...295/9...IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATE. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH CHANGE IN
HEADING OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS DUE TO A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF MARCO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.
WE THANK THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON FOR THEIR QUICK
RESPONSE TO OUR SHORT-NOTICE REQUEST TO INVESTIGATE THIS STORM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/2100Z 19.5N 94.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 20.0N 95.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 20.5N 97.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 21.0N 98.5W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
2100 UTC MON OCT 06 2008
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO
SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO
PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 94.7W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 25NE 15SE 0SW 25NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 94.7W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 94.5W
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.0N 95.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.5N 97.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.0N 98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 94.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
WTNT43 KNHC 062048
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
500 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2008
A TIMELY MISSION FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS...
TASKED WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE...REVEALS THAT THE DEPRESSION
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A
TROPICAL STORM. PEAK SFMR WINDS WERE 53 KT AND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS WERE 61 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
ABOUT 55 KT. SINCE THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT ARE
SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. MARCO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...AND ACCORDINGLY A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND
CONTINUES...IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WARNING LATER
THIS EVENING.
INITIAL MOTION...295/9...IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATE. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH CHANGE IN
HEADING OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS DUE TO A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF MARCO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.
WE THANK THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON FOR THEIR QUICK
RESPONSE TO OUR SHORT-NOTICE REQUEST TO INVESTIGATE THIS STORM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/2100Z 19.5N 94.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 20.0N 95.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 20.5N 97.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 21.0N 98.5W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL : Marco : Tropical Storm Advisories
WTNT33 KNHC 062346
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARCO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
700 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008
...SMALL TROPICAL STORM MARCO CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK ACROSS THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM
CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST OR ABOUT
80 MILES...130 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.
MARCO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND MARCO COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE COAST.
MARCO IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ONLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
MARCO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...NORTHERN OAXACA...AND TABASCO.
REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...19.7 N...95.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARCO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
700 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008
...SMALL TROPICAL STORM MARCO CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK ACROSS THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM
CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST OR ABOUT
80 MILES...130 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.
MARCO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND MARCO COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE COAST.
MARCO IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ONLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
MARCO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...NORTHERN OAXACA...AND TABASCO.
REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...19.7 N...95.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL : Marco : Tropical Storm Advisories
WTNT33 KNHC 070231
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARCO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
1000 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008
...MARCO MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM
CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...105 KM...NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 155 MILES...
245 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.
MARCO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND MARCO COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE COAST.
MARCO REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ONLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
MARCO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL MEXICAN STATES OF NORTHERN VERACRUZ...NORTHERN PUEBLA...
HILDALGO...AND SAN LUIS POTOSI.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...19.8 N...95.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2008
MINIATURE MARCO HAS MAINTAINED ONE SMALL COLD-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER...ABOUT THE SIZE OF THE STATE OF DELAWARE...OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING KEPT
AT 55 KT IN LINE WITH THE LAST AIR FORCE RECON DATA...EVEN THOUGH
DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB. I HAVE WORKED SOME TINY TYPHOONS IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC
BEFORE...BUT HORIZONTALLY-CHALLENGED MARCO COULD BE THE SMALLEST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 295/06. MARCO HAS REMAINED ON THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK...SO THERE IS NO CHANGE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. MARCO IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND MAKE
LANDFALL IN 18 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.
ALTHOUGH MARCO MAY BE SMALL IN STATURE...IT HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SMALL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
ONLY HAS A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 4 NMI. SMALL SYSTEMS
LIKE MARCO CAN SPIN UP QUICKLY...BUT THEY CAN ALSO SPIN DOWN JUST
AS FAST. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AND
SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 28C UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 18 HOURS.
THEREFORE...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. THE SHIPS MODEL
BRINGS MARCO UP TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 12 HOURS...AND UP TO 71
KT IN 18 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE TO AGGRESSIVE AT THIS STAGE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STRONGER HWRF AND
THE WEAKER GFDL...WHICH KEEPS MARCO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0300Z 19.8N 95.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 20.2N 96.4W 60 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 20.7N 97.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
36HR VT 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARCO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
1000 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008
...MARCO MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM
CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...105 KM...NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 155 MILES...
245 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.
MARCO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND MARCO COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE COAST.
MARCO REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ONLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
MARCO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL MEXICAN STATES OF NORTHERN VERACRUZ...NORTHERN PUEBLA...
HILDALGO...AND SAN LUIS POTOSI.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...19.8 N...95.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2008
MINIATURE MARCO HAS MAINTAINED ONE SMALL COLD-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER...ABOUT THE SIZE OF THE STATE OF DELAWARE...OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING KEPT
AT 55 KT IN LINE WITH THE LAST AIR FORCE RECON DATA...EVEN THOUGH
DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB. I HAVE WORKED SOME TINY TYPHOONS IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC
BEFORE...BUT HORIZONTALLY-CHALLENGED MARCO COULD BE THE SMALLEST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 295/06. MARCO HAS REMAINED ON THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK...SO THERE IS NO CHANGE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. MARCO IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND MAKE
LANDFALL IN 18 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.
ALTHOUGH MARCO MAY BE SMALL IN STATURE...IT HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SMALL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
ONLY HAS A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 4 NMI. SMALL SYSTEMS
LIKE MARCO CAN SPIN UP QUICKLY...BUT THEY CAN ALSO SPIN DOWN JUST
AS FAST. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AND
SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 28C UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 18 HOURS.
THEREFORE...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. THE SHIPS MODEL
BRINGS MARCO UP TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 12 HOURS...AND UP TO 71
KT IN 18 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE TO AGGRESSIVE AT THIS STAGE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STRONGER HWRF AND
THE WEAKER GFDL...WHICH KEEPS MARCO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0300Z 19.8N 95.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 20.2N 96.4W 60 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 20.7N 97.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
36HR VT 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL : Marco : Tropical Storm Advisories
Tropical Storm MARCO Public Advisory
000
WTNT33 KNHC 070545
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARCO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
100 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008
...VERY SMALL TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM
CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST OR ABOUT 130
MILES...215 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.
MARCO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND MARCO
COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.
MARCO IS AN EXTREMELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ONLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
MARCO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL MEXICAN STATES OF NORTHERN VERACRUZ...NORTHERN PUEBLA...
HILDALGO...AND SAN LUIS POTOSI.
REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...19.9 N...95.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
000
WTNT33 KNHC 070545
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARCO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
100 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008
...VERY SMALL TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM
CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST OR ABOUT 130
MILES...215 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.
MARCO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND MARCO
COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.
MARCO IS AN EXTREMELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ONLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
MARCO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL MEXICAN STATES OF NORTHERN VERACRUZ...NORTHERN PUEBLA...
HILDALGO...AND SAN LUIS POTOSI.
REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...19.9 N...95.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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TheEuropean
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1793
- Age: 58
- Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:17 pm
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Re: ATL : Marco : Tropical Storm Advisories
000
WTNT33 KNHC 070850
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARCO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
400 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008
...MARCO NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO...SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL LATER
TODAY...
AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF VERACRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM CABO ROJO
SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...170 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.
MARCO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARCO SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND MARCO
COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.
MARCO IS AN EXTREMELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ONLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
MARCO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES... WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICAN STATES OF NORTHERN VERACRUZ...NORTHERN
PUEBLA... HILDALGO...AND SAN LUIS POTOSI.
REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...20.1 N...96.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT43 KNHC 070852
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 07 2008
WITH NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE DATA SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...
THE INTENSITY OF MARCO IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE. THE OVERALL
SATELLITE PRESENTATION LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS WHEN THE AIRCRAFT
WAS THERE LAST...SO I'LL LEAVE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 55 KT.
THE CYCLONE HAS PROBABLY ANOTHER 6-9 HOURS OVER WATER...SO SOME
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN CALLING
FOR MARCO TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. AS WE HAVE
NOTED PREVIOUSLY...HOWEVER...SMALL CYCLONES ARE PARTICULARLY
SUBJECT TO LARGE AND MOSTLY UNPREDICTABLE CHANGES IN INTENSITY.
EXAMINATION OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 0100 UTC
SUGGESTS THAT THE RADIAL EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS
EXCEEDINGLY SMALL...PERHAPS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 NMI.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/7. A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SEPARATES MARCO FROM A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MARCO ON
BASICALLY THE SAME TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH I WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF THE TRACK BENDS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...WHICH WOULD
KEEP MARCO OVER WATER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE UKMET AND BAM GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0900Z 20.1N 96.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 20.5N 97.1W 60 KT...JUST INLAND
24HR VT 08/0600Z 20.9N 98.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT33 KNHC 070850
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARCO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
400 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008
...MARCO NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO...SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL LATER
TODAY...
AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF VERACRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM CABO ROJO
SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...170 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.
MARCO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARCO SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND MARCO
COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.
MARCO IS AN EXTREMELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ONLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
MARCO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES... WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICAN STATES OF NORTHERN VERACRUZ...NORTHERN
PUEBLA... HILDALGO...AND SAN LUIS POTOSI.
REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...20.1 N...96.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT43 KNHC 070852
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 07 2008
WITH NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE DATA SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...
THE INTENSITY OF MARCO IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE. THE OVERALL
SATELLITE PRESENTATION LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS WHEN THE AIRCRAFT
WAS THERE LAST...SO I'LL LEAVE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 55 KT.
THE CYCLONE HAS PROBABLY ANOTHER 6-9 HOURS OVER WATER...SO SOME
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN CALLING
FOR MARCO TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. AS WE HAVE
NOTED PREVIOUSLY...HOWEVER...SMALL CYCLONES ARE PARTICULARLY
SUBJECT TO LARGE AND MOSTLY UNPREDICTABLE CHANGES IN INTENSITY.
EXAMINATION OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 0100 UTC
SUGGESTS THAT THE RADIAL EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS
EXCEEDINGLY SMALL...PERHAPS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 NMI.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/7. A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SEPARATES MARCO FROM A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MARCO ON
BASICALLY THE SAME TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH I WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF THE TRACK BENDS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...WHICH WOULD
KEEP MARCO OVER WATER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE UKMET AND BAM GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0900Z 20.1N 96.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 20.5N 97.1W 60 KT...JUST INLAND
24HR VT 08/0600Z 20.9N 98.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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cycloneye
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- Posts: 139086
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL : Marco : Tropical Storm Advisories
WTNT33 KNHC 071131
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARCO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
700 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008
...MARCO EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES...125 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.
MARCO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARCO SHOULD MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND MARCO
COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.
MARCO IS AN EXTREMELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ONLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
MARCO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES... WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICAN STATES OF NORTHERN VERACRUZ...NORTHERN
PUEBLA... HILDALGO...AND SAN LUIS POTOSI.
REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...20.2 N...96.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARCO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
700 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008
...MARCO EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES...125 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.
MARCO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARCO SHOULD MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND MARCO
COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.
MARCO IS AN EXTREMELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ONLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
MARCO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES... WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICAN STATES OF NORTHERN VERACRUZ...NORTHERN
PUEBLA... HILDALGO...AND SAN LUIS POTOSI.
REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...20.2 N...96.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL : Marco : Tropical Storm Advisories
320
WTNT33 KNHC 071442
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARCO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008
...MARCO MAKES LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR MEXICO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD
TO VERACRUZ. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS JUST INLAND OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 80
MILES...130 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN AND ABOUT 55 MILES...90
KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ.
MARCO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A WESTWARD
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MARCO WILL BE MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER
MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND MARCO
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
MARCO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...19.9 N...96.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
WTNT43 KNHC 071446
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 07 2008
HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARCO HAS
MADE LANDFALL AND THE CENTER IS JUST INLAND OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL
MEXICO. THE MOTION HAS BEEN AROUND 270/6 OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SINCE THE MOUNTAINS OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO ARE QUITE HIGH...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. A 24
HOUR FORECAST POSITION IS SHOWN BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL LAST THAT LONG. IN
FACT...MARCO COULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
STILL...THE REMNANTS OF MARCO COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/1500Z 19.9N 96.6W 55 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 08/0000Z 20.3N 97.9W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 08/1200Z 20.3N 98.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
WTNT33 KNHC 071442
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARCO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008
...MARCO MAKES LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR MEXICO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD
TO VERACRUZ. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS JUST INLAND OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 80
MILES...130 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN AND ABOUT 55 MILES...90
KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ.
MARCO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A WESTWARD
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MARCO WILL BE MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER
MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND MARCO
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
MARCO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...19.9 N...96.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
WTNT43 KNHC 071446
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 07 2008
HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARCO HAS
MADE LANDFALL AND THE CENTER IS JUST INLAND OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL
MEXICO. THE MOTION HAS BEEN AROUND 270/6 OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SINCE THE MOUNTAINS OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO ARE QUITE HIGH...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. A 24
HOUR FORECAST POSITION IS SHOWN BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL LAST THAT LONG. IN
FACT...MARCO COULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
STILL...THE REMNANTS OF MARCO COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/1500Z 19.9N 96.6W 55 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 08/0000Z 20.3N 97.9W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 08/1200Z 20.3N 98.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
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